General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 01:17AM

Godot. wrote: »

4-5 years is a long time. What if the public decide the Greens or Labour should be the left wing alternative in that period of time?

There is always risks whatever strategy you employ. Everybody will be Green in 4 yrs the way its going.

Brussels Sprout · 02-02-2020 01:20AM

Terrible poll for Sol/PBP. One would assume that their core support is migrating to SF as well based on those numbers

Leonard Hofstadter · 02-02-2020 01:23AM

Housing is easily the Government's biggest failing. I'm part of that generation and of course I don't want to spend the rest of my life renting. We can't be throwing good money after bad on renting - and it's not as if renting is cheap either. In fairness, housing was a big issue in 2016 but it feels like absolutely zero has been done in between.

I think it's sad that they're not going to get the credit they really do deserve on Brexit or the increased paternity leave, or the many other good things they've done over the past four years (and there were lots of good things despite what all the Shinnerbots will say).

Ironically, December just past had the biggest drop in homelessness on record so the next Government is going to get the credit for this as housing supply finally does improve.

beggars_bush · 02-02-2020 01:37AM

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Housing is easily the Government's biggest failing. I'm part of that generation and of course I don't want to spend the rest of my life renting. We can't be throwing good money after bad on renting - and it's not as if renting is cheap either. In fairness, housing was a big issue in 2016 but it feels like absolutely zero has been done in between.

I think it's sad that they're not going to get the credit they really do deserve on Brexit or the increased paternity leave, or the many other good things they've done over the past four years (and there were lots of good things despite what all the Shinnerbots will say).

Ironically, December just past had the biggest drop in homelessness on record so the next Government is going to get the credit for this as housing supply finally does improve.

Is homelessness that big of an issue for the general voter?
I doubt it
More the lack of affordable housing or supply of rental housing

McMurphy · 02-02-2020 01:37AM

M.M did seem fairly rattled by MLMD in the televised debates I've seen, which makes me wonder if the party's internal polling results mirror these ones?

endainoz · 02-02-2020 01:46AM

That pinch of salt might want to be taken a bit more seriously now, the young vote matters and will not be ignored.

People clearly want a change.

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 01:48AM

McMurphy wrote: »

M.M did seem fairly rattled by MLMD in the televised debates I've seen, which makes me wonder if the party's internal polling results mirror these ones?

[IMG]htt3ps://i.postimg.cc/PfV5jTHs/FB-IMG-1580603614030.jpg[/IMG]

Now he gets a free shot at her on RTE with no right of reply. I hope (I'd hope any party would) SF use that to it's maximum value.

jd1983 · 02-02-2020 01:53AM

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Housing is easily the Government's biggest failing. I'm part of that generation and of course I don't want to spend the rest of my life renting. We can't be throwing good money after bad on renting - and it's not as if renting is cheap either. In fairness, housing was a big issue in 2016 but it feels like absolutely zero has been done in between.

I think it's sad that they're not going to get the credit they really do deserve on Brexit or the increased paternity leave, or the many other good things they've done over the past four years (and there were lots of good things despite what all the Shinnerbots will say).

Ironically, December just past had the biggest drop in homelessness on record so the next Government is going to get the credit for this as housing supply finally does improve.

Increased paternity leave? That was a bill soc that the dem's introduced and fine gael tried to water it down.

It's simply delusional to think that fine gael deserve any credit for housing, unless off course you're a vulture fund.

Coillte_Bhoy · 02-02-2020 02:34AM

endainoz wrote: »

That pinch of salt might want to be taken a bit more seriously now, the young vote matters and will not be ignored.

People clearly want a change.

They dont really, going on these poll figures,

Rjd2 · 02-02-2020 04:39AM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Less likely to be FG after today’s social media debacle. Online anyway, so not necessarily game changing, their attempts have been horrific. A cheap copy of the Tories strategies, but all it seems to be doing is attract ridicule, and rightly so.

The Tories targeted voters who would be socially conservative and financially lefty and obviously they did a cracking job looking at the result in 2020. I suspect that is the kind of voter Leo and many of FG want nothing to do with.

And I doubt FG have someone as clever as Cummings behind the scenes.

Jizique · 02-02-2020 07:43AM

beggars_bush wrote: »

Is homelessness that big of an issue for the general voter?
I doubt it
More the lack of affordable housing or supply of rental housing

There will be plenty of empty office space that can be converted to housing after SF get a few of their policies implemented.
Housing will be the least of our worries on a few years at this rate

Wanderer78 · 02-02-2020 07:52AM

Jizique wrote:

There will be plenty of empty office space that can be converted to housing after SF get a few of their policies implemented. Housing will be the least of our worries on a few years at this rate

What if nobody truly knows what to do about housing and accommodation, what if none of their policies actually work, what do we do then?

LuasSimon · 02-02-2020 08:19AM

It seems like many in the country want change and that means Sinn Fein in government . Many in Fianna Fáil would have a coalition with in Sinn Fein despite Michael martins protestations.
The public are fed up of ff FG only politics and with so many of the youth wanting a change if FF don’t go into coalition SF will surge further in the subsequent election .

Wanderer78 · 02-02-2020 08:22AM

LuasSimon wrote:

It seems like many in the country want change and that means Sinn Fein in government . Many in Fianna FÃ¡il would have a coalition with in Sinn Fein despite Michael martins protestations. The public are fed up of ff FG only politics and with so many of the youth wanting a change if FF donâ€™t go into coalition SF will surge further in the subsequent election .

I'm not convinced of this sf surge, I'm not convinced it ll show on polling day, I'm expecting the same old story, I'm not convinced we truly want change yet, or are politically ready for it, of course I could be wrong also

ThunbergsAreGo · 02-02-2020 08:23AM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

But when those who need healthcare etc are thrown to the wolves to achieve this so-called sound economy is that ok?

Because that is what FG did.
Went for the low hanging fruit while protecting those who made the economy unsound in the first place.

That's not government - that's protecting the so-called to big to fall at the expense of the many.
And they are still doing it - €20m cuts to disability services proposed - €20m to the FAI also proposed. The people that need support can go whistle while John Delaney rides off into the sunset.

That's FG's sound economics.

Shane Ross is an independent, and an absolute clown.

average_runner · 02-02-2020 08:32AM

LuasSimon wrote: »

It seems like many in the country want change and that means Sinn Fein in government . Many in Fianna Fáil would have a coalition with in Sinn Fein despite Michael martins protestations.
The public are fed up of ff FG only politics and with so many of the youth wanting a change if FF don’t go into coalition SF will surge further in the subsequent election .

Saw that. Will change how I vote. Was going independent but dont want SF in power, so will give FG 1 and 2 or 2 and 3

hurler32 · 02-02-2020 08:35AM

average_runner wrote: »

Saw that. Will change how I vote. Was going independent but dont want SF in power, so will give FG 1 and 2 or 2 and 3

Fine Gael are only for the people of South Dublin and the privileged ie the rich .

Wanderer78 · 02-02-2020 08:35AM

Deleted User wrote:

Fine Gael have said on the past in their notices that they have had the responsibility of cleaning up mess made by Fianna fail. On inflation / health

How exactly were fg gonna solve things such as asset price inflation, since we re an open economy?

No political party is gonna be able to solve our most serious of issues, as our political institutions and systems have effectively been depowered by doing so, western democracy is in serious trouble

boggerman1 · 02-02-2020 08:40AM

Whatever the outcome this time next week I just hope someone in the department of finance has the aj chopra’s phone number on file

average_runner · 02-02-2020 08:40AM

hurler32 wrote: »

Fine Gael are only for the people of South Dublin and the privileged ie the rich .

You mean where the SF leader grew up and went to private school.

SF will be no different, making promises they won't keep

hurler32 · 02-02-2020 08:47AM

average_runner wrote: »

You mean where the SF leader grew up and went to private school.

SF will be no different, making promises they won't keep

Maybe she did but she’s not going to implement the policy for the super rich people in South Dublin that Fine Gael - RTÉ - Sunday independent have been implementing to the detriment of the rest of Ireland .
If you are rich I can see why one would vote for Fine Gael but for middle income or working class people Fine Gael are not interested . They detest rural Ireland Also so unless you live in Donnybrook , Dalkey or some other South Dublin moneyland voting Fine Gael is a waste of time .

Wanderer78 · 02-02-2020 08:50AM

hurler32 wrote:

Maybe she did but sheâ€™s not going to implement the policy for the super rich people in South Dublin that Fine Gael - RTÃ‰ - Sunday independent have been implementing to the detriment of the rest of Ireland . If you are rich I can see why one would vote for Fine Gael but for middle income or working class people Fine Gael are not interested . They detest rural Ireland Also so unless you live in Donnybrook , Dalkey or some other South Dublin moneyland voting Fine Gael is a waste of time .

Watch the rural middle class votes flood in!

Bishop of hope · 02-02-2020 08:59AM

MM wants to be Tsoiseach, he doesent want to be the first FF leader never to be Taoiseach, this election is possibly, and by the day looking more likely, his last throw of the dice.
It's looking like his main opposition is now SF, it could end up SF as the largest party.
How would coalition look then?
MLMD could end up being the leader of the largest party in the next Dail, wouldnt she have a good claim to be Taoiseach.
I'd expect some desperate concoction of FF/FG/Lab/Greens to be mooting about to try to prevent her being Taoiseach.
This has the makings of the most dramatic election in the history of the state and I'm waiting with baited breath to see what's cobbled together after that.

LuasSimon · 02-02-2020 08:59AM

Not sure where Sinn Fein are going to gain additional seats ?
If the poll figures come to pass it seems they didn’t stand enough candidates but there will be gains in Donegal , Cavan Monaghan . Where else ?

Rigor Mortis · 02-02-2020 09:02AM

its pretty much impossible that MLMD willl be leader of largest party in the Dail. She may win the popular vote, but they dont have enough candidates.

Jizique · 02-02-2020 09:03AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

MM wants to be Tsoiseach, he doesent want to be the first FF leader never to be Taoiseach, this election is possibly, and by the day looking more likely, his last throw of the dice.
It's looking like his main opposition is now SF, it could end up SF as the largest party.
How would coalition look then?
MLMD could end up being the leader of the largest party in the next Dail, wouldnt she have a good claim to be Taoiseach.
I'd expect some desperate concoction of FF/FG/Lab/Greens to be mooting about to try to prevent her being Taoiseach.
This has the makings of the most dramatic election in the history of the state and I'm waiting with baited breath to see what's cobbled together after that.

With only 42 candidates, SF very unlikely to be largest party.
How has this turned around since the EU and local elections 8 months ago?

maynooth_rules · 02-02-2020 09:13AM

It seems many of these sinn féin voters or possible voters are ignorant of the history of the party. Its a very short time ago when a Sinn Féin TD, who has just retired, collected garda murderers from prison and arranged a party for them. Many seem to forget Gerry Adams and his brothers crimes that were allowed to happen. I could stay going as well.
The army council control Sinn Féin. Vote for them and you are voting for thugs and people with blood on their hands from South Armagh etc. To have a role in our government. It will be a dark dark day if it happens
Fair enough if people want a shift to a left wing government, but a party with SFs history should not be that answer. Oh and look at their polices in government in Northern Ireland if you want a true look at them, not their pie in the sky manifesto.

Bishop of hope · 02-02-2020 09:27AM

Jizique wrote: »

With only 42 candidates, SF very unlikely to be largest party.
How has this turned around since the EU and local elections 8 months ago?

It's fanciful I know.
It's not how they turned it around really as it is how FG and FF have let it slip?
Brexit done now, and a ui looking more possible than ever.
Maybe there's more sentiment towards that than the big two thought.
The RIC commeration was a desperate faux pas by FG.
The state of the health service and housing and other things. The beef price thing.
Maybe a lot of people still are sore at FF for ten years ago and don't want to go down that road again?
Edit, and maybe FF should have shipped out MM and freshened themselves up, might have helped them.

SafeSurfer · 02-02-2020 09:35AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

MM wants to be Tsoiseach, he doesent want to be the first FF leader never to be Taoiseach, this election is possibly, and by the day looking more likely, his last throw of the dice.
It's looking like his main opposition is now SF, it could end up SF as the largest party.
How would coalition look then?
MLMD could end up being the leader of the largest party in the next Dail, wouldnt she have a good claim to be Taoiseach.
I'd expect some desperate concoction of FF/FG/Lab/Greens to be mooting about to try to prevent her being Taoiseach.
This has the makings of the most dramatic election in the history of the state and I'm waiting with baited breath to see what's cobbled together after that.

I don’t believe SF will be the largest party after the election. Or even the second largest to be honest.

SafeSurfer · 02-02-2020 09:40AM

maynooth_rules wrote: »

It seems many of these sinn féin voters or possible voters are ignorant of the history of the party. Its a very short time ago when a Sinn Féin TD, who has just retired, collected garda murderers from prison and arranged a party for them. Many seem to forget Gerry Adams and his brothers crimes that were allowed to happen. I could stay going as well.
The army council control Sinn Féin. Vote for them and you are voting for thugs and people with blood on their hands from South Armagh etc. To have a role in our government. It will be a dark dark day if it happens
Fair enough if people want a shift to a left wing government, but a party with SFs history should not be that answer. Oh and look at their polices in government in Northern Ireland if you want a true look at them, not their pie in the sky manifesto.

The thing is for a lot of younger voters the above is as ancient history as Collins’ “squad” or Dev talking about wading through the blood of Irishmen.

Home ownership and the prospect of home ownership is a stabilising force in society. Remove that and people have little to lose by voting for parties with radical, de stabilising policies.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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