Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

Rebelbrowser

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Think I heard met Éireann say snow drifts next week after the news. Was I imagining that?

No but was just one of many possibilities mentioned. Didn't say anything about high ground either. Clearly Met E not ruling out proper snow anyway.

GoneHome

Wind is fairly picking up here now again in South Co Limerick

steer

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Calm before Ciara

10pm
Belmullet 10 knots
Claremorris 6 knots
Newport 3 knots

Dead calm in central mayo

Impetus

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

RTE 1 forecast just there making plenty references to snow potential and referenced drifting even.

One wonders why they didn't go for a massive Ireland turns into Greenland event with cuddly snow bears etc? CYA

France's AROME model is the most precise model in the world with 2.5 km resolution and there isn't a hint of this snow etc in the temp map which covers IRL. Perhaps in Kerry at 1000m+? Which can happen at any time in winter.

https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?arome,temp,2020-02-10-03,49.397,9.009,5

Norway's YR is forecasting a rainy somewhat windy day tomorrow for Dublin.. but no big deal dumb American style branded name storm to frighten the public.
https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin/hour_by_hour_detailed.html

pauldry

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

RTE 1 forecast just there making plenty references to snow potential and referenced drifting even.

They also referenced winds in excess of 130kph in places as a squall forms and not just a coastal storm event.

I think this storm will cause a lot of damage. Anything above 100kph inland causes damage and possible power cuts

Meteorite58

Think it is worth putting up this forecast in it's entirety as it pertains to Ireland as well .





Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 09 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 10 Feb 2020

ISSUED 21:47 UTC Sat 08 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A very active day of weather is expected across the British Isles, as a deep area of low pressure tracks eastwards close to northern Scotland. The strong north-south pressure gradient will lead to widespread strong winds, regardless of any additional convective component - and as such we are primarily interested in the additional damaging convective gusts / tornado potential on top of the pre-existing strong wind field (which is already covered in warnings by the Met Office and Met Éireann).

The environment will be strongly-sheared, with strong winds throughout the vertical, largely uni-directional. A strong LLJ (90-100mph winds at 850mb) will traverse and strengthen eastwards across England and Wales during Sunday, aiding advection of warm, moist low-level air immediately ahead of the surface cold front. A notable temperature/dewpoint gradient will exist across the cold front, with a slight wind veer. Model guidance suggests 100-300 J/kg CAPE will be available, while the forward motion of the front will aid in forced ascent. A remarkable 40-50kts of shear will exist in the lowest 1km!

All-in-all, the atmosphere will be primed for the development of one or more squall lines, fracturing at times to evolve into LEWPs. Some sporadic lightning is possible in places, hence the introduction of a SLGT. Transfer of high momentum air aloft down to the surface in downdrafts could lead to brief damaging straight-line wind gusts at ground level of 75-85mph (especially East Midlands into East Anglia). Such outflow combined with local topographical features could distort the low-level wind field sufficiently to generate bookend vortices and hence pose a risk of a few tornadoes, perhaps locally strong. A SVR has been introduced to highlight this risk. Of course, it is incredibly difficult to pinpoint exactly where this may occur, and the vast majority of the area will not see any tornadic activity - but should any fractures develop within squall lines, which seems likely, then this will increase the risk of a tornado on a local scale.

By mid-evening most squall line activity will have cleared to the English Channel and nearby Continent, leaving a rather more classic setup of cold air aloft and frequent showers piling into western areas, but moving well-inland on strong steering winds and more organised troughs in the flow. A few sporadic lightning strikes will therefore be possible on Sunday night, primarily over open waters and near exposed western coasts.

pauldry

Current gust of 98kph in Cork

Impressive

These wind speeds will be replicated in many places until Tuesday

Coastal erosion will occur in some places this week

nthclare

pauldry wrote: »

Current gust of 98kph in Cork

Impressive

These wind speeds will be replicated in many places until Tuesday

Coastal erosion will occur in some places this week

Fanore beach will be totally transformed.

Usually changes after big storms a few years ago there was more limestone than sand

esposito

Impetus wrote: »

One wonders why they didn't go for a massive Ireland turns into Greenland event with cuddly snow bears etc? CYA

France's AROME model is the most precise model in the world with 2.5 km resolution and there isn't a hint of this snow etc in the temp map which covers IRL. Perhaps in Kerry at 1000m+? Which can happen at any time in winter.

https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?arome,temp,2020-02-10-03,49.397,9.009,5

Norway's YR is forecasting a rainy somewhat windy day tomorrow for Dublin.. but no big deal dumb American style branded name storm to frighten the public.
https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin/hour_by_hour_detailed.html

Shut it, stop your nonsense.


Mod Note: esposito , I don't want to give out warnings but you cant be posting in this uncivil manner. No more.

Meteorite58

Mod Note:Impetus have moved a lot of your posts to the chat thread as they don't relate to this thread, need to stay on topic please.

Meteorite58

AROME showing reasonable CAPE values and again showing those very strong winds running across the midlands into the E tomorrow morning / early afternoon.

kerrycork13

My opinion. Not expert in any way whatsoever but I think that some of the strongest winds in this storm will be felt in west Munster pos +120 kms with some very strong winds in excess of 110 km effecting cork tipp and Waterford also. Def some structural damage along with flooding esp areas along the Lee and river blackwater valleys possible.

Gaoth Laidir

Here are the warnings out for the airports. EIME=Casement, EICK=Cork, EIDW=Dublin, EINN=Shannon, EIKN=Knock.

EIME AD WRNG 02 VALID 082000/091200 WIND SFC SSW 25-30KT MAX 50-55 BECMG 0904/0906 SSW 35-40KT MAX 55-60 FCST=
EICK AD WRNG 02 VALID 082000/091500 WIND SFC SSW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 0909/0912 WSW 30-35KT MAX 55-60 FCST=
EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 081330/090100 WIND SFC SSW 20-25KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 0815/0817 SSW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=
EINN AD WRNG 02 VALID 090300/091200 WIND SFC SSW 30-35KT MAX 50-55 BECMG 0907/0909 WSW 25-30KT MAX 55-60 FCST=
EIKN AD WRNG 02 VALID 090300/091500 WIND SFC SW 25-30KT MAX 55-60 BECMG 0908/0910 WSW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=
EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 082330/090530 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 0986 HPA AND 0969 HPA IN SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF LINE N5420 W01205 - N5430 W00804 FCST=

The aviation spotwind chart for 06Z has the following winds and temperatures. Off the northwest coast the wind is actually decreasing with height.

Lat/Long|Altitude (ft)|Wind (kt)|Temp
52.5N 10W|2000|75|10
|5000|75|05
|8000|85|-1
55N 10W|2000|75|06
|5000|70|3
|8000|65|-3

aidanodr

https://www.met.ie/warnings

Met Eireann site back on track I think. Whole country Orange again

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Rebelbrowser

G'wan the Euro 04... Hirlam coming on board a bit now too

mayo.mick

That's some amount of rain in 12 hrs!

SleetAndSnow

Getting wilder out there in cork city, just had a gust last
20 seconds or so and a few more after that.

Meteorite58

Impetus wrote: »

Whining pommey stuff....

Mod Note: Impetus received a card for trolling.

Impetus

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

You mean mean windspeed? Is that what you mean? Nobody tried to infer that it wasn't gust speeds, know what I mean?

No but he showed maps of rafaels in the context of a discussion of wind speed. And they are not the same. A gust can rip a table off a terrace in a skyscraper apartment and cause it to fall to the ground below. Typical continuous wind will not do the same damage by any means. It may cause the object to shake, but it will remain in situ (in Europe anyway).

Laurali

Very Gusty in Westport mayo right now but the models show it to be pretty calm until 3 or so

Impetus

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Mod Note: Impetus received a card for trolling.

There is no trolling at my end. I am talking about precision in weather forecasting, as opposed to the rubbish published by met.ie (and others of the English speaking variety) in many cases.


Tiny Iceland (pop 362k poeople) has a superior meteo website than met.ie - https://en.vedur.is

Gaoth Laidir

Impetus wrote: »

No but he showed maps of rafaels in the context of a discussion of wind speed. And they are not the same. A gust can rip a table off a terrace in a skyscraper apartment and cause it to fall to the ground below. Typical continuous wind will not do the same damage by any means. It may cause the object to shake, but it will remain in situ (in Europe anyway).

You're just here to argue any point, regardless.

Anyway, here are the 300 hPa windspeeds from 18Z and again at 06Z tomorrow. Core of >220 knots (240 kts according to aviation charts).

Larbre34

Impetus wrote: »

Tiny Iceland (pop 362k poeople) has a superior meteo website than met.ie - https://en.vedur.is

A) thats a matter of opinion The Icelandic Met Service can better be described as NATO

Oneiric 3

5 degree difference between Athenry & Claremorris at the mo. And here inbetween, it is piddling. Looking at the radar, this is obviously some sort of frontal divide over this small region.

Oneiric 3

Larbre34 wrote: »

A) thats a matter of opinion The Icelandic Met Service can better be described as NATO

Xertz

Larbre34 wrote: »

A) thats a matter of opinion The Icelandic Met Service can better be described as NATO

Icelandic weather forecasting is often life and death stuff. I’ve spent time up there. The Reykjavik area is not dissimilar to an extreme version of the west of Ireland and that’s where about 90% live, but the rest Iceland experiences extreme weather and also issues with volcanic ash and various other phenomena.
So, unsurprisingly the weather service is a BIG priority!

In comparison, Ireland gets a few storms but has nothing like the kind of disruptive or dangerous weather issues. Most of the time we’ve some of the most temperate weather anywhere in the world. It’s a very benign climate.

Xertz

Xertz wrote: »

Icelandic weather forecasting is often life and death stuff. I’ve spent time up there. The Reykjavik area is not dissimilar to an extreme version of the west of Ireland and that’s where about 90% live, but the rest Iceland experiences extreme weather and also issues with volcanic ash and various other phenomena.
So, unsurprisingly the weather service is a BIG priority!

So to achieve this do they have better forecasting tech than us, or better software? Or do they have better people analysing the data?

Oneiric 3

All of the Scandinavian/Nordic region official Met websites are top banana, and given their general location in the world, I suppose they have to be.

Xertz

Deleted User wrote: »

So to achieve this do they have better forecasting tech than us, or better software? Or do they have better people analysing the data?

You’d have to do an in-depth comparison between the two met services, but it would be absolutely fundamental to life in countries with more hostile conditions. Our requirements are very different.

I’d rate Met Éireann / RTE tv présentation of weather way ahead of RÚV though. However we’ve a more sunshine / showers type of consumer interest.

There are times in Iceland you’ve got to check the weather site to ensure your car’s not going to be etched by volcanic activity in some regions! It’s extremely different.

I think that’s a bit of a generalisation about Irish websites tbh. Also neither Aer Lingus nor Swiss air are state owned or anything to do with public services and haven’t been for quite a long time.

And we are wayyyyyy off topic !!