Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

Bass Reeves · 30-10-2019 12:56pm #1

Should SF step back from this ekwction. As there MP will not take there seats and use there votes in Westminster should they give the SDLP and the Alliance party a clear run. These votes could be crucial in the next Parliament and could swing many votes on Brexit. These seats could be a counter balance to the DUP.

In the interest of NI and the Irish people in general should the SF stand aside

markodaly · 30-10-2019 1:14pm

In my opinion, yes.

A vote for SF in Westminister Elections is utterly pointless.
Vote for the Alliance or the SDLP by all means.

liamtech · 30-10-2019 1:19pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Should SF step back from this ekwction. As there MP will not take there seats and use there votes in Westminster should they give the SDLP and the Alliance party a clear run. These votes could be crucial in the next Parliament and could swing many votes on Brexit. These seats could be a counter balance to the DUP.

In the interest of NI and the Irish people in general should the SF stand aside

Should they? Yes absolutely

Will they? More chance of finding Jimmy Hofa under my sofa (just checked he aint there)

No SF took a hammering in the Euro and local elections in ireland - at a time when an irish GE will occur within 6-8 months time, they need a win, and will run for as many Abstention seats as possible. They know ireland will be observing the UK election with interest, and they will want to demonstrate that they are still a force to be reckoned with

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 1:30pm

Special status for northern Ireland was a SF idea, initially rejected by FG.

They have played a blinder on Brexit in many ways, culminating in an Irish minister appearing on a BBC NI debate last night, standing side by side with SF and the Alliance and the SDLP lambasting the DUP.

Standing aside and allowing the Dublin to be seen as the protectors of the Irish identity in NI and moderate unionism will come to be seen as a masterstroke imo.

The UI project can no longer be seen as a meddlesome, badly timed SF idea, it is now mainstream.

SF will not, I would imagine, even contemplate taking their seats. Factions in NI are doing what the Tories are doing for Scottish independence ATM.

SF's attitude will be, let them at it.

collywobble7 · 30-10-2019 1:43pm

Yes

Bass Reeves · 30-10-2019 1:45pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Special status for northern Ireland was a SF idea, initially rejected by FG.

They have played a blinder on Brexit in many ways, culminating in an Irish minister appearing on a BBC NI debate last night, standing side by side with SF and the Alliance and the SDLP lambasting the DUP.

Standing aside and allowing the Dublin to be seen as the protectors of the Irish identity in NI and moderate unionism will come to be seen as a masterstroke imo.

The UI project can no longer be seen as a meddlesome, badly timed SF idea, it is now mainstream.

SF will not, I would imagine, even contemplate taking their seats. Factions in NI are doing what the Tories are doing for Scottish independence ATM.

SF's attitude will be, let them at it.

As SF will not take there seats would it not be a playing a blinder to stand aside in this UK election and encourage it voters to support remain candidates.

There is s 50/50 chance we will also have an Irish GE. SF suffered in the EU and local elections because of there being no NI assembly and because it's absentionist MP's. I think it would get an election bounce in an Irish GE if it took this path.

In Scotland the SNP will take virtually all the Scottish seats. With maybe the UUP taking 3+5 seats off the DUP by tactical voting the Scottish Irish block could be hitting 60 votes. With the Liberals they could be kingmaker's on the next Parliament.

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 1:51pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

As SF will not take there seats would it not be a playing a blinder to stand aside in this UK election and encourage it voters to support remain candidates.

There is s 50/50 chance we will also have an Irish GE. SF suffered in the EU and local elections because of there being no NI assembly and because it's absentionist MP's. I think it would get an election bounce in an Irish GE if it took this path.

In Scotland the SNP will take virtually all the Scottish seats. With maybe the UUP taking 3+5 seats off the DUP by tactical voting the Scottish Irish block could be hitting 60 votes. With the Liberals they could be kingmaker's on the next Parliament.

Where are you getting the bolded bit from? Looks like a bit of a self serving stretch to me. Any data on that?

I'd put SF's performance down to a change of leadership that has not given the bounce expected and a bit of arrogance at local level.

They will not interfere in the running of other countries...that is the central tenet of 'abstentionism' and it won't be put aside for some temporary advantage.
They would lose more than they gained imo, knowing a lot of their support base around the north and border areas.

L1011 · 30-10-2019 1:52pm

"Should" is a pointless question because you know its not going to happen

It'd be useful if they basically didn't campaign in Belfast South to ensure that Pengelly doesn't get in by splitting the anti-DUP vote three ways badly like last time though.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They will not interfere in the running of other countries...that is the central tenet of 'abstentionism'

Abstentionism has been unwound layer by layer over the years - councils, Dáil, Stormont. It doesn't have a central tenet other than what it is decided to have at the time.

markodaly · 30-10-2019 2:21pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have played a blinder on Brexit in many ways, culminating in an Irish minister appearing on a BBC NI debate last night, standing side by side with SF and the Alliance and the SDLP lambasting the DUP.

.

Erm, no, just no.

SF have been as bad as the DUP in many respects.

They have nothing for the NI Nationalist community in terms of Brexit. If there was an Irish Government minister on the BBC last night, I can assure it it was not so, by some SF master plan.

Why vote for them in this Election?

markodaly · 30-10-2019 2:24pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They will not interfere in the running of other countries...that is the central tenet of 'abstentionism' and it won't be put aside for some temporary advantage.
They would lose more than they gained imo, knowing a lot of their support base around the north and border areas.

So why stand for elections of these 'other' countries even though SF have accepted the GFA and NI as being part of the Union but that is another story.

It strikes me as SF yet again trying to be virtuous and pure when we need some pragmatism.

Dyr · 30-10-2019 2:26pm

Poster: Should SF do X?

People who cant stand SF: Yes, absolutely

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 2:31pm

L1011 wrote: »

"Should" is a pointless question because you know its not going to happen

It'd be useful if they basically didn't campaign in Belfast South to ensure that Pengelly doesn't get in by splitting the anti-DUP vote three ways badly like last time though.

Abstentionism has been unwound layer by layer over the years - councils, Dáil, Stormont. It doesn't have a central tenet other than what it is decided to have at the time.

I can only go on what they claim it to be. And Danny Morrison has written on it and claims that to be the reason for it. SF voters seem to concur.

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 2:33pm

markodaly wrote: »

So why stand for elections of these 'other' countries even though SF have accepted the GFA and NI as being part of the Union but that is another story.

It strikes me as SF yet again trying to be virtuous and pure when we need some pragmatism.

Somebody who is partitionist needs Sinn Fein to be 'pragmatic' on his behalf, needs them to do something to get the outcome he wants?

Is that what you require of them? I think you will be sorely disappointed on that score.

rockatansky · 30-10-2019 2:34pm

One of the most pointless threads ever on boards.

Never going to happen, and rightly so.

But I do expect them to be absolutely crucified in both General Elections north and south. Their current leadership is weak.

James Brown · 30-10-2019 2:38pm

May as well ask should the Green party support Fracking.

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 2:48pm

rockatansky wrote: »

But I do expect them to be absolutely crucified in both General Elections north and south. Their current leadership is weak.

I think their vote will fall too and for the reason you state. Not seeing a crucifixion though.

It will be a fascinating election however it pans out.

Berserker · 30-10-2019 2:55pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have played a blinder on Brexit in many ways.

How? The DUP and even the Irish TDs are getting plenty of air time in the UK. SF aren't even on the field of play. FGs stance on Brexit has stolen a lot of SF's thunder.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'd put SF's performance down to a change of leadership that has not given the bounce expected and a bit of arrogance at local level.

More down to the fact that people have grown tired of their brand of angry politics. The fact that they have no interest in getting into government in the RoI and just want to sit on the opposition bench, taking hefty salaries and expenses from the tax payer, isn't helping either. Their current leadership is incredibly weak. I'm shocked that they, Mary-Lou and MON, have been allowed to continue as leaders for this long.

Berserker · 30-10-2019 3:02pm

rockatansky wrote: »

But I do expect them to be absolutely crucified in both General Elections north and south. Their current leadership is weak.

Would be fantastic if people from NI started voting for other parties but I just can't see that happening. SF could sit on the sidelines for the next twenty years and people from a republican background will still vote for them.

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 3:06pm

Berserker wrote: »

How? The DUP and even the Irish TDs are getting plenty of air time in the UK. SF aren't even on the field of play. FGs stance on Brexit has stolen a lot of SF's thunder.

The DUP's 'airtime' is destroying them and showing the ordinary British person what an incredibly backward negative force they are.

Irish TD's are coming across as calm, informed and completley on top of their brief's and what they want for Ireland and for those who identify as Irish in the north.
FG's stance on Brexit is taken from SF's initial stance, FG were against special status for NI.

The point I was making is that SF knew they wouldn't be listened to in the UK so they stepped aside and the Irish Government filled the vacuum...because they had to.
You now have the Irish in the north with FG as their spokespeople.

Brilliant, for this island, whether it happened by accident or design.

More down to the fact that people have grown tired of their brand of angry politics. The fact that they have no interest in getting into government in the RoI and just want to sit on the opposition bench, taking hefty salaries and expenses from the tax payer, isn't helping either. Their current leadership is incredibly weak. I'm shocked that they, Mary-Lou and MON, have been allowed to continue as leaders for this long.

This 'grown tired' nonsense is just a self serving invention. All parties drop support from time to time.

We will see how much of a trend it is after a few more electoral cycles.

IAmTheReign · 30-10-2019 3:13pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP's 'airtime' is destroying them and showing the ordinary British person what an incredibly backward negative force they are.

Irish TD's are coming across as calm, informed and completley on top of their brief's and what they want for Ireland and for those who identify as Irish in the north.
FG's stance on Brexit is taken from SF's initial stance, FG were against special status for NI.

The point I was making is that SF knew they wouldn't be listened to in the UK so they stepped aside and the Irish Government filled the vacuum...because they had to.
You now have the Irish in the north with FG as their spokespeople.

Brilliant, for this island, whether it happened by accident or design.

This 'grown tired' nonsense is just a self serving invention. All parties drop support from time to time.

We will see how much of a trend it is after a few more electoral cycles.

If you think SF standing aside and letting someone else speak for their electorate is brilliant I assume then you would support them doing exactly that in a GE?

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 3:27pm

IAmTheReign wrote: »

If you think SF standing aside and letting someone else speak for their electorate is brilliant I assume then you would support them doing exactly that in a GE?

The electorate have already said who they want to represent them. The SDLP have been cast aside for a reason - because they always settled for much less than what was required.

Would the NI electorate trust them again - I don't think so.

SF adopted a stand aside policy for a single event - Brexit. Because Brexit will affect the entire island.
There is no doubt that FG and FF have more or less passed muster on how they have played it.
FG dropped their objections to special status for NI and adopted what was recommended by the NI parties - SF and the SDLP.

As long as they did that, then Dublin was the best voice to be heard for us all here on this island.

BarryD2 · 30-10-2019 3:31pm

It's not up to us in the Republic but personally I can't see any reason for voters up north to vote SF. No point whatsoever in electing politicians who won't represent you in the bodies they are elected to. Be better voting SDLP or Alliance.

facehugger99 · 30-10-2019 3:34pm

They should but they won't.

The electorate however should be clever enough not to vote for them - this won't happen either though.

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 3:44pm

BarryD2 wrote: »

It's not up to us in the Republic but personally I can't see any reason for voters up north to vote SF. No point whatsoever in electing politicians who won't represent you in the bodies they are elected to. Be better voting SDLP or Alliance.

As the SF rep on the debate last night said: Where exactly has 'representation and even power in Westminster got the DUP when Britain decides to act in it's selfish interests?

The SF electorate obviously know/believe that seats in Westminster amount to very little in the scheme of things.

IAmTheReign · 30-10-2019 4:04pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The electorate have already said who they want to represent them. The SDLP have been cast aside for a reason - because they always settled for much less than what was required.

Would the NI electorate trust them again - I don't think so.

SF adopted a stand aside policy for a single event - Brexit. Because Brexit will affect the entire island.
There is no doubt that FG and FF have more or less passed muster on how they have played it.
FG dropped their objections to special status for NI and adopted what was recommended by the NI parties - SF and the SDLP.

As long as they did that, then Dublin was the best voice to be heard for us all here on this island.

I would argue that Dublin is the only voice for everyone on the island right now. With Stormont not sitting and SF boycotting Westminster SF standing aside to let FG speak for them is less a masterstroke of political planning and more to do with them being sidelined throughout the whole Brexit process.

Lets be real here, this GE will be fought over Brexit. It is still the biggest issue in UK (and Irish) politics. It was okay for them to stand aside and let someone else negotiate for NI for the last 3 years, why is it different when an election is called over the issue?

What exactly are SF going to say when they're out canvassing and they're asked about Brexit? We're against it, but we'd rather let someone else fight it for us?

We all know they won't stand aside and we all know it doesn't really matter what they tell their voters. The same people who voted for them at the last election will vote for them again this election. That doesn't change the fact that they're doing nothing to help the very people who voted for them.

jimwallace197 · 30-10-2019 4:10pm

Got a call off Dessie Ellis last week, three times he mentioned he was a deputy in the space of 30 seconds, god we elect some utter gob****es in this country.

Dyr · 30-10-2019 4:12pm

jimwallace197 wrote: »

Got a call off Dessie Ellis last week, three times he mentioned he was a deputy in the space of 30 seconds, god we elect some utter gob****es in this country.

Did he mention the Average industrial wage?

Dessie wouldn't be the sharpest tool in the box

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 4:18pm

IAmTheReign wrote: »

I would argue that Dublin is the only voice for everyone on the island right now. With Stormont not sitting and SF boycotting Westminster SF standing aside to let FG speak for them is less a masterstroke of political planning and more to do with them being sidelined throughout the whole Brexit process.

Lets be real here, this GE will be fought over Brexit. It is still the biggest issue in UK (and Irish) politics. It was okay for them to stand aside and let someone else negotiate for NI for the last 3 years, why is it different when an election is called over the issue?

What exactly are SF going to say when they're out canvassing and they're asked about Brexit? We're against it, but we'd rather let someone else fight it for us?

We all know they won't stand aside and we all know it doesn't really matter what they tell their voters. The same people who voted for them at the last election will vote for them again this election. That doesn't change the fact that they're doing nothing to help the very people who voted for them.

That will never change the profound reality of where people are placing their votes.

Carry on stereotyping that vote as stupid, ill informed etc etc.

I don't think SF will be changing a policy of a 100 years just because some in the south are getting uneasy that the British are about to shaft us again.

Whoever you give the credit to for it, the fact remains that FG & FF have been forced to come off certain fences their less than wholehearted, lip serviced republican ideals have allowed them to sit on for a long long time.

That's a good day for us all in the Brexit context and probably in general.

blanch152 · 30-10-2019 4:57pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Special status for northern Ireland was a SF idea, initially rejected by FG.

They have played a blinder on Brexit in many ways, culminating in an Irish minister appearing on a BBC NI debate last night, standing side by side with SF and the Alliance and the SDLP lambasting the DUP.

Standing aside and allowing the Dublin to be seen as the protectors of the Irish identity in NI and moderate unionism will come to be seen as a masterstroke imo.

The UI project can no longer be seen as a meddlesome, badly timed SF idea, it is now mainstream.

SF will not, I would imagine, even contemplate taking their seats. Factions in NI are doing what the Tories are doing for Scottish independence ATM.

SF's attitude will be, let them at it.

Sinn Fein claiming any credit for Ireland's success in Brexit negotiations is a bit like John Terry turning up dressed in full kit for a medal presentation at a match he didn't take part in.

Let there be no mistake, this Brexit deal is bad for Ireland. Any Brexit is bad for Ireland. Yes, if you look through the purely selfish prism of a future united Ireland, it is possible that this particular form of Brexit advances that objective a little further, however, if you are in anyway concerned about the wellbeing of all the people of this island, you know that this Brexit deal is a very bad thing.

Turning back to the election, it will be interesting to watch and see. We have been repeatedly told that there is a demographic inevitability about a united Ireland. Will Sinn Fein increase their vote in line with that?

L1011 · 30-10-2019 5:01pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't think SF will be changing a policy of a 100 years

A policy they changed in 1955, 1982, 1983, 1985 and 1986 (ROI Councils, Stormont, European Parliament, NI Councils, Dáil).

It is not some precious set-in-stone element of the party if its been changed 5 times already!

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 5:05pm

L1011 wrote: »

A policy they changed in 1955, 1982, 1983, 1985 and 1986 (ROI Councils, Stormont, European Parliament, NI Councils, Dáil).

It is not some precious set-in-stone element of the party if its been changed 5 times already!

With regard to Westminster, they say it is. And their supporters support and elect them on that basis.

Not much more to be said on that.

Nidgeweasel · 30-10-2019 5:07pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In the interest of NI and the Irish people in general should the SF stand aside

Why?

Abstentionism is a legitimate concept for which SF have a mandate.

The more seats they win the better.

blanch152 · 30-10-2019 5:07pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The electorate have already said who they want to represent them. The SDLP have been cast aside for a reason - because they always settled for much less than what was required.

Would the NI electorate trust them again - I don't think so.

SF adopted a stand aside policy for a single event - Brexit. Because Brexit will affect the entire island.
There is no doubt that FG and FF have more or less passed muster on how they have played it.
FG dropped their objections to special status for NI and adopted what was recommended by the NI parties - SF and the SDLP.

As long as they did that, then Dublin was the best voice to be heard for us all here on this island.

Special status for Northern Ireland was always a lesser target. A full single market and customs union was always a better outcome for this island.

SF set their sights lower than anyone else. FG set their sights on a far higher outcome but while getting close with May's deal, ended up having to settle for the less ambitious SF position.

blanch152 · 30-10-2019 5:10pm

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Why?

Abstentionism is a legitimate concept for which SF have a mandate.

The more seats they win the better.

That is fair enough.

However, if you are someone who voted Remain in Northern Ireland in 2016, you are best served if you elect an MP who will take their seat in Westminister and fight Boris' deal.

careless sherpa · 30-10-2019 5:24pm

Bambi wrote: »

Did he mention the Average industrial wage?

Dessie wouldn't be the sharpest tool in the box

Sharp enough when it comes to electronics

rockatansky · 30-10-2019 5:50pm

Berserker wrote: »

Would be fantastic if people from NI started voting for other parties but I just can't see that happening. SF could sit on the sidelines for the next twenty years and people from a republican background will still vote for them.

You're very much mistaken if you think it's only people with a Republican background vote for them.

Unless you're following the good old Loyalist deluded sense of reasoning that all Catholics/nationalist = Republican.

blanch152 · 30-10-2019 6:00pm

rockatansky wrote: »

You're very much mistaken if you think it's only people with a Republican background vote for them.

Unless you're following the good old Loyalist deluded sense of reasoning that all Catholics/nationalist = Republican.

People in the middle are more likely to vote Alliance, PBP, Greens or SDLP ahead of Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein's appeal is to hard-core nationalists, not to those interested in a future of compromise.

manbitesdog · 30-10-2019 6:00pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Special status for Northern Ireland was always a lesser target. A full single market and customs union was always a better outcome for this island.

SF set their sights lower than anyone else. FG set their sights on a far higher outcome but while getting close with May's deal, ended up having to settle for the less ambitious SF position.

The proposal for all of the UK to remain in the Customs Union and aligned with SM was not something that was targeted by Fine Gael; it was a concession the EU made to May, but which hardline Brexiters spun as the EU trapping GB.

Dublin’s aim was simply to uphold the GFA and ensure no hard border. As it happens, an All-UK backstop would have been an even better outcome from an Irish perspective, but that was just incidental. The EU’s preference was for an NI-only solution.

rockatansky · 30-10-2019 6:02pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Sinn Fein's appeal is to hard-core nationalists, not to those interested in a future of compromise.

Hardcore nationalists? Utter nonsense.

SharpshooterTom · 30-10-2019 6:13pm

Northern Ireland has 18 of the 650 Westminster seats. DUP have 10, Sinn Fein 7, and Independent Unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon (who is a remainer). The DUP have maximised their seat count largely to due to running electoral pacts (which some see as sectarian) with the UUP who agreed to step aside in certain tight seats to stop a nationalist winning. DUP have 3 out of the 4 Belfast seats, North, South and East, but required an electoral pact in North Belfast in order to win there. The general election 2017 results were:

North Belfast
DUP - Nigel Dodds - 21,240 - 46.2%
Sinn Féin - John Finucane - 19,159 - 41.7%
Alliance - Sam Nelson - 2,475 - 5.4%
SDLP - Martin McAuley - 2,058 - 4.5%
Green (NI) - Malachi O'Hara - 644 - 1.4%
Workers' Party - Gemma Weir - 360 - 0.8%

South Belfast
DUP - Emma Little-Pengelly - 13,299 - 30.4%
SDLP - Alasdair McDonnell - 11,303 - 25.9%
Alliance - Paula Bradshaw - 7,946 - 18.2%
Sinn Féin - Máirtín Ó Muilleoir - 7,143 - 16.3%
Green (NI) - Clare Bailey - 2,241 - 5.1%
UUP Michael Henderson - 1,527 - 3.5%
NI Conservatives Clare Salier - 246 - 0.6%

East Belfast
DUP - Gavin Robinson - 23,917 - 55.8%
Alliance - Naomi Long - 15,443 - 36.0%
UUP Hazel Legge - 1,408 - 3.3%
Sinn Féin - Mairéad O'Donnell - 894 - 2.1%
Green (NI) - Georgina Milne - 561 - 1.3%
NI Conservatives - Sheila Bodel - 446 - 1.0%
SDLP - Séamas de Faoite - 167 - 0.4%
Independent - Bobby Beck - 54 - 0.1%

The SDLP resisted any attempts to run pacts with Sinn Fein citing it didn't want to engage in sectarian politics, so the nationalist vote was split in all 18 seats. However there has been some developments with new UUP leader Steve Aiken, who is a remainer and an opponent of Johnsons deal, is looking to take his party in a new direction and is willing to now stand in all 18 constituencies and not engage in pacts.

If the UUP stand in North Belfast that could be a game changer. The demographics are changing quite rapidly in Belfast with the nationalist vote increasing steadily. Unionism has resorted to pacts in North Belfast & Fermanagh and South Tyrone to combat demographic changes.

I have to say South Belfast is the most disappointing of the lot. Emma Little-Pengelly is a really poor fit for that seat, South Belfast voted 70% remain, is the arguably most affluent area of Northern Ireland, the most diverse and multicultural and ELP scrapes in with 30% in the loyalist working class areas (Sandy Row/Village, Taughmonagh, Belvoir) which don't represent the majority of South Belfast. The remain vote is split between SDLP/Sinn Fein/Alliance/Green and now the UUP. Nationalism is badly split currently in South Belfast.

In the East (where I'm going to be voting) Alliance won this seat in 2010 on the back of Peter Robinsons scandals but since putting fresh face Gavin Robinson (not related) they've won the seat back and increased his vote. Would like to see Alliance take this but the odds look slim.

In North Down remainer Lady Sylvia Hermon may lose her seat this time round to the DUP so that could be a BREXIT GAIN. The DUP might lose seats with some smart tactical voting by remainers and nationalism, but equally they may gain a seat and finish with 11. Fermanagh/South Tyrone will be another battle between Sinn Fein and the UUP, but the demographics are slowly moving away from unionism there.

jm08 · 30-10-2019 6:21pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Sinn Fein's appeal is to hard-core nationalists, not to those interested in a future of compromise.

So the SDLP lost votes to Sinn Fein because nationalists have become more hardcore since the GFA?

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 6:22pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Special status for Northern Ireland was always a lesser target. A full single market and customs union was always a better outcome for this island.

SF set their sights lower than anyone else. FG set their sights on a far higher outcome but while getting close with May's deal, ended up having to settle for the less ambitious SF position.

I remember you been told by a lot of very informed posters on the brexit thread that a 'sea border' was the only practical solution if the UK were to Brexit. I have indeed noticed that you have pivoted away from your view that it wasn't.

blanch152 wrote: »

People in the middle are more likely to vote Alliance, PBP, Greens or SDLP ahead of Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein's appeal is to hard-core nationalists, not to those interested in a future of compromise.

So all those people that used to vote SDLP before switching to SF were really 'hard-core' nationalists all along? Interesting.

L1011 · 30-10-2019 6:23pm

Its not if, its how many. Pengelly is gone unless there is an absolute and utter vote split disaster; in which case she'll be a record books entry for the lowest % vote to get elected with.

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 6:23pm

jm08 wrote: »

So the SDLP lost votes to Sinn Fein because nationalists have become more hardcore since the GFA?

Snap.

darem93 · 30-10-2019 6:33pm

Sinn Fein came quite close to Dodds in the last election, but I'm not sure if they'd be able to unseat him this time around. I'd love to see it though.

I also really hope Pengelly loses her seat in South Belfast. I was literally cringing to see her kicking up such a big fuss about the naming of a bus stop. She definitely only got in last time because of how split the vote was.

Bass Reeves · 30-10-2019 6:53pm

IAmTheReign wrote: »

I would argue that Dublin is the only voice for everyone on the island right now. With Stormont not sitting and SF boycotting Westminster SF standing aside to let FG speak for them is less a masterstroke of political planning and more to do with them being sidelined throughout the whole Brexit process.

Lets be real here, this GE will be fought over Brexit. It is still the biggest issue in UK (and Irish) politics. It was okay for them to stand aside and let someone else negotiate for NI for the last 3 years, why is it different when an election is called over the issue?

What exactly are SF going to say when they're out canvassing and they're asked about Brexit? We're against it, but we'd rather let someone else fight it for us?

We all know they won't stand aside and we all know it doesn't really matter what they tell their voters. The same people who voted for them at the last election will vote for them again this election. That doesn't change the fact that they're doing nothing to help the very people who voted for them.

SF suffered in the local and EU elections last summer.Some in SF are trying to hide it as a leadership issue. However outside of hardcore SF many think there bringing down of the NI assembly, there MP not voting in westminister hurt them.

After the GF agreement SF vote rose sharply in NI, Many of these are not hardcore SF voters. I suspecthamany will shift there vote. However the catch now for SF is Leo has ruled out an election before Christmas. If after the election the Brexit side of UK politics wins by only a small number of MP and SF could have changed the outcome it will suffer in the next election in both north and south.

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Why?

Abstentionism is a legitimate concept for which SF have a mandate.

The more seats they win the better.

In theory yes but Brexit could knock gains over the last 20 years in NI. Many think the number of seats that will determine the outcome of Brexit will be less than 10-20 votes. The NI MP's could be crucial and be enough for a second referendum in the UK

FrancieBrady · 30-10-2019 6:58pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

SF suffered in the local and EU elections last summer.Some in SF are trying to hide it as a leadership issue. However outside of hardcore SF many think there bringing down of the NI assembly, there MP not voting in westminister hurt them.

After the GF agreement SF vote rose sharply in NI, Many of these are not hardcore SF voters. I suspecthamany will shift there vote. However the catch now for SF is Leo has ruled out an election before Christmas. If after the election the Brexit side of UK politics wins by only a small number of MP and SF could have changed the outcome it will suffer in the next election in both north and south.

In theory yes but Brexit could knock gains over the last 20 years in NI. Many think the number of seats that will determine the outcome of Brexit will be less than 10-20 votes. The NI MP's could be crucial and be enough for a second referendum in the UK

You keep saying this but have as yet backed it up with nothing. SF have been abstaining from Westminster for 100 years and through far worse periods than Brexit.
And I would think most voters in the south would have very high awareness why the Executive collapsed.

So where is this data you are basing the above on?

SharpshooterTom · 30-10-2019 7:07pm

Colum Eastwood is running for the Foyle (Derry) to try and take back John Hume's old seat which they only lost by 169 votes last time. Derry has always been a massive SDLP stronghold bucking the SF tidal waves that's gone on in Tyrone, Armagh and Fermanagh.

https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1189517017608577024
Didn't take long though for a SF representative from Dublin to start questioning their allegiances to the Ireland and the Irish unity cause. The SF usual tactic of attacking their Irishness because they swear an oath to Queen Liz.

https://twitter.com/PaulDonnellySF/status/1189522902586146816

Badabing · 30-10-2019 7:12pm

Sinn Fein should give SDLP a free run in South Belfast and vice versa in Fermanagh South Tyrone. And both shouldn't run in East Belfast. Time for Nationalists parties to cop on and get rid of the DUP in these constituencies. Alliance can take East Belfast aswell if the will on every side is there.

SharpshooterTom · 30-10-2019 7:15pm

Badabing wrote: »

Sinn Fein should give SDLP a free run in South Belfast and vice versa in Fermanagh South Tyrone. And both shouldn't run in East Belfast. Time for Nationalists parties to cop on and get rid of the DUP in these constituencies. Alliance can take East Belfast aswell if the will on every side is there.

If Alliance party appears in anyway to be in cahoots with nationalism to defeat unionism they'll lose their moderate unionist votes. Most of the Alliance party voters (around 70%) are from protestants so they have to be careful. They may agree with SDLP and Sinn Fein on social issues but they're not a nationalist pro UI party.

Badabing · 30-10-2019 7:22pm

ThomasFlynn wrote:

If Alliance party appears in anyway to be in cahoots with nationalism to defeat unionism they'll lose their moderate unionist votes. Most of the Alliance party voters (around 70%) are from protestants so they have to be careful. They may agree with SDLP and Sinn Fein on social issues but they're not a nationalist pro UI party.

Agreed. But Sinn Fein in particular have absolutely no chance of winning East Belfast. All 3 parties are Remain so that will appeal to voters.

Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

Comments