General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 12:02AM

FF - 24 (-2)
SF - 24 (+3)
FG - 21(-2)
GP - 7 (-1)
Labour - 5 (+1)
SOC D - 3 (-)
INDS - 12 (-2)

Red C poll.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 12:08AM

The poll confirms the Sinn Fein surge.

Any chance of a FF surge hasn't happened. They have had a bad campaign but will probably end up as the largest party.

FG are just hopeless at winning elections, time and time again.

The Greens will be nervous about those figures.

LuasSimon · 02-02-2020 12:10AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

FF - 24 (-2)
SF - 24 (+3)
FG - 21(-2)
GP - 7 (-1)
Labour - 5 (+1)
SOC D - 3 (-)
INDS - 12 (-2)

Red C poll.

This is good news for FF as Sinn Fein don’t have enough candidates to benefit from this percentage and the surplus Sinn Fein votes are ten times more likely to go to FF than FG .

Rigor Mortis · 02-02-2020 12:16AM

LuasSimon wrote: »

This is good news for FF as Sinn Fein don’t have enough candidates to benefit from this percentage and the surplus Sinn Fein votes are ten times more likely to go to FF than FG .

Those votes are gonna go anywhere bar FF. Traditional SF voters despise Martin for his position on NI, young SF voters recognise FF as the party that opposed the 8th. For them, voting for FF is like voting for your really catholic aunt, whose also a bit crap at minding her money.

Brussels Sprout · 02-02-2020 12:17AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

The Greens will be nervous about those figures.

According to the break-down of last week's RedC poll SF are eating The Green's lunch with respect to the 18-35 demographic (35% vs 12%).

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 12:18AM

There's gonna be some dogfights down the pecking order for seats if this is what happens on polling day.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 12:20AM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

According to the break-down of last week's RedC poll SF are eating The Green's lunch with respect to the 18-35 demographic (35% vs 12%).

I think Eamon Ryan is having a terrible campaign. Very poor on the debates.

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2020 12:23AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

FF - 24 (-2)
SF - 24 (+3)
FG - 21(-2)
GP - 7 (-1)
Labour - 5 (+1)
SOC D - 3 (-)
INDS - 12 (-2)

Red C poll.

Wouldn't SF be (+5), they were 19% last week.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 12:24AM

My rough estimate based on those figures:

FF on 45 to 50 seats, FG on 35 to 40 seats and SF on 35 to 40 seats.

A FF/ FG coalition?

KevRossi · 02-02-2020 12:25AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Wouldn't SF be (+5), they were 19% last week.

It's based on the results in the previous Red C poll.

Brussels Sprout · 02-02-2020 12:26AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

I think Eamon Ryan is having a terrible campaign. Very poor on the debates.

Agreed and whatever happens his party are going to see a big increase on 2016 given that they're coming from such a low base of seats so I can't see him resigning as leader.

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 12:27AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

My rough estimate based on those figures:

FF on 45 to 50 seats, FG on 35 to 40 seats and SF on 35 to 40 seats.

A FF/ FG coalition?

SF might be more delighted with that outcome than some would think. Same gang in government and 4 years to get a countrywide challenge organised.

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2020 12:27AM

KevRossi wrote: »

It's based on the results in the previous Red C poll.

Thought that was last week?

Brussels Sprout · 02-02-2020 12:29AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

My rough estimate based on those figures:

FF on 45 to 50 seats, FG on 35 to 40 seats and SF on 35 to 40 seats.

A FF/ FG coalition?

Only alternative is a minority coalition with FG doing the FF-role from this past government. If they got 40 seats then 61 seats would be required for a majority so it'd need to be some combination of FF + Greens + Lab + SD + Independents (basically a house of cards)

tayto lover · 02-02-2020 12:31AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

I think Eamon Ryan is having a terrible campaign. Very poor on the debates.

People know that voting Green will cost them in taxes.

Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

Leonard Hofstadter · 02-02-2020 12:33AM

tayto lover wrote: »

People know that voting Green will cost them in taxes.

Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

That must be why they're voting for the Shinners in record numbers so

:rolleyes:?

This just confirms that the public have learned NOTHING from the crash and that we're no less gullible than our neighbours across the water, like free houses (nobody seriously believes the numbers the Shinners are promising, do they?) and the €22 billion when the Department of Finance says only €11 billion will be available and so on.

God help this country if this is the final result. I think I'd nearly emigrate again if we're going to have the Shinners in power.

Water John · 02-02-2020 12:34AM

SF would possibly be around 30 seats.
FF ++ a minority Govn't possibly. FG supporting confidence and supply.

Strazdas · 02-02-2020 12:36AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF might be more delighted with that outcome than some would think. Same gang in government and 4 years to get a countrywide challenge organised.

Yes, there's a theory they don't actually want to be in government this year and might even kibosh the opportunity if it arose.

Leonard Hofstadter · 02-02-2020 12:37AM

Water John wrote: »

SF would possibly be around 30 seats.
FF ++ a minority Govn't possibly. FG supporting confidence and supply.

It's either that or a FF/SF coalition really on the current numbers. Not sure which is worse! Putting the Shinners would be a disaster for the country in the short term but might be better in the long run because they'd finally have to take responsibility for all their bluff and bluster, and their bubble and appeal would be finally burst. It's clearly not in the country's interests to allow them anywhere near power but keeping them out this time is only sure to make them grow even more.

Water John · 02-02-2020 12:38AM

SF would love to be in Govn't on both sides of the border.

Godot. · 02-02-2020 12:45AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF might be more delighted with that outcome than some would think. Same gang in government and 4 years to get a countrywide challenge organised.

4-5 years is a long time. What if the public decide the Greens or Labour should be the left wing alternative in that period of time?

McMurphy · 02-02-2020 12:51AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

My rough estimate based on those figures:

FF on 45 to 50 seats, FG on 35 to 40 seats and SF on 35 to 40 seats.

A FF/ FG coalition?

Sinn Fein the main opposition party?

I think they'd be happy enough with that.

Long game seems no bother to them.

christy c · 02-02-2020 12:53AM

Is there any breakdown of what age group the SF increase is coming from? I wonder how much is to do with the pension BS.

It's a pity there was no semi sane party to capitalise during the last 10 years or so, but c'est la vie.

Good loser · 02-02-2020 12:57AM

I've been around a long time and imo Paschal Donohue is the best Minister for Finance we've ever had and the Coveney/McEntee duo did a superb job in Foreign Affairs.

Murphy and Harris did as good a job in their Ministries as their successors will.

golfball37 · 02-02-2020 12:59AM

Fg really threw away the chance in a lifetime they were given in 2011 for a swill in the trough. So sad for the country but heartening the new generation may hold FFG to account and perhaps their cronyism tendencies will dissipate as a result?

McMurphy · 02-02-2020 12:59AM

christy c wrote: »

Is there any breakdown of what age group the SF increase is coming from? I wonder how much is to do with the pension BS.

It's a pity there was no semi sane party to capitalise during the last 10 years or so, but c'est la vie.

The last data I seen said it was coming from the younger generation caught up with rental crises or unable to afford a home despite working full-time.

McMurphy · 02-02-2020 01:00AM

Good loser wrote: »

Murphy and Harris did as good a job in their Ministries as their successors will.

You have not set the bar very high at all.

Kh1993 · 02-02-2020 01:02AM

On them figures, part of me expects one of Martin or Varadkar to take the nuclear option this week and offer an outright coalition with SF to the country.

Less likely to be FG after today’s social media debacle. Online anyway, so not necessarily game changing, their attempts have been horrific. A cheap copy of the Tories strategies, but all it seems to be doing is attract ridicule, and rightly so.

McMurphy · 02-02-2020 01:08AM

Kh1993 wrote: »

On them figures, part of me expects one of Martin or Varadkar to take the nuclear option this week and offer an outright coalition with SF to the country.

Less likely to be FG after today’s social media debacle. Online anyway, so not necessarily game changing, their attempts have been horrific. A cheap copy of the Tories strategies, but all it seems to be doing is attract ridicule, and rightly so.

Yeah FG could write the book now on how not to run an election campaign, their operatives in the SCU got so, so many things badly wrong/judged it's not even funny.

Even a few hours ago on Facebook they had something up about the SCC and SF and 95% of the replies were negative towards them (FG) or piss takes.

They should change tact, and do it soon.

christy c · 02-02-2020 01:09AM

McMurphy wrote: »

The last data I seen said it was coming from the younger generation caught up with rental crises or unable to afford a home despite working full-time.

If that's accurate, it's somewhat understandable I suppose even if I don't agree.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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