Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

q85dw7osi4lebg · 04-02-2020 1:01pm

There will be many bag holders made here.

Talk about getting ahead of yourself.

Sabre Man · 04-02-2020 1:11pm

Telsa will probably be included in the S&P 500 in one or two quarters, which will require lots of ETFs and funds to buy shares. Is it possible that someone is buying in anticipation of this?

themossinator · 04-02-2020 1:14pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Yesterday's volume was 46.4 million shares. That's got to be more than just amateur investors.

It did 2x Apple volume and 5x microsoft, according to CNBC, that's just mental

Timmaay · 04-02-2020 1:30pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/tesla-stock-surging-yet-again-tsla-jumps-past-800-in-early-trading.html

Gonna be another fun day!

Rashers Big Log · 04-02-2020 2:07pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Yesterday's volume was 46.4 million shares. That's got to be more than just amateur investors.

Momentum hedgies - when the rug gets pulled and the algos kick in the other way, look out below. Trade carefully.

Rashers Big Log · 04-02-2020 2:09pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Telsa will probably be included in the S&P 500 in one or two quarters, which will require lots of ETFs and funds to buy shares. Is it possible that someone is buying in anticipation of this?

What makes you think they’ll ever be in the S&P? They lost 700 mm last year ffs! Have never turned a profit

Rashers Big Log · 04-02-2020 2:12pm

Just an FYI the last time I saw Cramer pump a stock so hard it was TLRY - they yell, you sell

Trade carefully

Rashers Big Log · 04-02-2020 2:18pm

ELM327 wrote: »

I'm just laughing at the shorts.
This is great, anytime opening my revolut is showing me more and more gains.

I'm not cashing out, if it drops back to $400 that's still me in the green towards my cybertruck.

cc @bagholderquotes

themossinator · 04-02-2020 2:20pm

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

What makes you think they’ll ever be in the S&P? They lost 700 mm last year ffs! Have never turned a profit

don't think that's true that they've never turned a profit - hope it gets into the S&P, just for the fume

phantom_lord · 04-02-2020 2:27pm

unkel wrote: »

This was posted when TSLA was at about USD230 about 9 months ago

And it was 170 a month later.

Sabre Man · 04-02-2020 2:48pm

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

What makes you think they’ll ever be in the S&P? They lost 700 mm last year ffs! Have never turned a profit

That's because they've been investing in future growth at a fast pace.

ELM327 · 04-02-2020 2:57pm

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

cc @bagholderquotes

edgelord nonsense

themossinator · 04-02-2020 3:02pm

anyone that shorted this yesterday will have to cover now with the gap up

Timmaay · 04-02-2020 3:06pm

Thargor wrote: »

Hold for a 1000 at this rate.

Might as well lol.

littlevillage · 04-02-2020 3:18pm

Tesla = pure madness. Fair play to anyone who toughed it out.

Not Me ... I sold out at $300 a few Months ago .. (sigh!!).

Thankfully I held onto my Lithium holdings (Albemarle & SQM). They are having a great day today too.

Rashers Big Log · 04-02-2020 3:39pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

That's because they've been investing in future growth at a fast pace.

Why is their Capex down every quarter then? Point me to the section of any of the last 4 10Q’s which shows any “investing in future growth”

I await your detailed reply.

ELM327 · 04-02-2020 4:12pm

Sold at 900$
Will reinvest when it drops.
It's overvalued now and I fully intend to buy back in using the profit when the shares return to a realistic market value

Timmaay · 04-02-2020 4:53pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Sold at 900$
Will reinvest when it drops.
It's overvalued now and I fully intend to buy back in using the profit when the shares return to a realistic market value

Snap

Sabre Man · 04-02-2020 5:02pm

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

Why is their Capex down every quarter then? Point me to the section of any of the last 4 10Q’s which shows any “investing in future growth”

I await your detailed reply.

Gigafactory Shanghai?

Rashers Big Log · 04-02-2020 5:46pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Sold at 900$
Will reinvest when it drops.
It's overvalued now and I fully intend to buy back in using the profit when the shares return to a realistic market value

Congrats. Good trade. Just out of curiosity, would you share the metrics that would constitute a “realistic market value” for TSLA?

Rashers Big Log · 04-02-2020 5:48pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Gigafactory Shanghai?

The CCP paid for that and TSLA has an agreement where they must hit certain sales/ employment targets. Again, point to anything in their books that indicated an “investment in growth”? Elon seems to be busy taking victory laps and crowd sourcing AI techs on twitter.

unkel · 04-02-2020 7:30pm

Bradley Fat Warlock wrote: »

730 USD. :eek:

One day later....

.....930 USD :eek: :eek:

cefh17 · 04-02-2020 8:33pm

unkel wrote: »

One day later....

.....930 USD :eek: :eek:

Will we have three :eek: tomorrow? I patiently wait to see

lucky john · 04-02-2020 8:35pm

Thankfully I'm on the right side of this to find it highly entertaining. Has Skynet hacked the Nasdaq bots

unkel · 04-02-2020 8:52pm

lucky john wrote: »

Thankfully I'm on the right side of this

I think the only right side of this is to be long and sold all today

Unfortunately, I sold myself a long time ago when I was happy with a substantial profit in a very short time.

HamSarris · 04-02-2020 8:59pm

Push it sideways, then continue the dump

themossinator · 04-02-2020 9:01pm

lot of selling near the end there - 7% drop in the last 10 mins

Thargor · 04-02-2020 9:52pm

Timmaay wrote: »

Just about to break 700!

unkel wrote: »

USD715 a second ago :eek:

ProjectMoose wrote: »

730 USD. :eek:

Timmaay wrote: »

To cash out and take a 30% gain in 2 or 3wks, or to hold on for 800 hmmmm???

Thargor wrote: »

Hold for a 1000 at this rate.

sk8board wrote: »

since the results last week it’s not following any rational data analysis or valuation logic.
They’ve added almost 20bn (!) in market cap already today.
It feels like that time oil went close to the mental barrier of $100 for the first time and traders drove it up to get the monkey off their back - in the case of tsla if feels like they are going after Toyotas MC, get the headlines and then come back

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

This is an auto manufacturer who have lost money for a decade including 700 million USD this year. They ‘delivered’ 360,000 cars this yr, barely touching low end of guidance. They’ve guided for 500,000 cars next year (below top end guidance last year) they have a factory in China that may or may not be at all operational this quarter. The CEO is likely one of the greatest fraudsters of the last 50 years and is releasing drug fuelled dance tunes on twitter while saying he’s going to cure brain cancer and Parkinson’s. For gods sake man, trade carefully.

Well done on your profits but think about the fundamentals here. You are watching a black box frenzy and trust me, your chance of catching the top is insanely low.

Camilla Damaged Economist wrote: »

What in God's name

Thargor wrote: »

I was joking but the OP thanked the post so I want to make that clear that I was joking. Dont take advice from the internet. Think about taking out your original stake or a chunk anyway, this is Bitcoin mania, it could fall hard, nobody knows.

Can you believe these conversations took place only 24 hours ago?

sk8board · 04-02-2020 10:34pm

Peaked at 180bn market cap today before the sell-off to 160bn, albeit still a big inter day gain. The late sell off should make tomorrow’s opening interesting.

A car company with no profitable calendar year since it’s foundation, making 350-500k cars annually, has a market cap of $160,000,000,000.00.

I find this fascinating to watch tbh. Zero interest in touching it.

drunkmonkey · 04-02-2020 11:02pm

ITM gained more % today than Tesla. Somebody is wrong about the future, I'm just not sure who yet.

Arrival · 05-02-2020 12:50am

Anyone else come across this guy's posts on wsb? https://www.reddit.com/user/WSBgod

He'll get all that tax free before he turns 60, and apparently he's already retired since turning 30

Not that I'd bother trying but can we trade options in Ireland like that?

Rashers Big Log · 05-02-2020 11:03am

Anyone catch the near 100 point drop at the end of the trading day that brought it from 960 to 870 in the blink of an eye? That’s how quickly you can get burned on either side of this trade.
Trade Carefully

ELM327 · 05-02-2020 11:16am

Sold yesterday, I see the pre market trading its already down to 845

05-02-2020 11:36am

ELM327 wrote: »

Sold yesterday........

Didn't you say yesterday you weren't selling?

unkel · 05-02-2020 11:37am

ELM327 wrote: »

Sold yesterday, I see the pre market trading its already down to 845

You had some balls to ride it out so long. Looks like you got out at a very good point. That's a substantial part of the loan on your Tesla paid off I guess, fair play

unkel · 05-02-2020 11:38am

Augeo wrote: »

Didn't you say yesterday you weren't selling?

Yes he did, he said yesterday he sold at USD900

gonko · 05-02-2020 1:39pm

I've been watching this from the sidelines. Pure madness.
It's more entertaining than being drunk at a roulette wheel in Vegas.

sk8board · 05-02-2020 2:11pm

some interesting comparisons made here, qualcomm etc

https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-epic-rally-echoes-past-oil-bitcoin-bubbles-11580853363

"You can explain it with math,” he said, “but you don’t need to explain it with math to know that it’s silly.”

ELM327 · 05-02-2020 2:14pm

Augeo wrote: »

Didn't you say yesterday you weren't selling?

I did, but the price got shaky, went down, went back up to >900.

unkel wrote: »

You had some balls to ride it out so long. Looks like you got out at a very good point. That's a substantial part of the loan on your Tesla paid off I guess, fair play

I wasnt intending selling at all but it is clear from any basis analysis that the stock is 6X overvalued at the moment based on 500k cars per year.
With TSLA there's always going to be some speculation but this is a bubble.

Funds still sitting in my revolut account, will be going back in to TSLA when the shares drop. I intend this to pay for my cybertruck

Am going to invest in a couple of others in the interim

sk8board · 05-02-2020 2:17pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Sold yesterday, I see the pre market trading its already down to 845

a good trade.

pre-market numbers looking v 'challenging', it'll be interesting to see if the price get support after this mornings sell off and can survive a haircut by the end of the day

ELM327 · 05-02-2020 2:18pm

sk8board wrote: »

good trade.

pre-market numbers looking v 'challenging', it'll be interesting to see if the price get support after this mornings sell off and can survive a haircut by the end of the day

Yes, I missed $30 or so off the top yesterday but to call it that close to the peak so far, I'm happy.

They are going to plummet today and tomorrow IMO. Probably to ~700. Still overpriced. Today would be a good day to short.

Timmaay · 05-02-2020 2:19pm

Lol

sk8board · 05-02-2020 2:22pm

Timmaay wrote: »

Lol

considering they've just bought 6 weeks ago, I think that kid is about to learn an important lesson

sk8board · 05-02-2020 2:31pm

woof. opened at 823 and already at 790

05-02-2020 2:45pm

ELM327 wrote: »

...........

I wasnt intending selling at all but it is clear from any basis analysis that the stock is 6X overvalued at the moment based on 500k cars per year.
With TSLA there's always going to be some speculation but this is a bubble.................

You reckon $150 is a fair price for Tesla?

I sold out sometime in 2018 after a few trades .......... I wasn't comfortable buying back in at any point since tbh.

ELM327 · 05-02-2020 2:51pm

Augeo wrote: »

You reckon $150 is a fair price for Tesla?

I sold out sometime in 2018 after a few trades .......... I wasn't comfortable buying back in at any point since tbh.

In order to justify the current (yesterday) market cap of >130bn they need to sell 3m cars a year.

05-02-2020 3:04pm

ELM327 wrote: »

In order to justify the current (yesterday) market cap of >130bn they need to sell 3m cars a year.

Mmmm, the stockmarket isn't always rational. I don't really see Tesla as a car company in the traditional sense. There's tech, battery, cars, data all thrown into the mix.

If you looked at it rationally you'd never buy shares in it, IMO.

sk8board · 05-02-2020 3:09pm

ELM327 wrote: »

In order to justify the current (yesterday) market cap of >130bn they need to sell 3m cars a year.

even their own most ambitious factory building targets has them achieving an annual capacity of 2m cars in 2030

positron · 05-02-2020 3:42pm

Tesla vs other car companies is fast becoming like comparing Amazon to Tesco and the likes.

unkel · 05-02-2020 4:13pm

ELM327 wrote: »

In order to justify the current (yesterday) market cap of >130bn they need to sell 3m cars a year.

Those are the kinda reasoning / stats that old skool investors like Warren Buffet use. Made him very rich very slowly over 60-70 years investing in Coca-Cola etc.

He missed out on all of the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and now Tesla though...

Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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