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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    Country Confirmed Deaths Death %
    China 76940 2443 3.18
    Diamond Princess 634 3 0.47
    S. Korea 602 5 0.83
    Japan 146 1 0.68
    Italy 117 2 1.71
    Singapore 89 0 0.00
    Hong Kong 70 2 2.86
    Iran 43 8 18.60
    Thailand 35 0 0.00
    USA 35 0 0.00
    Taiwan 28 1 3.57
    Australia 22 0 0.00
    Malaysia 22 0 0.00
    Germany 16 0 0.00
    Vietnam 16 0 0.00
    U.A.E. 13 0 0.00
    France 12 1 8.33
    Macao 10 0 0.00
    Canada 9 0 0.00
    U.K. 9 0 0.00
    Philippines 3 1 33.33
    India 3 0 0.00
    Russia 2 0 0.00
    Spain 2 0 0.00
    Belgium 1 0 0.00
    Cambodia 1 0 0.00
    Egypt 1 0 0.00
    Finland 1 0 0.00
    Israel 1 0 0.00
    Lebanon 1 0 0.00
    Nepal 1 0 0.00
    Sri Lanka 1 0 0.00
    Sweden 1 0 0.00
    Iraq 1 0 0.00
    Total 78888 2467 3.13

    data taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    cnocbui wrote: »
    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200209/Researchers-reveal-how-long-coronaviruses-persist-on-surfaces-and-a-way-for-inactivation.aspx



    Now given the coolness of the UK and Ireland, and the persistent high humidity, I would think we might have a problem with packages. Donning a pair of gloves and wiping the outside of the package with bleach should do the trick. Tesco sell boxes of disposable vinyl gloves, which are ideal, as they don't rot from bleach, unlike latex ones.


    I have been wiping plastic wraps and boxes with Dettol for the last 2 weeks, it's a pain in the a** tho!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    'Coming soon: Country-specific pages (with live statistics and graphs for each country and region)'

    Worldometers proving to be the best resource on this topic.

    The guys that update that website are really enjoying themselves.... I can see them at it


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    The Diamond Princess?

    So the death Rate is closest to 0.47%

    Yes, 634 is a pretty good sample size but must account for the older age of the passengers too. I believe all 3 passengers who died were in their 80's


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    S.Kor also has (very) recent cases, so can't assume any 'final rate' conclusions, in a situation when half of subjects are only confirmed within recent days.
    The 2nd part, or thereafter of the (2-3wk) illness is usually the problematic time and when additional secondary issues can arise.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Yes, 634 is a pretty good sample size but must account for the older age of the passengers too. I believe all 3 passengers who died were in their 80's

    Too early to say yet on that sample... the third died this morning and 27 remain in a serious condition

    SK also has over 600 cases


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    S.Kor also has (very) recent cases, so can't assume any 'final rate' conclusions, in a situation when half of subjects are only confirmed within recent days.


    That's why the 3% rate doesn't mean anything, too many open cases are counted in that inflate the rate of survival

    The only relevant stats are based on closed cases (deaths + Recovered)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Yes, 634 is a pretty good sample size but must account for the older age of the passengers too. I believe all 3 passengers who died were in their 80's

    I agree with you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    laurah591 wrote: »
    It's impossible to show fatalities rates when we don't know population size. I seriously believe Iran are only testing those in critical condition or near death whereas South Korea are testing everyone.

    I know that. I’ve stated the same multiple times.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12




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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr



    Country Confirmed Deaths Death %
    China 76940 2443 3.18
    You're leaving out the status and likely results of all the tens of thousands of open (pending stats) cases.
    You haven't stated this as a factor when dumping a data table.

    Only 1/3rd have offically recovered so far.

    Until very recently China was adding about 2k per day (which needs 2-3ks for status conclusion), so might even want to exclude all cases (20-30k), within last 2wks when concluding that 3.2% death rate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    I know that. I’ve stated the same multiple times.

    Then why are we discussing it and producing stats on a country by country basis ...


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,452 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    A worry I have here is that we’ve no real government at the minute. I know the admin in hse etc are there but will anyone take responsibility for big decisions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    As of today, Recovery rate = 30%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,598 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    If there are any trends here it is that wealthy nation's with top class infrastructure have a lower death rate and old populations have a higher death rate, beyond that I can draw no conclusions.
    Edit: one more thing, viral load seems like a sensitive factor given the concentration of the outbreak in wuhan


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    You're leaving out the status and likely results of all the tends of thousands of open (pending stats) cases.
    You haven't stated this as a factor when dumping a data table.

    Only 1/3rd have offically recovered so far.

    Until very recently China was adding about 2k per day (which needs 2-3ks for status conclusion), so might even want to exclude all cases (20-30k), within last 2wks when concluding that 3.2% death rate.

    Can you be clearer in that?

    Are you saying to measure total deaths against currently infected?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Can you be clearer in that?
    You can only measure a case when it's run to a final conculsion: of either recovery or not.

    The majority of the cases in (largest data set) China are 'in-progress' with only 30% recovered so far.

    You can't get much clearer than that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    laurah591 wrote: »
    Then why are we discussing it and producing stats on a country by country basis ...

    I’m measure the death rates reported by each country.

    There was a question of Iran’s numbers 18 % death rate is a closer to real estimate because “some” say China are bull****ters.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    You can only measure a case when it's run to a final conculsion: of either recovery or not.

    The majority of the cases in (largest data set) China are 'in-progress' with only 30% recovered so far.

    You can't get much clearer than that.


    Thank you! Finally someone who speaks my language


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    I’m measure the death rates reported by each country. [* in a dynamic, in-progress situaiton *]
    *FYP.

    Others are only reporting (concluded) recovery rates by each country [30%c].


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    Singapore cases seems to be slowing down.
    Give some hope that warm weather can help slow down the virus.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,792 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yes. The air quality is worse in some Irish towns during the winter because of solid fuel use. Wexford and Enniscorthy are particularly bad because the smoke doesn't dissipate due to geographical features. Unfortunately it won't just be people who burn smoky coal who might die.

    Ireland is very windy. It's been blowing hard for weeks now, with barely a few hours of let up. I haven't been in Eniscorthy for decades, but I doubt the recent weeks of wind have passed it by, leaving smoke lingering.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,792 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    gozunda wrote: »
    That HSE Corona page is little better than a wet hanky imho. Useless. No advice or emergency contacts on the page for anyone reporting a possible Coronavirus infection. Ditto no advice at all about staying away from A&E and GP surgeries.

    And again the only 'at risk' groups are those who may have been in "mainland China in the last 14 days" Evidently the HSE believe theres been no spread of infection at all...

    This HSE page shows exactly how under resourced our hospitals are. Figures in red show the numbers waiting on trollies (the HSE hilariously refer to these patients as "trolley waiters"). The increase rate for those waiting to be seen is up approx 20% on this time last year.

    Not a hope in hell patients with severe symptoms or those that may be in need of ICU resources are going to have a decent chance under the current system.

    I recall seeing recently that Ireland's problem is that it spends the money, but gets half the outcome that other European countries get for the same level of expenditure. Everything in Ireland is inefficient and bogged down in the past. The legal system is a mess, the health system is a mess, the banking system is archaic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26 ✭✭Tesla3


    We are doomed, if the fist infection does not kill us, the second or third pass will. Make your peace and get ready!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,406 ✭✭✭Sigma101


    Way too much emphasis on percentages here. None of the figures available at the moment from any country are reliable enough to determine what the death rates/ recovery rates, etc. will be. While the numbers are ramping up significantly these figures cannot be determined in a useful way. Death rates will probably get worse as total numbers increase and access to specialist healthcare facilities deteriorates (in both developing and developed countries ). There isn’t even any clarity on the incubation period, with suggestions it may be up to 27 days in some cases- in other words, at this point, we have no idea how many people in the world are currently infected.

    We’re at the very early stages of this with just 0.001% of the world’s population officially recognised as infected so far. It could be months before we have a clearer picture.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    *FYP.

    Others are only reporting (concluded) recovery rates by each country [30%c].


    Row Labels Sum of Count
    In Progress 53047
    Recovered 23374
    Died 2467
    Grand Total 78888

    Row Labels Sum of Count
    In Progress 67.24%
    Recovered 29.63%
    Died 3.13%
    Grand Total 100.00%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,792 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Graces7 wrote: »
    When I was finally diagnosed with M.E./CFIDS I read all the literature there was and bought every supplement alleged to help. Only thing affected was my bank account so now I rely on diet and an older person;s vitamin pill when I remember.
    It was once mooted the eating liquorish would relieve M.E and we are highly motivated .. sadly a few died of liver/kidney failure eating too much.

    A good diet should give all we need to fight infection but if it helps you feel you are doing more? Great.

    And different things help different folk .

    A good diet does little for people in Ireland in terms of vitamin D levels, which are low and deficient in winter due to lack of sunlight exposure. You might like to follow that link and do further research.

    Anecdotally: When my daughter was in PS, I would be getting several colds a term that she brought home. I got in some vitamin D and started taking those and stopped getting symptomatic colds. I'd still get them sometimes - that oh 5h1t burning feeling in your throat - but a few hours later it would be gone. £8.71 delivered for 240 5000 iu capsules is a pretty cheap precaution. Those are probably a bit strong so one every 2-3 days should be enough.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,792 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Tesla3 wrote: »
    We are doomed, if the fist infection does not kill us, the second or third pass will. Make your peace and get ready!

    Only if you are old and already sick - you left out that bit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,579 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Interesting in Dr Johns video he says he was in contact with colleagues in Iran and they said the virus attacks the heart as well.

    When the coronavirus news first broke there were many videos of people just dropping on the street in China before the CCP cracked down on the internet.
    I wonder, n China if those deaths are due to cardiac arrest or COVID19?

    Perhaps it's the same virus but those that died of heart issues were not associated with the COVID?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Row Labels Sum of Count
    In Progress 67.24%
    Recovered 29.63%
    Died 3.13%
    Grand Total 100.00%
    2/3rd have status of an 'unknown outcome'.

    Simga makes a good point, resource availability might become restricted as demand increases. Which may effect outcomes, and is rarely mentioned as a contextual factor in all of this.

    Also heard elsewhere a good load of Vit.C (with Zinc), along with Vit.D is yer only man for the aul pandemics.
    Am off for now for some (mutl-reflected) midday sunshine {while it lasts}, organic eggs, and bell peppers (better than oranges), bye!


This discussion has been closed.
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