FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

savj2

Would I be correct in saying that this winter may have been a good one for the icecaps in the Arctic?

A postive NAO, and strong polar vortex and strong westerlies preventing any cold breakouts from the Arctic, keeping all that cold air locked in.

pauldry

savj2 wrote: »

Would I be correct in saying that this winter may have been a good one for the icecaps in the Arctic?

A postive NAO, and strong polar vortex and strong westerlies preventing any cold breakouts from the Arctic, keeping all that cold air locked in.

It was but recent damage to the ice will ensure that extent falls low again.

2007 had a good Winter and was one of the lowest mins on record.

Gonzo

looks like the zonality ain't going away any time soon, further fuel for a mild February.





After a brief cool spell at the start of February, turning more unsettled and staying very mild into the middle of the month.

Mortelaro

Gonzo wrote: »

looks like the zonality ain't going away any time soon, further fuel for a mild February.





After a brief cool spell at the start of February, turning more unsettled and staying very mild into the middle of the month.

Our climactic norm then

https://youtu.be/tGRZBa4cKWA

Gonzo

Mortelaro wrote: »

Our climactic norm then

We do get alot of mild winters in Ireland, but last winter was exceptional and the first winter where I didn't see a single snowflake fall between 01 December and 28th of February. Earlier on in the year I felt that this winter of 2019/2020 just couldn't be as relentlessly mild and snow/ice free as 2018/2019; however here we are at the closing stages of winter and most of us with not a flake to show for it. Could winter 2020/2021 lead to a trio of exceptionally mild winters, I hope not! but wouldn't be surprised if it's just more of the same.

Mortelaro

It surely couldn't have been your first winter that you didn't see a single flake? There were many in the 90's!

typhoony

Mortelaro wrote: »

It surely couldn't have been your first winter that you didn't see a single flake? There were many in the 90's!

he's obviously a Millenial

Chris_5339762

Forgot to post these yesterday but the GFS did a proper decent pub run and came up with the mother of all storms.

Gonzo

Mortelaro wrote: »

It surely couldn't have been your first winter that you didn't see a single flake? There were many in the 90's!

There were many crap winters in the 90s and 2000s but from memory there was always something during winter, like a westerly or northerly which would leave the lightest dusting of dandruff at night or a band of rain, sleet and wet snow mix from the west with milder air taking over.

Let's get back to talking about the charts over the next few weeks. Latest GFS is largely unsettled with the zonal pattern well in control. A few cool days to start February with a brief north-westerly. Looks like high pressure will have a go from February 4th to February 6th. The Atlantic makes short work of this high pressure as low pressures take over, the high moves into central Europe and winter takes control for a few days over south-east Europe, Greece and Turkey. For us looks very unsettled and potentially stormy from the 7th of February as far as charts go on 15th of February.

typhoony

my take on it is that we will still see a decent cold spell at some point beteeen mid-feb and end of feb. There's just too much cold built up above the Arctic Circle which has to break out eventually, it would take a lengthy zonal spell to prevent it.

Meteorite58

ECM and GFS showing wintry weather around the weekend of 8,9 Feb. Cold air mass similar to what we had this week out of Canada / Greenland on W'ly/ NW'ly winds.

typhoony

both GFS and ECM want to relocate the Arctic to NE Canada and NE US.

someone one told me that we get their cold a week after they get theirs

Mortelaro

typhoony wrote: »

both GFS and ECM want to relocate the Arctic to NE Canada and NE US.

someone one told me that we get their cold a week after they get theirs

Well they were talking rubbish
We get their cold rain enhanced into storms alright as all that cold sir hits the warmer north atlantic

PukkaStukka

Mortelaro wrote: »

Well they were talking rubbish
We get their cold rain enhanced into storms alright as all that cold sir hits the warmer north atlantic

Yeah I think a cold plunge there fires up the jet and we get wet and windy storms, not cold

pad199207

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Yeah I think a cold plunge there fires up the jet and we get wet and windy storms, not cold

Yup indeed and as Syran said 2013/14 was a perfect example. Raging Jet sending storm after storm into NW Europe with frequent gales and incredible sea heights.

Meteorite58

pad199207 wrote: »

Yup indeed and as Syran said 2013/14 was a perfect example. Raging Jet sending storm after storm into NW Europe with frequent gales and incredible sea heights.

Speaking of which, next weekend models showing very windy if not stormy conditions and leading to possibly cold wintry conditions.

Gonzo

yeah usually when a cold plunge from Canada/US moves into the Atlantic it can fire up the jetstream if it's been idle or just keeps the jetstream firing if it's been active for some time. These systems then generally dump spells of wind and rain or cold rain to Ireland and are generally relatively mild systems, compared to anything from a northerly or easterly, due to the 1000s of miles of ocean it crosses.

Meteorite58

Some rough weather showing up on the models for around next weekend. GFS goes on to show a very turbulent week after that as mentioned by MT in his forecast. A wait and see job.

pauldry

Could be some more snow for us in the Northwest in some of that.

squarecircles

Rebelbrowser

11 and 12 Feb of interest on the gfs

sdanseo

Have we ever had a Blizzard/Emma type event off a westerly?

Rebelbrowser

sdanseo wrote: »

Have we ever had a Blizzard/Emma type event off a westerly?

Historically yes I think but not that I remember. I think the 1917 heavy late winter snow was off a westerly but someone else might know better.

Gonzo

sdanseo wrote: »

Have we ever had a Blizzard/Emma type event off a westerly?

I would almost class January 1982 as one of these, however we already had extreme cold bottled up from the east and a slow moving front in from the west and it resulted in the famous blizzard. Not sure if this would count.

In terms of a straight westerly or cold zonal westerly with no influence from the east or cold bottled in place, I'm not sure it's possible to get such an event in modern times, unless you live over 800 meters above sea level!

Donegal Storm

The March 2013 blizzard also came from an atlantic storm coming up against cold air already in place

Rebelbrowser

From an Irish Times article last year chronicling snow events...


"1917: The most severe snowfalls of this century and probably of the last two centuries occurred. On January 24th, large quantities of rain, sleet and snow accompanied the southeasterly gale in the south of Ireland.

At Ballinacurra near Cork the measurement (of snow when melted) on the 24th was 52mm and on the 25th, 19mm. At Seskin the total amount of snow on the 25th and 26th yielded, when melted, 47mm of water. On the 25th, the wind strengthened to a gale in the south of Ireland, when there were heavy falls of snow covering the ground to 30cm or more, with drifts of 300cm or more.

Over a large area of Ireland railway traffic was stopped owing to the heavy snow. During the period January 28th-February 3rd, the low maximum temperatures prevented the snow which had fallen during the preceding week from thawing to any considerable extent. Little fresh snow fell during the week. East Clare experienced a great snowstorm on April 1st. Snow on level ground lay to a depth of 46cm..."

ZX7R

Just doesn't seem right a story from 1917 using metric measurements

Rebelbrowser

ZX7R wrote: »

Just doesn't seem right a story from 1917 using metric measurements

It was written in 2018! See https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/snowstorms-through-the-centuries-a-history-of-irish-cold-snaps-1.3406525%3fmode=amp

ZX7R

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

It was written in 2018! See https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/snowstorms-through-the-centuries-a-history-of-irish-cold-snaps-1.3406525%3fmode=amp

Good read thanks

Meteorite58

ECM and GFS continues to show the jet firing up next week with sharp temperature gradients, sending in LP systems close to our shores giving windy spells of weather and alternating between milder frontal passages and colder air mass.

One spell of weather that is showing on a good few runs is heavy rain around next Sunday into Monday and windy followed by cooler air later Monday/ Tuesday giving possible wintry weather and accompanied by strong winds and another heavy spell of rain on Tues /Weds.

With an active Jet and fast moving systems, the timing will only become clearer nearer the time. This kind of set up can spin up small potent systems with short notice so might not be apparent at the moment. Can slip by us too without too much fuss, will see what unfolds.