FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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A bit off yet and looking very complex so very unreliable in terms of how this will look and what track and strength it will take but signs of a rapidly deepening area of LP sweeping close to or across Ireland next Sunday. Currently shows it to be very windy or stormy during the day for parts of the country, probably more so in the Western half .

On the current run showing pressure dropping 11 hPa in 6 hrs from 0.00 to 06.00 and dropping 15 hPa from 0.00 to 12.00. Strong Jet aiding the development.

All subject to change but one to watch.

nacho libre

Yes the jetstream profile i posted last week did indicate any settled spell would be shortlived, as the jestream is now in a position to send us a conveyor belt of low pressure systems by late next week. The deep low pressure system modelled for next weekend may likely track further north than currently depicted, so it maybe windy as opposed to stormy. Either way it will be unsettled.

Hopefully by the second week of December the jetstream decides to goes on holiday to Casablanca, and we get more cold and settled weather for a while.

pauldry

GFS shows colder pattern emerging around 10th December.

Probably not cold enough for all out snow but wintry showers aplenty.

Possibly too early to give the White Christmas I was pinning my hopes on as even one snow shower in that mix would count.

Gonzo

11th to 14th of December do look fairly chilly, probably a mix of cold rain, sleet and snow showers over high ground and areas well inland, mainly across the north. As usual this will probably get more downgraded as we get closer to the time. At least it's something to keep an eye on for the time being.

Meteorite58

Yeah the ECM, GFS and GEM all showing mainly cooler air mass again from Sunday for a number of days apart from a possible brief frontal passage around Monday .UKMO just goes to Sunday but looking cool then also.

Sunday not showing it as windy as yesterday mornings ECM run. More around the SW on the latest 12Z run but nothing out of the ordinary showing up for now. Would probably feel quite cool in a showery NW'ly wind.

As most of the weather out to +240 is sourced from the Atlantic , the long range rainfall accumulations are showing up mainly along Atlantic coastal counties.

Gonzo

Gav's latest Christmas forecast is an interesting one. Shows next weeks potential cold spell. He then goes into the Christmas to New Year period and it is showing severe if not brutal cold bringing a long fetch of winds in from the east as well as an Atlantic/easterly battleground. That is so far away it's not worth even getting excited about as it will probably be very different in reality, but it makes for fun viewing.

However, the models continue to show chances of developing proper cold at some stage. Hopefully we will get it at some point and not suffer the massive upsets of last winter.

Meteorite58

Models keeping the next coldspell going well into next week. Looks like having potential for wintry precipitation at times.

Oneiric 3

Temperature anomaly forecast from the latest GFS.



Long way off of course, but it does seem to be in keeping with the recent trend over the last couple of months for the eastern (or European) side of the Arctic to cool down relatively quickly and spill down over N/NW Europe. SST's up in that general region are still very warm though, but this recent pattern may have helped to cool then down a bit and maybe, just maybe, this will benefit us in the longer term and help bring us some of those 'northerlies of old' (as Nacho eloquently put recently) as the Winter wears on.

Villain

The trend is there for colder weather next week but the details are far from nailed, the latest 06z GFS will have the Southeast of England getting all sorts of excited for next week! Remember this is FI so it will change before then, just a question of what way it changes

Gonzo

latest gfs runs show a few more dryish days to go, followed by a brief spells of mild and cool interludes.The precipitation comes back from the 6th or 7th of December, but thankfully it doesn't look nearly as bad as the deluges of recent months. Temperatures also falling right back from the 9th to 14th of December. This could cause much of the precipitation to fall as sleet, hail or even wet snow at times. I think coastal areas will still be in for cold rain rather than anything wintry, also these charts could trend dryer as we get closer to the cold spell.



As said above they could be in for some real fun in many parts of England next week, particularly south-east England, but Ireland may not be spared of seeing a few flakes either. This chart is 10 days away so will change alot between now and then.



Milder air returns from the Atlantic around the 15th of December, however the jet stream looks to be staying to our south ever so slightly, leaving us on a cooler side. Could possibly be another attack from the north after this but the charts don't go that far.

squarecircles

squarecircles

Theres a great buzz over on the netweather forum this morning,would really put you in the festive spirit.

strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

i suppose at the end of the day will be watching on as they get buried
in it up to their knees over yonder and They stole all our potatoes.tut

waves stick in air* in begrudging pessimistic bitter irish way.

Kamili

squarecircles wrote: »

strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

I think most are expecting it to dissolve as it has in previous years...

SeaBreezes

squarecircles wrote: »

Theres a great buzz over on the netweather forum this morning,would really put you in the festive spirit.

strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

i suppose at the end of the day will be watching on as they get buried
in it up to their knees over yonder and They stole all our potatoes.tut

waves stick in air* in begrudging pessimistic bitter irish way.

Waiting until its 3 days to go... too many times it all disappears at 72 hours..

Gonzo

This is still too far away to pin down anything as of now. The only thing we are certain of is that it will be colder. I suspect as time gets closer this may evolve into a dryer scene with showers peppering the north and north-west and dying out as they move south-eastwards. Usual places could see some flakes from this scenario but I wouldn't expect much in eastern or southern areas.

For eastern areas we would really need a low sinking southwards driving in north-east winds as it does so, but even if that happened, we would most likely see cold rain or sleet within 40 miles of the Irish sea. The set up looks cold, but still not cold enough for any real snowy event.

Right now I don't think were there yet for anything too exciting, but will keep a close eye on how this evolves over the next week.

pauldry

The first pulse of cold has already got less cold....the 2nd one will follow and instead of 2 or 3c we will get 5 to 8c

Always happens.....except in 2010 and the beast.

squarecircles

and if it was a peppering of snow showers for the east coast somehow the tone and narrative would change completley.


otherwise throw a damp towel on the whole affair.


boards.ie weather forum in a nutshell.


gas place,must be one of the most myopic lop sided countires in western Europe.

MJohnston

Model/Technical Discussion Only...

SeaBreezes

That said those charts, while pure fantasy are lovely to look at!!

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/image.png.24d98c5d758ee7a3198717cdd2c74390.png
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/image.png.144aab77ba4049af15832c73f1355d60.png
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/image.png.0a43d34fe149e968e816859c559f0c7b.png

nacho libre

Will that monster low over North America lead to jubilation or heartbreak? If it is forced south eastwards, there is only one way the displaced high can go then.

nacho libre

Jestream off to Spain and Africa on its holidays is always good to see.

squarecircles

12z gfs continues the cold northerly plunge next week, must be 4 or 5 runs now with this consistent theme.

the monster blizzard in south east England is gone of course,as it was absurd.


in the final frames the -10 isotherm starts to flood across the uk from the east,


battling against a push from the atlantic.

nacho libre

So the ECM is more or less in agreement with the GFS tonight. The UKMO is not on board yet.

Meteorite58

The ECM 12Z back showing strong winds just outside of the +120hr time frame from Sunday afternoon/ evening into Monday morning with the strongest winds on the latest run occurring early Monday morning along the W / SW. Originally showed it very windy even stormy and moved away from that but has begun looking quite windy again. Unsettled few days coming up for early next week and keeping an eye on that sneaky Low showing up on Tues to see if anything comes of it, ECM showing it deepening but no doubt this will chop and change, the main thing is the potential for some unsettled /disturbed weather.

squarecircles

[IMG][/img]



The reality of the cold artic plunge next week now begining to filter into the BBC forecast outlook.

'' A plume of cold air pushes out of the Artic across our shores''
''Things turning very much wintery...an increased chance of severe frosts and snow showers''


https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/50652225

Kermit.de.frog

ICON is model of the day

pauldry

God that chart is little over a week away

We might even get a few hours snow in the morning out of that one.

Then hail wind sleet rain sun more sleet hail rain more wind repeat and very wet footpaths

fred funk }{

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ICON is model of the day

Looks great 🙂

Villain

The downgrades started overnight, you see you never back against the UKMO

Still could swing back and still looking cool but the "boom" charts aren't there this morning.

Mortelaro

Villain wrote: »

The downgrades started overnight, you see you never back against the UKMO

Still could swing back and still looking cool but the "boom" charts aren't there this morning.

To be honest most of the 'boom' charts were beyond the range of the UKMO,
I think trend might be your friend if its winter weather you want and the trend has not changed,Ergo,hold in that sneeze yet before we're bitten right back in the face?
Boom is some english phrase from prone to hope casting posters on netweather or Two anyway ,it jinx's everything, I hate it!

Hooter23

Its very common for the charts to show cold weather storms etc.... then drop the idea for a couple of days then for it to reappear again;)

pauldry

We always will get the moderated versions of every weather but if we dont hope theres no forum.

The 11th to 16th will be an interesting period if somewhat messy. At least itl be active and not dead mild moist n misty.

sryanbruen

Looks more of the same to me from what we had in November with largely unsettled weather that may become very wet at times but buckles in the jet stream so cold and wet again. NAO and AO look set to be positive which reinforce this theme. After this lovely opening to December, it can only go downhill I guess.

Villain

The downgrades have been flying in now. I never like a Northwesterly, for Eastern areas it is just a tease but we are only 4 days into Winter so plenty of FI rollercoasters ahead

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Looks more of the same to me from what we had in November with largely unsettled weather that may become very wet at times but buckles in the jet stream so cold and wet again. NAO and AO look set to be positive which reinforce this theme. After this lovely opening to December, it can only go downhill I guess.

Yesterday I looked at the gfs runs and the cool/cold spell was about 5 days and an unsettled look that wasn't overly wet. Back home this evening and the cool/cold spell is now only about 3 days and much more precipitation spikes compared to yesterday. We could be in for another deluge at some point before Christmas by the looks of it.

Chris_5339762

This happens every year, ridiculous charts showing -20 uppers all over Ireland with a great big easterly storm dumping ten meters of snow on Ireland with a return to the ice age and it always fades and people get really really mad and disappointed.

And thats half the fun of this yearly model watching!

Logan Roy

Gonzo wrote: »

Yesterday I looked at the gfs runs and the cool/cold spell was about 5 days and an unsettled look that wasn't overly wet. Back home this evening and the cool/cold spell is now only about 3 days and much more precipitation spikes compared to yesterday. We could be in for another deluge at some point before Christmas by the looks of it.

Ever the optimist

Gonzo

Logan Roy wrote: »

Ever the optimist

Just saying what the charts are showing over the next few weeks. As much as i'd love to post about crisp, sunny and frosty winter days or an incoming major snow event, I can't simply because neither are on the way to us over the next 7 to 14 days, unless things change suddenly.

Slashermcguirk

It does seem ominous when you look at Stockholm +5 degrees today, southern Poland around krakow nearly +10 degrees. Even Moscow is only hovering around 0. Seems to be very mild around Europe

rooney30

Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?

esposito

rooney30 wrote: »

Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?

It’s a very good question. I’m not the person to answer this tbh but I’ve often wondered the same.

It’s like the FI charts under estimate the power of the Atlantic/ jet stream far out. Then when it comes to 5-7 days out they seem to be able to pick up the jet stream/Atlantic signals.

MJohnston

It appears that people who built the GFS don't even quite know why that happens:
https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

pauldry

Thered be tumbleweed here if FI was boring

Mortelaro

rooney30 wrote: »

Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?

It's just simply that the further out these programmes go,the more spiralled the inaccuracies become resulting eventually sometimes in extreme scenarios
It's a finite science weather forecasting,mother nature is chaos theory personified, meaning once you go beyond the limits of the programme, you enter the realm of the atmosphere doing what it wants to do with its ingredients and obviously totally independent of any weather programme that cannot catch up

Stevieluvsye

Mortelaro wrote: »

It's just simply that the further out these programmes go,the more spiralled the inaccuracies become resulting eventually sometimes in extreme scenarios
It's a finite science weather forecasting,mother nature is chaos theory personified, meaning once you go beyond the limits of the programme, you enter the realm of the atmosphere doing what it wants to do with its ingredients and obviously totally independent of any weather programme that cannot catch up

But they are not anomalies when they become the norm. Their programme frequently predicts cold and is more often that not wrong.

Mortelaro

They're not really anomalies because they rarely pan out at that distance
Its just how they deal with chaos theory that far out
It was ever thus with them
(For as long as I've been following them anyhow)

Stevieluvsye

Mortelaro wrote: »

They're not really anomalies because they rarely pan out at that distance
Its just how they deal with chaos theory that far out
It was ever thus with them
(For as long as I've been following them anyhow)

Surely for credibility purposes then stop producing them?

Gonzo

If only we had charts like this in July and August, rather than the Christmas holidays.

Dickie10

so looks like lovely mild ,calm weather on stephens day?

Mortelaro

Dickie10 wrote: »

so looks like lovely mild ,calm weather on stephens day?

Nope
Charts that far ahead aren't worth the crayons they're drew with
Check back in about 7 days and a clearing picture might emerge

Meteorite58

Charts look quite unsettled on the weekend before Christmas with lots of LP's nearby. On the latest run ECM looking calmer around Christmas day and very cold as cold air mass descends down from the N. In general charts keeping on the cold side out to +240 .