new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-02-2020 02:28PM

The virus can be spread through droplets AND aerosol.

That means a sneeze (droplets), or a dry cough (aerosol), the big difference is aerosol particles can be much smaller and somewhat airborne for a short time.
When you have small interior rooms on a crusie liner using powerful air-con, that may well spread aerosol particulates.

Not forgetting direct surface contact, via all othe body secretions (including sweat), entering mainly via the touching of the face (eyes/nose/mouth).

Nijmegen · 19-02-2020 02:28PM

Oh here we are back at "Ahh is it really serious." Government agencies have a job to preserve public order, which allows them to more effectively deal with the problem. So look at what they do rather than simply listening to their soothing words.

There's nothing to worry about, but:

We've cut out 90% of international air travel capacity to China
10% of the worlds population is on lockdown
They're spraying the streets with disinfectant
Many countries have banned travel, rather than simply advised against it
Citizens are being flown to the likes of military bases for quarantine when evacuated
Factories and businesses have been so affected that production lines are shutting down and companies are warning of shortages for all sorts
The public aspect of the Tokyo marathon, in a country with relatively few cases, has been cancelled and less than 1% of participants will now run

Like, sit back and say "It'll all be grand yeah", but maybe let people who think they might be wise to buy in a few provisions away with themselves just in case. The actions of government officials are not actions of people sitting in their offices saying "This? This is nothing."

givyjoe · 19-02-2020 02:36PM

tuxy wrote: »

The WHO have not confirmed it. How was it confirmed?
By some of the posters on this thread perhaps?

Possible, but not yet confirmed it seems. Who confirmed this wasn't easily transmissible??

Fcuk me, what an overreaction by the Chinese government so. What are we up to now, 730 million ordered to stay at home :rolleyes:.

There is a mind boggling cohort of people here desperate to believe this isn't something to worry about, isn't a big deal, will be all over soon etc etc.

Snow Garden · 19-02-2020 02:40PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Every expert in this field is very worried about this. Planning ahead for the worst case scenario is not a bad idea at all

Yeah we're all "very worried" about stuff.

Here is an Irish expert who doesn't appear to be "very worried"

rte.ie/news/2020/0218/1116149-coronavirus-questions-answered/

It's possible we will get a small number of cases

There is a minimal to negligible risk of acquiring coronavirus in Ireland at this time

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 02:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Your analysis of the data is reading a few figures of a non-official website. Why are you not taking the remaining cases and then taking their age groups and associated death rate statistics we have so far, and then adding the percentage of cases which are never reported, to come to your figure?

Do you believe you have a more accurate figure than professional organisations, based on the data you are using and your methods?

I don't have any data. I'm pulling stats from Workdometer, which uses the data that is currently open to the public, it's the same data you will find anywhere else
What do you mean by "taking the remaining cases"? Any case that hasn't been reported won't show up in these stats. Stats are based on actual data only

givyjoe · 19-02-2020 02:40PM

PhantomHat wrote: »

This thread is just going through periods of blind optimism and then it switches to waves of overreacting despair and then back again.

Genuinely interested to see any posts you can quote even remotely close to this description. Blind optimism on the other hand seems to be rampant.

odyssey06 · 19-02-2020 02:40PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

Oh here we are back at "Ahh is it really serious." Government agencies have a job to preserve public order, which allows them to more effectively deal with the problem. So look at what they do rather than simply listening to their soothing words.

There's nothing to worry about, but:
We've cut out 90% of international air travel capacity to China

10% of the worlds population is on lockdown

They're spraying the streets with disinfectant

Many countries have banned travel, rather than simply advised against it

Citizens are being flown to the likes of military bases for quarantine when evacuated

Factories and businesses have been so affected that production lines are shutting down and companies are warning of shortages for all sorts

The public aspect of the Tokyo marathon, in a country with relatively few cases, has been cancelled and less than 1% of participants will now run

Like, sit back and say "It'll all be grand yeah", but maybe let people who think they might be wise to buy in a few provisions away with themselves just in case. The actions of government officials are not actions of people sitting in their offices saying "This? This is nothing."

All those actions have been taken by countries who have some capability of dealing with large scale emergencies.

In Ireland, we don't have the capability to deal with a full blown crisis so we're terrified of something that looks like one ... and anyone who says I think I see one coming must be a scaremongerer.

The latest interview I heard was Ireland will be grand... as long as we only get 10 - 20 cases.

MD1990 · 19-02-2020 02:41PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

People here are actually stockpiling food and provisions because they foresee some kind of zombie apocalypse in the coming months.

Ridiculous.

0 confirmed cases here so far.

These people will send everyone into a panic if a case happens here.

Snow Garden · 19-02-2020 02:43PM

MD1990 wrote: »

Ridiculous.

0 confirmed cases here so far.

These people will send everyone into a panic if a case happens here.

Ah shure if we do get a few cases here this thread will absolutely lose it's shiit

And if we get a single death from this new corona virus, they'll be digging bunkers and shooting strangers.

gozunda · 19-02-2020 02:45PM

BloodBath wrote: »

The people over reacting are the same ones spreading fear and disinformation to the uninformed which doesn't help reduce panic at all.

Username checks out;)

Drumpot · 19-02-2020 02:50PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yeah we're all "very worried" about stuff.

Here is an Irish expert.

rte.ie/news/2020/0218/1116149-coronavirus-questions-answered/

I put that link up earlier, just without the pejorative insinuation. Interestingly, your own quote says:

There is a minimal to negligible risk of acquiring coronavirus in Ireland at this time

I would agree with that , at this time, while the virus does not appear to be spreading much outside of China there is a negligible risk in Ireland. I accept that and think its a reasonable stance to take. I have decided to take some small steps to mitigate this small but potential chance this virus does start spreading more then we can control. I am not building a bunker in my back garden, but have thrown a few euros at a few things in case there is a bit of panic. Hopefully , by being prepared more, I will be able to inform others and not be a part of the panic that will ensue if it starts creating serious problems on our healthcare system.

I would also take the same stance on my house burning down. There is a negligible risk that this will happen any given year, less so as neither myself nor my wife smoke (or even drink much) therefore we are by default less likely to have moments of being negligent or not sober to be careful. But I have house insurance to rebuild my house if it does burn down, a smoke alarm as an early warning device and a small fire extinguisher under my sink in the Kitchen that may hopefully help me prevent a potential fire from going out of control. Is that me panicking or just taking some measures that in the highly unlikely chance of a fire in my house I have some safety nets to help reduce the impact?

tuxy · 19-02-2020 02:58PM

givyjoe wrote: »

Possible, but not yet confirmed it seems. Who confirmed this wasn't easily transmissible??

Fcuk me, what an overreaction by the Chinese government so. What are we up to now, 730 million ordered to stay at home :rolleyes:.

There is a mind boggling cohort of people here desperate to believe this isn't something to worry about, isn't a big deal, will be all over soon etc etc.

You have said it has been confirmed that it is airborne.
I would just like a source. Why are people so offended and reluctant when asked for a source?

givyjoe wrote: »

Genuinely interested to see any posts you can quote even remotely close to this description. Blind optimism on the other hand seems to be rampant.

You must admit that many are posting misinformation, saying it is airborne is the perfect example of this.

Snow Garden · 19-02-2020 03:01PM

Drumpot wrote: »

I put that link up earlier, just without the pejorative insinuation. Interestingly, your own quote says:

I would agree with that , at this time, while the virus does not appear to be spreading much outside of China there is a negligible risk in Ireland. I accept that and think its a reasonable stance to take. I have decided to take some small steps to mitigate this small but potential chance this virus does start spreading more then we can control. I am not building a bunker in my back garden, but have thrown a few euros at a few things in case there is a bit of panic. Hopefully , by being prepared more, I will be able to inform others and not be a part of the panic that will ensue if it starts creating serious problems on our healthcare system.

I would also take the same stance on my house burning down. There is a negligible risk that this will happen any given year, less so as neither myself nor my wife smoke (or even drink much) therefore we are by default less likely to have moments of being negligent or not sober to be careful. But I have house insurance to rebuild my house if it does burn down, a smoke alarm as an early warning device and a small fire extinguisher under my sink in the Kitchen that may hopefully help me prevent a potential fire from going out of control. Is that me panicking or just taking some measures that in the highly unlikely chance of a fire in my house I have some safety nets to help reduce the impact?

Well that rambling boy scout anecdote has me thoroughly convinced to go out and stockpile food in the anticipation that this negligible risk will lead to a breakdown of society and empty shops.

Or maybe I will just accept the risk and continue living my life as normal.

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-02-2020 03:03PM

tuxy wrote: »

You have said it has been confirmed that it is airborne.
I would just like a source. Why are people so offended and reluctant when asked for a source?

Does not need a source.

It can be (temporarly) airbone, as it can be spread through droplets AND aerosol. Also via surface contact.
It's a different type of (stable)airborneness when compared to a gas, but aerosols are also airbone by definition.

Mic 1972 · 19-02-2020 03:04PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Well that rambling boy scout anecdote has me thoroughly convinced to go out and stockpile food in the anticipation that this negligible risk will lead to a breakdown of society and empty shops.

Or maybe I will just accept the risk and continue living my life as normal.

the decision is entirely up to you

tuxy · 19-02-2020 03:05PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Does not need a source.

It can be (temporarly) airbone, as it can be spread through droplets AND aerosol. Also via surface contact.

But the WHO is saying there is no evidence that it is airborne.
Perhaps there is evidence of it spreading through the air not contained in droplets. But that would be a new development I am not aware of yet.
A source would be appreciated.

Drumpot · 19-02-2020 03:08PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Well that rambling boy scout anecdote has me thoroughly convinced to go out and stockpile food in the anticipation that this negligible risk will lead to a breakdown of society and empty shops.

Is this the only way you can converse on this topic? When a person reverts to insulting somebody to perhaps avoid meaningful engagement, one has to wonder if they lack the capacity for objective reasoning. Can you discuss this without reverting to insults please ?

Call Me Jimmy · 19-02-2020 03:11PM

tuxy wrote: »

You have said it has been confirmed that it is airborne.
I would just like a source. Why are people so offended and reluctant when asked for a source?

You must admit that many are posting misinformation, saying it is airborne is the perfect example of this.

Warning I cannot confirm the source so it could be AI generated or from a different outbreak:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czTONW70IX0

BloodBath · 19-02-2020 03:11PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Does not need a source.

It can be (temporarly) airbone, as it can be spread through droplets AND aerosol. Also via surface contact.
It's a different type of (stable)airborneness when compared to a gas, but aerosols are also airbone by definition.

It doesn't affect the sinus so aerosol is not really a problem outside of normal sneezing.

Somedaythefire · 19-02-2020 03:15PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Does not need a source.

It can be (temporarly) airbone, as it can be spread through droplets AND aerosol. Also via surface contact.
It's a different type of (stable)airborneness when compared to a gas, but aerosols are also airbone by definition.

That's not airborne. Airborne means the virus can survive through air circulation. If it was airborne you'd get infected just by being in the same area as someone who has it. With this, and pretty much all coronaviruses, you need direct contact with the droplets from an infected person, or to touch and transfer those droplets off surface to your nose or mouth.

givyjoe · 19-02-2020 03:15PM

tuxy wrote: »

You have said it has been confirmed that it is airborne.
I would just like a source. Why are people so offended and reluctant when asked for a source?

I literally just said it was possible, but not confirmed, i.e. my earlier point about it being confirmed is not correct. Go have a google! I'm not offended. I actually can't find the the source I was reading stating it was possible, so a different news source quoting the WHO who haven't confirmed/rule out airborne transmission yet, stating more studies/data is required.

The CDC's own site is hardly conclusive with how its spreading.

Question for you, do you believe this virus is NOT easily transmissible and if you do, why? This is the crux of the baseless point that I disagreed with it. The reality of what has happened clearly contradicts this unfounded notion that it isn't extremely easily spread. That is the point that I was making, regardless of confirmation of exact forms of transmission, it's quite clearly easily transmissible.

givyjoe · 19-02-2020 03:21PM

tuxy wrote: »

You have said it has been confirmed that it is airborne.
I would just like a source. Why are people so offended and reluctant when asked for a source?

You must admit that many are posting misinformation, saying it is airborne is the perfect example of this.

That is complete and utter nonsense. The airborne theory was literally reported in mainstream media new broadcasts, as was the original theory of transmission from the asymptomatic patient in Germany. Commenting on those reports is clearly not panicking, its ridiculous to even infer that. Again, no posts I have seen could remotely be construed as panicking.

Ps. Please create a new post instead of wholesale additions to your original after the fact.

tuxy · 19-02-2020 03:22PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Warning I cannot confirm the source so it could be AI generated or from a different outbreak:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czTONW70IX0

While that is better than most who post no source at all, it is an official press conference so it should available on official news source. I had a quick look and could not find it yet.
I would be worried if the WHO were to contradict their official written statements during a press conference.

tuxy · 19-02-2020 03:23PM

givyjoe wrote: »

That is complete and utter nonsense. The airborne theory was literally reported in mainstream media new broadcasts, as was the original theory of transmission from the asymptomatic patient in Germany. Commenting on those reports is clearly not panicking, its ridiculous to even infer that. Again, no posts I have seen could remotely be construed as panicking.

Source?
The WHO still say it is not airborne, are there other health organisations contradicting this?

pc7 · 19-02-2020 03:23PM

Bloody hell what’s happened in here? Is everyone hangry over lunchtime? I haven’t seen anyone scaremongering or panicking. It’s been a fairly well discussed topic (it is a discussion board after all) with both sides ‘nothing to see here’ to ‘throw a few bits in the press’ Incase we need to stay in for a bit. I’ve found it a mostly interesting thread with lots of good sources and info (and some that looks fake so I make my own call on it) of a potential threat not just physically but even economically for the world. Absolutely no need for the agro being posted at all, can we just get back to as we were and be thankful we aren’t in Wuhan/Hubei!

tuxy · 19-02-2020 03:25PM

pc7 wrote: »

Absolutely no need for the agro being posted at all, can we just get back to as we were and be thankful we aren’t in Wuhan/Hubei!

Is it ago to ask for a source when someone is posting information that can not be found easily on google?

19-02-2020 03:26PM

Drumpot wrote: »

I would also take the same stance on my house burning down. There is a negligible risk that this will happen any given year, less so as neither myself nor my wife smoke (or even drink much) therefore we are by default less likely to have moments of being negligent or not sober to be careful. But I have house insurance to rebuild my house if it does burn down, a smoke alarm as an early warning device and a small fire extinguisher under my sink in the Kitchen that may hopefully help me prevent a potential fire from going out of control. Is that me panicking or just taking some measures that in the highly unlikely chance of a fire in my house I have some safety nets to help reduce the impact?

Yes but the real question is 'are you more likely to die of a normal flu than a house fire?' If yes then sure you may throw out your fire alarm!

Sorry couldn't resist!

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-02-2020 03:28PM

Somedaythefire wrote: »

That's not airborne. Airborne means the virus can survive through air circulation. If it was airborne you'd get infected just by being in the same area as someone who has it. With this, and pretty much all coronaviruses, you need direct contact with the droplets from an infected person, or to touch and transfer those droplets off surface to your nose or mouth.

Point was that aerosols can be 'temporarly suspended' in the air, unlike droplets which won't be suspended for very long as they're larger/heavier.

If you spray air freshener in a room, leave the room, then come back after 20mins chances are you can still smell the flowers as the aerosol is still suspended. After 3hrs, not so much if at all.

SeaBreezes · 19-02-2020 03:31PM

Somedaythefire wrote: »

It has absolutely not been confirmed that it's airborne. It is said to spread through respiratory droplets.

There's a good discussion on it here:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/unmasked-experts-explain-necessary-respiratory-protection-covid-19P

Milton cautions that the difference between aerosol and droplet transmission is largely in name only. Respiratory droplets, emitted with a sneeze or a cough, are commonly thought to land within 6 feet of patients and are too large to be buoyant on air currents. Respiratory aerosols are droplets too, Milton said, but smaller and light enough to travel farther.

"You cannot tell the difference epidemiologically between something aerosol transmitted by weak sources and large droplet spray," said Milton. "They behave so similar, it's very hard to pick up the difference."

He said he suspects the capability of long-distance transmission with COVID-19 will be connected to source strength, or how symptomatic a person is.

19-02-2020 03:35PM

What I found interesting in that rte q&a was this quote:

"It's possible we will get a small number of cases, but if we believe the figures it looks like the Chinese authorities have done a good job containing the virus," he said.

"If we believe the figures". Interesting wording. I understand of course that the figures can change with retrospect after the event. Not to mention errors can be made and so on but to use the words 'if' and 'believe' suggests (to me) that maybe this expert doesn't believe the Chinese and if he doesn't believe it then does that undermine him saying we'll only get "a small number of cases".

I don't know, the wording just stood out to me. If he'd said "if the figures are correct" it wouldn't have.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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