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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #3212
    laurah591
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    Any word on the suspected St James case.... that's over 24 hours now?


  • #3213
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    With it approaching the month mark now since the first death by coronavirus surely there must be a better idea of how dangerous it is.
    Apparently China expereince about 92,000 deaths in a winter season due to flu. Most deaths occur in November, December, Jan, Feb, March. So you'd expect about 18400 deaths across mainland china from flu per winter month. Hubei is 60 million people which is 4% of China's population. Youd expect roughly 736 deaths in HUbei from seasonal flu this month. Its 4 days off a month, since the first death from coronavirus occurred, and 549 have died. Granted it will probably be about another 60 or so deaths a day for these lasy 4 days so it will probably total about 780 . Almost the exact same as seasonal flu. I suppose you've to take into account that flu may have infected far more people though


  • #3214
    circadian
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 8,321 Mod ✭✭✭✭circadian


    I think it's the liklihood of complications with this vs flu is the difference. It appears to be moving more easily than the flu and I wonder when herd immunity will begin to slow the movement. It certainly appears to be much more potent amongst over 60's and since it's a complete unknown then it'll be tracked much more keenly than seasonal flu.


  • #3215
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,879 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Hey President XI


  • #3216
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    car_radio19834 wrote: »
    And they'll get it too. Mad how billions just appears for things like fires and this.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225081513307447301

    Mad that amount is still a fraction of our children's hospital.


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  • #3217
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    sweetie wrote: »
    Spoke to a doctor from the Mater tonight who said they had a patient in isolation. Just mentioned in passing as I was buying an item from her.
    Did they say they had coronavirus though - or even if it was suspected?

    I was in isolation with my wife in the maternity hospital here because of flu. Pregnant women getting sick is generally more serious


  • #3218
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    wakka12 wrote: »
    With it approaching the month mark now since the first death by coronavirus surely there must be a better idea of how dangerous it is.
    Apparently China expereince about 92,000 deaths in a winter season due to flu. Most deaths occur in November, December, Jan, Feb, March. So you'd expect about 18400 deaths across mainland china from flu per winter month. Hubei is 60 million people which is 4% of China's population. Youd expect roughly 736 deaths in HUbei from seasonal flu this month. Its 4 days off a month, since the first death from coronavirus occurred, and 549 have died. Granted it will probably be about another 60 or so deaths a day for these lasy 4 days so it will probably total about 780 . Almost the exact same as seasonal flu. I suppose you've to take into account that flu may have infected far more people though


    I'm curious where you got those figures. Eh, I imagine a new virus will always cause more deaths in the beginning.



    So, what's going on with the created anxiety in the media? It's good to play it safe, but there has been some exagerrated information. I imaigne it's just for money in contrary to all my theories tbh.


  • #3219
    car_radio19834
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭car_radio19834


    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225188709458489345


  • #3220
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Two cases in Hong Kong in critical condition
    Three family members who didnt recently visit mainland China have also been infected
    https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/11/216044/Family-of-three-with-no-travel-history-infected

    I would imagine Hong Kong is one place that is bound to become full scale epidemic very soon, no containing something in a population that dense


    Good timing with how Hong Kong wasn't screening patients. Conspiracy theories aside, there is something very off that such a city wasn't screening arrivals.


  • #3221
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    creditcarder wrote: »
    I'm curious where you got those figures. Eh, I imagine a new virus will always cause more deaths in the beginning.



    So, what's going on with the created anxiety in the media? It's good to play it safe, but there has been some exagerrated information. I imaigne it's just for money in contrary to all my theories tbh.

    Which figures>? Somebody posted that 92,000 deaths occur from flu in China a while back, which I was surprised by, they also posted a link to a source about it.


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  • #3222
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Which figures>? Somebody posted that 92,000 deaths occur from flu in China a while back, which I was surprised by, they also posted a link to a source about it.


    That is strange. I thought it was something absurd like 82 :P



    Honestly, I think we can multiply any official flue figure by at least ten due to all the factors listed in this debacle and just local officials not wanting to give a bad name.


  • #3223
    sweetie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,797 ✭✭✭sweetie


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    Did they say they had coronavirus though - or even if it was suspected?

    I was in isolation with my wife in the maternity hospital here because of flu. Pregnant women getting sick is generally more serious

    When she couldn't meet me yesterday due to her shift, today in passing I said 'this coronavirus is getting worrying, what do you think?' and she said something like 'we have someone in isolation in the mater.' I assumed it was the case I'd heard mentioned but when I checked this thread I see that case is in James's. So possibly suspected but probably nothing to it, hopefully.


  • #3224
    daheff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,150 ✭✭✭daheff


    Dante7 wrote: »
    Completely hypothetical, but if a virus was engineered to be mainly Chinese race specific, decimating the elderly, the Chinese leadership would be the main suspects..

    I was thinking about this possibility....and completely unfounded and 100% speculation...thought to myself, what if this is a disease they are engineering to release in Hong Kong...then come to the rescue with an engineered cure? HK people are then so thankful they let China take over??

    But the virus escaped early and they haven't fully engineered it and the cure...so it's now running amok.


  • #3225
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    daheff wrote: »
    I was thinking about this possibility....and completely unfounded and 100% speculation...thought to myself, what if this is a disease they are engineering to release in Hong Kong...then come to the rescue with an engineered cure? HK people are then so thankful they let China take over??

    But the virus escaped early and they haven't fully engineered it and the cure...so it's now running amok.
    Completely hypothetical, but what if extra terrestrial Godzilla monkeys were experimenting on us, and then somebody found out the truth and the CIA psychics something something.


  • #3226
    macapaca
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45 ✭macapaca


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    Completely hypothetical, but what if extra terrestrial Godzilla monkeys were experimenting on us, and then somebody found out the truth and the CIA psychics something something.

    It's time to drop the nukes


  • #3227
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    Completely hypothetical, but what if extra terrestrial Godzilla monkeys were experimenting on us, and then somebody found out the truth and the CIA psychics something something.


    CT aside, having the virus in Hong Kong would suit China quite well, and they are not screening people coming in.



    I think it's just good timing for the CCP


  • #3228
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,587 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Which figures>? Somebody posted that 92,000 deaths occur from flu in China a while back, which I was surprised by, they also posted a link to a source about it.
    creditcarder wrote: »
    CT aside, having the virus in Hong Kong would suit China quite well, and they are not screening people coming in.



    I think it's just good timing for the CCP

    Just saw this on twitter: The director of Wuhan Disease Control and Prevention Center stated in public on Jan.19, 2020 that no related cases have been found among close contacts and that the new coronavirus is not highly infectious
    The CCP has been concealing the epidemic all the time

    I wonder if they couldn't detect it? 2 week incubation? Or hiding figures?


    Video on this ladies tweets:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd


  • #3229
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,167 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    There are currently 27,602 confirmed cases worldwide, including 564 fatalities.

    28,276 confirmed cases worldwide, including 565 fatalities...numbers just in now. Further jump in confirmed, all in the space of an hour or so.


  • #3230
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    Curious about the Yokohama issue. I mean how long was the carrier on the boat for vs how many people are infected?



    https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200205/k10012273171000.html


    It seems quite small imo.


  • #3231
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    10 more people on the boat in Japan have been diagnosed, total 20 now. Will be a very interesting sample study of the effects, all infected roughly the same time


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  • #3232
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    wakka12 wrote: »
    10 more people on the boat in Japan have been diagnosed, total 20 now. Will be a very interesting sample study of the effects, all infected roughly the same time


    Imo, it's not looking too bad. The tests started on Monday, the dude got off maybe a few days ago and had to wait to be tested, so it doesn't seem to be quite as spreadable as people are saying and I kind of wonder if it spreadable asympoteticlly.


  • #3233
    Motherof123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 152 ✭✭Motherof123


    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Coronavirus-fears-at-Cork-University-Hospital-Young-male-is-put-in-isolation-after-showing-symptoms-of-the-deadly-virus-d50a881f-d786-43d6-9e99-0cdbba02739b-ds


  • #3234
    Motherof123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 152 ✭✭Motherof123


    Coronavirus fears at Cork University Hospital; Young male is put in isolation after showing symptoms of the deadly virus


  • #3235
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    creditcarder wrote: »
    Imo, it's not looking too bad. The tests started on Monday, the dude got off maybe a few days ago and had to wait to be tested, so it doesn't seem to be quite as spreadable as people are saying and I kind of wonder if it spreadable asympoteticlly.

    How does 1 person infecting (at least, so far) 20 others not seem spreadable??


  • #3236
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    The recent chart showing 27.4k from 20mins ago is already out of date, and the 5th of Feb isn't technically fully over yet.

    FkGeD00.png


  • #3237
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    The statistics are for the day before so it is 27k on the 4th of feb


  • #3238
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,290 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Motherof123 wrote: »
    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Coronavirus-fears-at-Cork-University-Hospital-Young-male-is-put-in-isolation-after-showing-symptoms-of-the-deadly-virus-d50a881f-d786-43d6-9e99-0cdbba02739b-ds


    We'll have to do a Wuhan on Cork.


  • #3239
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    83779203_10151387373094990_6990226962648137728_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_ohc=g2_xIFaA9s0AX8aTSWa&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=b1b61eeacce81360e8e61c30d5698fa4&oe=5EDA396F


  • #3240
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,303 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    The Latest updates from the Guardian.

    Small Canada town prepares for the arrival of 200 Coronavirus evacuees, among other stories.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/06/coronavirus-live-updates-in-china-wuhan-coronaviruses-outbreak-death-toll-latest-update-news

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



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  • #3241
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    The Latest updates from the Guardian.
    Small Canada town prepares for the arrival of 200 Coronavirus evacuees, among other stories.
    Usually best to avoid the smaller niche minority left-media sources such as the Guardian.

    Best source for 'flu news' would be a subject multi-source int'l aggregator e.g.
    https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Hot+Topics/China+Coronavirus+Outbreak?type=ln

    Be aware though the 'most read' category are often the more dramatic or conspiracy type articles, simply as they make better headlines or click bait, and sell newspapers quicker at the stands. Still plenty to choose from, and updates roll in every 5mins.


This discussion has been closed.
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