new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

givyjoe · 02-02-2020 01:26AM

wakka12 wrote: »

It's quite puzzling really, because if there are significant numbers of unreported cases outside Wuhan, in other Chinese cities, then the mortality rate of the virus is actually even lower than seasonal flu, maybe even significantly so. But how could a virus as harmless as that ever seriously sicken such a large number of people and cause this number of deaths in one area in just a few weeks? It is a very perplexing situation. I'm sure seasonal flu has never resulted in so many seriously ill people that the Wuhan health infrastructure is pushed to the point of collapse

Another complete guess, has it potentially already mutated into weaker strains? Wuhan getting the initial particularly virulent strain.

02-02-2020 01:28AM

I’ve been meaning to ask for days - what does R0 mean?

creditcarder · 02-02-2020 01:28AM

givyjoe wrote: »

Is that not just a case of them not having it quite as long. Slow death no?

Nah, seems to be pretty quick if it's going to do anything. Like 14 days or something.

creditcarder · 02-02-2020 01:29AM

givyjoe wrote: »

Another complete guess, has it potentially already mutated into weaker strains? Wuhan getting the initial particularly virulent strain.

God hope so...maybe as god knows what happens with these mutations.

cameramonkey · 02-02-2020 01:30AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Going by the average Ro of 2.2 for the virus it's highly probably at least 2 other people will have symptoms develop.

Those passengers should be quarantined until a diagnosis is confirmed.

They will not be able to tell until the infected person starts producing viral viral particles. Some people dont become symptomatic for 13 days.

givyjoe · 02-02-2020 01:30AM

creditcarder wrote: »

Nah, seems to be pretty quick if it's going to do anything. Like 14 days or something.

But sure most of the cases outside wuhan have only been reported this week. Still well within death zone!

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2020 01:30AM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’ve been meaning to ask for days - what does R0 mean?

It's the reproductive number of the virus.

Basically it's how many others every one person would be expected to infect on average.

It's 2.2 for this virus so every one person will infect on average just over two people.

cameramonkey · 02-02-2020 01:31AM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’ve been meaning to ask for days - what does R0 mean?

The figure would be the amount of people a person with the virus would infect.

Dante7 · 02-02-2020 01:35AM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’ve been meaning to ask for days - what does R0 mean?

It's the average amount of people that will be infected by a carrier during the lifetime of an outbreak.

Clarence Boddiker · 02-02-2020 01:36AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

It's criminal the millions and billions that will be spent on this virus yet it will kill a fraction of what hunger kills each day in the world. I feel the higher uppers fear they will catch it so give it an unlimited bankroll.

The higher ups fear it because there's almost nothing that can damage the unstoppable behemoth of Globalism..except this.

A pandemic is almost the only chink in the armour of Globalism/International Capitalism, because its precisely Globalism itself that can rapidly transmit the virus to all parts of the world. Any kind of long lasting travel/flight bans or restrictions and especially reductions in production, trade and consumption are a disaster for Global Capitalism. The very concept of open borders comes under severe pressure if a pandemic does occur.

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 01:45AM

creditcarder wrote: »

It is bizarre tbh. I guess it has a few options.

1) The flue is not really asymptomatic and just pushes people straigh to the hospital. As in, if you are not a carrier, then you are in trouble.

2) It's very contagious, even more than we think.

3) Wuhan is fudging the numbers for if international organisations come sniffing around after it calms down because they were ignoring it for a month (or more) As in, some of these people were actually admitted a while ago.

4) Everything out of china is bull**** :P

Yep could all be true.
Also important to note that its thought it takes up 14 days to die of the virus. The vast majority of cases have occurred within the last few days. Over 50% within the last 48 hours.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Among the oldest cases, in Wuhan, the death rate is 5.5%. In Hubei, its 1%. In regions outside Hubei where many of the newer cases occurred, its 0.3%. Outside China, 0%. But there have only been 130 cases. It's likely there is a lag in the death rate, as most cases outside Wuhan are only days old. Mortality is likely somewhere between 0.3% and 5.5%. 2% seems like a reasonable estimate as the pressure on Wuhan hospitals probably greatly increased the death rate

SeaBreezes · 02-02-2020 01:52AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Yep could all be true.
Also important to note that its thought it takes up 14 days to die of the virus. The vast majority of cases have occurred within the last few days
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

SARS mortality rate started at 2% it was only after the dust settled it was realised it was 10%, well, 20% in Canada and 6% in China.

Time will tell for corona virus. But I can't remember if China and Russia pulled out all the stops fir SARS as they are now.

creditcarder · 02-02-2020 01:56AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

SARS mortality rate started at 2% it was only after the dust settled it was realised it was 10%, well, 20% in Canada and 6% in China.

Time will tell for corona virus. But I can't remember if China and Russia pulled out all the stops fir SARS as they are now.

20 % for Canada :O That's weird.

Well, why wouldn't Russia pull out all the stops? The more China is isolated, the better for Russia :P

On another note, I wonder will China ever be able to get back from this? The Uighur fiasco (hmmmm, has anybody checked up on them for disease?), this and various other issues. Is it safe to say that Xi's china is forever tarnished?

NewMan1982 · 02-02-2020 01:58AM

14 days is the longest possible incubation period for the virus. It’s not how long it takes to kill/recover.

I’d imagine each recovery or kill time period is down to each individuals reaction to it.

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 02:01AM

NewMan1982 wrote: »

14 days is the longest possible incubation period for the virus. It’s not how long it takes to kill/recover.

I’d imagine each recovery or kill time period is down to each individuals reaction to it.

No, I was not confusing the number. They just both happen to be 14 days. But yes it is also highly influenced by the age and health of the individual.

'The China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.[6]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Granted it is a small sample and a median not average but still shows how far the death rate can lag behind new infection rate. Personally I think a lot more poeple will begin to die, in rates similar to in Wuhan, which will increase the apparent death rate, but then the numbers of unreported mild cases will start to emerge, and the mortality rate will go down a lot then again.

NewMan1982 · 02-02-2020 02:06AM

wakka12 wrote: »

No, I was not confusing the number. They just both happen to be 14 days. But yes it is also highly influenced by the age and health of the individual.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Granted it is a small sample and a median not average but still shows how far the death rate can lag behind new infection rate.

That’s fair enough. I thought you were confusing it but obviously not.

thomasj · 02-02-2020 02:47AM

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/coronavirus-dublin-airport-virus-china-21413022

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2020 02:56AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rSs4UkLcYs

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 03:01AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1223782872819142656
This sounds like a clickbaity rumour but they have been one of the main reliable news sources throughout the course of this so it is likely true. But anyway, apprently bodies are now being cremated in China. This really seems odd, to bring in such a drastic measure for what is not really a huge number of bodies, just 300, if that is true.

dragona · 02-02-2020 03:05AM

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/passenger-displaying-coronavirus-symptoms-taken-17674333

Let's hope not

givyjoe · 02-02-2020 03:05AM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1223782872819142656
This sounds like a clickbaity rumour but they have been one of the main reliable news sources throughout the course of this so it is likely true. But anyway, apprently bodies are now being cremated in China. This really seems odd, to bring in such a drastic measure for what is not really a huge number of bodies, just 300, if that is true.

Are bodies usually that dangerously contagious after death?

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2020 03:07AM

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 03:09AM

Thats very sad for the families. I cant imagine how much harder that must make the death, not even being able to have a proper goodbye or ceremony.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2020 03:24AM

https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1223621580451872768

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 03:31AM

There seriously must be something more to this going on , the full picture not being revealed to the world.
Nobody allowed to leave their home now in Wenzhou, a city of 9 million in a totally different province outside Hubei. Would they really do this for a virus with a mortality rate of 2%??
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1223791513152389120

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2020 03:33AM

My suspicion is it's an escaped biological weapon and the Chinese government panicked. This is why the response has been so quick and increasingly drecronian.

They know exactly what it is. "Bat soup" lol

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 03:49AM

First death outside China has occurred. A 44 year old man in the Philippines. He was the boyfriend of an infected woman who passed the virus to him. No info as yet but given his relatively young age he probably has some kind of existing health condition

givyjoe · 02-02-2020 04:01AM

wakka12 wrote: »

There seriously must be something more to this going on , the full picture not being revealed to the world.
Nobody allowed to leave their home now in Wenzhou, a city of 9 million in a totally different province outside Hubei. Would they really do this for a virus with a mortality rate of 2%??
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1223791513152389120

The thing is, theres a large amount of people who are critically ill with this, needing respiratory equipment to stay alive and recover. There isn't going to be enough of that to go around if too many folks get sick at once. So under control it may be 2%, out of control it may be much much higher.

Sean 18 · 02-02-2020 04:05AM

If this gets here and it's bad we haven't a hope the HSE can't manage the winter vomiting bug not Amind this

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2020 04:06AM

China is currently amputating the core of it's country, quarantining whole cities in the forlorn hope they can protect Shanghai and Beijing.

The world has not been told the truth as to the nature/scale of the problem and how it came in to being.

This is why China is, in effect, in the process of being sealed off from the world.

I feel something extremely serious has happened here.

Does anyone seriously believe this is mere coincidence and that it's actually people eating bats that are the source?

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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