new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

odyssey06 · 22-02-2020 02:09PM

Excerpt from article in this week's New Scientist about the virus, my emphasis in bold.

Cases outside China are infecting fewer other people than expected, given the rate of spread in China. Using epidemic models, Justin Lessler at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland says this fits a situation in which only 10 per cent of cases are responsible for 80 per cent of transmission – in other words, most cases are caused by superspreaders...
If many places outside Wuhan “get lucky” and get few superspreaders, “this seems the most likely way a pandemic might be averted”, says Marc Lipsitch at Harvard University. However, Lipsitch says that seems a lot to hope for, given the number of countries with infections, and the likely number of missed cases. He predicts that covid-19 will go pandemic, infecting between 40 to 70 per cent of people globally. Lipsitch and Fisman both say that if that is going to happen, unexplained clusters of severe pneumonia in older people outside China will emerge in a few weeks...
The SARS coronavirus moved mainly via super-spreading and the epidemic died out. Whether that is likely to happen this time should become apparent soon.

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:11PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

It's consistent with the data in Italy. They went from 3 cases to 45 in just 1 day. They were testing about 4,000 people yesterday, that's where the new cases came from

The only way to have accurate data is to go out and test people

Nah can not agree with that.

The best way to handle this is to do no testing then you have NO confirmed cases.
And if somebody does fall ill just cover it up and call people tinfoil hat wackos sure we have no CONFIRMED cases sure we are grand.

Edit we could get the Garda they are great at doing tests we could have them pull over cars and do tests on the roadside then we would have some solid numbers to work on.

silverharp · 22-02-2020 02:16PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Look stop the silliness yes 5 people out of 28 are dead and this is very sad but let us remember this number is small it is not like this thing spreads or something.

The sensible thing to do is not buy anything extra or make any preparations.
Sure if you run out of food just ring for a pizza.

ask for extra napkins if you run out of toilet roll :pac:

22-02-2020 02:21PM

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:25PM

Deleted User wrote: »

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

14 days is the official incubation time.

VinLieger · 22-02-2020 02:26PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

Theres no way to confirm this, he could have come into contact with multiple other infected since then. With the severity in older people i do not believe he could go 27 days with no symptoms.

jackboy · 22-02-2020 02:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

And any impact on the chain is made far worse by people filling freezers. I can see why they do it out of self-preservation at the expense of others, but I don't agree with it. A week or two I suppose is fine but months? The supply chain won't break to the point of there not being enough food. It just ends up in the hands of a few.

People hoarding in advance have little impact on the food supply chain. The supply chain could be easily broken to the point where food runs out, happens in regions of the world(with other issues) all the time.

We have been seriously degrading farming in this country for decades and we are not nearly as self sufficient as we were. That could come back to bite us.

Of course it would take a very severe virus to have this impact. As I have said, this virus does not seem to be serious enough. I think it will be next winter though before we will have a good knowledge of the threat of this virus.

creditcarder · 22-02-2020 02:31PM

wakka12 wrote: »

I'm pretty sure they misread it

I did

But, I do think hot weather does stimmy it. It doesn't destroy the virus, but it massively cuts down on the 'passive' transmission imo.

creditcarder · 22-02-2020 02:32PM

Deleted User wrote: »

"Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days"
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11991604

Why are china pushing a huge incubation period when other sources aren't? I'm not sure what's going on in the politcs there tbh.

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:32PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Theres no way to confirm this, he could have come into contact with multiple other infected since then. With the severity in older people i do not believe he could go 27 days with no symptoms.

Yes sure with a new and developing situation who can say for sure?

When we are not sure let us just assume the least scary outcome.

Drumpot · 22-02-2020 02:34PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:35PM

creditcarder wrote: »

Why are china pushing a huge incubation period when other sources aren't? I'm not sure what's going on in the politcs there tbh.

Some people screaming for us to believe the official Chinese infection and death figures but don't believe them when they say something scary.

Some people want to have their cake and eat it too.

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 02:35PM

creditcarder wrote: »

But, I do think hot weather does stimmy it. It doesn't destroy the virus, but it massively cuts down on the 'passive' transmission imo.

If only that worked in Singapore and Thailand...

22-02-2020 02:36PM

jackboy wrote: »

People hoarding in advance have little impact on the food supply chain. The supply chain could be easily broken to the point where food runs out, happens in regions of the world(with other issues) all the time.

We have been seriously degrading farming in this country for decades and we are not nearly as self sufficient as we were. That could come back to bite us.

Of course it would take a very severe virus to have this impact. As I have said, this virus does not seem to be serious enough. I think it will be next winter though before we will have a good knowledge of the threat of this virus.

Doesn't Ireland produce enough for food for over thirty million people? It's countries like the UK that actually have to import.

Describe to me how the supply chain in Ireland could be easily broken to the point where food runs out.

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 02:37PM

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

good example, both SARS and MERS are closed, while COvid-19 is still open, out of the total cases there are more than 70% cases without an outcome, many of which will eventually add up to the total deaths

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:38PM

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51596665

You can actually ask the BBC to answer your questions at the bottom of this story...

Stupid chart putting the new scary virus in RED.

Why can the much bigger number not be in a much more calming BLUE ?

yuulHrhTw_VjaSce06l93p0RU5HwzKuhqXpHLzbM0bvsG1jDBI15fSndOs_MEbyRo1Xe7CT18ffX6vivXuQunC4

yuulHrhTw_VjaSce06l93p0RU5HwzKuhqXpHLzbM0bvsG1jDBI15fSndOs_MEbyRo1Xe7CT18ffX6vivXuQunC4

wakka12 · 22-02-2020 02:39PM

https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/SKorea-reports-142-additional-coronavirus-cases-brings-total-to-34-618364
Concern in Israel as it emerges 9 infected South Koreans recently spent a week long holiday there

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51582186
Testing beginning on all members of the South Korean church cult. Over 400 more members are showing symptoms

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200222-03281105-soon-l09
A woman who tested negative on the Diamon Princess two days ago has now tested positive. One thousand other passengers were yesterday released from the ship into the general population after having tested negative

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:41PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/SKorea-reports-142-additional-coronavirus-cases-brings-total-to-34-618364
Concern in Israel as it emerges 9 infected South Koreans recently S pent a week long holiday there

Jesus now it's serious.:D

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 02:46PM

https://ibb.co/XDzjnDs

XDzjnDs

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:49PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://ibb.co/XDzjnDs

Mic 1972 · 22-02-2020 02:51PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Thanks for fixing my post, i couldnt figure out how to add the pic :rolleyes:

odyssey06 · 22-02-2020 02:51PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200222-03281105-soon-l09
A woman who tested negative on the Diamon Princess two days ago has now tested positive. Hundreds of other passengers were yesterday released from the ship after having only one negative test

:eek::(
I don't even know what to say... that test seems to be giving false sense of confidence.

jackboy · 22-02-2020 02:51PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Doesn't Ireland produce enough for food for over thirty million people? It's countries like the UK that actually have to import.

Describe to me how the supply chain in Ireland could be easily broken to the point where food runs out.

Of course we could stop exporting food and confiscate from farmers and industry for distribution amongst the population. The issues with that and slowing of the vast amount of imported food would quickly cause shortages.

Less farmers on larger farms are bad for self sufficiency. The food supply chain is precarious, even in Ireland. How much veg is ready for harvesting in the fields now? What’s in the supermarkets would not last long.

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:52PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Thanks for fixing my post, i couldnt figure out how to add the pic :rolleyes:

No problem some people on here will never click on a link.:rolleyes:

Fr_Dougal · 22-02-2020 02:52PM

Why haven’t the WHO classed this as a ‘pandemic’?

CinemaGuy45 · 22-02-2020 02:54PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Why haven’t the WHO classed this as a ‘pandemic’?

Who is that now?

creditcarder · 22-02-2020 02:54PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

If only that worked in Singapore and Thailand...

...It is? I'm pretty sure the case are in double digits.

s7ryf3925pivug · 22-02-2020 02:55PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Why haven’t the WHO classed this as a ‘pandemic’?

A pandemic is when there are epidemics in multiple continents. Any epidemics that have been identified are still in Asian countries.

wakka12 · 22-02-2020 02:55PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Why haven’t the WHO classed this as a ‘pandemic’?

Because, whats the point. It wont change anything and will just make people act stupidly and panic

creditcarder · 22-02-2020 02:55PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/SKorea-reports-142-additional-coronavirus-cases-brings-total-to-34-618364
Concern in Israel as it emerges 9 infected South Koreans recently spent a week long holiday there

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51582186
Testing beginning on all members of the South Korean church cult. Over 400 more members are showing symptoms

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200222-03281105-soon-l09
A woman who tested negative on the Diamon Princess two days ago has now tested positive. Hundreds of other passengers were yesterday released from the ship after having only one negative test

Yeah, Isreal could be a bad sitch as they are in a constant war.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Comments