new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Duke of Url

laurah591 wrote: »

Then why are we discussing it and producing stats on a country by country basis ...

I’m measure the death rates reported by each country.

There was a question of Iran’s numbers 18 % death rate is a closer to real estimate because “some” say China are bull****ters.

Mic 1972

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

You can only measure a case when it's run to a final conculsion: of either recovery or not.

The majority of the cases in (largest data set) China are 'in-progress' with only 30% recovered so far.

You can't get much clearer than that.

Thank you! Finally someone who speaks my language

4068ac1elhodqr

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m measure the death rates reported by each country. [* in a dynamic, in-progress situaiton *]

*FYP.

Others are only reporting (concluded) recovery rates by each country [30%c].

MD1990

Singapore cases seems to be slowing down.
Give some hope that warm weather can help slow down the virus.

cnocbui

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Yes. The air quality is worse in some Irish towns during the winter because of solid fuel use. Wexford and Enniscorthy are particularly bad because the smoke doesn't dissipate due to geographical features. Unfortunately it won't just be people who burn smoky coal who might die.

Ireland is very windy. It's been blowing hard for weeks now, with barely a few hours of let up. I haven't been in Eniscorthy for decades, but I doubt the recent weeks of wind have passed it by, leaving smoke lingering.

cnocbui

gozunda wrote: »

That HSE Corona page is little better than a wet hanky imho. Useless. No advice or emergency contacts on the page for anyone reporting a possible Coronavirus infection. Ditto no advice at all about staying away from A&E and GP surgeries.

And again the only 'at risk' groups are those who may have been in "mainland China in the last 14 days" Evidently the HSE believe theres been no spread of infection at all...

This HSE page shows exactly how under resourced our hospitals are. Figures in red show the numbers waiting on trollies (the HSE hilariously refer to these patients as "trolley waiters"). The increase rate for those waiting to be seen is up approx 20% on this time last year.

Not a hope in hell patients with severe symptoms or those that may be in need of ICU resources are going to have a decent chance under the current system.

I recall seeing recently that Ireland's problem is that it spends the money, but gets half the outcome that other European countries get for the same level of expenditure. Everything in Ireland is inefficient and bogged down in the past. The legal system is a mess, the health system is a mess, the banking system is archaic.

Tesla3

We are doomed, if the fist infection does not kill us, the second or third pass will. Make your peace and get ready!

Sigma101

Way too much emphasis on percentages here. None of the figures available at the moment from any country are reliable enough to determine what the death rates/ recovery rates, etc. will be. While the numbers are ramping up significantly these figures cannot be determined in a useful way. Death rates will probably get worse as total numbers increase and access to specialist healthcare facilities deteriorates (in both developing and developed countries ). There isn’t even any clarity on the incubation period, with suggestions it may be up to 27 days in some cases- in other words, at this point, we have no idea how many people in the world are currently infected.

We’re at the very early stages of this with just 0.001% of the world’s population officially recognised as infected so far. It could be months before we have a clearer picture.

Duke of Url

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

*FYP.

Others are only reporting (concluded) recovery rates by each country [30%c].

Row Labels Sum of Count
In Progress 53047
Recovered 23374
Died 2467
Grand Total 78888

Row Labels Sum of Count
In Progress 67.24%
Recovered 29.63%
Died 3.13%
Grand Total 100.00%

cnocbui

Graces7 wrote: »

When I was finally diagnosed with M.E./CFIDS I read all the literature there was and bought every supplement alleged to help. Only thing affected was my bank account so now I rely on diet and an older person;s vitamin pill when I remember.
It was once mooted the eating liquorish would relieve M.E and we are highly motivated .. sadly a few died of liver/kidney failure eating too much.

A good diet should give all we need to fight infection but if it helps you feel you are doing more? Great.

And different things help different folk .

A good diet does little for people in Ireland in terms of vitamin D levels, which are low and deficient in winter due to lack of sunlight exposure. You might like to follow that link and do further research.

Anecdotally: When my daughter was in PS, I would be getting several colds a term that she brought home. I got in some vitamin D and started taking those and stopped getting symptomatic colds. I'd still get them sometimes - that oh 5h1t burning feeling in your throat - but a few hours later it would be gone. £8.71 delivered for 240 5000 iu capsules is a pretty cheap precaution. Those are probably a bit strong so one every 2-3 days should be enough.

cnocbui

Tesla3 wrote: »

We are doomed, if the fist infection does not kill us, the second or third pass will. Make your peace and get ready!

Only if you are old and already sick - you left out that bit.

SeaBreezes

Interesting in Dr Johns video he says he was in contact with colleagues in Iran and they said the virus attacks the heart as well.

When the coronavirus news first broke there were many videos of people just dropping on the street in China before the CCP cracked down on the internet.
I wonder, n China if those deaths are due to cardiac arrest or COVID19?

Perhaps it's the same virus but those that died of heart issues were not associated with the COVID?

4068ac1elhodqr

Duke of Url wrote: »

Row Labels Sum of Count
In Progress 67.24%
Recovered 29.63%
Died 3.13%
Grand Total 100.00%

2/3rd have status of an 'unknown outcome'.

Simga makes a good point, resource availability might become restricted as demand increases. Which may effect outcomes, and is rarely mentioned as a contextual factor in all of this.

Also heard elsewhere a good load of Vit.C (with Zinc), along with Vit.D is yer only man for the aul pandemics.
Am off for now for some (mutl-reflected) midday sunshine {while it lasts}, organic eggs, and bell peppers (better than oranges), bye!

Mic 1972

22% of open cases are in critical condition, that is a figure to watch when medical resources start to run out

gozunda

Graces7 wrote: »

As I said, my eyes are very sore and I am on a very limited machine. That material is there and of course it does not suit you to find it
Does not matter. Bless you gozunda! Bless you!

Yup as pointed out by others -

The relevant / up to date information is not on the website you detailed.

The fact that the HSE haven't got the their finger out DOEs matter

Btw any link for the "isolation units" you detailed? I'm interested in learning about them- but can't find anything.

And Gesundheit to you ...

But dont think anyone sneezed (thankfully) graces

Mic 1972

cnocbui wrote: »

Only if you are old and already sick - you left out that bit.

Urban legend
People are dying in theirs 30s too, as for the underlying condition, that means anything including a normal flue that has affected your immune system. You don't have to be an elderly on death doorstep to be at risk

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

22% of open cases are in critical condition, that is a figure to watch when medical resources start to run out

So a death rate of 2% is sounding really silly at this stage.

Mic 1972

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

So a death rate of 2% is sounding really silly at this stage.

Yep, it always sounded silly, now even more
The closed cases are showing a 10% death rate at the moment. Number of closed cases are no longer small now, reliability has increased

Corkgirl18

Has anyone seen a list of the towns/cities in Italy that are on lockdown? I can't find one. Supposed to be flying into Bergamo Milan in a few days.

Mic 1972

Corkgirl18 wrote: »

Has anyone seen a list of the towns/cities in Italy that are on lockdown? I can't find one. Supposed to be flying into Bergamo Milan in a few days.

that's right in the middle of it

Stheno

Corkgirl18 wrote: »

Has anyone seen a list of the towns/cities in Italy that are on lockdown? I can't find one. Supposed to be flying into Bergamo Milan in a few days.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/italy-draconian-measures-effort-halt-coronavirus-outbreak-spread

2 cases in Milan multiple shows cancelled for Milan fashion week

CinemaGuy45

Corkgirl18 wrote: »

Has anyone seen a list of the towns/cities in Italy that are on lockdown? I can't find one. Supposed to be flying into Bergamo Milan in a few days.

I am meant to be flying soon also.

Best advice is wait until the day before travel to make up your mind.

Mic 1972

Bergamo is in the region Lombardia = 89 cases so far, the most affected

CinemaGuy45

Stheno wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/italy-draconian-measures-effort-halt-coronavirus-outbreak-spread

2 cases in Milan multiple shows cancelled for Milan fashion week

A tiny but of good news among all the bad.

givyjoe

Gynoid wrote: »

Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study Xiaobo Yang*, Yuan Yu*, Jiqian Xu*, Huaqing Shu*, Jia’an Xia*, Hong Liu*, Yongran Wu, Lu Zhang, Zhui Yu, Minghao Fang, Ting Yu, Yaxin Wang, Shangwen Pan, Xiaojing Zou, Shiying Yuan, You Shang

Published in The Lancet Feb 21st 2020

Summary

Background
An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia associated with the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in December, 2019, in Wuhan, China. Information about critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is scarce. We aimed to describe the clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

Methods
In this single-centered, retrospective, observational study, we enrolled 52 critically ill adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Wuhan Jin Yin-tan hospital (Wuhan, China) between late December, 2019, and Jan 26, 2020. Demographic data, symptoms, laboratory values, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes were all collected. Data were compared between survivors and non-survivors. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, as of Feb 9, 2020. Secondary outcomes included incidence of SARS-CoV-2-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the proportion of patients requiring mechanical ventilation.

Findings
Of 710 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, 52 critically ill adult patients were included. The mean age of the 52 patients was 59·7 (SD 13·3) years, 35 (67%) were men, 21 (40%) had chronic illness, 51 (98%) had fever. 32 (61·5%) patients had died at 28 days, and the median duration from admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) to death was 7 (IQR 3–11) days for non-survivors. Compared with survivors, non-survivors were older (64·6 years [11·2]
vs 51·9 years [12·9]), more likely to develop ARDS (26 [81%] patients vs 9 [45%] patients), and more likely to receive mechanical ventilation (30 [94%] patients vs 7 [35%] patients), either invasively or non-invasively. Most patients had
organ function damage, including 35 (67%) with ARDS, 15 (29%) with acute kidney injury, 12 (23%) with cardiac injury, 15 (29%) with liver dysfunction, and one (2%) with pneumothorax. 37 (71%) patients required mechanical ventilation. Hospital-acquired infection occurred in seven (13·5%) patients.
Interpretation The mortality of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is considerable. The survival time of
the non-survivors is likely to be within 1–2 weeks after ICU admission. Older patients (>65 years) with comorbidities and ARDS are at increased risk of death. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia poses great strain on critical care resources in hospitals, especially if they are not adequately staffed or resourced.




Seems to be a horrible illness for sure.

Those last few lines do not mix well with the current state of our hospitals.

Atlantic Dawn

Are there any cases of people who got it but were mostly grand except for a rise in temperature and needing to stay away from working out in the gym for a few days?

TheRepentent

Graces7 wrote: »

A

That material is there and of course it does not suit you to find it
Does not matter.

You make the claim you back it up...as usual you post absolute sh1te and when pulled up on it , you throw your toys out of your pram.

Everyone knows what you're like at this stage , whatever thread you jump into and no matter the topic.

Corkgirl18

Thanks for the replies all.

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

I am meant to be flying soon also.

Best advice is wait until the day before travel to make up your mind.

We're supposed to be bringing 80 school kids with us so won't be able to wait unfortunately. I'm guessing we're not going to end up going at this stage

pc7

Bergamo\Milan would be big airport hubs for skiing areas. If an airport worker was a carrier then half of Europe who went skiing last while would be open to it. Really mind blowing when you think how easily something can spread in modern times.

CinemaGuy45

Corkgirl18 wrote: »

Thanks for the replies all.



We're supposed to be bringing 80 school kids with us so won't be able to wait unfortunately. I'm guessing we're not going to end up going at this stage

I am sorry but don't think there is any chance of that trip happening now.:(