new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

jackboy · 22-02-2020 01:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

And any impact on the chain is made far worse by people filling freezers. I can see why they do it out of self-preservation at the expense of others, but I don't agree with it. A week or two I suppose is fine but months? The supply chain won't break to the point of there not being enough food. It just ends up in the hands of a few.

People hoarding in advance have little impact on the food supply chain. The supply chain could be easily broken to the point where food runs out, happens in regions of the world(with other issues) all the time.

We have been seriously degrading farming in this country for decades and we are not nearly as self sufficient as we were. That could come back to bite us.

Of course it would take a very severe virus to have this impact. As I have said, this virus does not seem to be serious enough. I think it will be next winter though before we will have a good knowledge of the threat of this virus.

creditcarder · 22-02-2020 01:31PM

wakka12 wrote: »

I'm pretty sure they misread it

I did

But, I do think hot weather does stimmy it. It doesn't destroy the virus, but it massively cuts down on the 'passive' transmission imo.

creditcarder · 22-02-2020 01:32PM

Deleted User wrote: »

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

Why are china pushing a huge incubation period when other sources aren't? I'm not sure what's going on in the politcs there tbh.

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 01:32PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Theres no way to confirm this, he could have come into contact with multiple other infected since then. With the severity in older people i do not believe he could go 27 days with no symptoms.

Yes sure with a new and developing situation who can say for sure?

When we are not sure let us just assume the least scary outcome.

Drumpot · 22-02-2020 01:34PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 01:35PM

creditcarder wrote: »

Why are china pushing a huge incubation period when other sources aren't? I'm not sure what's going on in the politcs there tbh.

Some people screaming for us to believe the official Chinese infection and death figures but don't believe them when they say something scary.

Some people want to have their cake and eat it too.

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 01:35PM

creditcarder wrote: »

But, I do think hot weather does stimmy it. It doesn't destroy the virus, but it massively cuts down on the 'passive' transmission imo.

If only that worked in Singapore and Thailand...

22-02-2020 01:36PM

jackboy wrote: »

People hoarding in advance have little impact on the food supply chain. The supply chain could be easily broken to the point where food runs out, happens in regions of the world(with other issues) all the time.

We have been seriously degrading farming in this country for decades and we are not nearly as self sufficient as we were. That could come back to bite us.

Of course it would take a very severe virus to have this impact. As I have said, this virus does not seem to be serious enough. I think it will be next winter though before we will have a good knowledge of the threat of this virus.

Doesn't Ireland produce enough for food for over thirty million people? It's countries like the UK that actually have to import.

Describe to me how the supply chain in Ireland could be easily broken to the point where food runs out.

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 01:37PM

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

good example, both SARS and MERS are closed, while COvid-19 is still open, out of the total cases there are more than 70% cases without an outcome, many of which will eventually add up to the total deaths

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 01:38PM

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

Stupid chart putting the new scary virus in RED.

Why can the much bigger number not be in a much more calming BLUE ?

yuulHrhTw_VjaSce06l93p0RU5HwzKuhqXpHLzbM0bvsG1jDBI15fSndOs_MEbyRo1Xe7CT18ffX6vivXuQunC4

yuulHrhTw_VjaSce06l93p0RU5HwzKuhqXpHLzbM0bvsG1jDBI15fSndOs_MEbyRo1Xe7CT18ffX6vivXuQunC4

wakka12 · 22-02-2020 01:39PM

https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/SKorea-reports-142-additional-coronavirus-cases-brings-total-to-34-618364
Concern in Israel as it emerges 9 infected South Koreans recently spent a week long holiday there

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51582186
Testing beginning on all members of the South Korean church cult. Over 400 more members are showing symptoms

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200222-03281105-soon-l09
A woman who tested negative on the Diamon Princess two days ago has now tested positive. One thousand other passengers were yesterday released from the ship into the general population after having tested negative

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 01:41PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/SKorea-reports-142-additional-coronavirus-cases-brings-total-to-34-618364
Concern in Israel as it emerges 9 infected South Koreans recently S pent a week long holiday there

Jesus now it's serious.:D

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 01:46PM

https://ibb.co/XDzjnDs

XDzjnDs

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 01:49PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://ibb.co/XDzjnDs

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 01:51PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Thanks for fixing my post, i couldnt figure out how to add the pic :rolleyes:

odyssey06 · 22-02-2020 01:51PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200222-03281105-soon-l09
A woman who tested negative on the Diamon Princess two days ago has now tested positive. Hundreds of other passengers were yesterday released from the ship after having only one negative test

:eek::(
I don't even know what to say... that test seems to be giving false sense of confidence.

jackboy · 22-02-2020 01:51PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Doesn't Ireland produce enough for food for over thirty million people? It's countries like the UK that actually have to import.

Describe to me how the supply chain in Ireland could be easily broken to the point where food runs out.

Of course we could stop exporting food and confiscate from farmers and industry for distribution amongst the population. The issues with that and slowing of the vast amount of imported food would quickly cause shortages.

Less farmers on larger farms are bad for self sufficiency. The food supply chain is precarious, even in Ireland. How much veg is ready for harvesting in the fields now? What’s in the supermarkets would not last long.

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 01:52PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Thanks for fixing my post, i couldnt figure out how to add the pic :rolleyes:

No problem some people on here will never click on a link.:rolleyes:

Fr_Dougal · 22-02-2020 01:52PM

Why haven’t the WHO classed this as a ‘pandemic’?

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 01:54PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Why haven’t the WHO classed this as a ‘pandemic’?

Who is that now?

creditcarder · 22-02-2020 01:54PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

If only that worked in Singapore and Thailand...

...It is? I'm pretty sure the case are in double digits.

s7ryf3925pivug · 22-02-2020 01:55PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Why haven’t the WHO classed this as a ‘pandemic’?

A pandemic is when there are epidemics in multiple continents. Any epidemics that have been identified are still in Asian countries.

wakka12 · 22-02-2020 01:55PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Why haven’t the WHO classed this as a ‘pandemic’?

Because, whats the point. It wont change anything and will just make people act stupidly and panic

creditcarder · 22-02-2020 01:55PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/SKorea-reports-142-additional-coronavirus-cases-brings-total-to-34-618364
Concern in Israel as it emerges 9 infected South Koreans recently spent a week long holiday there

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51582186
Testing beginning on all members of the South Korean church cult. Over 400 more members are showing symptoms

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200222-03281105-soon-l09
A woman who tested negative on the Diamon Princess two days ago has now tested positive. Hundreds of other passengers were yesterday released from the ship after having only one negative test

Yeah, Isreal could be a bad sitch as they are in a constant war.

Call Me Jimmy · 22-02-2020 01:58PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Grace. People are searching for videos and articles of worse case scenarios and posting them as fact.

All the professionals are saying current analytics are not correct as it’s impossible to know if you tested the world population now, How many cases would there be.

A question for you Grace.... Have you ever been put off travelling during the winter or spring time?

You agree we don't enough data on virus, and the experts say its likely a global pandemic and in the us CDC says it's a "tremendous public health threat", I can look up all the other bodies saying how serious it is. And you agree we don't have good data on it...? So what's your point? You are assuming this will be more like the flu than SARS. And yet we're told we're wannabe experts for saying the situation appears to be pretty serious.

Outside of the actual death rate, it is causing 1/10th of the world to shut down. And when in your life have you heard of these kinds of quarantines becoming ubiquitous? There's so much to this story but because it's not at our front door, discussing it is panic. Speculating is panic. But saying it is no big deal - which seems to be a minority opinion of experts and public health bodies - is the true picture. Even though we see a pattern (in Italy and Iran) of everything being fine until it isn't.

Sick of being told we're wannabe experts when others who want to downplay it make outlandish claims to show how not concerned they are like 'we will not get a case" "the death rate is less than 1% guaranteed". etc. yet have you seen any expert or body say that? Whereas most of the people discussing the facts (which by their nature sound serious) are just as calm and there has been almost no misinformation in this thread considering it's size and how many people have contributed. Maybe all the governments are panicking too, I'm open to that and I'm not ruling out that it will be milder. Though I've seen more certainty from the people who declare to be mild on average.

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 01:58PM

Italy has now 50 cases, it's the 6th most infected country in the world. But it's also one of the very few that is testing thousands of people right now to assess the situation

wakka12 · 22-02-2020 02:00PM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

A pandemic is when there are epidemics in multiple continents. Any epidemics that have been identified are still in Asian countries.

Italy is certainly not in Asia

odyssey06 · 22-02-2020 02:00PM

jackboy wrote: »

Of course we could stop exporting food and confiscate from farmers and industry for distribution amongst the population. The issues with that and slowing of the vast amount of imported food would quickly cause shortages.
Less farmers on larger farms are bad for self sufficiency. The food supply chain is precarious, even in Ireland. How much veg is ready for harvesting in the fields now? What’s in the supermarkets would not last long.

I remember from no-deal Brexit warnings that almost all of the flour used in bread and similar products here actually comes from the UK. Flour meat and cheese sectors are based on an all island economy.
https://www.thejournal.ie/no-deal-brexit-food-4528746-Mar2019/

It wouldn't work unless a joint UK-Ireland approach was agreed.

And even if the food was in the fields, would we have the fuel to transport it.
Would we have packaging for milk, cheese etc

Fingers crossed the measures taken by other governments stop the super-spreaders work and it doesn't take root here because if it does, I seriously doubt our ability to cope - far more than that of our EU partners.

hmmm · 22-02-2020 02:04PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

And yet we're told we're wannabe experts for saying the situation appears to be pretty serious.

So what? What if you're right? Is it enough to win Internet points by being proven to be right - do you want to people to be frightened, to panic, to start making decisions in a frightened state?

I hear people saying "well I'm just making sure people are aware and are prepared". Prepared in what way? Rush to a hardware store to buy masks, which will deprive the people who really need them? Rush to the supermarket to buy out the place, so putting massive strain on logistics? Start going to their GP everytime they have a cough, and filling our hospitals with people with minor illnesses?

We don't know how bad this will be. It doesn't look great, but it's not catastrophic either - if it spreads lots of us will get it, most will be mild, the hospitals will be stretched. But that's it - life goes on, we'll need to go to work, we'll need to be a bit more careful about washing hands or shaking hands, businesses will need to be a bit more careful about not allowing employees to work if they are sick. The biggest danger is that people start panicking and thinking it's a bigger deal than it is, and we all have a responsibility to be careful about what we say.

pearcider · 22-02-2020 02:08PM

hmmm wrote: »

So what? What if you're right? Is it enough to win Internet points by being proven to be right - do you want to people to be frightened, to panic, to start making decisions in a frightened state?

I hear people saying "well I'm just making sure people are aware and are prepared". Prepared in what way? Rush to a hardware store to buy masks, which will deprive the people who really need them? Rush to the supermarket to buy out the place, so putting massive strain on logistics? Start going to their GP everytime they have a cough, and filling our hospitals with people with minor illnesses?

We don't know how bad this will be. It doesn't look great, but it's not catastrophic either - if it spreads lots of us will get it, most will be mild, the hospitals will be stretched. But that's it - life goes on, we'll need to go to work, we'll need to be a bit more careful about washing hands or shaking hands, businesses will need to be a bit more careful about not allowing employees to work if they are sick. The biggest danger is that people start panicking and thinking it's a bigger deal than it is, and we all have a responsibility to be careful about what we say.

Wishful thinking there. If we have a Wuhan like outbreak we are goosed. Decades of underinvestment in the army will come home to roost.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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