Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

Arrival

Anyone else come across this guy's posts on wsb? https://www.reddit.com/user/WSBgod

He'll get all that tax free before he turns 60, and apparently he's already retired since turning 30

Not that I'd bother trying but can we trade options in Ireland like that?

Rashers Big Log

Anyone catch the near 100 point drop at the end of the trading day that brought it from 960 to 870 in the blink of an eye? That’s how quickly you can get burned on either side of this trade.
Trade Carefully

ELM327

Sold yesterday, I see the pre market trading its already down to 845

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Sold yesterday........

Didn't you say yesterday you weren't selling?

unkel

ELM327 wrote: »

Sold yesterday, I see the pre market trading its already down to 845

You had some balls to ride it out so long. Looks like you got out at a very good point. That's a substantial part of the loan on your Tesla paid off I guess, fair play

unkel

Augeo wrote: »

Didn't you say yesterday you weren't selling?

Yes he did, he said yesterday he sold at USD900

gonko

I've been watching this from the sidelines. Pure madness.
It's more entertaining than being drunk at a roulette wheel in Vegas.

sk8board

some interesting comparisons made here, qualcomm etc

https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-epic-rally-echoes-past-oil-bitcoin-bubbles-11580853363

"You can explain it with math,” he said, “but you don’t need to explain it with math to know that it’s silly.”

ELM327

Augeo wrote: »

Didn't you say yesterday you weren't selling?

I did, but the price got shaky, went down, went back up to >900.

unkel wrote: »

You had some balls to ride it out so long. Looks like you got out at a very good point. That's a substantial part of the loan on your Tesla paid off I guess, fair play

I wasnt intending selling at all but it is clear from any basis analysis that the stock is 6X overvalued at the moment based on 500k cars per year.
With TSLA there's always going to be some speculation but this is a bubble.


Funds still sitting in my revolut account, will be going back in to TSLA when the shares drop. I intend this to pay for my cybertruck


Am going to invest in a couple of others in the interim

sk8board

ELM327 wrote: »

Sold yesterday, I see the pre market trading its already down to 845

a good trade.

pre-market numbers looking v 'challenging', it'll be interesting to see if the price get support after this mornings sell off and can survive a haircut by the end of the day

ELM327

sk8board wrote: »

good trade.

pre-market numbers looking v 'challenging', it'll be interesting to see if the price get support after this mornings sell off and can survive a haircut by the end of the day

Yes, I missed $30 or so off the top yesterday but to call it that close to the peak so far, I'm happy.


They are going to plummet today and tomorrow IMO. Probably to ~700. Still overpriced. Today would be a good day to short.

Timmaay

Lol

sk8board

Timmaay wrote: »

Lol

considering they've just bought 6 weeks ago, I think that kid is about to learn an important lesson

sk8board

woof. opened at 823 and already at 790

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

...........


I wasnt intending selling at all but it is clear from any basis analysis that the stock is 6X overvalued at the moment based on 500k cars per year.
With TSLA there's always going to be some speculation but this is a bubble.................

You reckon $150 is a fair price for Tesla?

I sold out sometime in 2018 after a few trades .......... I wasn't comfortable buying back in at any point since tbh.

ELM327

Augeo wrote: »

You reckon $150 is a fair price for Tesla?

I sold out sometime in 2018 after a few trades .......... I wasn't comfortable buying back in at any point since tbh.

In order to justify the current (yesterday) market cap of >130bn they need to sell 3m cars a year.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

In order to justify the current (yesterday) market cap of >130bn they need to sell 3m cars a year.

Mmmm, the stockmarket isn't always rational. I don't really see Tesla as a car company in the traditional sense. There's tech, battery, cars, data all thrown into the mix.

If you looked at it rationally you'd never buy shares in it, IMO.

sk8board

ELM327 wrote: »

In order to justify the current (yesterday) market cap of >130bn they need to sell 3m cars a year.

even their own most ambitious factory building targets has them achieving an annual capacity of 2m cars in 2030

positron

Tesla vs other car companies is fast becoming like comparing Amazon to Tesco and the likes.

unkel

ELM327 wrote: »

In order to justify the current (yesterday) market cap of >130bn they need to sell 3m cars a year.

Those are the kinda reasoning / stats that old skool investors like Warren Buffet use. Made him very rich very slowly over 60-70 years investing in Coca-Cola etc.

He missed out on all of the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and now Tesla though...

Rashers Big Log

unkel wrote: »

Those are the kinda reasoning / stats that old skool investors like Warren Buffet use. Made him very rich very slowly over 60-70 years investing in Coca-Cola etc.

He missed out on all of the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and now Tesla though...

Are you joking? AAPL is perhaps Buffet’s all time best investment in terms of profit. The reason he invested in AAPL is the same reason he always invests in proper, dividend paying value, the numbers work.

Anyone who believes buying or short selling TSLA at this point is “investing” is deluded. It’s gambling in a casino and trust an actual pro here, the house always wins in the end https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/2019/11/17/heres-how-much-warren-buffett-has-made-on-apple.aspx

Rashers Big Log

Given the fact that 52,000 call options went yesterday at a 1000 USD strike expiring Fri I’d say a good few people are learning a very, very harsh lesson about the markets today
Trade Carefully

unkel

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

Are you joking? AAPL is perhaps Buffet’s all time best investment in terms of profit.

Apologies, didn't mean to mention Apple. I was kinda talking about actual innovative companies that mostly didn't make any profit and didn't look like they were going to make any profit for quite some time

themossinator

gotta feel for the people who bought at 900 plus !

unkel

The same kind of people who bought BTC at USD19k.

Thankfully for those people Tesla is unlikely to lose 85% of its ATH any time soon...

sk8board

dropped roughly $150 versus yesterday’s close and down 17% on the day at $734.
After hours is holding firm at that level.

drunkmonkey

unkel wrote: »

The same kind of people who bought BTC at USD19k.

Those bitcoins are now paying interest. When do you reckon Tesla will start paying 5% dividends monthly?
19k is going to look cheap in the future, it's like land there not making any more of it.

ELM327

themossinator wrote: »

gotta feel for the people who bought at 900 plus !

if you timed it right you could have bought at 900 and sold at 960.
It's not about price it's about timing


When you hear them talking on newstalk about tesla stocks, it's too late. Get out.

Rashers Big Log

ELM327 wrote: »

if you timed it right you could have bought at 900 and sold at 960.
It's not about price it's about timing


When you hear them talking on newstalk about tesla stocks, it's too late. Get out.

lol nobody can “time the market” thinking you can is irrational and really just gambling. In the end all that really matter are fundamentals. If you stick to a numerically based valuation metric/ thesis and invest in strong, dividend paying companies, you’ll most likely make good money in the long run.

Agree with your second point about newstalk though.

Not investment advice btw, do your own research

ELM327

Rashers Big Log wrote: »

lol nobody can “time the market” thinking you can is irrational and really just gambling. In the end all that really matter are fundamentals. If you stick to a numerically based valuation metric/ thesis and invest in strong, dividend paying companies, you’ll most likely make good money in the long run.

Agree with your second point about newstalk though.

Not investment advice btw, do your own research

You absolutely can time the market.
Whether it's chance or methodology (it's generally both) depends on the individual!