new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

BanditLuke · 13-02-2020 02:16PM

I'm beginning to feel a lot of people i my workplace are now asking questions about this. The same idiots who where sending stupid memes last week in Whatapp groups whilst hundreds of Chinese people where dying in pain now thinking "will i need a mask" and "should i stock up on water and food".

These are the idiots i'm really worried about, the panic merchants.

SSeanSS · 13-02-2020 02:17PM

Looks like there was a huge spike in cases reported yesterday :
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Ubbquittious · 13-02-2020 02:18PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

I'm beginning to feel a lot of people i my workplace are now asking questions about this. The same idiots who where sending stupid memes last week in Whatapp groups whilst hundreds of Chinese people where dying in pain now thinking "will i need a mask" and "should i stock up on water and food".

These are the idiots i'm really worried about, the panic merchants.

Dont worry till it hits Ireland id say. Our overlords will keep the wheels of commerce going as long as they can before going into lockdown

YFlyer · 13-02-2020 02:19PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think a degree of “panic” is inevitable. Individuals respond to situations differently. Some might become dysfunctionally obsessive, whilst at the other end some will go to the grave in denial. Most will have a fair degree of anxiety, it’s how we survive as a species. Those of us who are single individuals without children etc can better afford to become philosophical and whilst taking all reasonable precautions accept the possibility we might become infected, very ill or even die.

I am just after returning from a bit of shopping, and there is most definitely the beginning of a sense of urgency about getting “stocked up”, and with the check-out people using gels. The guy I was talking to says the staff at SuperValu are taking more frequent toilet breaks to wash their hands.

:pac:

Nice handy way of getting breaks.

Ms2011 · 13-02-2020 02:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Mine pops down to 91-93% when I get a bout of atrial fibrillation. On aspirin for it as I could be prone to strokes and there are very small patches of past damage on brain mri. With these commonplace health issues you have to be a bit careful.

Just checked mine there as I have a rotten head cold, blocked nose etc. Still at 97% so not dying just yet

13-02-2020 02:25PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Link to source? Please don't refer to that (signular) study with a sample group of 8 and N1 postive. Non-peer reviewed, and largely unverified, and not a widely supported 'theory'.

In reality older Chinese males can be heavy smokers, also Wuhan was the uncontrolled epicentre (from early to late Dec), hence China/Asia will suffer the most in initial months, as would be expected in such patterns.

This reminds me of a trip to Vietnam when the local guide gave us a great insight into the health of the population. He spoke of the very high burden of liver disease and how his own father and other male members of the family died early from it. Spoke of the prevalence of alcoholism among males where an extremely strong local spirit it gulped down in shots, it’s like paintstripper. Coupled with a prevalence of hepatitis virus this leads to an extraordinary high rate of acute and chronic liver deaths and one can see plenty of small drop-in centres for emergency treatment of bleeding oesophageal varices as a result of cirrhosis. It is not simply because of an inherited weakness of the liver, but the circumstances of the populace.

13-02-2020 02:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f39igl/japan_has_reported_4_new_cases_of_coronavirus_in/

4 more cases in Japan, none have any immediately known links to infected persons.

One of the comments there shows that Japan are being pro-active about getting knowledge about how generally widespread it may be, without people having known contact.

fritzelly · 13-02-2020 02:39PM

Ms2011 wrote: »

Just checked mine there as I have a rotten head cold, blocked nose etc. Still at 97% so not dying just yet

Be sure to let us us know if it reaches 0%

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2020 02:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

This reminds me of a trip to Vietnam when the local guide gave us a great insight into the health of the population. He spoke of the very high burden of liver disease and how his own father and other male members of the family died early from it. Spoke of the prevalence of alcoholism among males where an extremely strong local spirit it gulped down in shots, it’s like paintstripper. Coupled with a prevalence of hepatitis virus this leads to an extraordinary high rate of acute and chronic liver deaths and one can see plenty of small drop-in centres for emergency treatment of bleeding oesophageal varices as a result of cirrhosis. It is not simply because of an inherited weakness of the liver, but the circumstances of the populace.

Agree, a similar poster also claimed Native Indians suffered greatly from alchoholism, as if it was a genetic defect. It's a psychological, enforced cultural and environmental aspects that they have a drink problem.

Likewise you never see a morbib obese person in a fammine, saying 'ah sure I'm just big boned'. Even the big Singer 'Adele' knocked off 7 stone in a few months, due to a psychological switch.

Heavy smokers (lifestyle choice) simply aren't going to factor well in this pandemic.

odyssey06 · 13-02-2020 02:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It is not simply because of an inherited weakness of the liver, but the circumstances of the populace.

And especially if we are talking about a respiratory disease, levels of air pollution if significant enough to have weakened \ damaged lungs could be a factor.
Wuhan's seems to rate moderate to poor.
https://aqicn.org/city/wuhan/

tara73 · 13-02-2020 02:49PM

wakka12 wrote: »

No, she had not recently left the area of Tokyo she lived in.

And yeh^ that is pretty crazy. Cases like this make me think coronavirus is already circulating worldwide. Seriously this woman was sick with coronavirus for over a week just outside Tokyo the biggest city on earth and didnt infect one other person? it seems unbelievable, and who infected her? And she was in a busy hospital for weeks being touched by probably dozens of staff who didnt know she had coronavirus? She was also infectious for at least several days before 21st January,almost a month ago, and that means the person who infected her who was travelling in Tokyo had coronavirus as far back as 21st January and infected her, and that person could have had the virus in Tokyo for weeks before that even.

tbh, I don't believe in the reliability of this coronavirus tests. I couldn't read the article (paywall?) so I don't know how old this woman was, which pre-conditions she might have had. it could be possible she was quiet old, had some health conditions anyway and died of 'normal' pneumonia and the test showing she has this highly infectious coronavirus is just wrong.

This virus is so new, how can we rely 100% on the accurateness of this tests? where do the test kits all come from anyway? Maybe a professional here can answer..Dr. John...:)

dominatinMC · 13-02-2020 02:50PM

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Society will collapse, particularly in a Globalised world. Imagine people in front line services and utilities not turning up to work?

How long would a Power Grid stay up? How long would water systems still run? How long would food still be delivered to the stores with an infection rate that we are seeing in China?

Also, consider this.

China is pretty much a Totalitarian state that is throwing all its resources at this and can't control it. The people there are much more pliant than Western "free" folk so we haven't seen riots or mass panic.

Can you imagine trying to control this in Western Democracies if the infection rates are close to what we are seeing in China?

This kind of scaremongering **** needs to be called out, every bit as much as the posters who are in denial. How can you say this with such gusto and conviction? It may come to pass but, at the moment, we don't know for certainty (as you seem to do) that it will. That kind of over-the-top hyperbolic reaction is not doing any favours to readers/posters on this thread.

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 02:52PM

tara73 wrote: »

tbh, I don't believe in the reliability of this coronavirus tests. I couldn't read the article (paywall?) so I don't know how old this woman was, which pre-conditions she might have had. it could be possible she was quiet old and died of 'normal' pneumonia and the test showing she has this highly infectious coronavirus is just wrong.

This virus is so new, how can we rely 100% on the accurateness of this tests? where do the test kits all come from anyway? Maybe a professional here can answer..Dr. John...:)

She was in her 80's. Well I've heard of false negatives but not any false positives so far. I think they are a lot rarer. The tests administer antibodies I think that react to the disease in question..dont see why they would react to the disease if its not present, false negatives are more common because sometimes there isnt enough of the disease yet developed within the patient to react to the antibodies

There have definitely been issues with kits in some countries but again i think its more the issue of false negatives than false positives

13-02-2020 02:55PM

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135

So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

How can I be the only who spots you're out by two magnitudes of order? Multiple pages later and all these people read this post and accepted that 60k in China equates to 18k in Ireland.

4,500,000 * .00004 = 180

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 180 * .15 = 27
Of these 27 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 27 * .05 = 1.35

VinLieger · 13-02-2020 02:58PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How can I be the only who spots you're out by two magnitudes of order? Multiple pages later and all these people read this post and accepted that 60k in China equates to 18k in Ireland.

4,500,000 * .004 = 180

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 180 * .15 = 27
Of these 27 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 27 * .05 = 1.35

I stopped reading after they tried to extrapolate the infection percentage using the 60k figure vs total Chinese pop.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2020 02:58PM

Personalities or personal habits can also play a factor.

The Brighton 'super-spreader' could simply be a chap that sneezes often with great gusto, without using elbow or tissues. Nothing else genetic or otherwise.
Thus an unconscious habitual factor, which suddenly turns the average generally well-meaning person, suddenly transformed into a devious super-spreader of virus material.

For some reason everytime I'm in the supermarket there is someone that sneezes very loudly in the next Isle.
Don't even think it's my Hai-Karate aftershave or peanut-free pockets.

Stark · 13-02-2020 02:59PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

For some reason everytime I'm in the supermarket there is someone that sneezes very loudly in the next Isle.
Don't even think it's my Hai-Karate aftershave or peanut-free pockets.

I like to sneeze on my hands and then do the touch and squeeze test on every piece of exposed fruit/bread loaves in the supermarket.

Snow Garden · 13-02-2020 03:00PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

For some reason everytime I'm in the supermarket there is someone that sneezes very loudly in the next Isle.

You can hear people sneezing in the UK?

This is very worrying....

SeaBreezes · 13-02-2020 03:02PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Agree, a similar poster also claimed Native Indians suffered greatly from alchoholism, as if it was a genetic defect. It's a psychological, enforced cultural and environmental aspects that they have a drink problem.

Likewise you never see a morbib obese person in a fammine, saying 'ah sure I'm just big boned'. Even the big Singer 'Adele' knocked off 7 stone in a few months, due to a psychological switch.

Heavy smokers (lifestyle choice) simply aren't going to factor well in this pandemic.

Though it is true that differing Ethnicity can have an outcome on how you are affected by the Flu ... as evidenced by the severe effect Spanish Flu had on ethnic populations.

A recent study on the Maori population:
Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3–5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3310086/

creditcarder · 13-02-2020 03:02PM

christ, what a ****show if half of this is true.

edit: Yeah, i tried to link this but it linked the above video for some reason.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtlNI-lJTgE

creditcarder · 13-02-2020 03:04PM

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Dont worry till it hits Ireland id say. Our overlords will keep the wheels of commerce going as long as they can before going into lockdown

sadly, the rich will be grand. Even if they get it they can hire a private nurse, have a private lung machine (whatever) flown to their mansion, and have some of the best doctors in the world on call.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2020 03:14PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Though it is true that differing Ethnicity can have an outcome on how you are affected by the Flu ... as evidenced by the severe effect Spanish Flu had on ethnic populations.
A recent study on the Maori population..

Difficult to take serious any study relating to 100yrs ago whereby data collection would be sketchy, a world war was raging, and it had multiple mutation waves.

Who knows what the lifestyle factors the Maori had 100yrs ago, maybe they liked the smokes, or had a mainly fish-based unbalanced diet, or choose their skygods over any medicinal treatments offered by their occupiers.

13-02-2020 03:17PM

LadyMayBelle wrote: »

I'm a bit confused reading the latest update from the guardian where a woman presented at the hospital having arrived in an Uber...she went 'straight to the reception in a+e to report her symptoms'...which is a 'breach of guidance at stopping the spread of the virus'..

London coronavirus patient turned up at hospital in Uber taxi

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/london-coronavirus-patient-turned-up-hospital-uber-taxi?

Was at my dentist y'day and this was on the door....surely based in it's instruction it's telling you to notify the staff in the clinic?

If I had just returned from Mainland China and read that, I’d assume that the hand gel, face masks and reception were all inside the door. So I’d -

Open door with exposed hands
Look around for hand gel
Find hand gel and use while looking for face masks
Put my hand on my cheek to offer relief to my toothache (why I’m at dentist) while letting out a painful whimper and breathing onto hands.
Find face masks (yeah they’re really gonna have them) and put on using my now unwashed hands.
Go to reception, place hands on counter and say “hello, I’m from Wuhan”

13-02-2020 03:18PM

Where’s ladybelles post gone?

LadyMayBelle · 13-02-2020 03:20PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Where’s ladybelles post gone?

Sorry I deleted it as couldn't link proper! Trying to log in on desktop to repost- but it's above in the repost!

I'm a bit confused reading the latest update from the guardian where a woman presented at the hospital having arrived in an Uber...she went 'straight to the reception in a+e to report her symptoms'...which is a 'breach of guidance at stopping the spread of the virus'..

London coronavirus patient turned up at hospital in Uber taxi

https://www.theguardia...p-hospital-uber-taxi?

Was at my dentist y'day and this was on the door....surely based in it's instruction it's telling you to notify the staff in the clinic?

Wibbs · 13-02-2020 03:20PM

wakka12 wrote: »

She was in her 80's. Well I've heard of false negatives but not any false positives so far. I think they are a lot rarer. The tests administer antibodies I think that react to the disease in question..dont see why they would react to the disease if its not present, false negatives are more common because sometimes there isnt enough of the disease yet developed within the patient to react to the antibodies

Now shoot me down in flames, but like Tara above I have the strong feeling at the moment the test isn't all it's cracked up to be. In both false negatives and positives. I mentioned this earlier in the thread and someone else(can't recall who

) had a link to the maker of these tests that suggested an accuracy rate of 60%.

There are a fair few coronaviruses in the wild. The common cold is one. That dose that was/is doing the rounds here in Ireland since around Christmas was another. I got it along with many of my friends. I had a tiny bit of fever for a day or so and then a cough/bronchitis, one mate of mine got it worse, dead tired, constant hacking cough that lasted for weeks. Others around me/us that were certainly exposed got feck all. My question is, if we were tested with this WuFlu kit would any of us have given false positives? Is the test that specific to this particular strain? I mean it was by necessity rushed into service looking for this new virus so maybe not?

The Japanese woman who died was in her 80's and had never left Japan and got sick pretty early in the scheme of things and apparently had no contact with Chinese folks. Now of course it's possible she was infected by various sources, but something doesn't quite add up for me.

Neither does the fingerprint of this virus. Unlike other similar viruses like SARS and MERS it's oddly and extremely variable in how it presents, never mind how long it seems to take to present in people, or how long it can last in the environment. It's all over the place. In patients with confirmed SARS and MERS all became very sick and in the same timeframes. In MERS for example 75% of patients needed mechanical ventilation. This new dose? You have a large percentage of people who are asymptomatic, even more that just have a bit of fever, sniffles and a cough, including "superspreaders" with high viral loads, then you have a minority who go to deaths door in a matter of days to a week. If it were just diabetic 90 year olds chugging fifty fags a day going out like this you'd figure OK, but its also healthy people of various ages.

Even allowing for natural human variability in people and their immune responses something just doesn't add up for me with this virus at all.

tara73 wrote:

Maybe a professional here can answer..Dr. John...:)

I realise he's a popular chap at the moment but TBH I find him decidedly variable in quality and not a little prone to major supposition. Now thankfully he's not the tinfoil hat brigade, but at the same time he tends to follow the usual line without asking the right questions. The Chinese figures he takes as gospel for a start. Takes his sweet time to get to the bloody point too. 30 minute videos that could be condensed down to 5 sorta thing. That's just my take mind you.

BanditLuke · 13-02-2020 03:20PM

creditcarder wrote: »

christ, what a ****show if half of this is true.

edit: Yeah, i tried to link this but it linked the above video for some reason.

Utterly incredible. Now imagine we attempted something like that in Ireland. A few smelly hippies would chain themselves to the trees because some bird had used the area as it's home for a hundred years and it would take the Gardai 3 weeks to move them out before construction begun whilst Paul Murphy stood with his crew of crusties looking on shouting abuse at the Gardai.

daheff · 13-02-2020 03:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How can I be the only who spots you're out by two magnitudes of order? Multiple pages later and all these people read this post and accepted that 60k in China equates to 18k in Ireland.

4,500,000 * .00004 = 180

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 180 * .15 = 27
Of these 27 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 27 * .05 = 1.35

the 60k amount is not the end total....so equating it to 180 (or 18k if you like) is irrelevant. Only after the outbreak ends can you make reasonable comparisons like that.

For example, what if the 60k turns into 60m? is 180 still a relevant number for Ireland?

On another note, I see yesterdays deaths/cures is still tracking along at around 5/1 (1277/254).

does anybody have any numbers on how long from infection to cure/death? if these timelines were relatively the same, then could we infer a death rate of 20% (rather than the ~2% we are being fed now. this 2% seems to be deaths/infections (1368/59901).....but the infections total is not a resolved number. These ultimately go either to cured or dead.

SeaBreezes · 13-02-2020 03:25PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Difficult to take serious any study relating to 100yrs ago whereby data collection would be sketchy, a world war was raging, and it had multiple mutation waves.

Who knows what the lifestyle factors the Maori had 100yrs ago, maybe they liked the smokes, or had a mainly fish-based unbalanced diet, or choose their skygods over any medicinal treatments offered by their occupiers.

Read the paper. It goes through pandemics most recent in 2009.

Wibbs · 13-02-2020 03:27PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Difficult to take serious any study relating to 100yrs ago whereby data collection would be sketchy, a world war was raging, and it had multiple mutation waves.

Who knows what the lifestyle factors the Maori had 100yrs ago, maybe they liked the smokes, or had a mainly fish-based unbalanced diet, or choose their skygods over any medicinal treatments offered by their occupiers.

Indeed, but different populations have shown different responses to various infectuous agents throughout history. Our current world populations and even our recorded history show this. Native Americans are such a small population today because they had no resistance to pathogens from Europe(including influenza). This was repeated throughout the age of conquest all over the world. More Africans have a resistance to malaria than Europeans(though there is a group in southern europe with a novel resistance to it). In non African populations with archaic Neandertal and Denisovan genes they have found a few of them are to do with the immune system and important enough for survival over time that they still exist in us after at least 40,000 years after they got into the modern human genome.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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