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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

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    #422
    Xenji
    Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Over 30mm of rain now in Castlebar, the rain was more of an issue than the wind so far today but I reckon tomorrow morning it will be the opposite.


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    #423
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,887 ✭✭✭pauldry


    28mm now in Sligo from this. Flooding a problem


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    #424
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    N
    As to this question of snow becoming disruptive later Monday into Tuesday, yes I am taking the "high ground mainly" approach but not ruling out some mixing at all elevations, don't want anyone to interpret the comments by me or about me as "it won't snow below 200m" because it probably will at some point, just the accumulating and not rapidly melting snow would be on higher terrain.

    Yes, snow won't stick at lower levels during the day, but at night it should. I'm not expecting 10 cm at lower levels, but hopefully 2- 4 cm is not out of the question at lower levels in the west and north west between Sunday and Tuesday night


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    #425
    jprboy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,351 ✭✭✭jprboy


    National warnings have disappeared from Met.ie.

    Further update incoming??


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    #426
    mayo.mick
    Registered Users Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭mayo.mick


    pauldry wrote: »
    28mm now in Sligo from this. Flooding a problem

    56mm of rain here since midday

    EQSAICbXkAAhA-W?format=png&name=small

    Swinford Weather



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    #427
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,830 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    14.4mm here in Tralee, blustery this evening getting up to 66 km/h.

    Thats some rain mayo.mick and loads more yet to come, flooding must be a big concern now in the W and NW


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    #428
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,830 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ecB6kJU.png

    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Sun 09 Feb 2020 06:00 to Mon 10 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Sat 08 Feb 2020 20:45
    Forecaster: PUCIK

    A level 2 was issued for Ireland, southern UK, northern France, Benelux and Germany mainly for severe to extremely severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    A level 1 surrounds level 2 for the same threats, but with lower certainty.

    SYNOPSIS

    Synoptic-scale setting over the forecast domain is dictated by two main features at mid to upper troposphere: a deep low centered over eastern Turkey and a rapidly moving trough from the Atlantic towards NW Europe. In between of these two features, a ridge will stretch from the Mediterranean into E Europe. A powerful jet-stream, with windspeeds up to 100 m/s, is simulated over the Atlantic. Cyclogenesis is forecast in its exit region and low-level wind field will strengthen over the UK and NW Europe from Wednesday to Thursday. Deep moist convection is forecast along and behind the advancing cold front.

    DISCUSSION

    ... Ireland into Germany ...

    NWP is in good agreement regarding the track of the low, positioning of the exit region of the jet-stream and also on the overlap of modest low-level moisture with 6.5 - 7 K/km lapse rates along the front. Such overlap should allow for at least few tens up to 200 J/kg of MLCAPE. Widespread lift will promote generation of one or more strongly forced convective lines. Lines will likely be electrified given EL temperature below -15 deg C.

    Given very strong background wind field, with 850 hPA windspeeds around 35 m/s, convective line may enhance the wind gusts near the surface, resulting in widespread severe and isolated extremely severe gusts. While the zone of very high SRH, exceeding 500 m2/s2 in 0-3 km layer, may be mostly displaced east of the advancing line, degree of lower tropospheric shear will remain more than enough to consider tornadoes in the forecast.


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    #429
    mayo.mick
    Registered Users Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭mayo.mick


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    14.4mm here in Tralee, blustery this evening getting up to 66 km/h.

    Thats some rain mayo.mick and loads more yet to come, flooding must be a big concern now in the W and NW

    Serious here, just after seeing, the ladies match between Mayo and Waterford was to be played here in Swinford tomorrow, has been postponed.

    Swinford Weather



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    #430
    kerrycork13
    Registered Users Posts: 241 ✭✭kerrycork13


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    14.4mm here in Tralee, blustery this evening getting up to 66 km/h.

    Thats some rain mayo.mick and loads more yet to come, flooding must be a big concern now in the W and NW

    Hi meteorite
    I'm in the east of the county and even though I have nothing to guage the rain I wouldnt be surprised if we had an 25 mls already or so. Been raining incessantly since midday. I'd say river blackwater must be close to bursting its banks already at this stage.


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    #431
    ShylockWept
    Closed Accounts Posts: 56 ✭✭ShylockWept


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    ecB6kJU.png

    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Sun 09 Feb 2020 06:00 to Mon 10 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Sat 08 Feb 2020 20:45
    Forecaster: PUCIK

    A level 2 was issued for Ireland, southern UK, northern France, Benelux and Germany mainly for severe to extremely severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    A level 1 surrounds level 2 for the same threats, but with lower certainty.

    SYNOPSIS

    Synoptic-scale setting over the forecast domain is dictated by two main features at mid to upper troposphere: a deep low centered over eastern Turkey and a rapidly moving trough from the Atlantic towards NW Europe. In between of these two features, a ridge will stretch from the Mediterranean into E Europe. A powerful jet-stream, with windspeeds up to 100 m/s, is simulated over the Atlantic. Cyclogenesis is forecast in its exit region and low-level wind field will strengthen over the UK and NW Europe from Wednesday to Thursday. Deep moist convection is forecast along and behind the advancing cold front.

    DISCUSSION

    ... Ireland into Germany ...

    NWP is in good agreement regarding the track of the low, positioning of the exit region of the jet-stream and also on the overlap of modest low-level moisture with 6.5 - 7 K/km lapse rates along the front. Such overlap should allow for at least few tens up to 200 J/kg of MLCAPE. Widespread lift will promote generation of one or more strongly forced convective lines. Lines will likely be electrified given EL temperature below -15 deg C.

    Given very strong background wind field, with 850 hPA windspeeds around 35 m/s, convective line may enhance the wind gusts near the surface, resulting in widespread severe and isolated extremely severe gusts. While the zone of very high SRH, exceeding 500 m2/s2 in 0-3 km layer, may be mostly displaced east of the advancing line, degree of lower tropospheric shear will remain more than enough to consider tornadoes in the forecast.

    Forgive me, Meteorite58, but you have just used the word tornadoes.

    Can somebody please give a layman's update of these developments. It is unclear whether these are upgrades, downgrades, etc.


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    #432
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,830 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    kerrycork13 wrote: »
    Hi meteorite
    I'm in the east of the county and even though I have nothing to guage the rain I wouldnt be surprised if we had an 25 mls already or so. Been raining incessantly since midday. I'd say river blackwater must be close to bursting its banks already at this stage.

    Yeah anywhere near the mountains in Kerry got most of the rain today Id say, they rivers will be in flood tomorrow for sure with what is forecast for the next 24 hrs.


    A96EazS.png


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    #433
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,830 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ShylockWept wrote: »
    Forgive me, Meteorite58, but you have just used the word tornadoes.

    Can somebody please give a layman's update of these developments. It is unclear whether these are upgrades, downgrades, etc.

    This is a forecast from the European Storm Forecast Experiment.

    They are talking about the upper atmosphere being conducive to producing one or more strongly forced convective lines. What are often called Squall Lines will likely be electrified meaning embedded thunderstorms. These convective lines could produce very strong surface winds. There is a lot of vorticity in the atmosphere given the very fast jet and cold upper temperatures giving a lot of shear ,so put simply, a tornado could occur.

    Worth watching the radars tomorrow for the tell tale signs of convective lines, often get very strong winds go through when they pass.


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    #434
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,341 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I think the reference to tornadoes was probably meant more for Britain or western Europe but you can never rule out a brief and not very violent tornado forming from any given convective cell in these turbulent westerly flows. They usually last a few minutes and do their business in some unpopulated location so few if any people know they ever took place. But one major exception comes to mind, in a fast westerly type event that hit Vancouver in Dec 2006 an F2 formed and went right through Stanley Park taking out a big swath of large trees. The chances of that hitting a location with such high public awareness was probably 1 in 100 and the intensity was also greater than most similar events.

    What's more relevant the situation for tomorrow morning in Ireland is that any given convective cell might unleash damaging wind gusts (straight line rather than tornadic) and so the airport or weather station reports may not capture the strongest gusts that occur somewhere in the country. That said, your chances of being affected directly are low.


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    #435
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,887 ✭✭✭pauldry


    33mm in Sligo now. Wettest 24 hours of 2020 so far


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    #436
    mobil 222
    Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭mobil 222


    Met.ie charts back up Orange warning from 5 AM till midday tomorrow.


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    #437
    Impetus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,667 ✭✭✭Impetus


    meteoalarm.eu is only showing yellow for IRL.

    HIRLAM/AROME were predicting 14 m/s winds in Cork Airport for Sunday afternoon a few days ago. The current forecast is about 11 m/s WSW. (While the prevailing wind in Ireland is SW, Cork airport has no SW facing runway that can handle a Boeing 737 800 - a la Ryanair at 14 m/s sidewind. The sort of south facing RWY at ORK is too short for the 737 while an airbus A320 can handle 19 m/s crosswind and can generally land on the southerly runway at ORK which is only 1'310m long.

    The British tabloid news media you read are out of date and they base their forecast on a home brew local British weather forecasting model.... which has consistently been wrong with the big picture back to the 1980s, and earlier. They refuse to use standard European computer meteo models. A bit like Brexit. Remember Michael Fish on BBC - forecasting a calm day for GB, when Meteo France was warning of a hurricane for the southern portion of that island.


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    #438
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Impetus wrote: »
    meteoalarm.eu is only showing yellow for IRL.

    HIRLAM/AROME were predicting 14 m/s winds in Cork Airport for Sunday afternoon a few days ago. The current forecast is about 11 m/s WSW. (While the prevailing wind in Ireland is SW, Cork airport has no SW facing runway that can handle a Boeing 737 800 - a la Ryanair at 14 m/s sidewind. The sort of south facing RWY at ORK is too short for the 737 while an airbus A320 can handle 19 m/s crosswind and can generally land on the southerly runway at ORK which is only 1'310m long.

    The British tabloid news media you read are out of date and they base their forecast on a home brew local British weather forecasting model.... which has consistently been wrong with the big picture back to the 1980s, and earlier. They refuse to use standard European computer meteo models. A bit like Brexit. Remember Michael Fish on BBC - forecasting a calm day for GB, when Meteo France was warning of a hurricane for the southern portion of that island.

    Meteoalarm can only issue what the home country issue, Ireland's will be back to orange when the time it issued for starts.
    Meteoalarm only started in 2007


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    #439
    Goldfinch8
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Rain has just eased off here now. Recorded just over 38mms here in Central Mayo today.
    One of the main tributaries on the upper River Moy is up 2.55 metres since mid afternoon. Plenty of surface water on all local roads also.


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    #440
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Impetus wrote: »

    The British tabloid news media you read are out of date and they base their forecast on a home brew local British weather forecasting model.... which has consistently been wrong with the big picture back to the 1980s, and earlier. They refuse to use standard European computer meteo models.

    You assume that tabloid, or any journalists for that matter, have the intelligence to read and interpret any forecasting model. They don't. They are nothing more than plagiarisers who think nothing of embellishing a story to pull in an audience who are dumb enough to listen.

    New Moon



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    #441
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,341 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Re -- orange alert in all counties.

    Probably what went into that decision (not just limited to exposed coastal counties) was that the storm has potential to intensify overnight and in any case the gusts would be generated mainly from fast-moving convective cells that could be intense anywhere inland too -- also being a Sunday, possibly, thinking that quite a few people might be thinking of taking a trip across several counties.

    Better safe than sorry in this marginal situation. Still think the coastal flooding potential is one of the bigger concerns.


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    #442
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,887 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Thread should have been titled

    Ciara 3 day storm
    Saturday Rain
    Sunday Wind
    Monday Snow


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    #443
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,069 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Calm before Ciara

    10pm
    Belmullet 10 knots
    Claremorris 6 knots
    Newport 3 knots


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    #444
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    This headline on the Danish Met Office site made me chuckle:

    Long-term and strong winds in binoculars
    6 February 2020. A solid windstorm hits Denmark from Sunday and a few days ahead. Forecasters are currently swinging between coal and storm in the middle wind, while gusts can reach storm or perhaps as high as hurricane. In connection with the wind storm there is a risk of elevated water levels - especially in the Limfjord area.

    'In the middle wind...".

    New Moon



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    #445
    Impetus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,667 ✭✭✭Impetus


    It is now night-time. And DUB > FR looks OK to me. There is some wind northbound along the Irish sea. What flight level ?

    If you pick a point on windy.com and right click and select sounding, you will see the wind speed at various altitudes. As you probably know if you have a plane or boat.

    https://www.windy.com/?52.009,-7.317,7

    informations sans engagement


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    #446
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,830 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    oHFlliC.jpg

    This is a Technical discussion Thread only: Charts, Maps, Satellite Pics, Observations, Data, Forecasts etc , all other chat in event chat thread here

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058052509

    Please follow Moderators instructions, post in appropriate thread.


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    #447
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    RTE 1 forecast just there making plenty references to snow potential and referenced drifting even.


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    #448
    littlema
    Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭littlema


    Rain has finally eased.... 3.65mm today.
    Drove down the hill into Ballymote around 9pm and the floods and “river” running down the road was something I never experienced before.... deep and long floods!
    Wonder what the morning will bring??


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    #449
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    DMI's 'Harmonie' mean wind speed forecast from now up to noon tomorrow. Cream is 14m/s (approx 27-28 knots)

    DkrmA1o.gif

    New Moon



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    #450
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    RTE 1 forecast just there making plenty references to snow potential and referenced drifting even.

    missed it, drifting reserved for high ground?


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    #451
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Think I heard met Éireann say snow drifts next week after the news. Was I imagining that?


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