Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

Kermit.de.frog · 01-03-2020 12:05AM

Phil.x wrote: »

Am I right in saying Italy had 200 cases and now have over 1000!
This isn't going too well now is it.

It really isn't.

France, Italy and Germany have gone from next to no cases to escalating crisis in the space of a week.

DeanAustin · 01-03-2020 12:06AM

tom1ie wrote: »

Jesus that’s a tough one.........is mourinhoitis curable?

It lasts 2-3 years but ends in absolute devastation. Much worse than coronavirus because it primarily affects males between 18-35.

sdanseo · 01-03-2020 12:06AM

surfwaterfords wrote: »

We are looking at the potential of 106,085 dead in Ireland (1.5% of the population) with 283,710 people critically ill needing assisted breathing to stay alive, many of which might have life long effects after the virus is gone!

Coronavirus cases worldwide: 86,023 | Deaths: 2,942 | Critical 7,868 (taken from here: worldmeters dot info coronavirus)
Assumption 10% of critical are going to die.

Puts death rate at 4.33%

70% expecteded to catch the virus according to theatlantic dot com article if you Google (I wasn't allowed post a link as a new user).

Island of Ireland has apprx 7,000,000 people living on it.

That means 4,900,000 people catch the virus.

Lets assume 50% of cases are actually so mild they are not caught in the numbers above but assume all deaths are captured.

We are then talking about 106,085 dead or 1.5% of the population?

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342

Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987

By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer

Just some context.

Sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/deaths/

tom1ie · 01-03-2020 12:06AM

BanditLuke wrote: »

No. It just goes on to infect the next host and destroy it.

Lol! With bland defensive displays eventually grinding you down and destroying you?

Away With The Fairies · 01-03-2020 12:07AM

tom1ie wrote: »

Why? Are you in the “at risk” category?

No but if I catch anything, isn't it best practice to stay at home instead of infecting everybody else?

tom1ie · 01-03-2020 12:08AM

DeanAustin wrote: »

It lasts 2-3 years but ends in absolute devastation. Much worse than coronavirus because it primarily affects males between 18-35.

Is there not a first year that gets your hopes up with silverware? Maybe this years virus has mutated?

BanditLuke · 01-03-2020 12:08AM

Phil.x wrote: »

Am I right in saying Italy had 200 cases and now have over 1000!
This isn't going too well now is it.

They can only do X amount of testing in a day also so in reality it could be multiples of that number.

Man Vs ManUre · 01-03-2020 12:08AM

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

Signore Fancy Pants · 01-03-2020 12:09AM

gmisk wrote: »

I thought of that 20% infected the majority would just have flu like symptoms? Obviously it will be more serious for some e.g. small percentage will get pneunonia, elderly or those with pre existing conditions are more risk obviously.

Just quoting what he said.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/eight-questions-coronavirus-answered-975422

cameramonkey · 01-03-2020 12:09AM

tom1ie wrote: »

Yeah 14 days was a max. But I don’t know what they are saying it is now. You are contagious during the incubation period.

i don't think you are not from day one, your viral load needs to be increased to be contagious.

CinemaGuy45 · 01-03-2020 12:10AM

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

Great attitude.

Why not stay off work Monday and do everybody there a favour.

Kermit.de.frog · 01-03-2020 12:10AM

sdanseo wrote: »

Just some context.

What do you think will happen to health services all over the world if they have an epidemic like China or South Korea given the abnormally high hopsitalisation rate of carriers of the virus?

People are not diagnosing the problem correctly.

What do you think a small percentage of the issues in Italy would do to our health service?

What do you think it would do to society here if people in Dublin were told there is over 1,000 cases and 29 people dead in a week?

Some are not grasping the full scope of the problem.

ThePopehimself · 01-03-2020 12:10AM

BanditLuke wrote: »

The HSE and government seem to be more interested in appealing for people to remain calm instead of doing all they can to avert this crisis. Here's a crazy thought, people would be a lot calmer if they had put a stop on flights coming in from a known virus hotspot a few days ago.

They've been at that crap for 5 weeks now...the 'don't panic' crap ...meanwhile they let it in on a Red Carpet. 'Contain' ??? - my Ars£.

Cupatae · 01-03-2020 12:10AM

sdanseo wrote: »

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342

Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987

By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart diseas of circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer

Just some context.

Morpheus is that you ?

Kaisr Sose · 01-03-2020 12:11AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

No but if I catch anything, isn't it best practice to stay at home instead of infecting everybody else?

If you catch it... I take it you have not caught it yet so why think like you have it?

Drumpot · 01-03-2020 12:11AM

Just back from my mum’s to make sure she’s ok and to let her know I’m here if she needs me. If anybody has any friends or family who they think might be concerned with this news maybe give them a text or call (tomorrow?) just to maybe offer then some support.

tom1ie · 01-03-2020 12:12AM

cameramonkey wrote: »

i don't think you are not from day one, your viral load needs to be increased to be contagious.

You are contagious from day 1 (albeit barely) but increases as the virus multiplies in your body.
That’s my understanding on it from reading up on it since early December to be honest!

fritzelly · 01-03-2020 12:12AM

tom1ie wrote: »

Source? Your contagious during the 14 day incubation period. That’s a fact since November/December.

The "facts" about being contagious during the incubation period are not fact

When you get infected the virus needs time to incubate for you to become contagious. Putting your hand on an infected area then wiping your mouth does not suddenly make you contagious

Couple of reports for you.
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-many-questions-and-some-answers-2020022719004#q4
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

tom1ie · 01-03-2020 12:12AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Just back from my mum’s to make sure she’s ok and to let her know I’m here if she needs me. If anybody has any friends or family who they think might be concerned with this news maybe give them a text or call (tomorrow?) just to maybe offer then some support.

That’s a good shout.

thebaz · 01-03-2020 12:12AM

sdanseo wrote: »

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342

Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987

By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer

Just some context.

Sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/deaths/

best post here - context is right - but, panic sells newspapers

the butcher · 01-03-2020 12:12AM

From the looks of the schools that went on trips around the infected areas of northern Italy, most arrived home last week. Reports of incubation were up to a max of 14 days (but small % even higher reported). If Italy can go from 14 cases on to over 1000 in 8 days, I think things here will look very different by Sunday next week, unless we can slow the spread similar to the UK. It's only buying us some time at this stage, we will get more cases and as Dr John Campbell has said recently, it will come in waves.

Kaisr Sose · 01-03-2020 12:13AM

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

If that is a joke, wishing ill on others so you benefit is not that funny

tom1ie · 01-03-2020 12:14AM

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

Jesus. Good man.

sdanseo · 01-03-2020 12:15AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What do you think will happen to health services all over the world if they have an epidemic like China or South Korea given the abnormally high hopsitalisation rate of carriers of the virus?

People are not diagnosing the problem correctly.

What do you think a small percentage of the issues in Italy would do to our health service?

What do you think it would do to society here if people in Dublin were told there is over 1,000 cases and 29 people dead in a week?

Some are not grasping the full scope of the problem.

2 caveats on my numbers - they divide actual deaths by actual cases and ignore existing who may succumb so are imperfect but we are long enough in now (2 months) for the trend to be rather consistent.
Also, I'm assuming slow enough spread that people are cared for. But not more so than the existing figures in other countries have had to deal with so far.

In 2 or 3 weeks time we could well be told that a similar proportion of our population (around 8% of Italy's) is affected in the same way.
That'd be maybe 80 cases and 2 deaths.

Again context. 4 people died in car crashes in the last 72 hours.
By the same rates as my quoted post, in those same 72 hours 174 people also died of other diseases.
406 people in the week you mentioned.

cameramonkey · 01-03-2020 12:15AM

tom1ie wrote: »

You are contagious from day 1 (albeit barely) but increases as the virus multiplies in your body.
That’s my understanding on it from reading up on it since early December to be honest!

My understanding is that it takes a few days at least to be contagious, it follows a similar pattern to other viral infections. i dont see for instance how say two hours after you got infected how your body would produce enough viral load to infect another person.

HairySalmon · 01-03-2020 12:16AM

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Hope we get a load more cases tomorrow so that we don’t have to go to work on Monday.

I move to Dublin and start a new job Monday week. I won’t have a leg to stand on if things get bad quickly!

billybonkers · 01-03-2020 12:16AM

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

all about the mane · 01-03-2020 12:16AM

sdanseo wrote: »

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342

Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987

By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer

Just some context.

Sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/deaths/

Someone actually talking sense

all about the mane · 01-03-2020 12:16AM

billybonkers wrote: »

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

are you delighted?

Fr_Dougal · 01-03-2020 12:17AM

billybonkers wrote: »

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

Source?

Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

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