new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

BanditLuke · 11-02-2020 10:05PM

Jesus that video of the children in the hospital is chilling.

Odhinn · 11-02-2020 10:07PM

Is it any worse than the yearly flu in terms of death rates?

sdanseo · 11-02-2020 10:09PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Latest update

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed Cases (Cases which had an outcome) = 5,386
Deaths = 1,018
Rate = 19%

Active Cases (Currently Infected Patients) = 37,760
Serious or Critical = 7,345
Rate = 19%

Critical/serious cases are people who require to be attached to a machine in order to be able to breath
That 19% looks like it's going to become the death rate after all

More misinformation. Read my post from yesterday in this thread.

Serious means, generally speaking, patient contracted viral pneumonia. Number hovering around 17% of patients and most of those require little or no respiratory support beyond supplemental oxygen.
Around a third needed some kind of ICU treatment, of which mechanical ventilation is one. Still further is the ECMO option.
Beyond that, 6 out of 41 ICU patients died in a study where around half are still in hospital, so a pessimistic assessment would be a third 33% fatality rate among ICU cases. (which themselves are only 5.5% of reported cases).

Yesterday the recovery to death ratio was just under 4:1, Now it's 4.3:1. A week ago it was evens. If you apply the same crazy panic logic and assume it reduces by 1% every day then in 19 days, it's harmless! That won't be true either of course, however the number keeps falling and will continue to do so.

Meanwhile, still just 2 deaths outside China. 1 of those was nearly two weeks ago yet there have been many dozens sick since then. The recovery rate will rally very shortly I'd imagine.

gozunda · 11-02-2020 10:11PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

From what I’m reading in Lancet & other reports is that the illness caused by this virus resembles Influenza more than a common cold. In the latter a runny nose and scratchy throat with tracheitis / laryngitis is a major feature, but in Covid-19 the typical cold symptoms are either absent or not well marked. Instead people go down straight off with a fever, lower respiratory dry cough & muscle pains, which progresses to a severe pneumonia in a higher proportion of patients than in the case with Infuenza. Nowhere am I seeing that it is in some cases a trivial cold-like condition, it is a virus that favours the lower respiratory system. Indeed there are descriptions of patients having very dry mucus membranes. So, somebody with a sneezy cold is highly unlikely to have Covid-19.

In the event of an outbreak here the issue arising from this is that anyone coming down with cold or flu symptoms in the initial stages are going to be under suspicion as to infection - at least until either medical diagnosis or testing can confirm otherwise.

There is the danger that some people may think ah sure its only a cold / bit of the flu and not think about self isolating.

Both scenarios may cause issues with primary health care providers such as GPs etc and infection control measures.

Additionally anyone who has not got the flu vaccine may also want to consider the unlikely but possible issues with comorbidity of influenza and the coronavirus.

I was watching people reacting to someone having a coughing episode the other day and the reaction was noticeable and as of yet we dont even have any confirmed cases!

Call Me Jimmy · 11-02-2020 10:20PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

It looked genuine, but it was removed. From the mods on Reddit:

I can PM you the link if you want to make up your own mind, video is from CCTV.

Don't need a link but would like to know what subreddit removed it?

Fr_Dougal · 11-02-2020 10:22PM

Odhinn wrote: »

Is it any worse than the yearly flu in terms of death rates?

Currently 250 times higher than flu.

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Don't need a link but would like to know what subreddit removed it?

r/Coronavirus

sdanseo · 11-02-2020 10:22PM

I saw the video. I also saw the third reply:

#FAKENEWSWATCH: This video is not related to the #Coronavirus. The 3 children shown in the video died after carbon monoxide poisoning.
Still shocking nonetheless.

fritzelly · 11-02-2020 10:23PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227355340238446592

BloodBath · 11-02-2020 10:27PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Currently 250 times higher than flu.

r/Coronavirus

Based on what mathematics? Impossible to determine with very limited information.

So much sensationalist fear mongering click bait stories been said and linked here as facts. Fear sells if you let it.

Call Me Jimmy · 11-02-2020 10:29PM

fritzelly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227355340238446592

Either the WHO and their conclusion is wrong or travel bans / mass quarantining REALLY work astonishingly well in terms of spread.

Hopefully the official new case numbers are truly representative of a the trend in China. I have my doubts, think we need to project only from international cases.

drunkmonkey · 11-02-2020 10:33PM

sdanseo wrote: »

I saw the video. I also saw the third reply:

Why would they all be wearing facemasks and putting the 3 kids in the one body bag if it was carbon monoxide poisoning. Any source to fact check the 3rd reply.

macapaca · 11-02-2020 10:33PM

sdanseo wrote: »

I saw the video. I also saw the third reply:

Quote:
#FAKENEWSWATCH: This video is not related to the #Coronavirus. The 3 children shown in the video died after carbon monoxide poisoning.
Still shocking nonetheless.

If it was CO2 poisoning then why are the staff wearing hazmat suits though?

Fr_Dougal · 11-02-2020 10:35PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Based on what mathematics? Impossible to determine with very limited information.

So much sensationalist fear mongering click bait stories been said and linked here as facts. Fear sells if you let it.

Google annual flu death rate yourself to make sure you’re happy with the source.

The math for this Coronavirus is number of deaths/diagnosed * 100.

Of course you won’t know the official death rate until it’s over.

BanditLuke · 11-02-2020 10:35PM

sdanseo wrote: »

I saw the video. I also saw the third reply:

They died of carbon monoxide poisoning in the hospital?

sdanseo · 11-02-2020 10:41PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why would they all be wearing facemasks and putting the 3 kids in the one body bag if it was carbon monoxide poisoning. Any source to fact check the 3rd reply.

macapaca wrote: »

If it was CO2 poisoning then why are the staff wearing hazmat suits though?

They're not wearing hazmat suits. Two of the lads look like police or paramedics in black jackets. One doctor is wearing a lab coat. Everyone is wearing a mask. How remarkable. Almost everyone in the continent of Asia is wearing a mask in public at the moment!

The bodies we have thus far being seen moved have been by people in full coveralls, masks, goggles and even splash-visors.

This is not that.
Analyse the video and apply logic.
Stop sensationalising.

BanditLuke wrote: »

They died of carbon monoxide poisoning in the hospital?

They're clearly in a main lobby/ED area. Paramedics would suggest they were just brought in, and quickly it was found that nothing could be done.

car_radio19834 · 11-02-2020 10:41PM

Number of new cases is declining, so this thing should be easily dealt with now I would guess. Might be out of the news in a week.

BloodBath · 11-02-2020 10:44PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Google annual flu death rate yourself to make sure you’re happy with the source.

The math for this Coronavirus is number of deaths/diagnosed * 100.

Of course you won’t know the official death rate until it’s over.

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

ceadaoin. · 11-02-2020 10:50PM

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

Exactly. It seems clear from the known cases outside china that this a mild illness for most people. Otherwise we would be seeing more deaths and critical cases. If it was spreading out in the wild in the rest of the world (which is almost certainly is), and it was that dangerous, then cases of hospitalization with pneumonia and negative flu tests would be spiking. This doesn't seem to be happening. At least in the US where they report results weekly, most tests are still positive for flu.

The chinese figures only count those who have been hospitalized therefore its already only including cases with severe symptoms who are more likely to have poorer outcomes.

sdanseo · 11-02-2020 10:51PM

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

Those figures are just the USA. More than 650,000 people die of the flu in the world annually.

Around 54 times more people have died from the flu in the last 30 days than Coronavirus, although obviously the case fatality ration is spectacularly high in comparison.

Martina1991 · 11-02-2020 10:51PM

drunkmonkey wrote:

I thought kids were safe enough from this, I've just seen 3 of them go in the one body bag, no need to post it.

How do you even know thats from coronavirus.

You shouldn't just drop that into the thread when it could be completely unrelated.

People here are worried enough as it is.

tuxy · 11-02-2020 10:51PM

macapaca wrote: »

If it was CO2 poisoning then why are the staff wearing hazmat suits though?

No hazmat suits in the video, just masks.

There is currently a very serious coronavirus in many cities in China, it is illegal to not wear a mask in public.
However this will not prevent hospitals from attempting to treat both adults and children suffering from other serious conditions such as carbon monoxide poisoning.

Call Me Jimmy · 11-02-2020 10:52PM

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

What's your take on the Chinese government being such drama queens about it?

givyjoe · 11-02-2020 10:53PM

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Number of new cases is declining, so this thing should be easily dealt with now I would guess. Might be out of the news in a week.

I'm on the mobile, so I can't stick in that roll eyes emoji.. but seriously, you cannot actually believe that?

Did you miss the WHO stating this was very grave threat to the world, in just the last day?

BorneTobyWilde · 11-02-2020 10:56PM

I can't imagine those little masks protect all the nurses, soldiers and police rounding up or screening the affected. Could a virus like this be stopped with military action, or is that just the stuff of movies.

ceadaoin. · 11-02-2020 10:58PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

What's your take on the Chinese government being such drama queens about it?

Because they know they dropped the ball big time at the start of this and are pulling out all the stops to get it under control to save face and because their economy depends on it. It's not like they're averse to using such extreme methods against their citizens in normal circumstances, this is just an extension of that

BanditLuke · 11-02-2020 10:59PM

Some real head in the sand stuff here tonight.

Fr_Dougal · 11-02-2020 10:59PM

BloodBath wrote: »

It's not the flu figures I have an issue with. It's the corona virus figures which don't take into account those who don't administer themselves to hospital with it and recover at home.

An example roughly 43 million people get the flu each year. 650k of these are hospitalised. 61k deaths. If you were taking figures from only those who are hospitalised you would get a near 10% death rate which is obviously ridiculous and not an accurate calculation.

The only corona virus figures you have are those who are hospitalised. There's been 45k cases and 1,100 deaths which is 2.5% even lower than the flu's rate if you're only taking hospitalised cases into account.

A load of dramatised bull****.

Your post is all over the shop, annual death rate for the flu is .01%.

I’d advise you to do your research before you come in here f-ing and blinding out of yourself.

BloodBath · 11-02-2020 11:00PM

sdanseo wrote: »

Those figures are just the USA. More than 650,000 people die of the flu in the world annually.

Around 54 times more people have died from the flu in the last 30 days than Coronavirus, although obviously the case fatality ration is spectacularly high in comparison.

Oh right. I missed that. Regardless the % shouldn't change much when brought worldwide.

I don't see how people are getting 20% figure from coronvirus though.

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

What's your take on the Chinese government being such drama queens about it?

In what ways? I'd imagine quarantines are mainly precautionary and they do have a large population so even with low deaths rates it could kill millions if no efforts were made to control it.

11-02-2020 11:00PM

I am so glad I didn't hear about this in early January or I would have been convinced I had it!

On Dec 23rd I got a sore throat. That was all, just a sore throat. Then on the evening of Christmas day I started coughing. A dry cough. Had that until 30th. Then on new years Eve I felt great. Thought I was all better but on new year's day I woke up wheezing. All of a sudden I had this soreness down in my chest, loads of crackling and wheezing and whatnot. A little shortness of breath. That went on for almost the entirety of January. The worst part was that it completely wiped me out. I was so fatigued all the time. I couldn't do anything. Even though I wasn't sick, no vomiting or anything, I felt so crap I just couldn't do anything. I know from the flu thread on here at the time that I was far from the only one feeling that way.

Without a doubt, I'd have thought I had covid-19, had I been aware of it!

Can see what Gozunda is saying above about people getting the common cold and panic presenting at gps and hospitals and overwhelming the system.

fritzelly · 11-02-2020 11:02PM

These are the latest figures from the offical Hubei government site

There were 11,295 suspected cases, and 6,756 were excluded on the day; 4890 new clinically diagnosed cases and 10,567 existing clinically diagnosed cases were added on the same day; 15,514 suspected and clinically diagnosed cases were concentratedly isolated. A total of 152,251 close contacts have been tracked, and 77,195 people are still undergoing medical observation.

Can anyone explain why they do not match what is being reported elsewhere like BNO?

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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