GE2020 Mod Note in First Post

maura2e · 30-01-2020 02:11PM

Clareman wrote: »

Lets pretend you want to vote the same as DavidJTaylor, but only want to go to 4 places (like below)
1 Theresa O’Donohoe - People Before Profit
2 Róisín Garvey - Greens
3 Violet-Anne Wynne - Sinn Fein
4 David Barrett - Independent

His vote will stay with Theresa O'Donoghue until she is knock out or elected, if she's elected any votes over the quota are only moved on, the quota is calculated by dividing the valid number of votes by 5 (number of candidates plus 1) and then adding 1 extra. Once Theresa is no longer in the mix her vote is passed to her second preference where it stays until the second preference is knocked out or elected, then it passes on, etc. etc. Now if it gets to the 5th count and all David has voted for are out then him vote is deemed non-transferable. If you want to make sure your vote goes the whole way through you should start your voting preference from bottom to top that way you can make sure that your vote is going to work for the whole election.

Looking at the last election, the votes cast was 57,407, 407 votes were spoilt so the valid count is 57,000, that divided by 5 is 11,400 so the quota is 11,401. Dooley got 10,215 first preferences but because those who were knocked out in the early rounds weren't fans of his he had to wait until the 7th count to get in, this is when another FF candidate got knocked out, she had 2,880 votes ~1,400 went to Dooley (more than double all transfers in the previous rounds) so he was elected the rest of her votes were split between most of the other candidates and the other FF candidate only got 400 transfers so that was a big reason that he didn't get elected. Looking at the other transfers when McNamara got knocked out his votes were transfered to mainly the FG candidates so they both got in.

Don't underestimate the power of a good vote management process by a party, chances are if a party has 3 candidates they'll need to have a good plan for transfers to happen and it can be difficult to get transfers from outside of the party but this is where local politics come to effect which is why I think having such a heavy East Clare ballot could split the vote and allow someone else to sneak in.

Tx u so much for your very enlightening post & Im beginning to understand our system better. Ive lived most of my working life in the US and retired home a few yrs ago. The family were always strong FF supporters so thats who I voted for previously. However this election I want to see a more left leaning party get in since Im beginning to see FG/FF as two sides of the same coin and nothing much is happening for housing, healthcare etc. when they are in govt. The country desperately needs a change. So again, just trying to figure out how best to rank the candidates, as in the example above, IMHO, would it make more sense to list SF as a 1st preference since they have wider support and are more likely to get a seat, and so my vote would count more in that case?

davidjtaylor · 30-01-2020 02:16PM

This is from an old article about STV:

It’s permissible to partially order an STV vote as it makes it harder to cast an invalid vote.

That said, it’s not optimal to do so.

If you have time and energy to figure out your relative preferences for all candidates, ranking them all can actually swing the election your way a bit more.

You should even rank candidates that you know are “greater evils”.

The only time you should not rank a candidate is if you can’t make up your mind based on the information you can find easily. If you can’t do that, that’s fine, do your best. But if you want more from your vote, I think it’s important people have information on how to vote effectively.

You should rank “greater evil candidates” because your vote transfers under STV, but contrary to some people’s understanding, it doesn’t actually transfer the whole all the time if you’ve picked any popular candidates, and in fact in any STV election with more than 2 candidates, it’s rare (and increasingly so as we add more candidates) for a voter’s entire vote to count for one candidate, and mostly only happens if you happen to have the winner of the last round as your first preference.

golfball37 · 30-01-2020 02:53PM

Marty Xavier wrote: »

Er what?

The surplus votes are distributed proportionally to the remaining candidates based on the number 2s of elected candidate.
In the case of Dooley above it would be likely that Crowe would get high amount of the 1000 etc. if someone just voted Dooley no 1 then it’s a ntv

Clareman · 30-01-2020 04:21PM

maura2e wrote: »

Tx u so much for your very enlightening post & Im beginning to understand our system better. Ive lived most of my working life in the US and retired home a few yrs ago.

In first past the post elections, like some of the US elections and the UK it's more likely for a big party to get elected as independents are just "wasted" votes. For example, Clare would be split into 4 seats, lets call them North South East and West, if 1 party was to be considered the most popular party in Clare there would be a very good chance that 1 party could get all 4 seats.

Don't get me started on the US collegiate vote, it's good that 1 state can't decide the whole election but it makes my head hurt trying to figure it out.

Marty Xavier · 07-02-2020 01:25PM

ok people lets call it

1 Dooley
2 Crowe
3 Breen
4 Garvey

Clareman · 07-02-2020 01:28PM

I'd say Dooley, Crowe and Breen are almost guaranteed, it'll be between McNamara and Carey for the last seat, I haven't seen anything to suggest that Garvey will get in but it all depends on transfers, if she can hold on till the later rounds she has a very good chance but she will need to get a substantial first preference vote I think as I don't think she'll be getting many transfers.

Berty · 07-02-2020 01:43PM

For me, after moving to the county some months ago this is my first election vote in the county so I'm only seeing some candidates information for the first time, and in most cases only just last night in the post box. I'm also only ever hearing some of the candidates names for the first time as well.

opinionated3 · 07-02-2020 01:49PM

I'll predict....
1 Crowe
2 Dooley
3 Breen
4 McNamara.
........... And when the next election comes around nothing will have changed....... More people on trolleys, homeless, rural v Dublin divide, drug abuse rampant, workers paying tax through the nose and getting nothing for it etc.....
I hate elections.

funnyname · 07-02-2020 02:02PM

1 Crowe
2 Dooley
3 McNamara
4 Garvey

Clareman · 07-02-2020 02:30PM

funnyname wrote: »

1 Crowe
2 Dooley
3 McNamara
4 Garvey

Wow no FG would be a major shock

Clareman · 07-02-2020 02:32PM

Berty wrote: »

For me, after moving to the county some months ago this is my first election vote in the county so I'm only seeing some candidates information for the first time, and in most cases only just last night in the post box. I'm also only ever hearing some of the candidates names for the first time as well.

There's no need for so many candidates in Clare, FG and FF have traditionally split the seats with a fight for the last seat, Labour have often had a strong presence and the likes of James Breen have gotten an independent seat, this time around I can see a protest vote for Green and SF but I'd say Crowe and Dooley are set, Breen is our "minister" so the forth seat is up for grabs, I'd imagine McNamara is the nost likely but it will all depend on how split the non-FF/FG vote will go.

Marty Xavier · 07-02-2020 02:33PM

Would love to see Mc Namara and Garvey get in but I don't see it, surely FG will have to get one across the line.
Personally I think Garvey will be more transfer friendly than you would guess. I think she will take alot of transfers from SF and some of the independents that will get knocked out early as will McNamara also benefit form transfers..
I think she has the edge on McNamara though for No.1s momentum seems to be with her.

Clareman · 07-02-2020 02:42PM

Crowe and Dooley will get in thanks to transfers when McInerney gets knocked out. Breen will get in thanks to transfers from Carey, McNamara is very transfer friendly from FG so he could get a lot of Carey's transfers but if he's behind Carey or Garvey then his transfers would probably go to Carey. I'd imagine SF and Garvey would be very transfer friendly between each other as a bit of a protest vote.

In my opinion SF have missed a great opportunity by not putting more of a push in Clare, the fourth seat is up for grabs in my opinion.

Berty · 07-02-2020 03:20PM

Of course I can only see the snippets of the election promises on the cards that came in the door but for the 2 Indys who speak about Shannon Airport I wonder what effect they can have on a Private Company by getting into Government.

Marty Xavier · 07-02-2020 05:41PM

None, zip. I think an Independent vote isn't really going to achieve anything, see Michael Harty for instance , was completely frustrated by it all.

funnyname · 07-02-2020 06:14PM

I'm most likely wrong on the no FG TD for Clare but I'll give ye my reason for calling it like I did. I was very surprised to see LV in Clare today, there are a lot more marginal FG constituencies to be visiting the day before the polls open.

So they must be concerned about losing both TDs. No labour candidate so McN will pick up that vote as well as a good chunk of Harry's protest vote. There is a surge for the Greens and SF (although they would have been better of sticking with Moran).

It will all depend on transfers, if FG can keep most of them in their family then they are safe else it's squeaky bum time.

golfball37 · 07-02-2020 06:37PM

Crowe
Dooley
Carey
McNamara

I am voting for Michael Leahy, McNamara no 2 to keep FFG out.

ger664 · 07-02-2020 09:56PM

I would call it as follows.

1. Crowe (probably on the first count) FF machine has really got behind Crowe as if Dooleys tops and brings a second seat he would be looking for a Ministerial Seat which would be egg of facetime for Martin

2. Dooley (after Rita McInerey getrs eliminated with Crowes Surplus)

3. Breen (Careys elimination will get him home)

4. Between McNamarra, Garvey and Conway. very hard to call. McNamarra will have a good vote from the Farming Community due to his support during the recent Beef Strikes he may get votes/transfer from that community outside of tradtional party alligenceces. Conway has been canvassing very heavily in Ennis (Carey's turf) during the campaign Garvey will be very transfer friendly

Clareman · 07-02-2020 10:08PM

Wow I forgot completely about Conway

lab man · 07-02-2020 10:41PM

i think martin conway will get all the votes from milltown to north clare gabriel keating could take alot of west clare votes from rita mc for (pat breen ) kilrush is a main fg area but could get a lot of sf votes this time round. joe carey has all ennis to himself this time round compared to last time as molloy collaran had a big vote there hard to puck the 4 mine are
crowe ttp
m conway, as clare always chance a new guy
breen
ml mc namara because of his presence in the farming protest he said he'd represent the 7 farmers for free will get all joe woulfes votes transfered to him

ger664 · 07-02-2020 11:02PM

lab man

The only way I see FG getting 2 seats is a 2 FF 2 FG return for Clare with them picking up the fourth seat. Their core vote is not 2 quotas especially as they have been in Govt for 8-9 years.

lab man · 08-02-2020 11:18AM

going to be a great count

funnyname · 08-02-2020 11:27AM

lab man wrote: »

i think martin conway will get all the votes from milltown to north clare gabriel keating could take alot of west clare votes from rita mc for (pat breen ) kilrush is a main fg area but could get a lot of sf votes this time round. joe carey has all ennis to himself this time round compared to last time as molloy collaran had a big vote there hard to puck the 4 mine are
crowe ttp
m conway, as clare always chance a new guy
breen
ml mc namara because of his presence in the farming protest he said he'd represent the 7 farmers for free will get all joe woulfes votes transfered to him

Martin Conway will get less votes in NC than you think due to his shenanigans at the local elections.

lab man · 08-02-2020 03:27PM

funnyname wrote:

Martin Conway will get less votes in NC than you think due to his shenanigans at the local elections.

didnt know of any messing he done

funnyname · 08-02-2020 03:37PM

lab man wrote: »

didnt know of any messing he done

Here

fire_man · 08-02-2020 06:50PM

Who did he back in local election?

Banner2theend · 09-02-2020 10:29AM

Does anyone think that FG will lose both their 2 Dail seats in the Banner county today? Violet Anne Wynne (SF) could be the big surprise and along with Michael McNamara (Ind). It is expected that Cathal Crowe and Timmy Dooley both FF, will be part of the 33rd Dail. Could be an historic day in Clare politics!

Johnboy1951 · 09-02-2020 11:01AM

I would not be at all surprised to see both
Violet Anne Wynne (SF) and Michael McNamara (Ind)
elected.
What happens after that would be a mystery to me

Marty Xavier · 09-02-2020 11:27AM

Crowe, Wynne, McNamara, polling strongly, Breen, Dooley, Garvey then follow. Not sure how transfer friendly Wynne will be if the quota not reached. Crowes transfers could drag Dooley home unfortunately.

golfball37 · 09-02-2020 12:48PM

That’s some FF vote. Sad we still vote for them in these numbers but Crowe is a good candidate. SF will depend on staying ahead of Rita Mc I’d say.

GE2020 *Mod Note in First Post*

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GE2020 Mod Note in First Post