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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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Comments

  • #1262
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    When you talk of the duty of the national broadcaster doEs that include a duty to people from all parts of the island or does the national duty stop at the border?

    You can't see the forest for all the strawmen in the thread of late.


  • #1263
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    When you talk of the duty of the national broadcaster doEs that include a duty to people from all parts of the island or does the national duty stop at the border?

    In an all-ireland Dail the DUP would get about 17 seats out of 220. SF might be twice that size.

    So Arlene would be leader of maybe the 4th biggest party after FF, FG and SF.

    A Labour/SDLP merge might be about the same size.


  • #1264
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    If one looks at the increase in SF support it comes mainly from women and younger voters 18 to 34. The increase in SF support among these 2 groups is matched by a corresponding decrease in support for independents. Come Election Day I would predict an increase in support for independents among these 2 groups and a corresponding decrease in support for SF.

    I think there may be more to it than just movement from the Independents. I saw a guy from RedC commenting yesterday that they have seen a movement of voters from
    FG -> Greens and then another movement of voters from Greens -> SF. So while we see The Greens support increasing it's not as much as it could be because they themselves are losing some younger voters to SF

    In the 18-35 category SF are on 35% in the latest RedC poll whereas the Greens are only on 12%. For this age category it seems that the housing & rental crisis trumps climate as their most pressing concern and they like what they hear from Eoin O' Broin. Mary Lou McDonald gained a lot of credit with younger women as the only party leader to have her face on posters calling for a Yes in the Repeal the 8th Referendum. A lot of this generation are born after, or have no memory of, the Good Friday agreement so for them anything before that is ancient history. The elected candidates themselves are also reflecting this change. With the retirements of Martin Ferris, Gerry Adams and Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin the only likely TD left from the days of The Troubles will be Dessie Ellis (and he may not even be elected). For younger voters trying to link the likes of Mary Lou and Pierce Doherty to the IRA is about as relevant as trying to link Leo Varadkar and Simon Harris to the Blueshirts.

    In the past SF gained much of their support from lower socio-economic groups, who in turn often were under-represented when it came to actual voters. It seems now that SF are adding another group who are also known for not turning out to vote in large numbers. Last time out SF under-performed their polls by about 5%. It’ll be very interesting to see how they get on this time.


  • #1265
    jem
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,055 ✭✭✭jem


    Zero chance of SF TD in Tipp I would say.only 1 councillor .


  • #1266
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    Mary Lou McDonald gained a lot of credit with younger women as the only party leader to have her face on posters calling for a Yes in the Repeal the 8th Referendum.

    Jeez, you'd want to be VERY young to think that was a plus point.


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  • #1267
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,831 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Some poster said it's early days in the election. Not so, only 8% undecided. Unless someone drops a ball, the trend is set. It is mostly down to turnout now.

    Housing and runaway rents have come out to bite FG in the ass. Who has solutions to it is for debate. It seems to be the prime mover over environment. It is an immediate economic issue trumping the hope value of environment.


  • #1268
    SafeSurfer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,147 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    I think there may be more to it than just movement from the Independents. I saw a guy from RedC commenting yesterday that they have seen a movement of voters from
    FG -> Greens and then another movement of voters from Greens -> SF. So while we see The Greens support increasing it's not as much as it could be because they themselves are losing some younger voters to SF

    In the 18-35 category SF are on 35% in the latest RedC poll whereas the Greens are only on 12%. For this age category it seems that the housing & rental crisis trumps climate as their most pressing concern and they like what they hear from Eoin O' Broin. Mary Lou McDonald gained a lot of credit with younger women as the only party leader to have her face on posters calling for a Yes in the Repeal the 8th Referendum. A lot of this generation are born after, or have no memory of, the Good Friday agreement so for them anything before that is ancient history. The elected candidates themselves are also reflecting this change. With the retirements of Martin Ferris, Gerry Adams and Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin the only likely TD left from the days of The Troubles will be Dessie Ellis (and he may not even be elected). For younger voters trying to link the likes of Mary Lou and Pierce Doherty to the IRA is about as relevant as trying to link Leo Varadkar and Simon Harris to the Blueshirts.

    In the past SF gained much of their support from lower socio-economic groups, who in turn often were under-represented when it came to actual voters. It seems now that SF are adding another group who are also known for not turning out to vote in large numbers. Last time out SF under-performed their polls by about 5%. It’ll be very interesting to see how they get on this time.

    All very incisive analysis apart from the comparison with the IRA and the Blueshirts. Fine Gael ministers do not have to contact unelected remnants of the Blueshirt movement before making decisions. This can’t be said of Sinn Fein ministers and the remnants of the IRA.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • #1269
    Phoebas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    Water John wrote: »
    Some poster said it's early days in the election. Not so, only 8% undecided. Unless someone drops a ball, the trend is set. It is mostly down to turnout now.

    IIRC, only the RedC poll was showing only 8pct undecided. The others were much higher and more in line with what we usually see.

    There is a clear trend in the polls, but a fair way to go still.


  • #1270
    Dubh Geannain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,647 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    In the 18-35 category SF are on 35% in the latest RedC poll whereas the Greens are only on 12%.

    In the past SF gained much of their support from lower socio-economic groups, who in turn often were under-represented when it came to actual voters. It seems now that SF are adding another group who are also known for not turning out to vote in large numbers. Last time out SF under-performed their polls by about 5%. It’ll be very interesting to see how they get on this time.

    I expect SF to perform lower than polling suggests but will beat that 5% based on the fact the election is on a Saturday.

    On the Arlene Foster Late Late thing, I feel the stars have aligned to allow RTE bring her on, coinciding with Brexit but Tubs will be wetting himself to give her rope to try and hang SF. I'm not a fan of Michelle O'Neill but Arlene doesn't represent the will of majority of the people of NI with respect to Brexit so it's a little cynical to have her on to speak on behalf of the northern community on the night. They should at least have a UUP, SDLP, Alliance or SF personality on also if that is the reason they are giving for having her on.


  • #1271
    golfball37
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,030 ✭✭✭golfball37


    Crime and the leniant judges are my no1 issue, followed by Insurance costs.


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  • #1272
    Dubh Geannain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,647 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    All very incisive analysis apart from the comparison with the IRA and the Blueshirts. Fine Gael ministers do not have to contact unelected remnants of the Blueshirt movement before making decisions. This can’t be said of Sinn Fein ministers and the remnants of the IRA.

    Don't underestimate the power of lobby groups and "supporters" of all political parties.

    I should add. I'm not happy with the wheels of power in any of the 3 mains political parties.


  • #1273
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,862 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    1 absolutely atrocious "TD" in the form on Kathleen Funchion in Carlow Kilkenny. Really one of the poorest, dimmest performers I've seen in the Dail ever. Absolutely nothing going on upstairs.
    They also lost all their Co Councillors here (which was a very good thing) and a clear reflection of both her breathtaking inabilities and their own. If anyone thinks these bunch are going "to solve housing" or anything else for that matter they are very very sadly mistaken.


  • #1274
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,831 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The polls are over time with Red C being the latest. Thus undecideds are high at the start of a campaign and fall. Sometimes this fall is quite late, even the last few days, esp among women.
    This fall has already happened largely. Little can be done to shift it now, except a major booboo.


  • #1275
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,573 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    When you talk of the duty of the national broadcaster doEs that include a duty to people from all parts of the island or does the national duty stop at the border?

    The government see a duty to all those identifying as Irish on the island and RTE is an arm/adjunct of government. So yes, the National Broadcaster should have a duty to all. What difference that makes I don't know.


  • #1276
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    So yes, the National Broadcaster should have a duty to all. What difference that makes I don't know.

    Arlene is the leader of the 4th most popular political party in Ireland.


  • #1277
    Big Ears
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,036 ✭✭✭Big Ears


    In terms of undecideds it's probably worth reminding people that considering we use a single transferable vote system, undecideds will be underreported to some extent.

    People might be sure of who thy want to give their 1st choice to, or who they absolutely don't want to give their vote to. But many 2nd, 3rd and 4th preferences aren't decided sometimes as late until people see the ballot paper.


  • #1278
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,573 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Arlene is the leader of the 4th most popular political party in Ireland.

    Yes, and negating the fact that she could have an impact on an election here is wrong.

    I would have that view whether she had the potential to hurt FG, FF the Greens etc.


  • #1279
    SafeSurfer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,147 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    The government see a duty to all those identifying as Irish on the island and RTE is an arm/adjunct of government. So yes, the National Broadcaster should have a duty to all. What difference that makes I don't know.

    Actually Francie there is no mention of “those identifying as Irish”. A phrase you use to exclude. RTE only mentions its responsibility to “all the people of Ireland”.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • #1280
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Any polls out this week? Or do we have to wait till the weekend?


  • #1281
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,573 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    Actually Francie there is no mention of “those identifying as Irish”. A phrase you use to exclude. RTE only mentions its responsibility to “all the people of Ireland”.
    franciebrady wrote:
    So yes, the National Broadcaster should have a duty to all.


    Is a point to this going to emerge?


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  • #1282
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    Actually Francie there is no mention of “those identifying as Irish”. A phrase you use to exclude. RTE only mentions its responsibility to “all the people of Ireland”.

    An interesting debate in and of itself - for one, does Francie's definition include immigrants, for example, while "all the people of Ireland" is all-encompassing in terms of all residents.


  • #1283
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Could Barnier's visit to Dublin be considered as partial, given he is a member of the EPP?

    https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1221769360538316800


  • #1284
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Phoebas wrote: »
    IIRC, only the RedC poll was showing only 8pct undecided. The others were much higher and more in line with what we usually see.

    There is a clear trend in the polls, but a fair way to go still.
    There's also a way to go in many voters' thought processes. A lot will still not have fully engaged with the idea of an election and will really only pay attention in that last week.


  • #1285
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    I for one, am damn glad they did. Sometimes I think you guys and gals hanker after conflict/war.

    As i said earlier, this woman is as likely to be critical of FG as she is of SF. She has called this state 'belligerent' as recently as this year.
    The middle of an election campaign is totally the wrong time to be giving somebody like that a platform if your duty as a national broadcaster is to be 'balanced'.

    Very simple issue, no matter what party you are supporting/a member of.

    I haven't seen such a partitionist mentality on here in a long time. Are you saying that nobody has the right from the North to partake in our election, or have a view on our election?


  • #1286
    zell12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,280 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Any polls out this week? Or do we have to wait till the weekend?
    TG4 have one tomorrow in the GaillimhThiar constituency, live at 19:00
    They already did Donegal


  • #1287
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,573 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I haven't seen such a partitionist mentality on here in a long time. Are you saying that nobody has the right from the North to partake in our election, or have a view on our election?

    Where did I say anything remotely like that?

    If RTE are covering/commenting on the election or parties taking part, then they have a duty to be balanced and fair.


  • #1288
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Could Barnier's visit to Dublin be considered as partial, given he is a member of the EPP?

    https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1221769360538316800


    Point completely missed. Sigh.


  • #1289
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Phoebas wrote: »
    This is nonsense.

    By that measure they would be suppressing reports of overspend at the Children's hospital or homeless figures until after the election.

    Are the people of Ireland not to be trusted with the truth?


    No, no that is not equivalent at all.:confused:


    Anyway, let's see what happens on Friday.


  • #1290
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    Point completely missed. Sigh.

    He has been steadfast throughout, but the other parties could question the timing.


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  • #1291
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    zell12 wrote: »
    TG4 have one tomorrow in the GaillimhThiar constituency, live at 19:00
    They already did Donegal

    They'll also have Kerry on Thursday.


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