new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

hmmm · 15-02-2020 09:49PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Actually it WAS 20% for the last month of closed case mortality rates. They changed how they include cases now, so active cases have raised,
But death by pneumonia or organ failure is still not counted as a
Coronavirus case. That has resulted in the mortality rate lowering
By 1% every day since WHO got international boots on the ground.

That's not correct, they are now including people who are clinically diagnosed but are testing negative. There's going to be over-counting of deaths if anything.

Plus the current % is the CFR - i.e. the number of people who present to a hospital and are diagnosed. These invariably are the most sick. There is likely to be a huge amount of people who have the virus, and will not present to hospital because their symptoms are mild.

Scrabbles38 · 15-02-2020 09:50PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Actually it WAS 20% for the last month of closed case mortality rates. They changed how they include cases now, so active cases have raised,
But death by pneumonia or organ failure is still not counted as a
Coronavirus case. That has resulted in the mortality rate lowering
By 1% every day since WHO got international boots on the ground.

Right so it’s not 20%... not all pneumonia deaths will be because of the coronavirus... in 2018 in Ireland deaths per 100,000 of population to pneumonia where 1084... if it comes here people will still die of pneumonia that’s not connected to the virus... same in China at mo

15-02-2020 09:50PM

Carol25 wrote: »

Anyone following this thread work on the front line in medical care in Ireland? I’ve noticed a lot of children with quite a ‘dose’ this past week, persistent coughing, sinus, stomach, the works. They’ve all had the flu already before Christmas...just wondering diagnostically do the HSE keep records of what is currently doing the rounds...as I believe the Coronavirus if it is confirmed here will sneak in unawares during peak cough/cold season...

I don't work in paeds unfortunately but it is RSV season.

McGiver · 15-02-2020 09:51PM

From the Chinese health agency (can they be trusted) as of 14 February.

Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainlyÂ male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly,Â more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

hmmm · 15-02-2020 09:52PM

Patients from the Diamond Cruise liner being hospitalised in ..... errr ..... Fukashima.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200214/k10012286481000.html

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 15-02-2020 09:53PM

Carol25 wrote: »

Anyone following this thread work on the front line in medical care in Ireland? I’ve noticed a lot of children with quite a ‘dose’ this past week, persistent coughing, sinus, stomach, the works. They’ve all had the flu already before Christmas...just wondering diagnostically do the HSE keep records of what is currently doing the rounds...as I believe the Coronavirus if it is confirmed here will sneak in unawares during peak cough/cold season...

Actually there was a thread on the pre Christmas dose that was doing the rounds, seemed to be quite rampant at the time somewhere between a very bad cold and the flu.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058041781

We all got that bad dose here, I think you are right and wouldn't be surprised to learn that if or when coronavirus comes here that it's already been around a while before anyone realises.

cameramonkey · 15-02-2020 09:53PM

hmmm wrote: »

Patients from the Diamond Cruise liner being hospitalised in ..... errr ..... Fukashima.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200214/k10012286481000.html

Out of the frying pan into the radio active fire.

15-02-2020 09:56PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's true, it really has its own characteristics.

Is organ damage caused by low blood oxygen or by the virus itself?

I was reading one report somewhere that one of the more common serious aftermaths is pulmonary fibrosis, where scar tissue builds up progressively in damaged lungs. The Corr singers mother died from an idiopathic (cause not determined) pulmonary fibrosis whilst awaiting lung transplant. A cleaner in my office died of same thing, ironically we had complained of years of diesel fumes penetrating into our work place. Some people would likely be more prone to this than others.

I also read reports where people suffered PTSD following the SARS 1 virus. No doubt some survivors of this will suffer similar consequence after such a severe illness.

SeaBreezes · 15-02-2020 09:56PM

hmmm wrote: »

That's not correct, they are now including people who are clinically diagnosed but are testing negative. There's going to be over-counting of deaths if anything.

Plus the current % is the CFR - i.e. the number of people who present to a hospital and are diagnosed. These invariably are the most sick. There is likely to be a huge amount of people who have the virus, and will not present to hospital because their symptoms are mild.

Historically deaths by organ failure and pneumonia were not included. So it will take a week or more to get a more accurate CFR. Hopefully the downward trend will stay consistent.

WE hope there are people at home with mild symptoms, nobody knows. Home deaths are not counted as cases either. So those numbers are anyone's guess educated or no.

We only know of 2 people so far outside of China who are asymptomatic and have tested positive for Coronavirus, again hopefully more will turn up..
But going on current stats..

odyssey06 · 15-02-2020 09:59PM

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

Right so it’s not 20%... not all pneumonia deaths will be because of the coronavirus... in 2018 in Ireland deaths per 100,000 of population to pneumonia where 1084... if it comes here people will still die of pneumonia that’s not connected to the virus... same in China at mo

So subtract the average number of deaths from pneumonia for the month in question to establish a baseline versus current deaths... to give an approximate indication e.g. we're seeing a 5% or 25% or 500% increase in pneumonia related deaths. Is there a statistically significant difference?

Has China done this? Without that, current figures are not usable.

15-02-2020 10:06PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

We only know of 2 people so far outside of China who are asymptomatic and have tested positive for Coronavirus, again hopefully more will turn up..
But going on current stats..

This would also mean more asymptotic carriers

SeaBreezes · 15-02-2020 10:12PM

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

Right so it’s not 20%... not all pneumonia deaths will be because of the coronavirus... in 2018 in Ireland deaths per 100,000 of population to pneumonia where 1084... if it comes here people will still die of pneumonia that’s not connected to the virus... same in China at mo

Agreed. But it was the LARGE number of people dying from pneumonia, that first alerted the front line that this was more than 'viral pneumonia' back in Dec.

So, a comparison of people who died from 'pneumonia' (as the Japanese man had on his death cert) or organ failure, would give a more accurate count.

Or, to include the deaths at home, an account of numbers cremated...

But I really really hope Im jumping at shadows. I know of at least 3 people, whom I love, who would be at risk from a disease that attacks the lungs.
I am very grateful that for kids, it seems to be a mild flu.

Does anyone know how long the quarantine goes on for?
When can they go back to work/normal life?

gozunda · 15-02-2020 10:19PM

McGiver wrote: »

From the Chinese health agency (can they be trusted) as of 14 February.

One of the first papers about the outbreak

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=featured_coronavirus

MD1990 · 15-02-2020 10:30PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1228808084912529408

cases are going down.

But deaths are still very high. I think the mortality rate is higher than 1%

hmmm · 15-02-2020 10:32PM

Definite down-trend now. It'd be ironic if China got theirs under control, and had to close their borders to the rest of the world to keep it out.

Charles Babbage · 15-02-2020 10:32PM

Lyanna Salty Toadstool wrote: »

Actually there was a thread on the pre Christmas dose that was doing the rounds, seemed to be quite rampant at the time somewhere between a very bad cold and the flu.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058041781

We all got that bad dose here, I think you are right and wouldn't be surprised to learn that if or when coronavirus comes here that it's already been around a while before anyone realises.

This is not a reasonable presumption. There was a dose around and a proportion of people (old, existing condition etc) with this would have been at risk and would have been tested. There was no evidence of a new virus, even after the event.

Scrabbles38 · 15-02-2020 10:33PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

So subtract the average number of deaths from pneumonia for the month in question to establish a baseline versus current deaths... to give an approximate indication e.g. we're seeing a 5% or 25% or 500% increase in pneumonia related deaths. Is there a statistically significant difference?

Has China done this? Without that, current figures are not usable.

I agree no figures are useable from China... we have to watch what is happening outside of China...people who want you to believe it’s 20% mortality rate ... there figures are wrong ..

fritzelly · 15-02-2020 10:33PM

Only 724 confirmed cases
Additional severe cases - zero

Curious

SeaBreezes · 15-02-2020 10:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Dr McConkey on Séan O’Rourke has just described it as SARS Coronavirus 2. Rather an alarming term.

Thats its name..

COVID-19 is the disease it causes, and SARS-CoV-2 is the virus name..

Edit: Sorry just realised this is an older post. Apologies.

tuxy · 15-02-2020 10:58PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Thats its name..

COVID-19 is the disease it causes, and SARS-CoV-2 is the virus name..

Edit: Sorry just realised this is an older post. Apologies.

Well we have know it's a virus that can cause Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome since the info leaked from China. So even before the official name it was accurate to describe it as a SARS type of virus.

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 15-02-2020 11:04PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

This is not a reasonable presumption. There was a dose around and a proportion of people (old, existing condition etc) with this would have been at risk and would have been tested. There was no evidence of a new virus, even after the event.

This particular dose was before anyone knew about the current coronavirus.

Say if I come down with a really bad dose next week am I heading to the doctors or hospital so that they can test me for coronavirus? I think not, I wouldn't assume I have it and would treat it as I would any other cold or flu etc.

So in reality it could be possible for it to be spread around quite a bit before someone gets very sick and tests positive.

tuxy · 15-02-2020 11:08PM

Lyanna Salty Toadstool wrote: »

This particular dose was before anyone knew about the current coronavirus.

Say if I come down with a really bad dose next week am I heading to the doctors or hospital so that they can test me for coronavirus? I think not, I wouldn't assume I have it and would treat it as I would any other cold or flu etc.

So in reality it could be possible for it to be spread around quite a bit before someone gets very sick and tests positive.

Not much they can do for you unless critical then oxygen, anti-viral(not sure if ti helps yet also antibiotics if you get a second bacterial infection.

Many people will go to work and work away even while ill.
Should people stay at home now? Would employers be more understanding?

gozunda · 15-02-2020 11:38PM

Lyanna Salty Toadstool wrote: »

This particular dose was before anyone knew about the current coronavirus.

Say if I come down with a really bad dose next week am I heading to the doctors or hospital so that they can test me for coronavirus? I think not, I wouldn't assume I have it and would treat it as I would any other cold or flu etc.

So in reality it could be possible for it to be spread around quite a bit before someone gets very sick and tests positive.

I reckon that's one of the significant risk factors with regard to the spread of the disease globally. People will just think they don't have the virus.

A mild-to-moderate coronavirus infection is like the common cold, according to the CDC. Worldwide, people get sick from the four coronavirus types that cause milder infections every day. But three types—the ones that cause SARS, MERS, and Wuhan Coronavirus--have the potential to be fatal, and each of these has led to a significant global outbreak.

https://www.onhealth.com/content/1/respiratory_infections_causes

tuxy · 15-02-2020 11:43PM

That's true and for the people who don't go critical they tend not to feel too bad so probably will just go about their day.

wellwhynot · 15-02-2020 11:44PM

Zenify wrote: »

https://youtu.be/Bb4BlkOhlXs

Dr. JOHN

Mostly good news that children aren't having bad symptoms

My children will be fine but we may not be. That is my biggest worry.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-02-2020 11:46PM

...

Kermit.de.frog · 15-02-2020 11:47PM

For people quoting Zerohedge articles it's not a good source for anything.

The purpose and agenda of that site is to get investors to buy gold.

How do you get investors to buy gold? You stoke panic.

I wouldn't be relying on it at all.

gozunda · 15-02-2020 11:56PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

For people quoting Zerohedge articles it's not a good source for anything.

The purpose and agenda of that site is to get investors to buy gold.How do you get investors to buy gold? You stoke panic. I wouldn't be relying on it at all.

?

Zenify · 15-02-2020 11:56PM

wellwhynot wrote: »

My children will be fine but we may not be. That is my biggest worry.

Hopefully the virus will become righteous and leave no orphans behind.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-02-2020 11:59PM

Maybe posted already but the hastily built hospitals - not only are they mostly empty but have been encountering other problems...

https://twitter.com/IsChinar/status/1228576289004675072

https://twitter.com/IsChinar/status/1228670320455962625

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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