FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Oneiric 3

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

nobody knows certainly not the models but the trend this evening is to downgrade it

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Everything upgraded again on the gfs 18z!!
Storm very much back on, severe with snowfall likely both before and after....
It's getting closer folks!

squarecircles

people over on the netweather forum are getting worried now.


That storm would bring devastation to southern England.

apparently the control run also goes with this storms level of intensity.

Snow Garden

nthclare wrote: »

Love rocky 4 when he arrives in Russia and the soundtracks really well done.
The scenery is amazing too, and the tension added to the atmosphere is surreal.

We could be in for a right pasting.
Thankfully my contract gives me snow days or bad weather days when there's an orange or red warning.

Im not going to be driving to East Clare from North Clare over 4 inches of snow and climb trees with a chainsaw hanging off me ��

Andrew00

Am I right in saying this could go on from Sunday morning until Wednesday?

pauldry

Its definitely going to be very windy and very wet next week

Almost certain to see 120kph a few times

Any upgrades and a rare red warning could be issued for a few places.

Snow probably in Ulster at times

Donegal Ken

squarecircles wrote: »

people over on the netweather forum are getting worried now.


That storm would bring devastation to southern England.

apparently the control run also goes with this storms level of intensity.

Long way of yet and to tell where or if it hits is impossible. Will be a lot swapping and changing before the weekend. Sunday is the main risk for now.

Oneiric 3

squarecircles wrote: »

people over on the netweather forum are getting worried now.


That storm would bring devastation to southern England.

apparently the control run also goes with this storms level of intensity.

More runs needed!

ZX7R

It will probably be gone in the morning

JanuarySnowstor

Well we might have lost Tuesdays storm this morning but the cold and snow has upgraded. Heavy prolonged snow now Monday afternoon with ecm and ukmo really upgrading the cold uppers! Time for its own thread?

typhoony

Ukmo the coldest of the models, gfs not as cold. Let's hope we don't get stuck with cold rain and temps just above 4c and raw wind. all the storms are gone even Sunday's looks weak enough

KingdomRushed

Yes I fear the event weather will be a blend of everything with nothing notable enough to be interesting. I don't see the upgraded uppers on ECM myself, it's Wednesday before it pulls sub (-6) in from northwest, wouldn't think it's necessarily a snowmaker. The GFS is showing countrywide snow on Monday but I don't think it even has a 2% conversion rate for snow charts to actual snow. 98% of time u will get rain. It pretty much shows snow all winter and I don't pay any heed to it.

Mortelaro

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well we might have lost Tuesdays storm this morning but the cold and snow has upgraded. Heavy prolonged snow now Monday afternoon with ecm and ukmo really upgrading the cold uppers! Time for its own thread?

Mt has the temp range 7 to 10c...

JanuarySnowstor

Mt needs to rewrite his morning forecast for next week. It's quite simply inaccurate!

Meteorite58

ECM 3C to 6C Mon and Tues, - 5 /-6C 850hPa temps, colder 850hPa temps later Tues, mildest along S coasts. Wintry showers, snow accumulations on higher ground. With strong winds in coastal counties, windy overland, biting windchill.

typhoony

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM 3C to 6C Mon and Tues, - 5 /-6C 850hPa temps, colder 850hPa temps later Tues, mildest along S coasts. Wintry showers, snow accumulations on higher ground. With strong winds in coastal counties, windy overland, biting windchill.

It's the type of weather that is very enjoyable for the first day and then after that you just wish spring would hurry up.

nthclare

Kermit. De. Frog hasn't had any input into the foreseeable weather forecast for next week and he's good at forecasting snow etc

So maybe it'll be a no shnow

typhoony

nthclare wrote: »

Kermit. De. Frog hasn't had any input into the foreseeable weather forecast for next week and he's good at forecasting snow etc

So maybe it'll be a no shnow

he's probably correct in waiting until the end of this week to make a call

Graces7

typhoony wrote: »

he's probably correct in waiting until the end of this week to make a call

Kermit is very busy on the coronavirus thread on Current Affairs...,

DOCARCH

Graces7 wrote: »

Kermit is very busy on the coronavirus thread on Current Affairs...,

:P

pad199207

Graces7 wrote: »

Kermit is very busy on the coronavirus thread on Current Affairs...,

Another Mad House

pauldry

My child asked me is it going to snow next week?

I said only one person knows that

She said who??? God!!

No I said Kermit the Frog

typhoony

Graces7 wrote: »

Kermit is very busy on the coronavirus thread on Current Affairs...,

He's in Quarantine for the next 10 days so there will be no updates

weisses

Mods .... could we have a chat thread for next week potential so this thread can be for the model discussion ??

pad199207

Storm Ciara has been named by the UK Met Office for Saturday Night into Sunday

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

Storm Ciara has been named by the UK Met Office for Saturday Night into Sunday

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1225003633575632898?s=21

One of my (near) namesakes in real life... expect fireworks! lol

typhoony

the chopping and changing from GFS is wildely random, the 06z shows a snow storm coming in from the West on Wednesday night, marginal temps for settling snow

Calibos

typhoony wrote: »

He's in Quarantine for the next 10 days so there will be no updates

I thought you meant the Man had gone Dark again and gotten himself banned for posts on another boards forum again.

Went to the thread on CA and breathed a sigh of relief when I saw that he's still alive and froggy legs kicking...and posting.....

I'd hate to lose one of our best Snow-Casters at this time of year because he can't keep his big wide froggy mouth shut and gets himself infected with a Coronavirus .....thread ban.

:D:D

Graces7

Calibos wrote: »

I thought you meant the Man had gone Dark again and gotten himself banned for posts on another boards forum again.

Went to the thread on CA and breathed a sigh of relief when I saw that he's still alive and froggy legs kicking...and posting.....

I'd hate to lose one of our best Snow-Casters at this time of year because he can't keep his big wide froggy mouth shut and gets himself infected with a Coronavirus .....thread ban.

:D:D

He will suddenly realise what is in the offing weatherwise ! He is having a ball over there!

KingdomRushed

I would suggest extreme caution on any forecast snow at this stage. I have been looking at the tabulated uppers temps on the GFS ensembles and they are borderline and slightly reducing as the potential windows for snow approach. A lot of -4 to -6, but few trending lower. It will be a mixed bag in my opinion. The best opportunity may be Monday evening in my opinion, but again it is knife edge.

typhoony

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I would suggest extreme caution on any forecast snow at this stage. I have been looking at the tabulated uppers temps on the GFS ensembles and they are borderline and slightly reducing as the potential windows for snow approach. A lot of -4 to -6, but few trending lower. It will be a mixed bag in my opinion. The best opportunity may be Monday evening in my opinion, but again it is knife edge.

true but the size of the Low to the south of Greenland and Iceland is something I haven't seen before so we don't know what level cold will be drawn towards us from the NW Atlantic, my hunch is that the uppers will trend downwards, negatively I mean, on the models as we get towards the end of the week. mid-feb is probably the optimum time to be getting a cold airflow.