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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #362
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    GFS is also showing very widespread orange warning gusts for this Sunday. I think the long fetch is increasing the power of forecast winds inland. Potentially more wide ranging and damaging than Brendan simply due to the huge windfield.


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    #363
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    gfs-0-240.png?12

    At 10 days out this storm appears. All very unstable. It's going to be a weather forecast courtesy of D'Unbelievables next week.

    'wind, rain, sleet, sun, snow, hail' etc. All we're missing is a forest fire and conditions conducive to the appearance of 'the black beetle'!


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    #364
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,749 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    indeed the latest GFS is now a major downgrade for the storm. It is now tracking much further north with the north of Scotland taking the burnt of the storm. It will still be windy but as of the latest run, we are out of the danger zone. However there is another major storm appearing for around the 14th/15th of February.

    162-289UK.GIF?04-12

    GFSOPEU12_168_1.png

    Even with big downgrades, next week is looking very unsettled and windy generally.

    Another potential storm waiting around the 14th/15th of February.

    GFSOPEU12_231_1.png


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    #365
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    ukgust.pngukgust.png


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    #366
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭typhoony


    the Armagedon Low is gone on this run, still tasty for Monday and Tuesday for a rash of snow showers.


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    #367
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,749 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    typhoony wrote: »
    the Armagedon Low is gone on this run, still tasty for Monday and Tuesday for a rash of snow showers.

    the cold is changing all the time too, latest runs is an upgrade in terms of cold for the 10th and 11th, but a downgrade for the 12th. Lot of chopping and changing to come in terms of cold/snow potential and indeed the wind potential. Tonights pub run will be interesting, will the storm be back in business or will it continue to push further northwards, this would put Ireland back in a milder situation generally. So much to play for over the next few days.


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    #368
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Extremely fascinating model watching. A far cry from this winter so far.


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    #369
    Santy2015
    Registered Users Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Sunday is looking the most windy going forward gusts of 120kph kerry cork


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    #370
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,350 ✭✭✭esposito


    Gonzo wrote: »
    the cold is changing all the time too, latest runs is an upgrade in terms of cold for the 10th and 11th, but a downgrade for the 12th. Lot of chopping and changing to come in terms of cold/snow potential and indeed the wind potential. Tonights pub run will be interesting, will the storm be back in business or will it continue to push further northwards, this would put Ireland back in a milder situation generally. So much to play for over the next few days.

    The pub run tonight will probably bring the storm back, seems to always be overdramatic but rarely comes to fruition.

    It would be nice to get a couple of days of widespread snow showers but a lot can change between now and next Monday as we all know.


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    #371
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,909 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The jma has the storm as does the ukmo and gem along with the icon. Strong support for the storm on Tuesday outside of the gfs
    Let's see what ecm comes out with!!


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    #372
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    We know what the GFS is like with these sorts of things but jeez, that is a proper chilly polar maritime northwesterly. Coldest I've seen in a while with thickness sub 518 dam and 850hPa temps going as low as -6 to -9C.

    Definitely more threats for a wider risk of wintry outbreaks across the country with this compared to the late January northwesterly. I'd expect a tone down in the cold after this run.

    ytbdKlM.png
    Those kind of thicknesses would suggest very little north Atlantic modification and would mean A Lot of heavy snow showers especially out west
    Digging out the car snow, a rare happening from that direction but it has happened before
    The air from cloud to ground would be cold enough for to maintain the snow
    Normally I'd be looking for - 10 uppers but not needed
    The lapse rate plus low pressure and 516 dam growing the snow showers
    Interesting stuff


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    #373
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    ECM has it. Downgrade though. Esp in the south.

    Edit. Still rough in the north.


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    #374
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Those kind of thicknesses would suggest very little north Atlantic modification and would mean A Lot of heavy snow showers especially out west
    Digging out the car snow, a rare happening from that direction but it has happened before
    The air from cloud to ground would be cold enough for to maintain the snow
    Normally I'd be looking for - 10 uppers but not needed
    The lapse rate plus low pressure and 516 dam growing the snow showers
    Interesting stuff

    Yes, January 1984-esque conditions like from 15th Jan 1984 below.

    gFqGfTE.gif

    Report on snowfalls from this NW'ly:

    https://www.rte.ie/archives/2018/1218/1017873-snow-covers-ireland/

    ECM 0z had 850hPa temps as low as -7C early on Tuesday 11th and subzero dew points too for most inland areas. EDIT: Down to -6C 850hPa and dew points still generally subzero later on Monday but brief, on 12z.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #375
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Those charts would also suggest thunder, and lots of it, for the NW of Ireland.

    giphy.gif

    New Moon



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    #376
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,909 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The uppers on the ecm and ukmo for Monday are nothing special!! The gfs is starting to look a bit lonely forecasting so much snow on Monday. Either way it looks like a 24hour event.
    As for the storm.......nobody knows certainly not the models but the trend this evening is to downgrade it


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    #377
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    ECM snow charts suggesting nothing out of the ordinary also. Some hill snow, maybe the odd flurry at lower levels if showers are heavy enough.

    lpWvjlX.png

    No surprise really that real storm potential is being downgraded run on run as these millennial winters are just incapable of producing them.

    New Moon



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    #378
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    christ,i love a good downgrade.


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    #379
    Santy2015
    Registered Users Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    squarecircles wrote: »
    christ,i love a good downgrade.

    Ah damn it!!


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    #380
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,350 ✭✭✭esposito


    squarecircles wrote: »
    christ,i love a good downgrade.


    It’s far from over yet. Could well upgrade, then downgrade then upgrade..


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    #381
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    esposito wrote: »
    It’s far from over yet. Could well upgrade, then downgrade then upgrade..

    A lot of 'weather' coming from Sunday on. A few storms showing up in FI so anything is possible.


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    #382
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,749 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    snow does look rather restricted to mostly high ground in Ulster, parts of the west and the Wicklow Mountains. Looks very good for Scotland but most of that is high ground as well. For now I wouldn't be expecting much more than what happened the other week, as the cold and snow potential will probably downgrade more over the next week, as it usually does.

    156-780UK.GIF?04-12


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    #383
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Downgrade is the word of the day,but we rarely get snow in Ireland ,the seas are too warm,and there's
    too much salt in the air,and its usually the watery variety,the storms are downgrading too and moving north,
    so we've dodged a bullet there too,and i for one am thankful,i don't need any more telephone poles coming
    down or roofs coming off sheds,we should be turning our attention to spring warmth although it will probably
    turn out to be a cool spring when the polar vortex loosens its grip but by then the days will have lenghtened
    considerably

    and the sun will be strong so there wouldn't be much chance of cold snowy weather, hopefully that cool spring
    doesn't ruin the begining of our summer.last summer was awful,we just cant get the snows or the storms like we
    did in the past and will just have to accept it, i for see more downgrades later regarding the snow potential as
    we progress through the week,there's very little chance of accumulating snow in the west at low level and
    even less so in the East.You just cant win but then again id prefer to able to get out and about.
    That violent storm for next Tuesday has vanished too so that should start to downgrade now on further runs. thank god.


    I hope i haven't depressed people too much with my gloomy glass half full outlook haha.

    Hopefully we get an epic snow blizzard sometime in the next 50 years but i wouldn't hold my breath knowing my luck.


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    #384
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    downgrade is the word of the day

    Dont know about that squarecircles, Sunday storm looks consistent and a possible fast moving depression on Saturday showing up now ( in range so in the +120 technical thread ).

    Weds looking very severe still, granted it is a long way off and the models are showing different tracks and strengths but the overall picture I think is still showing strong possibility for a storm. And maybe another one after that.

    Mw5tagB.png

    KF6psTw.png


    eBaodwa.png



    k7jjGC1.png

    ICON

    suTWx6t.png


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    #385
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,895 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Big difference yet between the ECM and GFS for Fri week.


    CppBxRE.png

    OSQThMk.png


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    #386
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,909 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Everything upgraded again on the gfs 18z!!
    Storm very much back on, severe with snowfall likely both before and after....
    It's getting closer folks!


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    #387
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    its drifted south on the 18z


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    #388
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Look at that 928-hPa low between Greenland and Iceland on Saturday!

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020412_096.png


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    #389
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Everything upgraded again on the gfs 18z!!
    Storm very much back on, severe with snowfall likely both before and after....
    It's getting closer folks!

    lol this is like a rocky fight


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    #390
    nthclare
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    Love rocky 4 when he arrives in Russia and the soundtracks really well done.
    The scenery is amazing too, and the tension added to the atmosphere is surreal.

    We could be in for a right pasting.
    Thankfully my contract gives me snow days or bad weather days when there's an orange or red warning.

    Im not going to be driving to East Clare from North Clare over 4 inches of snow and climb trees with a chainsaw hanging off me 😂


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    #391
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,749 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    since this afternoons run, it has shifted from nothern Scotland, back south, but further south than yesterdays runs. Severe winds over the bulk of the country but perhaps not as bad as what was shown yesterday but it would still be close to red alert territory with winds up to 130km/h in places, especially along the south coast. Southern England looks to be in real trouble if this was to verify.

    174-289UK.GIF?04-18

    An upgrade for snow too, particularly after the storm.

    198-780UK.GIF?04-18


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