new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

fritzelly · 14-02-2020 12:14AM

lolanacho wrote: »

I’m a bit confused...... I thought people could pass on the virus even if they didn’t have any symptoms!

RTE said tonight that that was not true.

Don't know for sure yet - there are indications you can
To know for sure you would need to know someone has the virus and monitor them...
Chances are highly likely like other coronaviruses

The bigger worry is the resistance of the virus to survive outside the body

Quantum Erasure · 14-02-2020 12:18AM

dominatinMC wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0213/1115112-coronavirus-schools/

Meanwhile, this is the kind of virtue-signalling, social justice warrior, contrite bull****e that RTE consider to be the important aspect of the Corona Virus..

A primary school principal has spoken out about the negative impact anxiety about the coronavirus is having upon children at her school.

She has told RTÉ News that schoolchildren have begun calling the virus "the China virus". She says that a small number of children at the school have engaged in "prank behaviour" which has caused offence to children of Chinese origin and their families.

A-tishoo! A-tishoo!
We all fall down

saabsaab · 14-02-2020 12:22AM

'Coronavirus can be spread through people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of the illness, the director of the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention said Thursday.
Dr. Robert Redfield confirmed reports out of China that the virus can spread when the person is still asymptomatic, according to CNN.
“There’s been good communication with our colleagues to confirm asymptomatic infection, to confirm asymptomatic transmission, to be able to get a better handle on the clinical spectrum of illness in China,” Redfield told the outlet.
Redfield said it’s not known how much the asymptomatic cases are contributing to the spread of the virus — which has sickened more than 60,000 people worldwide — but the discovery is concerning.
“What I’ve learned in the last two weeks is that the spectrum of this illness is much broader than was originally presented. There’s much more asymptomatic illness,” he said.
He added that a number of confirmed cases presented with just a “little sore throat.”

fritzelly · 14-02-2020 12:23AM

Worrying news is the serious/critical patients rising from 7,084 yesterday to 9,638 today
30% increase!
With the increasing death trend this could start to see a massive increase in deaths in the next week

If this starts to hit places outside China then the health systems would be fecked

ObiTwoKenobi · 14-02-2020 12:25AM

New Peak Prosperity video here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01L-SktgzXc

...citing a non-peer-reviewed paper which suggest doubling every 2.4 days and an estimated R0 of 4.7-6.6.

Abstract:
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

fritzelly · 14-02-2020 12:26AM

saabsaab wrote: »

'Coronavirus can be spread through people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of the illness, the director of the Centers for ...

That's a nearly 3 week old report - there is no definitive conclusion yet (and ahem CNN)

cnocbui · 14-02-2020 12:26AM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Perhaps Chinese restaurants are the safest places to socialize now because of the low volume of people going to them

I admire your courage to venture into black humour.

I had this idea for a not the nine o'clock news style comedy skit:

Scene is a crowed, upmarket restaurant: murmured conversations, clinking of cutlery on plates.

The entrance door bursts open, a haggard man dashes in and runs most of the way across the restaurant, when a second man bursts through the door and fires a handgun several times at the first, missing him. The first man pulls a handgun from a concealed holster and returns fire, loosing two shots, also missing, and then turns and flees into the kitchen. The second man pursues.

The diners, who had all stopped eating and had been observing the disturbance with calm annoyance, return to their conversations and meals, seemingly unperturbed.

A moment passes, then one of the diners starts coughing.

Pandemonium erupts, women scream, there's the sound of breaking glass and breaking plates as chairs are pushed back in haste, some toppling backwards with a crash. All the diners rush for the exit in a noisy panic.

saabsaab · 14-02-2020 12:27AM

ObiTwoKenobi wrote: »

New Peak Prosperity video here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01L-SktgzXc

...citing a non-peer-reviewed paper which suggest doubling every 2.4 days and an estimated R0 of 4.7-6.6.

Abstract:
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

Exactly what most are saying here.

gozunda · 14-02-2020 12:34AM

Our man in the Wirral is out....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-GB9EYqAGM

Also his review of his leaving Wuhan, quarantine etc ....

fritzelly · 14-02-2020 12:36AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-GB9EYqAGM

yoytube gozunda

14-02-2020 12:37AM

Talking to my friend tonight in Shanghai, she made a very good point:

- China has the largest smoking population in the world, around 30% of the population smokes. Smoking causes reduced lung capacity, reduced lung health and lower immunity in general.

Which is bad news if you get a respiratory illness which Covid-19 is.

This may explain according to her, somewhat, the high death rate in China, when other countries the death to infected ratio is much lower.

Just my 2 cents.

saabsaab · 14-02-2020 12:37AM

The Wuhan Man?

lolanacho · 14-02-2020 12:37AM

This is the advise given to schools by the HSE:

No symptoms
For a person with no symptoms, there is no need for quarantine (keeping a well person separate from others) for up to 2 weeks after coming to Ireland. There are no restrictions regarding school, pre-school, work or other activities.
If within the last 14 days, your student/child has come to Ireland from Wuhan OR has been in contact with a person diagnosed with novel coronavirus OR has attended a healthcare facility where patients with novel coronavirus are being treated, you (parent or guardian) are asked to make contact with your local Department of Public Health by phone for further advice.

=================================================

As I said yesterday a Chinese student came back to my child’s class after spending two months in China.
After spoken to the principal today he referred me to the HSE website...... and after contacting the HSE I was referred to the HSE Website!!! Totally bizarre.

So the Chinese guy will keep going to school..... I’ve decided to keep my little fella at home until after the break, that’d be two weeks since the Chinese guy arrived back in Ireland.
Mind you, I’m the only one concerned in the whole school, I don’t get it.

fritzelly · 14-02-2020 12:39AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Talking to my friend tonight in Shanghai, she made a very good point:

- China has the largest smoking population in the world, around 30% of the population smokes. Smoking causes reduced lung capacity, reduced lung health and lower immunity in general.

Which is bad news if you get a respiratory illness which Covid-19 is.

This may explain according to her, somewhat, the high death rate in China, when other countries the death to infected ratio is much lower.

Just my 2 cents.

They mentioned the virus affecting men more today on the WHO briefing - hardly surprising when most of them smoke but the women dont

saabsaab · 14-02-2020 12:42AM

lolanacho wrote: »

This is the advise given to schools by the HSE:

No symptoms
For a person with no symptoms, there is no need for quarantine (keeping a well person separate from others) for up to 2 weeks after coming to Ireland. There are no restrictions regarding school, pre-school, work or other activities.
If within the last 14 days, your student/child has come to Ireland from Wuhan OR has been in contact with a person diagnosed with novel coronavirus OR has attended a healthcare facility where patients with novel coronavirus are being treated, you (parent or guardian) are asked to make contact with your local Department of Public Health by phone for further advice.

=================================================

As I said yesterday a Chinese student came back to my child’s class after spending two months in China.
After spoken to the principal today he referred me to the HSE website...... and after contacting the HSE I was referred to the HSE Website!!! Totally bizarre.

So the Chinese guy will keep going to school..... I’ve decided to keep my little fella at home until after the break, that’d be two weeks since the Chinese guy arrived back in Ireland.
Mind you, I’m the only one concerned in the whole school, I don’t get it.

In cases like this you should err on the side of caution as you have. Don't mind what others do. It is hard to know how this is going to turn out here but we have warning from Asia.

fritzelly · 14-02-2020 12:43AM

lolanacho wrote: »

If within the last 14 days, your student/child has come to Ireland from Wuhan OR has been in contact with a person diagnosed with novel coronavirus

This is just the most dumbest advice ever - do they not know that it is relatively widespread in a lot of other countries never mind China itself
They are already trying to find out how people with no Chinese contacts have caught it
And how do you know you have been in contact with someone who has the virus? Tho this is a widespread thing not just in Ireland - beggars belief

ThePopehimself · 14-02-2020 12:51AM

lolanacho wrote: »

This is the advise given to schools by the HSE:

No symptoms
For a person with no symptoms, there is no need for quarantine (keeping a well person separate from others) for up to 2 weeks after coming to Ireland. There are no restrictions regarding school, pre-school, work or other activities.
If within the last 14 days, your student/child has come to Ireland from Wuhan OR has been in contact with a person diagnosed with novel coronavirus OR has attended a healthcare facility where patients with novel coronavirus are being treated, you (parent or guardian) are asked to make contact with your local Department of Public Health by phone for further advice.

=================================================

As I said yesterday a Chinese student came back to my child’s class after spending two months in China.
After spoken to the principal today he referred me to the HSE website...... and after contacting the HSE I was referred to the HSE Website!!! Totally bizarre.

So the Chinese guy will keep going to school..... I’ve decided to keep my little fella at home until after the break, that’d be two weeks since the Chinese guy arrived back in Ireland.
Mind you, I’m the only one concerned in the whole school, I don’t get it.

In your position, I would do EXACTLY the same thing.
What you got was a woefully inadequate response.

The buck stopped nowhere. Common sense surely, at least, should have applied here.

Resting on the 'Official line' ( It's not me - it's the Dept!) is not good enough. Woefully inadequate on the part of the principal - and I'm being reserved.

I hope more follow your stand. I would. It's grossly irresponsible.

The bench mark for every child in that classroom room should -at least- be when mum and dad are living with both children under the same roof 24/7.

AND IF NOT, WHY NOT!???

fritzelly · 14-02-2020 12:51AM

See the bold

gozunda wrote: »

Our man in the Wirral is out....

14-02-2020 12:52AM

lolanacho wrote: »

This is the advise given to schools by the HSE:

No symptoms
For a person with no symptoms, there is no need for quarantine (keeping a well person separate from others) for up to 2 weeks after coming to Ireland. There are no restrictions regarding school, pre-school, work or other activities.
If within the last 14 days, your student/child has come to Ireland from Wuhan OR has been in contact with a person diagnosed with novel coronavirus OR has attended a healthcare facility where patients with novel coronavirus are being treated, you (parent or guardian) are asked to make contact with your local Department of Public Health by phone for further advice.

=================================================

As I said yesterday a Chinese student came back to my child’s class after spending two months in China.
After spoken to the principal today he referred me to the HSE website...... and after contacting the HSE I was referred to the HSE Website!!! Totally bizarre.

So the Chinese guy will keep going to school..... I’ve decided to keep my little fella at home until after the break, that’d be two weeks since the Chinese guy arrived back in Ireland.
Mind you, I’m the only one concerned in the whole school, I don’t get it.

Do you know where in China he's from or where he was? East of china is unaffected.

14-02-2020 12:54AM

fritzelly wrote: »

They mentioned the virus affecting men more today on the WHO briefing - hardly surprising when most of them smoke but the women dont

Chinese smokers by gender:
Men: 58%
Women: 3%

saabsaab · 14-02-2020 12:57AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you know where in China he's from or where he was? East of china is unaffected.

Shouldn't really matter as they will have traveled by air and could have contacted the virus at an airport. Anyway how are they to know?

ThePopehimself · 14-02-2020 01:05AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you know where in China he's from or where he was? East of china is unaffected.

For now, Yes and you have a point but up until yesterday, LONDON wasn't affected and now it is!Now someone there has Covid19 and because she walked straight into A&E, people have to self-Isolate.

Two months in China, with outbreaks happening all over at random...Texas, Russia, France...fact is, China is the epicenter.

Let's say a bloke walks into work tomorrow having spent two months in China - would you, would anyone raise any concerns? Anything?

We are talking about children.

14-02-2020 01:30AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

For now, Yes and you have a point but up until yesterday, LONDON wasn't affected and now it is!Now someone there has Covid19 and because she walked straight into A&E, people have to self-Isolate.

Two months in China, with outbreaks happening all over at random...Texas, Russia, France...fact is, China is the epicenter.

Let's say a bloke walks into work tomorrow having spent two months in China - would you, would anyone raise any concerns? Anything?

We are talking about children.

Context is key. Wuhan in west china, population 11 million is the epicenter of the virus. Shanghai, 800km away from Wuhan in west china is unaffected.

There are multiple infections in Europe, as per your post. Should we limit movement of all Europeans now?

14-02-2020 01:33AM

saabsaab wrote: »

Shouldn't really matter as they will have traveled by air and could have contacted the virus at an airport. Anyway how are they to know?

They have international airports in west china too.

Again, context is key.

lolanacho · 14-02-2020 01:42AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you know where in China he's from or where he was? East of china is unaffected.

Nope, they couldn’t give me “that information”, mind you the teacher told the kids the child is “virus free” because he stayed in Central China!!!

14-02-2020 01:52AM

lolanacho wrote: »

Nope, they couldn’t give me “that information”, mind you the teacher told the kids the child is “virus free” because he stayed in Central China!!!

Nowadays, "i can't give you that information" is code for "i don't know" or "no-one thought to ask".

With that level of ignorance and apathy, I'd be keeping my kid home if I had one.

See my comment earlier about principals who could not care less.

Sidenote: I'd love a kid or two but the primary downside, for me, is having to spend 14+ years dealing with the school system.

ThePopehimself · 14-02-2020 01:58AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Context is key. Wuhan in west china, population 11 million is the epicenter of the virus. Shanghai, 800km away from Wuhan in west china is unaffected.

There are multiple infections in Europe, as per your post. Should we limit movement of all Europeans now?

That would be an interesting question for the OP to pose to the principal; In what part of China did the boy spend the last two months?

That said, on the hypothetical distance from Wuhan to Shanghai thing, the distance from Wuhan to Singapore is 3,432 km...and look what's happening there, 58 infected.

So, if I had to roll the dice, I'd rather not springboard anyone from China, Shanghai or Wuhan, into my child's classroom right now, not after two months there and especially not while his own parents are keeping him away from his sibling, but sending him into school nonetheless.

As per limiting movement, hasn't The Irish Dept OF Foreign Affairs already urged any Irish people intending to travel to China whose presence in the country “is not essential" to "avoid non-essential” travel?

Not quite sure why you would suggest limiting the movement of 'All Europeans'. I would, however, like to have seen the parents in this case keep their child out of school for the 14 days especially as they are keeping him from his sibling.

I would do that.

bodhrandude · 14-02-2020 02:30AM

A BBC piece on the missing Chinese citizen journalists Fang Bin and Chen Qiushi.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51486106

14-02-2020 03:47AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

That would be an interesting question for the OP to pose to the principal; In what part of China did the boy spend the last two months?

That said, on the hypothetical distance from Wuhan to Shanghai thing, the distance from Wuhan to Singapore is 3,432 km...and look what's happening there, 58 infected.

So, if I had to roll the dice, I'd rather not springboard anyone from China, Shanghai or Wuhan, into my child's classroom right now, not after two months there and especially not while his own parents are keeping him away from his sibling, but sending him into school nonetheless.

As per limiting movement, hasn't The Irish Dept OF Foreign Affairs already urged any Irish people intending to travel to China whose presence in the country “is not essential" to "avoid non-essential” travel?

Not quite sure why you would suggest limiting the movement of 'All Europeans'. I would, however, like to have seen the parents in this case keep their child out of school for the 14 days especially as they are keeping him from his sibling.

I would do that.

You missed several of my points.

14-02-2020 04:04AM

NSW Health authorities boarded the Norwegian Jewel at the Overseas Passenger Terminal on Friday morning to test the passenger in accordance with new security protocols to protect against the potential spread of the virus.
The precautionary measure delayed disembarkation for roughly an hour and passengers have since been allowed to get off the ship, a Port Authority spokesman said.
A spokesperson for NSW Health said in a statement that one person aboard the ship had been tested for respiratory illness. The results were expected on Friday afternoon.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/passenger-tested-for-coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-in-sydney-harbour-20200214-p540tp.html

So much for erring on the side of caution

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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