new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 05:58PM

wylo wrote: »

Its just impossible at this stage to give death rate, because if you look only at closed cases which is 10% death rate that does not account for the possible 10s of 1000s of "closed" cases where people in perhaps December or January just got what they thought was a "bad dose", recovered and thought nothing more of it till news started getting out about it, especially younger people who believed they'd no reason to worry.

For all we know Ireland might even already have closed cases.

that's true, the unreported cases are the big mistery but as we go along more and more actual data is being filed. The % rates are starting to become more consistent. Don't forget that deaths can also go unreported

fritzelly · 23-02-2020 06:00PM

Another death in Italy

That vegan ad is genius

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231618631487893505

Duke of Url · 23-02-2020 06:00PM

Ludo wrote: »

Isn't it one data set with the unknowns removed in the second set of figures?

No.

His first one is a data-set around all total cases 78000 peace’s of data.

His second one is closed cases . 25800 total pieces of data

If a person uses a . Mic uses B...... someone uses B data Mic will use A.

Pointless

He’s saying the death rate is 3-10 %

It can either be 3 or 10 % depending which data set you use.

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 06:01PM

BloodBath wrote: »

This again? It's still a number n in the equation that has a massive effect on the final number. Just because you can't assign a value to it currently doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It's existence can and only will reduce the death rate.
For unresolved cases the number of infected is not a static number. You are assuming that number and the number of recoveries doesn't also go up in somewhat the same proportion as deaths. I'd imagine serious testing needs to be done to even close a case on a recovery so there's a lag on data there. Where as death data is more readily available.

I am not assuming anything, i copy/paste numbers from an official source.

Get on to them if you don't like them. There is nothing esle for you to add. They are stats, Key Indicators

BloodBath · 23-02-2020 06:01PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's true, the unreported cases are the big mistery but as we go along more and more actual data is being filed. The % rates are starting to become more consistent. Don't forget that deaths can also go unreported

Can but are far more unlikely. Clutching at straws now.

BorneTobyWilde · 23-02-2020 06:02PM

Are we not doing right thing to avoid chinese people? Is that not good advice? Thousands of Chinese people in Ireland returned to China for Chinese New Year, and they all returned back to Ireland afterwards.
I know a chinese restaurant that closed for 4 weeks as they went back to China, it will reopen soon, so you think it's fine to go eat there when they open.? Us Irish would risk it just not to offend someone? Geez

CinemaGuy45 · 23-02-2020 06:02PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's true, the unreported cases are the big mistery but as we go along more and more actual data is being filed. The % rates are starting to become more consistent. Don't forget that deaths can also go unreported

Duke of Url · 23-02-2020 06:03PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I reported both for you to understand, but you don't understand stats Everybody else in here get them

Bollox. Your admitting using to different sets.

Stick to one as everyone else is.

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 06:04PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

No.

His first one is a data-set around all total cases 78000 peace’s of data.

His second one is closed cases . 25800 total pieces of data

If a person uses a . Mic uses B...... someone uses B data Mic will use A.

Pointless

He’s saying the death rate is 3-10 %

It can either be 3 or 10 % depending which data set you use.

I'm reporting both stats because i'm being questioned the data.
A death rate is always only calculated on closed cases, possibly all reported cases and no more open cases

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 06:05PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Bollox. Your admitting using to different sets.

Stick to one as everyone else is.

ok, you are trolling
cheers mate, bye

CinemaGuy45 · 23-02-2020 06:07PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Are we not doing right thing to avoid chinese people? Is that not good advice? Thousands of Chinese people in Ireland returned to China for Chinese New Year, and they all returned back to Ireland afterwards.
I know a chinese restaurant that closed for 4 weeks as they went back to China, it will reopen soon, so you think it's fine to go eat there when they open.? Us Irish would risk it just not to offend someone? Geez

Fook that nobody ever died from being offended.:D

BloodBath · 23-02-2020 06:07PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

You think he made a good point there?

The proportion of unreported deaths vs mild recoveries at home would be minuscule. Chinese people like most are very family oriented. (No pun intended)

There aren't going to be many left at home to die unknown to anyone.

Duke of Url · 23-02-2020 06:08PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm reporting both stats because i'm being questioned the data.
A death rate is always only calculated on closed cases, possibly all reported cases and no more open cases

So what’s recovered rate based on?

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 06:09PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

So what’s recovered rate based on?

seriously? LOL

Tesla3 · 23-02-2020 06:09PM

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

It is already here, the infected ones walk with us, serve us food, sit beside us, work with us.

cameramonkey · 23-02-2020 06:10PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Are we not doing right thing to avoid chinese people? Is that not good advice? Thousands of Chinese people in Ireland returned to China for Chinese New Year, and they all returned back to Ireland afterwards.
I know a chinese restaurant that closed for 4 weeks as they went back to China, it will reopen soon, so you think it's fine to go eat there when they open.? Us Irish would risk it just not to offend someone? Geez

At this stage its gone beyond China, I suspect in the coming month new cases outside China will out strip those inside China. Italy I would think is a bigger risk now wit the amount of interconnection. Chines new year waas 25 January so I suspect most people would be well back by now, if you want to be totally sure avoid your Chines restaurant until 14 days after the last person returned from China.

CinemaGuy45 · 23-02-2020 06:11PM

BloodBath wrote: »

You think he made a good point there?

The proportion of unreported deaths vs mild recoveries at home would be minuscule. Chinese people like most are very family oriented. (No pun intended)

There aren't going to be many left at home to die unknown to anyone.

Chinese people have been arrested for daring to spread information on the web.

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 06:12PM

BloodBath wrote: »

You think he made a good point there?

The proportion of unreported deaths vs mild recoveries at home would be minuscule. Chinese people like most are very family oriented. (No pun intended)

source? show us the data
people die everyday, do you think they all get tested for corona virus after they are dead?

mouthful · 23-02-2020 06:12PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

At this stage its gone beyond China, I suspect in the coming month new cases outside China will out strip those inside China. Italy I would think is a bigger risk now wit the amount of interconnection. Chines new year waas 25 January so I suspect most people would be well back by now, if you want to be totally sure avoid your Chines restaurant until 14 days after the last person returned from China.

27 days if this is correct https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

Indestructable · 23-02-2020 06:14PM

Up to 157 cases in Italy now. They are testing like mad over there. Up from 113 earlier. Big decisions to be made in the next day or two re flights to Italy.

cameramonkey · 23-02-2020 06:15PM

mouthful wrote: »

27 days if this is correct https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

If it is correct, it does seem to be an outlier. I think we need to start checking people boarding flights from Italy to here. Or Italy needs to be checking passengers.

BloodBath · 23-02-2020 06:15PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Chinese people have been arrested for daring to spread information on the web.

So what is your point? Conspiracy that they are hiding the true dead numbers? Evidence for that?

Mic 1972 wrote: »

source? show us the data
people die everyday, do you think they all get tested for corona virus after they are dead?

Do I really have to show data on what is a perfectly logical argument?

For the death rate to go up from unreported deaths it would have to outnumber unreported recoveries. How likely do you think that is?

Common sense would tell you that unreported recoveries would far outnumber unreported deaths.

CinemaGuy45 · 23-02-2020 06:16PM

mouthful wrote: »

27 days if this is correct https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation-idUKKCN20G072?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

Nah thats rubbish.

Best thing to do is come to a conclusion and then find evidence that fits the narrative.

Posting stuff like that is scary and if we decide it is not true and say it often enough it will be so.

61GaP-zyu9L._SX425_.jpg

;);)

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 06:17PM

BloodBath wrote:

Do I really have to show data on what is a perfectly logical argument?

yes you do, it's called data analysis LOL

Pulling numbers out of your a** is not an option

Duke of Url · 23-02-2020 06:17PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

seriously? LOL

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm reporting both stats because i'm being questioned the data.
A death rate is always only calculated on closed cases, possibly all reported cases and no more open cases

You said the following

Death rate is always calculated on closed cases = 10%

Is recovery rate also based on closed case? = 90%

Mic 1972 wrote: »

As of today, Recovery rate = 30%

moonlighting_1 · 23-02-2020 06:19PM

Its like something out of a horror movie

BanditLuke · 23-02-2020 06:19PM

Indestructable wrote: »

Up to 157 cases in Italy now. They are testing like mad over there. Up from 113 earlier. Big decisions to be made in the next day or two re flights to Italy.

Two flights touched down from Milan earlier in Dublin where we still have zero checks for the virus, in an international airport. It beggers belief.

BloodBath · 23-02-2020 06:20PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

yes you do, it's called data analysis LOL

Pulling numbers out of your a** is not an option

So you are making the argument that it's possible unreported deaths outnumber unreported recoveries.

I don't need data to show how preposterous that idea is.

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 06:20PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

You said the following

Death rate is always calculated on closed cases = 10%

Is recovery rate also based on closed case?

I reported both, you can see the recovery rate for close cases and for closed+open cases
Personally i wouldn't bother with any stats that contain almost 70% of unknown outcomes in it.

The number of closed cases is increasing and the rate are starting to revel trends, it's good data

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 06:22PM

BloodBath wrote: »

So you are making the argument that it's possible unreported deaths outnumber unreported recoveries.

I don't need data to show how preposterous that idea is.

unreported cases = imaginary number
The official stats don't contain imaginary numbers, clear?

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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