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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-12-2019 12:41pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

    Thanks




    A bit off yet and looking very complex so very unreliable in terms of how this will look and what track and strength it will take but signs of a rapidly deepening area of LP sweeping close to or across Ireland next Sunday. Currently shows it to be very windy or stormy during the day for parts of the country, probably more so in the Western half .

    On the current run showing pressure dropping 11 hPa in 6 hrs from 0.00 to 06.00 and dropping 15 hPa from 0.00 to 12.00. Strong Jet aiding the development.

    All subject to change but one to watch.



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Yes the jetstream profile i posted last week did indicate any settled spell would be shortlived, as the jestream is now in a position to send us a conveyor belt of low pressure systems by late next week. The deep low pressure system modelled for next weekend may likely track further north than currently depicted, so it maybe windy as opposed to stormy. Either way it will be unsettled.

    Hopefully by the second week of December the jetstream decides to goes on holiday to Casablanca, and we get more cold and settled weather for a while.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    GFS shows colder pattern emerging around 10th December.

    Probably not cold enough for all out snow but wintry showers aplenty.

    Possibly too early to give the White Christmas I was pinning my hopes on as even one snow shower in that mix would count.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    11th to 14th of December do look fairly chilly, probably a mix of cold rain, sleet and snow showers over high ground and areas well inland, mainly across the north. As usual this will probably get more downgraded as we get closer to the time. At least it's something to keep an eye on for the time being.

    GFSOPEU12_216_1.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yeah the ECM, GFS and GEM all showing mainly cooler air mass again from Sunday for a number of days apart from a possible brief frontal passage around Monday .UKMO just goes to Sunday but looking cool then also.

    Sunday not showing it as windy as yesterday mornings ECM run. More around the SW on the latest 12Z run but nothing out of the ordinary showing up for now. Would probably feel quite cool in a showery NW'ly wind.

    As most of the weather out to +240 is sourced from the Atlantic , the long range rainfall accumulations are showing up mainly along Atlantic coastal counties.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gav's latest Christmas forecast is an interesting one. Shows next weeks potential cold spell. He then goes into the Christmas to New Year period and it is showing severe if not brutal cold bringing a long fetch of winds in from the east as well as an Atlantic/easterly battleground. That is so far away it's not worth even getting excited about as it will probably be very different in reality, but it makes for fun viewing.

    However, the models continue to show chances of developing proper cold at some stage. Hopefully we will get it at some point and not suffer the massive upsets of last winter.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models keeping the next coldspell going well into next week. Looks like having potential for wintry precipitation at times.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Temperature anomaly forecast from the latest GFS.

    0TWwQxi.gif

    Long way off of course, but it does seem to be in keeping with the recent trend over the last couple of months for the eastern (or European) side of the Arctic to cool down relatively quickly and spill down over N/NW Europe. SST's up in that general region are still very warm though, but this recent pattern may have helped to cool then down a bit and maybe, just maybe, this will benefit us in the longer term and help bring us some of those 'northerlies of old' (as Nacho eloquently put recently) as the Winter wears on.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    The trend is there for colder weather next week but the details are far from nailed, the latest 06z GFS will have the Southeast of England getting all sorts of excited for next week! Remember this is FI so it will change before then, just a question of what way it changes

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    latest gfs runs show a few more dryish days to go, followed by a brief spells of mild and cool interludes.The precipitation comes back from the 6th or 7th of December, but thankfully it doesn't look nearly as bad as the deluges of recent months. Temperatures also falling right back from the 9th to 14th of December. This could cause much of the precipitation to fall as sleet, hail or even wet snow at times. I think coastal areas will still be in for cold rain rather than anything wintry, also these charts could trend dryer as we get closer to the cold spell.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-12-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    As said above they could be in for some real fun in many parts of England next week, particularly south-east England, but Ireland may not be spared of seeing a few flakes either. This chart is 10 days away so will change alot between now and then.

    GFSOPEU06_252_1.png

    Milder air returns from the Atlantic around the 15th of December, however the jet stream looks to be staying to our south ever so slightly, leaving us on a cooler side. Could possibly be another attack from the north after this but the charts don't go that far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    Theres a great buzz over on the netweather forum this morning,would really put you in the festive spirit.

    strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

    i suppose at the end of the day will be watching on as they get buried
    in it up to their knees over yonder and They stole all our potatoes.tut

    waves stick in air* in begrudging pessimistic bitter irish way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭ Kamili


    strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

    I think most are expecting it to dissolve as it has in previous years...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,498 ✭✭✭ SeaBreezes


    Theres a great buzz over on the netweather forum this morning,would really put you in the festive spirit.

    strange the silence in here with the potential thats on view.

    i suppose at the end of the day will be watching on as they get buried
    in it up to their knees over yonder and They stole all our potatoes.tut

    waves stick in air* in begrudging pessimistic bitter irish way.

    Waiting until its 3 days to go... too many times it all disappears at 72 hours..


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    This is still too far away to pin down anything as of now. The only thing we are certain of is that it will be colder. I suspect as time gets closer this may evolve into a dryer scene with showers peppering the north and north-west and dying out as they move south-eastwards. Usual places could see some flakes from this scenario but I wouldn't expect much in eastern or southern areas.

    For eastern areas we would really need a low sinking southwards driving in north-east winds as it does so, but even if that happened, we would most likely see cold rain or sleet within 40 miles of the Irish sea. The set up looks cold, but still not cold enough for any real snowy event.

    Right now I don't think were there yet for anything too exciting, but will keep a close eye on how this evolves over the next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    The first pulse of cold has already got less cold....the 2nd one will follow and instead of 2 or 3c we will get 5 to 8c

    Always happens.....except in 2010 and the beast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    and if it was a peppering of snow showers for the east coast somehow the tone and narrative would change completley.


    otherwise throw a damp towel on the whole affair.


    boards.ie weather forum in a nutshell.


    gas place,must be one of the most myopic lop sided countires in western Europe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    Model/Technical Discussion Only...


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Will that monster low over North America lead to jubilation or heartbreak? If it is forced south eastwards, there is only one way the displaced high can go then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


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    Jestream off to Spain and Africa on its holidays is always good to see.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    12z gfs continues the cold northerly plunge next week, must be 4 or 5 runs now with this consistent theme.

    the monster blizzard in south east England is gone of course,as it was absurd.


    in the final frames the -10 isotherm starts to flood across the uk from the east,


    battling against a push from the atlantic.





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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    So the ECM is more or less in agreement with the GFS tonight. The UKMO is not on board yet.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The ECM 12Z back showing strong winds just outside of the +120hr time frame from Sunday afternoon/ evening into Monday morning with the strongest winds on the latest run occurring early Monday morning along the W / SW. Originally showed it very windy even stormy and moved away from that but has begun looking quite windy again. Unsettled few days coming up for early next week and keeping an eye on that sneaky Low showing up on Tues to see if anything comes of it, ECM showing it deepening but no doubt this will chop and change, the main thing is the potential for some unsettled /disturbed weather.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    [IMG][/img]Screenshot-21.png



    The reality of the cold artic plunge next week now begining to filter into the BBC forecast outlook.

    '' A plume of cold air pushes out of the Artic across our shores''
    ''Things turning very much wintery...an increased chance of severe frosts and snow showers''



    https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/50652225


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    ICON is model of the day

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    God that chart is little over a week away

    We might even get a few hours snow in the morning out of that one.

    Then hail wind sleet rain sun more sleet hail rain more wind repeat and very wet footpaths


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,841 ✭✭✭ fred funk }{


    ICON is model of the day

    icon-0-180.png?03-12

    Looks great 🙂


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    The downgrades started overnight, you see you never back against the UKMO :D

    Still could swing back and still looking cool but the "boom" charts aren't there this morning.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭ Mortelaro


    Villain wrote: »
    The downgrades started overnight, you see you never back against the UKMO :D

    Still could swing back and still looking cool but the "boom" charts aren't there this morning.

    To be honest most of the 'boom' charts were beyond the range of the UKMO,
    I think trend might be your friend if its winter weather you want and the trend has not changed,Ergo,hold in that sneeze yet before we're bitten right back in the face?
    Boom is some english phrase from prone to hope casting posters on netweather or Two anyway ,it jinx's everything, I hate it!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭ Hooter23


    Its very common for the charts to show cold weather storms etc.... then drop the idea for a couple of days then for it to reappear again;)


This discussion has been closed.
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