new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 9:49pm

littlemac1980 wrote: »

What's with all this non-sense about people panicking? The vast majority of the posts I've read on this forum have been very sensible and reasonable. The only ones that strike me as dumb are those that are insisting that Covid-19 is no worse than the flu

Totally agree
Last week a 17 year old Italian - who had fever but tested negative before and after quarantine - was flown to Italy from Wuhan on a military plane, they kept him inside a special "protective" case for the entire trip and quickly transferred to a hospital right after landing
This for a normal flue with death rate as low as 2%??

http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4072

ceadaoin. · 19-02-2020 9:52pm

littlemac1980 wrote: »

What's with all this non-sense about people panicking? The vast majority of the posts I've read on this forum have been very sensible and reasonable. The only ones that strike me as dumb are those that are insisting that Covid-19 is no worse than the flu. That position has been clearly incorrect from the outset and anyone trying to maintain that at this stage is either trolling or needs to have someone help them understand the fundamental metrics - which even based on the "official" Chinese numbers are very easy to interpret vis-a-vis a comparative analysis. I wouldn't even be bothered responding to those posters at this stage. It's just mindless repetition without any rational basis.

A previous poster mentioned MSM has been very slow to publish meaningful articles about the virus/outbreak/potential pandemic. I agree!

The current situation has shown up the true nature of our now "Big Brother" global cyber community where information can now be rationed out via major Techological corporations and seemingly at their entire discretion.

With how little MSM attention this is getting one might almost begin to wonder if the economic impact of the outbreak in China might somehow have a negative impact on Google/Facebook et al. share prices, how might that ever be possible? That would surely require the Chinese economy to be an integral (& sizeable) part of the Global economy. But even if that was the case, then there would also need to be some weird market mechanism whereby share prices could somehow fluctuate based on consumer/purchaser confidence. What a weird world that would be to live in, huh? People could get rich (and poor) simply through speculation... of course only in so far as the major Internet players could control the dissemination of information. It would make no sense to allow those type of companies to also be publicly floated companies right?

On the daily mail homepage, which regrettably is the most read news site in the world, there are currently 10 separate articles relating to the Coronavirus. It even has its own section, "Killer Coronavirus". Yeah sounds like it's being downplayed alright lol. A google search produces hundreds of articles, all from MSM sources such as CNN, NBC etc.

Its nonsense to suggest it isnt getting any coverage and simply a case of twisting reality to fit some crazy conspiracy theories.

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 9:54pm

BloodBath wrote: »

Like yourself?

First hen that sings has laid...

As for me, I share data that is widely available, for people who want to be informed.
Not here to down play people's concerns unlike others

BloodBath · 19-02-2020 9:55pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

First hen that sings has laid...
As for me, I share data that is widely available, for people who want to be informed.
Not here to down play people's concerns unlike others

But you have been proven to be wrong several times already in both your calculations and your logic.

But you work with numbers and statistics so you know better right?

cnocbui · 19-02-2020 9:56pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

I care because posts like this scare people in doing stuff that is not necessary. There is no need to scare people. People have lost the run of themselves.

Did anyone stockpile for SARS? That was 17 years ago and infected people in 29 countries.

I am off to invest in face mask companies and make some money from this madness.

Perhaps you should go preach your Ostrich dogma to CNBC - you know, the US based finance news website. They must be panicking - go stop them, quick. These are the Virus article stories in just the first two screens of that site on my laptop. It's the topic of global concern at the moment. You are the odd man out, you are the one out of step with the global conversation.

Coronavirus live updates: Fed sees risk to global growth, CDC issues Hong Kong travel guidelines

As of Wednesday, more than 75,200 cases of coronavirus have been reported, resulting in at least 2,000 deaths.

CDC issues travel guidelines for Hong Kong after second coronavirus-related death in the city

Goldman says market underestimating coronavirus risk: ‘Correction is looking much more probable’

Fed calls the coronavirus a ‘new risk to global growth outlook’
an hour ago

Coronavirus: IMF chief says the outbreak is the ‘most pressing uncertainty’ for global economy

China’s Xi Jinping, under fire from virus outbreak, could also face an ‘economic crisis’

Two Iranians die after testing positive for coronavirus

ceadaoin. · 19-02-2020 9:58pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Perhaps you should go preach your Ostrich dogma to CNBC - you know, the US based finance news website. They must be panicking - go stop them, quick. These are the Virus article stories in just the first two screens of that site on my laptop. It's the topic of global concern at the moment. You are the odd man out, you are the one out of step with the global conversation.

But no one is talking about it and its a huge coverup according to others

wadacrack · 19-02-2020 9:59pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Totally agree
Last week a 17 year old Italian - who had fever but tested negative before and after quarantine - was flown to Italy from Wuhan on a military plane, they kept him inside a special "protective" case for the entire trip and quickly transferred to a hospital right after landing
This for a normal flue with death rate as low as 2%??

http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4072

What is your point about the 2%. Do you genuinely think that is low? 1 in 50 will die so its obviously not comparable to the flu

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 9:59pm

wadacrack wrote: »

You shared inaccurate data im sure.

The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed
cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control
and Prevention,9
is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February.
This CFR does not include the number of more mild infections that may be missed from current surveillance, which
has largely focused on patients with pneumonia requiring hospitalization; nor does it account for the fact that
recently confirmed cases may yet develop severe disease, and some may die. As the outbreak continues, the
confirmed CFR may change. Outside of China, CFR estimates among confirmed cases reported is lower than reported
from within China. However, it is too early to draw conclusions as to whether there are real differences in the CFR
inside and outside of China, as final outcome data (that is, who will recover and who will die) for the majority of
cases reported from outside China are not yet known.
source: WHO situation report

...Again, you can look at data whichever way you prefer, the actual data won't change
If it makes you sleep better at night to believe that covid-19 kills 2.3 people out of 100 feel free
I'm interested in death rate instead

and no, the data I share is not inaccurate. Document yourself please, the links are widely available

littlemac1980 · 19-02-2020 9:59pm

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Its nonsense to suggest it isnt getting any coverage and simply a case of twisting reality to fit some crazy conspiracy theories.

You know I appreciate your comment and of course there are articles now, but really you need to jump back a couple of weeks to truly understand the context of what I am referring to. Many posters here have been following this for 3 weeks +.

God be with the days Sky News would do 24/7 cover of non-issues - could have done with some coverage from the beginning, but this incident has been a cacophony of watching the horse bolt as you wonder who exactly is supposed to be closing the gate.

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 10:02pm

wadacrack wrote: »

What is your point about the 2%. Do you genuinely think that is low? 1 in 50 will die so its obviously not comparable to the flu

actually 1 in 50 have died so far while 75% of people infected are still open cases. Do you think that out of those 75% of people (46,000) no one else is going to die?

ceadaoin. · 19-02-2020 10:03pm

littlemac1980 wrote: »

You know I appreciate your comment and of course there are articles now, but really you need to jump back a couple of weeks to truly understand the context of what I am referring to. Many posters here have been following this for 3 weeks +.

God be with the days Sky News would do 24/7 cover of non-issues - could have done with some coverage from the beginning, but this incident has been a cacophony of watching the horse bolt as you wonder who exactly is supposed to be closing the gate.

Yeah I have been following this all that time too. There have been articles and tv coverage since then, even on my local news channel here in the US. Maybe it's been different tv wise where you are but anyone could find articles online. if they keep up to date with the news it would be hard not to notice.

Call Me Jimmy · 19-02-2020 10:04pm

BloodBath wrote: »

Like yourself?

You are 1 of the people who has been called out for misrepresenting the numbers several times already saying the death rate was 12% or higher when in fact it's 2.3% of "confirmed cases" only at the moment with no estimate of unconfirmed recoveries accounted into that figure at all which means it's far below 2.3%

Just out of interest, do you know for that 2.3% calculation, does it include the Chinese figures?

EDIT: Nevermind just saw the previous post with the info.

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 10:04pm

BloodBath wrote: »

But you have been proven to be wrong several times already in both your calculations and your logic.

But you work with numbers and statistics so you know better right?

No I haven't been proven wrong
yes i understand numbers

And my calculations are actually taken from Worldometer which contains a dedicated section on how to calculate death rate. I posted the link several times

SeaBreezes · 19-02-2020 10:04pm

littlemac1980 wrote: »

What's with all this non-sense about people panicking? The vast majority of the posts I've read on this forum have been very sensible and reasonable. The only ones that strike me as dumb are those that are insisting that Covid-19 is no worse than the flu. That position has been clearly incorrect from the outset and anyone trying to maintain that at this stage is either trolling or needs to have someone help them understand the fundamental metrics - which even based on the "official" Chinese numbers are very easy to interpret vis-a-vis a comparative analysis. I wouldn't even be bothered responding to those posters at this stage. It's just mindless repetition without any rational basis.

A previous poster mentioned MSM has been very slow to publish meaningful articles about the virus/outbreak/potential pandemic. I agree!

The current situation has shown up the true nature of our now "Big Brother" global cyber community where information can now be rationed out via major Techological corporations and seemingly at their entire discretion.

With how little MSM attention this is getting one might almost begin to wonder if the economic impact of the outbreak in China might somehow have a negative impact on Google/Facebook et al. share prices, how might that ever be possible? That would surely require the Chinese economy to be an integral (& sizeable) part of the Global economy. But even if that was the case, then there would also need to be some weird market mechanism whereby share prices could somehow fluctuate based on consumer/purchaser confidence. What a weird world that would be to live in, huh? People could get rich (and poor) simply through speculation... of course only in so far as the major Internet players could control the dissemination of information. It would make no sense to allow those type of companies to also be publicly floated companies right?

How to manage the narrative:
https://m.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-chinese-regime-deploys-1600-internet-trolls-to-suppress-information-on-coronavirus_3242454.html/amp?__twitter_impression=true

The propaganda department in virus-stricken Hubei Province has engaged over 1,600 censors to scrub the internet of “sensitive” information relating to the coronavirus outbreak, according to an internal document obtained by The Epoch Times.

wadacrack · 19-02-2020 10:06pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

actually 1 in 50 have died so far while 75% of people infected are still open cases. Do you think that out of those 75% of people (46,000) no one else is going to die?

That has nothing to do with what I asked you. You compared a virus with a 2% death rate to the flu? Its strange as the flu is no where near that rate

Fr_Dougal · 19-02-2020 10:07pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

No I haven't been proven wrong
yes i understand numbers

And my calculations are actually taken from Worldometer which contains a dedicated section on how to calculate death rate. I posted the link several times

You’re wasting your time with that poster.

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 10:10pm

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

You’re wasting your time with that poster.

edit

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 10:12pm

wadacrack wrote: »

That has nothing to do with what I asked you. You compared a virus with a 2% death rate to the flu? Its strange as the flu is no where near that rate

you are correct, the flue is lower, I'm referring to people comparing this to a flue because of low death rates. Coronavirus doesn't have a low death rate when you look at the actual deaths out of closed cases

cnocbui · 19-02-2020 10:13pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

How to manage the narrative:
https://m.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-chinese-regime-deploys-1600-internet-trolls-to-suppress-information-on-coronavirus_3242454.html/amp?__twitter_impression=true

The propaganda department in virus-stricken Hubei Province has engaged over 1,600 censors to scrub the internet of “sensitive” information relating to the coronavirus outbreak, according to an internal document obtained by The Epoch Times.

Is there a list? Does one of them go by 'Snow Garden'?

Fr_Dougal · 19-02-2020 10:15pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

edit

Not you, the poster who doesn’t believe the official CFR of 2.1%.

Duke of Url · 19-02-2020 10:17pm

wadacrack wrote: »

What is your point about the 2%. Do you genuinely think that is low? 1 in 50 will die so its obviously not comparable to the flu

1 in 50 people with COVID19 will die is not proven.

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 10:23pm

Duke of Url wrote: »

1 in 50 people with COVID19 will die is not proven.

Outside Hubei it is considerably lower - in other Chinese provinces its averaging about 1% if not lower

Drumpot · 19-02-2020 10:31pm

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1116379/

Good to see this start to be discussed more by people in authority.

Speaking on RTÉ's Drivetime, Dr Ronan Glynn reiterated the view of the department that he "would not be surprised if Ireland had a confirmed case of the virus."

No panic , nothing to get overly concerned about right now but if it comes here, we are prepared. Good message to start communicating. I wonder have the headlines about Irish people on infected ships pushed them to start this sort of exercise, no harm if it did.

Duke of Url · 19-02-2020 10:36pm

fritzelly wrote: »

Outside Hubei it is considerably lower - in other Chinese provinces its averaging about 1% if not lower

It’s still not proven. You can’t have a % death rate without knowing how many people have the virus.

They don’t know how many people would test positive in Habei because they can’t test everyone.

It’s believed that the comfirmed cases represents a tiny % of the overall number of people who would test positive if you tested the whole population of Habei.

BloodBath · 19-02-2020 10:39pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

actually 1 in 50 have died so far while 75% of people infected are still open cases. Do you think that out of those 75% of people (46,000) no one else is going to die?

I pointed out to your failure in logic and statistics earlier. Here it is again.

As the death rate goes up in that number so too will the infected and recovered in somewhat the same proportion. The % trend however is downwards. How much of this is down to Chinese intervention is open to debate.

It also does not take into account unconfirmed cases which some groups are estimating but it is not accounted for at all by the WHO. It's almost impossible to calculate this number but it should be at least 100% of the confirmed cases looking at similar infections.

This will increase the R0 number and lower the death rate when they can somewhat estimate it. It will never be accurate though.

wadacrack wrote: »

That has nothing to do with what I asked you. You compared a virus with a 2% death rate to the flu? Its strange as the flu is no where near that rate

As it's been pointed out to you and others several times already the flu number of 0.1% takes into account an estimate of undiagnosed infections which far exceeds the confirmed ones. The corona number is only from confirmed cases with no use of an estimate of an unconfirmed %.

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

You’re wasting your time with that poster.

I'm wasting my time with you and others here who are clueless.

Fr_Dougal · 19-02-2020 10:44pm

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1116379/

Good to see this start to be discussed more by people in authority.

Speaking on RTÉ's Drivetime, Dr Ronan Glynn reiterated the view of the department that he "would not be surprised if Ireland had a confirmed case of the virus."

No panic , nothing to get overly concerned about right now but if it comes here, we are prepared. Good message to start communicating. I wonder have the headlines about Irish people on infected ships pushed them to start this sort of exercise, no harm if it did.

Good article. He has also confirmed the death rate.

at the moment the fatality rate of Covid-19 is 2%."

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 10:48pm

Duke of Url wrote: »

It’s still not proven. You can’t have a % death rate without knowing how many people have the virus.

They don’t know how many people would test positive in Habei because they can’t test everyone.

It’s believed that the comfirmed cases represents a tiny % of the overall number of people who would test positive if you tested the whole population of Habei.

They are using the 2.x% based on the total everywhere

Remove Hubei from the equation since outside it deaths are minuscule then you get a CFR 0.7%

That is a much happier number - unless deaths suddenly ramp up everywhere else that is a more realistic figure. Forget Hubei as it is skewing the ratio's for something that is centered on itself

Charles Babbage · 19-02-2020 10:54pm

The more severe cases may respond to treatment, in Hubei the system is overloaded, while treatment is possible in other parts of China and in Singapore etc.

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-02-2020 10:55pm

No data is definate, or will ever be final, for this dynamic event.
However the best available large set of data shows for Hubei (largest region with longest duration)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

62k currently confirmed, with most in an unknown state
I..e 'status:pending' (each case may take weeks or perhaps months before final status can be assigned)

15k recovered and 2k dead
So of the 'final status' we know of, 13.333% didn't ever recover.

igCorcaigh · 19-02-2020 10:58pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The more severe cases may respond to treatment, in Hubei the system is overloaded, while treatment is possible in other parts of China and in Singapore etc.

Yes, that's what I'm thinking.

But every health system will surely get overloaded if the ratio of severe cases of around 10 to 20 pc keep up like this.

That's my concern.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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