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232 days

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1…5681011

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    #212
    Gavin "shels"
    Registered Users Posts: 17,965 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Earendil wrote: »
    That hotel facing the train station is a an experience isn’t it!

    And the off-license nearby :D everyone stocking up for their respective train journeys out of Cheltenham :D


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    #213
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Good analysis of Leopardstown from Ruby Walsh.



    You have to love when they read out the tweets :D


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    #214
    WicklowBravee
    Registered Users Posts: 47 ✭WicklowBravee


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    You have to love when they read out the tweets :D

    Are you Liam D? Lol. Vautour profile picture, same way that you write, praising Defi, crabbing Chacun haha


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    #215
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    WicklowBravee wrote: »
    Are you Liam D? Lol. Vautour profile picture, same way that you write, praising Defi, crabbing Chacun haha


    Excuse me, I love Chacun ;)


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    #216
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Anyone else reckon Couer Sublime could be the bolter on the day in the CH?
    Still a big price, Davy reported him lame the last day, hardly a vintage renewal etc etc


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    #217
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    232 Days
    19 Hours
    45 Minutes
    21 Seconds to Cheltenham

    Just sayin...........................;)




    33 Days 21 hours now!
    That OP don't seem that long ago! :eek:


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    #218
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    Anyone else reckon Couer Sublime could be the bolter on the day in the CH?
    Still a big price, Davy reported him lame the last day, hardly a vintage renewal etc etc

    5 year olds and in particular Triumph horses have a bad record in the race. It can happen but it is not usual. In saying that Espoir D'allen was a 5yo, but he wasn't a triumph horse. Katchit was the last Triumph winner to follow up, so the trends say no.


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    #219
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Treacysennicorthy not going. I wonder are they considering a lash at the Irish National?

    https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=No-Cheltenham-bid-as-home-options-considered-for-Treacysenniscorthy&prid=206676


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    #220
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    One Month!!!!!!!


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    #221
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Great time of the year this


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    #222
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    BumperD wrote: »
    Great time of the year this


    It's a magical time Bump!!


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    #223
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    21 more sleeps … bitches.


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    #224
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    21 more sleeps … bitches.

    Unless you have a baby, like me, so its more like 11 more sleeps.


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    #225
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    3 weeks
    THREE WEEKS!


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    #226
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    It is beginning to look a lot like Cheltenham, everywhere we go...….

    It is now officially on. This is the last weekend before the penultimate weekend before the start of Cheltenham. Over the next few weeks everyone will be party to the various musings and waffles emanating from the preview nights. Jockeys and trainers and pundits will be pouring verbal vomit out every orifice... whispering kiss and tell me nots of fancies and " sure things" for the festival. People will be spewing out " bankers" and of course the infamous "targets" of the bigger stables' novice chasers and hurdlers....

    Please please please… be careful out there. The amount of unadulterated garbage you are going to hear in the next 2 weeks needs to come with a serious health warning. The winking and nodding brigade are in full swing. There will be arguments over who is going where, people will be quoting " on good authority".

    At this stage all the value has been sucked out of the prices. You could quite possibly get a better price on the day with your runners. But what is for certain is that the bookies are sauntering around the country with massive hard ons waiting to absolutely hammer and pound your ass at every opportunity, this is their time of year. They love the indecision of trainers to declare targets and jockey bookings and ground waffle and quoting travel plans and any other unknown piece of information they can to murky the waters.... Don't let them away with this.

    Stick to your gut and your choices. Don't fall foul to indecision and second guessing yourself. You are going to back a few winners.


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    #227
    Gavin "shels"
    Registered Users Posts: 17,965 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    2 weeks and a few hours!!


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    #228
    Earendil
    Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭Earendil


    Gavin "shels" wrote: »
    2 weeks and a few hours!!

    Fcuk off Gav.....your making me do a spazzy grin on the bus to work.


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    #229
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    2 weeks to a great start to the week for team Gigginstown as they get a quick fire double in the first 2 races!


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    #230
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON




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    #231
    Morleystreet
    Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Morleystreet


    375 days to go...

    Sorry Rog - couldn't resist!!!!

    Fingers crossed it's just the 10 days.


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    #232
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    I am going through the RSA all morning and it is really easy to pick holes in all the top of the market. I think a "boil over" is on the cards.

    15 of the last 16 winners had previously had three starts over fences.
    Excludes Minella indo, Allaho, Easy Game,
    The last 13 winners had placed at worst in a Grade 1 or 2 chase.
    Excludes Minella indo, Allaho - neither have ran in a graded chase yet.
    Only 3 six-year-olds have won the RSA Chase since 1978.
    Excludes Allaho, Copperhead, Easy Game
    There has not been a winner over the age of eight since 1992.
    Excludes Faugheen, Black OP, Master Tommytucker
    The last 52 winners all raced during the same calendar year.
    24 of the last 28 winners either won or finished second on their last run before the festival.
    Excludes Champ ( fell ) Battleoverdoyen (fell) ,
    The last three favourites to have won the race were rated over 134 as hurdlers.
    Kind of irrelevant
    Traditional National Hunt breeds have won 22 of the last 24 renewals.
    Excludes - Copperhead- Sulamani is technically a flat sire.

    Now these are only trends and trends are there to be broken, but I would not be diving in after the current skimpy prices available on Allaho and or Minello Indo based on the stats. Neither have even competed in a Graded chase yet. Further negatives on both these horsies is that the Albert Bartlett has not been a great race to throw up next season graded chasers. The only Albert Bartlett winner to turn into a proper chaser was Bob's Worth, that is enough for me to pass on both, especially at 4 and 5 to 1. No thanks.

    At the prices the horse that keep turning up is Slate House. Won the 3m Grade 1 at Kempton and was unlucky not to win the Bet Victor handicap in November. At 16's he looks a much better bet.

    Champ fits all the trends except for his fall last time, which was a really really stupid fall. He was a mile clear at the time. He looks the best horse so I am happy to have a bet on the day at around 5/1, but I am not backing Allaho or Minello Indo, they have it all to prove, including the race trends.


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    #233
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Where do u see Faugheen running Moron


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    #234
    FatRat
    Registered Users Posts: 3,194 ✭✭✭FatRat


    FWIW I've backed Black Op at 20s just recently for the RSA


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    #235
    yaboya1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭yaboya1


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Further negatives on both these horsies is that the Albert Bartlett has not been a great race to throw up next season graded chasers. The only Albert Bartlett winner to turn into a proper chaser was Bob's Worth, that is enough for me to pass on both, especially at 4 and 5 to 1. No thanks.

    5 of the last 10 RSA winners ran in the Albert Bartlett.


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    #236
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    Where do u see Faugheen running Moron

    I doubt he is going to be honest. It is a big ask. He is not being backed either.

    I have just spent the last hours going through the Coral Cup and I am out. What a complete an utter clusterphuck. I will be having a few 5 ew on the day. That race is carnage.


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    #237
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    yaboya1 wrote: »
    5 of the last 10 RSA winners ran in the Albert Bartlett.

    Probably true, but the point I am making is that the winners of the Albert Bartlett
    have a bad record. Most don't even make it as chasers.

    It is not a good trial or anything like it.

    Previous Years
    2019 Minella Indo 6 11-5 Rachael Blackmore 50/1 (Henry De Bromhead)
    2018 Kilbricken Storm 7 11-5 Harry Cobden 33/1 (C L Tizzard)
    2017 Penhill 6 11-5 P Townend 16/1 (W P Mullins)
    2016 Unowhatimeanharry 8 11-5 N D Fehily 11/1 (H Fry)
    2015 Martello Tower 7 11-7 A P Heskin 14/1 (Ms Margaret Mullins)
    2014 Very Wood 5 11-7 P Carberry 33/1 (Noel Meade)
    2013 At Fishers Cross 6 11-7 A P McCoy 11/8Fav (Miss Rebecca Curtis)
    2012 Brindisi Breeze 6 11-7 Campell Gillies 7/1 (Miss L Russell)
    2011 Bobs Worth 6 11-7 B J Geraghty 15/8Fav (Nicky Henderson)
    2010 Berties Dream 7 11-7 A E Lynch 33/1 (Paul John Gilligan)
    2009 Weapon's Amnesty 6 11-7 D N Russell 8/1 (C Byrnes)
    2008 Nenuphar Collonges 7 11-7 R Thornton 9-1 (Alan King)
    2007 Wichita Lineman 6 11-7 A P McCoy 11/8Fav (Jonjo O'Neill)
    2006 Black Jack Ketchum 7 11-7 A P McCoy 1/1Fav (Jonjo O'Neill)
    2005 Moulin Riche 5 11-7 R Thornton 9/1 (F Doumen)


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    #238
    yaboya1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭yaboya1


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Probably true, but the point I am making is that the winners of the Albert Bartlett

    Not probably. Definitely. It's a fact.
    You said horses from the Albert Bartlett, not winners.
    I'd say it's very unlikely you'll find another hurdle race with a better strike rate in the RSA.


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    #239
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    yaboya1 wrote: »
    Not probably. Definitely. It's a fact.
    You said horses from the Albert Bartlett, not winners.
    I'd say it's very unlikely you'll find another hurdle race with a better strike rate in the RSA.

    In fairness Yaboya1 you always are finding a reason to pick holes in someone else's assessment of a race, it gets tiring to be honest. I don't think it worth splitting hairs over, the facts are the facts, since 2005 only 3 Albert Bartlett winners have turned into decent chasers, none since Bob's Worth. Santini was placed 2 years ago.

    5 out of 10 winners probably did run in the Albert Bartlett. Using this as a measure the following also ran in last year's renewal;-

    1st Minello Indo ( has not yet contested a graded chase)
    2ndCommander of the Fleet ( now only a 6 year old, another negative)
    3rdAllaho ( discussed above)
    4thDickie River ( who?)
    5thLisnager Oscar ( has proved uselsss over fences)
    6thDerrinross ( ask the Dempseys, in fact I will , not entered anyway)
    7thSalasaretta ( I doubt she is good enough)
    etc etc including Aye Aye Charlie, Cap York and Ask Ben , the rest pulled up and are hard to fancy.

    Given that you think that there is a 5 in 10 (50%) chance that one of these has relevant chance I am happy to overlook this statistical fact you have mentioned.

    It may be that both Alloho and Minello Indo upset the trends, I just don't think so. Especially at their prices.


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    #240
    yaboya1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭yaboya1


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    In fairness Yaboya1 you always are finding a reason to pick holes in someone else's assessment of a race, it gets tiring to be honest. I don't think it worth splitting hairs over, the facts are the facts, since 2005 only 3 Albert Bartlett winners have turned into decent chasers, none since Bob's Worth. Santini was placed 2 years ago.

    5 out of 10 winners probably did run in the Albert Bartlett. Using this as a measure the following also ran in last year's renewal;-

    1st Minello Indo ( has not yet contested a graded chase)
    2ndCommander of the Fleet ( now only a 6 year old, another negative)
    3rdAllaho ( discussed above)
    4thDickie River ( who?)
    5thLisnager Oscar ( has proved uselsss over fences)
    6thDerrinross ( ask the Dempseys, in fact I will , not entered anyway)
    7thSalasaretta ( I doubt she is good enough)
    etc etc including Aye Aye Charlie, Cap York and Ask Ben , the rest pulled up and are hard to fancy.

    Given that you think that there is a 5 in 10 (50%) chance that one of these has relevant chance I am happy to overlook this statistical fact you have mentioned.

    It may be that both Alloho and Minello Indo upset the trends, I just don't think so. Especially at their prices.

    I'm not splitting hairs.
    You said it wasn't a good trial or anything like it.
    Given it produced 5 of the last 10 winners, I'd say most people would agree it's been a pretty good trial.
    So your statement is misleading. And Allaho or Minella Indo won't be upsetting the trend of running in the Albert Bartlett if they win. They'll be continuing its previous success.
    They may be upsetting other trends, but nothing to do with the Albert Bartlett.


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    #241
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    yaboya1 wrote: »
    I'm not splitting hairs.
    You said it wasn't a good trial or anything like it.
    Given it produced 5 of the last 10 winners, I'd say most people would agree it's been a pretty good trial.
    So your statement is misleading. And Allaho or Minella Indo won't be upsetting the trend of running in the Albert Bartlett if they win. They'll be continuing its previous success.
    They may be upsetting other trends, but nothing to do with the Albert Bartlett.

    Garbage, you are just arguing for the sake of it.

    Given the fact that only 2 AB winners have gone on to win an RSA since 2005 you have to admit it is a bad trial. ( I know you won't btw, but you are allowed to be wrong sonetimes, like in this instance:pac::pac::pac:)

    Do you want a spade?


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