new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wylo

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m I correct in saying Italy has 2 deaths with over 100 infected?

So around 2 % based on confirmed?

2 with 127 infected and question marks about the health of one of the deceased.

wellwhynot

Every country needs to close it’s borders and impose a quarantine for 30 days. Schools can email school work and people work from home if possible. Chemists, shops and hospitals remain open. There would be an economic hit but it would be less damaging than an outbreak and slow death of many businesses.

igCorcaigh

'Coming soon: Country-specific pages (with live statistics and graphs for each country and region)'

Worldometers proving to be the best resource on this topic.

4068ac1elhodqr

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m I correct in saying Italy has 2 deaths with over 100 infected?
So around 2 % based on confirmed?

76 infected afaik^ (currently).
But with most at early stage of sickness, you would need to check back in 3-4wks for each these cases to evaluate a better more accurate rate, even then it's a small sample.

A similar small sample is Irn, which shows 18.6% of confirmed, their regime is more likely of course however to suppress any reports of conifrmed cases.

edit: ^ correction latest for Italy says 'over 100', still likely at the early stage of a 2-3wk illness.

wakka12

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1231498932024422400

I would imagine she is one of the youngest people to have died in the epidemic, really sad, it makes me so upset that the daily job of healthcare workers puts them at such high risk in these situations

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m I correct in saying Italy has 2 deaths with over 100 infected?

So around 2 % based on confirmed?

117 infected

2 deaths
2 recovered
18 critical


If you assume that nobody else is going to die out of the 115 open cases yes, it's 2%

Mic 1972

wellwhynot wrote: »

Every country needs to close it’s borders and impose a quarantine for 30 days. Schools can email school work and people work from home if possible. Chemists, shops and hospitals remain open. There would be an economic hit but it would be less damaging than an outbreak and slow death of many businesses.

They need to raise awareness here in Ireland. Invite people with cold/flue symptoms to stay home and stop the "virus-isn't-here" bull****

wakka12

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200223/k10012298351000.html
A third passenger from the Diamond Princess cruise has died, he was in his 80's.

cnocbui

Graces7 wrote: »

Source please?

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200209/Researchers-reveal-how-long-coronaviruses-persist-on-surfaces-and-a-way-for-inactivation.aspx

Together with Professor Eike Steinmann, head of the Department for Molecular and Medical Virology at Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB), he has compiled comprehensive findings from 22 studies on coronaviruses and their inactivation for a future textbook.

Under the circumstances, the best approach was to publish these verified scientific facts in advance, in order to make all information available at a glance."

Eike Steinmann, head of the Department for Molecular and Medical Virology at Ruhr-Universität Bochum

The evaluated studies, which focus on the pathogens Sars coronavirus and Mers coronavirus, showed, for example, that the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. "Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan," points out Kampf.

Now given the coolness of the UK and Ireland, and the persistent high humidity, I would think we might have a problem with packages. Donning a pair of gloves and wiping the outside of the package with bleach should do the trick. Tesco sell boxes of disposable vinyl gloves, which are ideal, as they don't rot from bleach, unlike latex ones.

silverharp

wakka12 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1231498932024422400

I would imagine she is one of the youngest people to have died in the epidemic, really sad, it makes me so upset that the daily job of healthcare workers puts them at such high risk in these situations

I'd guess medical staff there are in a state of permanent exhaustion.

laurah591

Duke of Url wrote: »

Well you can look at it 3 ways.

Iran reporting 18% fatalities rate

Korea reporting 0.8% fatalities rate

China reporting 2% fatalities rate

It’s impossible to know which one is closest.

All 3 don’t know how many people are infected.

It's impossible to show fatalities rates when we don't know population size. I seriously believe Iran are only testing those in critical condition or near death whereas South Korea are testing everyone.

wakka12

It is a pointless exercise trying to estimate death rates from countries. Singapore apparently has the best detection available and still misses half of cases, there must be several thousand undetected in iran

The ship is by far the most accurate way

Duke of Url

wakka12 wrote: »

It is a pointless exercise trying to estimate death rates from countries. Singapore apparently has the best detection available and still misses half of cases, there must be several thousand undetected in iran

The ship is by far the most accurate way

The Diamond Princess?

So the death Rate is closest to 0.47%

Duke of Url

Country Confirmed Deaths Death %
China 76940 2443 3.18
Diamond Princess 634 3 0.47
S. Korea 602 5 0.83
Japan 146 1 0.68
Italy 117 2 1.71
Singapore 89 0 0.00
Hong Kong 70 2 2.86
Iran 43 8 18.60
Thailand 35 0 0.00
USA 35 0 0.00
Taiwan 28 1 3.57
Australia 22 0 0.00
Malaysia 22 0 0.00
Germany 16 0 0.00
Vietnam 16 0 0.00
U.A.E. 13 0 0.00
France 12 1 8.33
Macao 10 0 0.00
Canada 9 0 0.00
U.K. 9 0 0.00
Philippines 3 1 33.33
India 3 0 0.00
Russia 2 0 0.00
Spain 2 0 0.00
Belgium 1 0 0.00
Cambodia 1 0 0.00
Egypt 1 0 0.00
Finland 1 0 0.00
Israel 1 0 0.00
Lebanon 1 0 0.00
Nepal 1 0 0.00
Sri Lanka 1 0 0.00
Sweden 1 0 0.00
Iraq 1 0 0.00
Total 78888 2467 3.13

data taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Mic 1972

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200209/Researchers-reveal-how-long-coronaviruses-persist-on-surfaces-and-a-way-for-inactivation.aspx



Now given the coolness of the UK and Ireland, and the persistent high humidity, I would think we might have a problem with packages. Donning a pair of gloves and wiping the outside of the package with bleach should do the trick. Tesco sell boxes of disposable vinyl gloves, which are ideal, as they don't rot from bleach, unlike latex ones.

I have been wiping plastic wraps and boxes with Dettol for the last 2 weeks, it's a pain in the a** tho!

laurah591

igCorcaigh wrote: »

'Coming soon: Country-specific pages (with live statistics and graphs for each country and region)'

Worldometers proving to be the best resource on this topic.

The guys that update that website are really enjoying themselves.... I can see them at it

wakka12

Duke of Url wrote: »

The Diamond Princess?

So the death Rate is closest to 0.47%

Yes, 634 is a pretty good sample size but must account for the older age of the passengers too. I believe all 3 passengers who died were in their 80's

4068ac1elhodqr

S.Kor also has (very) recent cases, so can't assume any 'final rate' conclusions, in a situation when half of subjects are only confirmed within recent days.
The 2nd part, or thereafter of the (2-3wk) illness is usually the problematic time and when additional secondary issues can arise.

laurah591

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes, 634 is a pretty good sample size but must account for the older age of the passengers too. I believe all 3 passengers who died were in their 80's

Too early to say yet on that sample... the third died this morning and 27 remain in a serious condition

SK also has over 600 cases

Mic 1972

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

S.Kor also has (very) recent cases, so can't assume any 'final rate' conclusions, in a situation when half of subjects are only confirmed within recent days.

That's why the 3% rate doesn't mean anything, too many open cases are counted in that inflate the rate of survival

The only relevant stats are based on closed cases (deaths + Recovered)

Duke of Url

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes, 634 is a pretty good sample size but must account for the older age of the passengers too. I believe all 3 passengers who died were in their 80's

I agree with you.

Duke of Url

laurah591 wrote: »

It's impossible to show fatalities rates when we don't know population size. I seriously believe Iran are only testing those in critical condition or near death whereas South Korea are testing everyone.

I know that. I’ve stated the same multiple times.

wakka12

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231530105794682882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1231530105794682882&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Ff881sf%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dfalse
Israel seems by far the most determined country in the world to not have an epidemic

4068ac1elhodqr

Duke of Url wrote: »

Country Confirmed Deaths Death %
China 76940 2443 3.18

You're leaving out the status and likely results of all the tens of thousands of open (pending stats) cases.
You haven't stated this as a factor when dumping a data table.

Only 1/3rd have offically recovered so far.

Until very recently China was adding about 2k per day (which needs 2-3ks for status conclusion), so might even want to exclude all cases (20-30k), within last 2wks when concluding that 3.2% death rate.

laurah591

Duke of Url wrote: »

I know that. I’ve stated the same multiple times.

Then why are we discussing it and producing stats on a country by country basis ...

pc7

A worry I have here is that we’ve no real government at the minute. I know the admin in hse etc are there but will anyone take responsibility for big decisions.

Mic 1972

As of today, Recovery rate = 30%

joseywhales

If there are any trends here it is that wealthy nation's with top class infrastructure have a lower death rate and old populations have a higher death rate, beyond that I can draw no conclusions.
Edit: one more thing, viral load seems like a sensitive factor given the concentration of the outbreak in wuhan

Duke of Url

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

You're leaving out the status and likely results of all the tends of thousands of open (pending stats) cases.
You haven't stated this as a factor when dumping a data table.

Only 1/3rd have offically recovered so far.

Until very recently China was adding about 2k per day (which needs 2-3ks for status conclusion), so might even want to exclude all cases (20-30k), within last 2wks when concluding that 3.2% death rate.

Can you be clearer in that?

Are you saying to measure total deaths against currently infected?

4068ac1elhodqr

Duke of Url wrote: »

Can you be clearer in that?

You can only measure a case when it's run to a final conculsion: of either recovery or not.

The majority of the cases in (largest data set) China are 'in-progress' with only 30% recovered so far.

You can't get much clearer than that.