General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

facehugger99 · 01-02-2020 06:12PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Ah stop making excuses.

FG had 76 seat. Labour had 37 seats.

The closest opposition were FF with 20 seats and were disgraced. They were silent.

The FG led government could have reformed major problems in this country and got a better deal on the private banking debt that was forced into our national debt.

But Enda had zero vision, zero courage and zero leadership.

Gilmore made himself rich but destroyed his own party by tagging it to the Irish Water shambles of corruption, waste and cronyism.

The fact is that FG have somehow made FF look professional and honest again. Hard to fathom that.

Wow - what a lot of bluster.

You could have just said you don't understand what the word 'majority' means.

charlie14 · 01-02-2020 06:12PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Just imagine the seat returns if Greens, Labour and Soc Dems agreed a transfer pact, and indeed if SF also recommended a left alliance.

I could see where perhaps it would make sense for Laour and Soc Dems to have such a pact, but including the Greens would be like attempting to square a circle that would not help the other two imo.

SF have softened their left leanings over the years and are chasing the more lucrative center left vote. An alliance with the more radical left would damage their appeal to that cohort of voters of center left voters.

Leonard Hofstadter · 01-02-2020 06:41PM

McMurphy wrote: »

Irish Times releases one at midnight..

Latest poll shows a further slide for FG and SF in second - 3% error of margin - Times/Panelbase - 13% undecided

FF 23
SF 21
FG 19
Green 10
Lab 5
SD 5
SPBP 5
Rest 12

That's not the Irish Times, that's the Times Ireland edition. Different company with as yet unproven methodology.

01-02-2020 07:09PM

CrankyHaus wrote: »

I think with this government, despite its undeniable achievements, the costly infrastructural failures in health, housing and transport are too great to break out the champagne.

Indeed, it would have been better if this Government continued to leave this country as an economic wasteland with the airports full of people leaving. That would have solved the overcrowding hospitals and housing for sure.

It's infuriating listening to how short people's memories are and not giving credit to the 180 degree transformation from just a few years ago.

Health and housing don't even affect the majority of the population but it's all everyone rabbits on about. A sound economy benefits everyone.

Most people own their homes or at very least stand to inherit some property.

Most people don't need to go near hospitals, or they have private health insurance or even found the public health system perfectly adequate.

endainoz · 01-02-2020 07:11PM

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

That's not the Irish Times, that's the Times Ireland edition. Different company with as yet unproven methodology.

Pretty sure they are referring one that's due out tonight at midnight?

KevRossi · 01-02-2020 07:23PM

Clear trend now for SF, they have the potential to hit 20% + easily. The polls back this up. They are also using social media, especially Twitter very well for soft, anecdotal campaigning. I've seen a fair few tweets popping up on my timeline which run,...'Candidate AN Other knocke on my doorstep last night, couldn't answer a question, so that's 5 votes in this house that we will now give to SF'.

The only issue they have is to get their vote out, and how successful they will be at that remains to be seen. I see them getting 17%, after that it will depend on their performance in each constituency, some of which is personality based.

I still feel it will be a FF-SF coalition, no matter what Micheal Martin says. He'll peddle it off as a decision of the members/Ard Comhairle or whatever. He will do anything to avoid being the first FF leader not to be Taoiseach.

FrancieBrady · 01-02-2020 07:44PM

salonfire wrote: »

Health and housing don't even affect the majority of the population but it's all everyone rabbits on about. A sound economy benefits everyone.

Except those in housing need and medical care apparently.

Sierra Oscar · 01-02-2020 08:04PM

Shades of 'Gilmore for Taoiseach' from some Sinn Féin activists in the last few days. I actually reckon these polls could do them more damage than good as people focus in on the prospect of Sinn Féin in Government and their likely policies. Wouldn't surprise me if they poll 15% on the day.

If Sinn Féin do manage to pull off 20%'ish on the day then they will have the problem of not fielding enough candidates in certain key areas. Tricky situation for them!

Bannasidhe · 01-02-2020 08:28PM

salonfire wrote: »

Health and housing don't even affect the majority of the population but it's all everyone rabbits on about. A sound economy benefits everyone.

Most people own their homes or at very least stand to inherit some property.

Most people don't need to go near hospitals, or they have private health insurance or even found the public health system perfectly adequate.

Ah, so governments are only there to look out for 'most' people and not all the people - particularly when 'most' people are all right Jack.

Well that's us who thought governments were there to legislate for the welfare of everyone - equally and without favour - told isn't it.

Leonard Hofstadter · 01-02-2020 08:28PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Shades of 'Gilmore for Taoiseach' from some Sinn Féin activists in the last few days. I actually reckon these polls could do them more damage than good as people focus in on the prospect of Sinn Féin in Government and their likely policies. Wouldn't surprise me if they poll 15% on the day.

If Sinn Féin do manage to pull off 20%'ish on the day then they will have the problem of not fielding enough candidates in certain key areas. Tricky situation for them!

You'd have to hope it will be a repeat of the Gilmore for Taoiseach thing and their vote will die down. Bad and all as FF are, they should be knighted and sainted behind this outfit. I wouldn't mind but it's not as if there isn't a load of left wing options for those who are so inclined, the Greens, Soc Dems, Labour all spring to mind, even PBP, Solidarity if you're that desperate.

01-02-2020 08:32PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Ah, so governments are only there to look out for 'most' people and not all the people - particularly when 'most' people are all right Jack.

Well that's us who thought governments were there to legislate for the welfare of everyone - equally and without favour - told isn't it.

That's the exact opposite of what I said. "Everyone" includes those who need healthcare and housing. Without a strong economy, there would be no money to spend on them.

An Ciarraioch · 01-02-2020 08:48PM

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1223689460128395265

Sir Oxman · 01-02-2020 08:57PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1223689460128395265

LOL.
love it.

Bannasidhe · 01-02-2020 08:58PM

salonfire wrote: »

That's the exact opposite of what I said. "Everyone" includes those who need healthcare and housing. Without a strong economy, there would be no money to spend on them.

But when those who need healthcare etc are thrown to the wolves to achieve this so-called sound economy is that ok?

Because that is what FG did.
Went for the low hanging fruit while protecting those who made the economy unsound in the first place.

That's not government - that's protecting the so-called to big to fall at the expense of the many.
And they are still doing it - €20m cuts to disability services proposed - €20m to the FAI also proposed. The people that need support can go whistle while John Delaney rides off into the sunset.

That's FG's sound economics.

golfball37 · 01-02-2020 09:14PM

Still think SF will be lucky to get 15% on actual day

votecounts · 01-02-2020 09:17PM

golfball37 wrote: »

Still think SF will be lucky to get 15% on actual day

Saying this myself constantly as they have history of dropping a good few percentage points on the day.

FrancieBrady · 01-02-2020 09:21PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1223689460128395265

Interesting dilemna for Martin (and Leo to an extent too).

Can they afford to attack SF any further. Drawing level with FF seems to indicate Martin's vociferous attacks are having a reverse effect.
Also: surely, if they want to be seen as balanced, RTE have to extend the numbers in the final debate?

C__MC · 01-02-2020 09:21PM

Will be a say day for this country when mm becomes taoiseach

is_that_so · 01-02-2020 09:41PM

votecounts wrote: »

Saying this myself constantly as they have history of dropping a good few percentage points on the day.

If they are on 24% it might be a point two higher but still probably finish midteens.

Advantage FF if those numbers work out next week but very hard to guess what will happen to the traditional seat bonus. It should favour FF but local battles may turn out some interesting outcomes!

christy c · 01-02-2020 09:42PM

Where is the Red C poll due to be published?

is_that_so · 01-02-2020 09:42PM

C__MC wrote: »

Will be a say day for this country when mm becomes taoiseach

Very very likely now.

silver2020 · 01-02-2020 10:07PM

C__MC wrote: »

Will be a say day for this country when mm becomes taoiseach

I agree - but SF won't be the leading party in a coalition

( I assume you mean Mary-lou Mcdonald)

McMurphy · 01-02-2020 10:10PM

silver2020 wrote: »

I agree - but SF won't be the leading party in a coalition

( I assume you mean Mary-lou Mcdonald)

Micheál Martin.

Itssoeasy · 01-02-2020 10:15PM

So is this latest red C poll have a -/+ 3 % margin of error on it as normal ? So 24,24,21 is really close then isn't it ?

An Ciarraioch · 01-02-2020 10:19PM

If it's correct - any physical Business Posts out yet?

McMurphy · 01-02-2020 10:20PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If it's correct - any physical Business Posts out yet?

Midnight.

Itssoeasy · 01-02-2020 10:21PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If it's correct - any physical Business Posts out yet?

If it's correct then jaysus help us. BUT the only poll that matters is next Saturday and everyone who can vote should vote.

golfball37 · 01-02-2020 10:21PM

If FG are in 3rd nationally it will yield a lot of final seats for FF when a FG candidate gets eliminated. They may as well go into coalition ffs, people aren’t fooled by any difference between them anymore

01-02-2020 10:23PM

golfball37 wrote: »

If FG are in 3rd nationally it will yield a lot of final seats for FF when a FG candidate gets eliminated. They may as well go into coalition ffs, people aren’t fooled by any difference between them anymore

Hardcore FG voters won’t give FF transfers.

Itssoeasy · 01-02-2020 10:24PM

golfball37 wrote: »

If FG are in 3rd nationally it will yield a lot of final seats for FF when a FG candidate gets eliminated. They may as well go into coalition ffs, people aren’t fooled by any difference between them anymore

I know people who are dyed in the wool members of both parties and yes they are of a certain era but they'd die before they'd go into government with the other. Now clearly that's not a feeling held by both parties as a whole but there is clearly a part of both who wouldn't have it.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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