new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Sierra Oscar · 30-01-2020 10:53PM

wakka12 wrote: »

link..?

Thousands of Irish people could become infected with coronavirus - expert warns

"We could do that if we needed to, we have the technical ability to respond to this if it becomes an issue of extensional survival of 20,000 people in Ireland potentially.

I think he is more so saying that we have the ability to respond to upwards of 20,000 deaths.

Duke of Url · 30-01-2020 10:56PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Thousands of Irish people could become infected with coronavirus - expert warns

I stopped reading after this

We're a very, very wealthy country. To put this in context the Chinese have just given €8 billion to build two big hospitals in Wuhan to deal with isolated cases - that's four children's hospitals they're proposing to build in two weeks and they probably will.

"We could do that if we needed to, we have the technical ability to respond to this if it becomes an issue of extensional survival of 20,000 people in Ireland potentially.

babybuilder · 30-01-2020 10:57PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Thousands of Irish people could become infected with coronavirus - expert warns

I think he is more so saying that we have the ability to respond to upwards of 20,000 deaths.

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/21702063

1hr 14 min in

s7ryf3925pivug · 30-01-2020 10:57PM

I wasn't worried until our leaders said how we're a wealthy country and have capacity to deal with 5k people needing oxygen to survive. Because our health service is a bit of a shambles without that load and our leaders are bull**** artists.

wylo · 30-01-2020 11:00PM

So its "an estimate" by an individual, not estimates, and hes not even estimating, hes hypothesizing, and finally, it was 20K infections not deaths.

saabsaab · 30-01-2020 11:00PM

Estimates high or low the sensible thing to do is stop flights from affected areas now. It won't affect our economy as much as a large scale outbreak here might. Acting now may slow its progress any amount of reaction if/when it comes here may not be enough.

Duke of Url · 30-01-2020 11:00PM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

I wasn't worried until our leaders said how we're a wealthy country and have capacity to deal with 5k people needing oxygen to survive. Because our health service is a bit of a shambles without that load and our leaders are bull**** artists.

And people here think the Chinese Gubberment are full of ****e..

Ireland: Hold my Corona!

4068ac1elhodqr · 30-01-2020 11:02PM

Over 20 countries now, which is a concern.

10 confirmed cases in Europe, 9 in N.America, 9 Australia
Over 8,200 confirmed cases, many more suspected cases.

hmmm · 30-01-2020 11:06PM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

I wasn't worried until our leaders said how we're a wealthy country and have capacity to deal with 5k people needing oxygen to survive. Because our health service is a bit of a shambles without that load and our leaders are bull**** artists.

Ireland could build a porta-cabin hospital like China is doing without a bother. We did something similar decades ago during TB when we had loads of improvised hospitals. Cancelling elective surgeries would free up a ton of beds if needed.

wakka12 · 30-01-2020 11:07PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Estimates are never literally impossible.

It's impossible to estimate with any degree of accuracy before there has even been one confirmed case in Ireland. If his estimate turns out to be correct, it is complete chance.

thecretinhop · 30-01-2020 11:08PM

imo China CcP are spoofers. They lie cover up,jail journalists, hide.. untill the virus showed up in the west we would not know.
china is a totalitarian dictatorship, de poor ould muslims are being educated yeah lol.
this means its top down, the lads in wuchan will lie falsify figures to save their neck/face, when the sht hits fan central gov throws them under bus.
at best atm the gov is utterly incompetent, at worse know how bad it is covering it up...
finally, China might want to keep figures down to keep lid on panic, yet west has no clue of exact demographic figures...
for example: 8000 cases 1000 very serious ill (start praying)
but if hundreds of thousands infected much much less.
i would not trust these guys with anything, they are thr same type dna that let lethal radiation fall over Europe for days....

whatever99 · 30-01-2020 11:10PM

wylo wrote: »

So its "an estimate" by an individual, not estimates, and hes not even estimating, hes hypothesizing, and finally, it was 20K infections not deaths.

What he said was, at an infection rate of 20% of the population, worst case scenario is 2M infected, which is 20% of the Irish population (his figures, not mine). Then with a 2% death rate, that’d be 20,000 deaths out of 2M infected. He was just describing a worst case scenario. I thought it was a bit much to be saying it though, it’s just gonna cause, perhaps unnecessary, panicking.

wakka12 · 30-01-2020 11:12PM

The most cases outside China occurred today. With 26 since this morning, about 20% of the total cases so far

wakka12 · 30-01-2020 11:13PM

whatever99 wrote: »

What he said was, at an infection rate of 20% of the population, worst case scenario is 2M infected, which is 20% of the Irish population (his figures, not mine). Then with a 2% death rate, that’d be 20,000 deaths out of 2M infected. He was just describing a worst case scenario. I thought it was a bit much to be saying it though, it’s just gonna cause, perhaps unnecessary, panicking.

2 million infections would just not happen in Ireland with such a low population density. I'd imagine 80-90% of infections would be in Dublin Cork and Limerick

Swine flu infected 20% of the worlds population. With a similar infectiousness this will probably be similar, in Ireland with good health care and low population density it will probably infect considerably less than 20% of the population and the death rate will probably be quite a bit lower than in China too because of the hospital care and also the good air quality. Maybe 10% of pop infected, 1% death rate..? = around 4k-5k fatalities

saabsaab · 30-01-2020 11:14PM

wakka12 wrote: »

2 million infections would just not happen in Ireland with such a low population density. I'd imagine 80-90% of infections would be in Dublin Cork and Limerick

Yes mainly the cities. I don't see panic being caused by the statements made. No need if we act in time.

thecretinhop · 30-01-2020 11:15PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Yes mainly the cities. I don't see panic being caused by the statements made. No need if we act in time.

that's a big IF

beejee · 30-01-2020 11:16PM

So when is that great wall going to be finished?

How many new diseases need to emerge out of the same country before you recognise it's a knacker hole?

Duke of Url · 30-01-2020 11:18PM

whatever99 wrote: »

What he said was, at an infection rate of 20% of the population, worst case scenario is 2M infected, which is 20% of the Irish population (his figures, not mine). Then with a 2% death rate, that’d be 20,000 deaths out of 2M infected. He was just describing a worst case scenario. I thought it was a bit much to be saying it though, it’s just gonna cause, perhaps unnecessary, panicking.

You mean 1,000,000 infected

saabsaab · 30-01-2020 11:19PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

that's a big IF

Sadly true!

PhantomHat · 30-01-2020 11:21PM

It will be quite some time before we know the full extent of the outbreak in China. This is very much due to their opaque communist regime. It's a very proud nation and this has up to recently very much limited their reaction and disclosure.
Also I'm not sure how we can contain this considering it has a possible 14 day infective incubation period. It is going to be extremely difficult to detect in the early stages of infection without direct medical testing.
Time will tell. Unfortunately it seems we don't have a whole lot of it in light of the diseases exponential infection rates.

fritzelly · 30-01-2020 11:24PM

whatever99 wrote: »

What he said was, at an infection rate of 20% of the population, worst case scenario is 2M infected, which is 20% of the Irish population (his figures, not mine). Then with a 2% death rate, that’d be 20,000 deaths out of 2M infected. He was just describing a worst case scenario. I thought it was a bit much to be saying it though, it’s just gonna cause, perhaps unnecessary, panicking.

Theres 10 million people in ireland? :cool:

wakka12 · 30-01-2020 11:24PM

1220 new cases confirmed in Wuhan between 00:00 and 24:00 30/1. http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/tzgg/202001/t20200131_2016681.shtml
Approaching 10,000 mark worldwide now

whatever99 · 30-01-2020 11:27PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

You mean 1,000,000 infected

He definitely said 20% of the population infected anyway, with 2% of the infected dying, resulting in 20,000. Whether those figures are right or wrong, that’s what he said. I heard him on the radio a few hours ago. I just looked up the population, says it’s 4M.
Either way....if/when it comes to Ireland, and if it’s in any way bad or spreading quickly, I would have very little faith in the ability of the HSE to be able to deal with it effectively!

AngryHippie · 30-01-2020 11:27PM

I'm no epidemiologist, but I know scare tactics when I see them.

That said, I'm off kung po chicken for a few weeks at least

Seriously though, banging on about 2m infected in Ireland and 20k deaths is pretty damned irresponsible for a health professional to throw into the public domain.

perrito caliente · 30-01-2020 11:32PM

This is basically the flu right?

4068ac1elhodqr · 30-01-2020 11:32PM

perrito caliente wrote: »

This is basically the flu right?

yes, but no.

wakka12 · 30-01-2020 11:33PM

perrito caliente wrote: »

This is basically the flu right?

No, considerably higher morbidity and mortality rates and also more infectious. Also no vaccine and can be spread during incubation phase. Its also not an influenza.

saabsaab · 30-01-2020 11:36PM

perrito caliente wrote: »

This is basically the flu right?

No. A Corona Novovirus.

mad m · 30-01-2020 11:37PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Approaching 10,000 mark worldwide now

I’d say multiply that by 10

4068ac1elhodqr · 30-01-2020 11:38PM

It's also subject to possible mutation, being a random 'novel' thingymajig.

The whitecoats say they're working on a vax, and it'll be ready soon (weeks or month or two).
However... the final release human trials certificaiton part wouldn't be an overnight thing, rather 3/6/12mths.

Of course, maybe Gates & Co will let people get a jab if they 'sign an aul wavier' (against medical negligence whotnots).

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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