Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

FrancieBrady

BarryD2 wrote: »

Sure, it's as much about sticking your finger in the other side's eyes, if they say black you say white and vice versa. Poisonous stuff but if people persist with that, they surely get the society they deserve.

I suppose let them at it, as long as they don't pollute southern politics to any great extent. Who'd want them though while there's all that carry on?

Brilliant from somebody who lives in a jurisdiction where two parties have swapped power since it's birth.

Fecking Brilliant!

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have told you why, in my eyes, this is a better deal than May's.

Where have the EU stated that they will negotiate yet another deal with added unicorns etc BTW?
Are you falling for a bit of electioneering here perhaps?

Oh dear, have you got a job working for Boris?

The reasons why this is a better deal than May's:

(1) Them'uns don't like it.
(2) Ireland loses access to the UK market
(3) Them'uns don't like it.
(4) The UK leaves the Customs Union (but the North doesn't) while in May's deal the UK didn't leave the Customs Union because of the backstop
(5) Them'uns don't like it.
(6) The UK leaves the Single Market (but the North doesn't) while in May's deal the UK didn't leave the Single Market because of the backstop
(7) Them'uns don't like it.
(8) Ireland loses the landbridge, with customs checks on way into UK and on way into Europe, a really serious problem for our economy.
(9) Them'uns don't like it.

Yes, the reasons why Boris' deal is a better deal than May's deal really make sense.

BarryD2 wrote: »

Sure, it's as much about sticking your finger in the other side's eyes, if they say black you say white and vice versa. Poisonous stuff but if people persist with that, they surely get the society they deserve.

I suppose let them at it, as long as they don't pollute southern politics to any great extent. Who'd want them though while there's all that carry on?

Hitting the nail on the head there.

It is actually about the other side putting both their eyes out, so we will be better off because we are only putting one of our eyes out. It is quite incredible to see Boris' deal being celebrated on here as a good deal for Ireland.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Oh dear, have you got a job working for Boris?

The reasons why this is a better deal than May's:

(1) Them'uns don't like it.
(2) Ireland loses access to the UK market
(3) Them'uns don't like it.
(4) The UK leaves the Customs Union (but the North doesn't) while in May's deal the UK didn't leave the Customs Union because of the backstop
(5) Them'uns don't like it.
(6) The UK leaves the Single Market (but the North doesn't) while in May's deal the UK didn't leave the Single Market because of the backstop
(7) Them'uns don't like it.
(8) Ireland loses the landbridge, with customs checks on way into UK and on way into Europe, a really serious problem for our economy.
(9) Them'uns don't like it.

Yes, the reasons why Boris' deal is a better deal than May's deal really make sense.

the reason it is better, is because the decision on a 'hard border' is the responsibility of US on the island of Ireland.

Away off on one of your mythical misquotes and misrepresentation of people's POV's.

Hitting the nail on the head there.

It is actually about the other side putting both their eyes out, so we will be better off because we are only putting one of our eyes out. It is quite incredible to see Boris' deal being celebrated on here as a good deal for Ireland.

Again with the myth making about 'celebrations'.

You really are the most dangerous type of debater/poster there is.

Your attempts to drag every conversation into these cul de sacs is pathetic blanch.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

the reason it is better, is because the decision on a 'hard border' is the responsibility of US on the island of Ireland.

May's deal meant no hard border ever, how can the possibility of a hard border be better.

Fionn1952

BarryD2 wrote: »

Sure, it's as much about sticking your finger in the other side's eyes, if they say black you say white and vice versa. Poisonous stuff but if people persist with that, they surely get the society they deserve.

I suppose let them at it, as long as they don't pollute southern politics to any great extent. Who'd want them though while there's all that carry on?

A bit off the mark, Barry - it's fear of the other side sticking the finger in their eye for the majority.

Nationalists have historic reasons to worry about it, and there's a fear on the Unionist side that should the boot be on the other foot, many would be happy to repeat it in reverse.

There are, of course, a significant minority who conform to your description, but as time passes, these attitudes diminish. The fear factor is slower to go though.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

May's deal meant no hard border ever, how can the possibility of a hard border be better.

No, wrong. There would be no hard Border for as long as the UK observed the backstop.

May's deal is gone blanch...they refused to ratify it. It is dead in the water and no longer an option.

There is a Deal on the table currently, which the current leader is now seeking support for with the UK electorate.

That 'deal' leaves the decision (and the responsibility for) on a Hard Border in our hands for as long as the UK observes that deal. .

There will no longer be any hiding behind the UK electorate, a Tory Government if a Hard Border ever happens.
That is a good and transparent thing for this island.Self determination is always preferable imo.

It also means for the people of NI, (all of them) that they are in the EU customs Union from the get go. Much much better than May's deal.

If Labour achieve another deal then we can appraise it when and if it happens.

CrabRevolution

I'm no SF supporter, but this entire thread seems to boil down to:

"The electorate have repeatedly voted for an outcome I don't want, so the solution is to deny them that option at the next election"

BonnieSituation

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I'm no SF supporter, but this entire thread seems to boil down to:

"The electorate have repeatedly voted for an outcome I don't want, so the solution is to deny them that option at the next election"

And the same people make the same arguments repeatedly.

Thankfully we've had some decent analysis by the user, ThomasFlynn.

liamtech

An Aside on to Unionism for a moment

Im thinking the UUP's appearance on The View BBC1 NI tonight will be interesting, with the argument on their refusal to endorse a pact with the DUP

But in a way its a win win for the UUP to keep going as they are - i would argue they are waiting for the NI Polls to come out - before they make a final decision

Consider the attacks on the DUP which they have launched - rightly in my opinion. By laying down a marker, Aiken can wait to see how the DUP/UUP are in Polls as the start to come in for NI Only - If the UUP are ahead, its full steam ahead, with him possibly being able to argue that its the DUP that should step aside

If they are neck and neck he can keep fighting if he wishes

And if despite everything, the DUP are clearly in the lead, he can step aside, having received massive amounts of publicity for UUP during the course of the election

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

An Aside on to Unionism for a moment

Im thinking the UUP's appearance on The View BBC1 NI tonight will be interesting, with the argument on their refusal to endorse a pact with the DUP

But in a way its a win win for the UUP to keep going as they are - i would argue they are waiting for the NI Polls to come out - before they make a final decision

Consider the attacks on the DUP which they have launched - rightly in my opinion. By laying down a marker, Aiken can wait to see how the DUP/UUP are in Polls as the start to come in for NI Only - If the UUP are ahead, its full steam ahead, with him possibly being able to argue that its the DUP that should step aside

If they are neck and neck he can keep fighting if he wishes

And if despite everything, the DUP are clearly in the lead, he can step aside, having received massive amounts of publicity for UUP during the course of the election

The UUP refusing to do a pact would be a bigger 'watershed' moment than the Anglo Irish Agreement.

I can't see it, but who knows.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The UUP refusing to do a pact would be a bigger 'watershed' moment than the Anglo Irish Agreement.

I can't see it, but who knows.

Well i agree but the polls will let them know if it has a chance of success - they can always back out late in the race

They have rightly accused the DUP of being wasters, and argued that they have disgraced themselves - they can keep attacking and when polling in NI begins they will know if its working - if it is, they can keep going and if the DUP are behind, it falls on them to do the honorable thing

SharpshooterTom

No surprise Steve Aiken has begun to back track on his pledge to field candidates in all 18 constituencies.

Darran Marshall
@DarranMarshall
UUP’s
@SteveAikenUUP
on a North Belfast pact:

“We are listening. One of the things that had changed.. is that yesterday, Sinn Féin have decided to put forward a candidate who is not even going to stand in Westminister.”

*Sinn Féin selected @johnfinucane 40 days ago.

Apparantly the UUP have been receiving threats too.

Don't know what the point of the UUP is. Might as well just merge with the DUP and have one big NO SURRENDER unionist party since most of them don't like gays, abortion or secularism either, and allow the Alliance party take the rational moderate unionist vote.

Mr.Nice Guy

The thing is most unionists want a pact. The Belfast Telegraph were pushing strongly for it yesterday. If the UUP defied them all and it resulted in SF taking North Belfast, unionists would consider them responsible and desert them next time around.

For all the lamenting about the tribal politics and orange and green etc. when push comes to shove the electorate revert to type and go for the candidate that themmuns don't want.

SharpshooterTom

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The thing is most unionists want a pact. The Belfast Telegraph were pushing strongly for it yesterday. If the UUP defied them all and it resulted in SF taking North Belfast, unionists would consider them responsible and desert them next time around.

Nationalists in the north didn't punish the SDLP for costing Sinn Fein F&ST in 2015.

Sure they have no Westminster seats, but they're likely to get one or two this time round. SDLP are in a better position as a party than the UUP are despite not agreeing to any pacts.

Bass Reeves

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, wrong. There would be no hard Border for as long as the UK observed the backstop.

May's deal is gone blanch...they refused to ratify it. It is dead in the water and no longer an option.

There is a Deal on the table currently, which the current leader is now seeking support for with the UK electorate.

That 'deal' leaves the decision (and the responsibility for) on a Hard Border in our hands for as long as the UK observes that deal. .

There will no longer be any hiding behind the UK electorate, a Tory Government if a Hard Border ever happens.
That is a good and transparent thing for this island.Self determination is always preferable imo.

It also means for the people of NI, (all of them) that they are in the EU customs Union from the get go. Much much better than May's deal.

If Labour achieve another deal then we can appraise it when and if it happens.

There is no guarantee the present deal will be ratified either. It is likely either Brexit party who want no deal and or the DUP who are against this deal will be required to form a Conservative government. Either will seek either changes or abandonment of the deal. So this the present deal is not yet ratified.

There is a chance we may see a broad coalition but that will need all the numbers that it can get. Labour and Liberals will require the SNP as well as other if the numbers are thee.The real irony is if SF stood aside the UUP could then fight all DUP seats on the grounds that there would be no chance of a seat falling to SF.


It is interesting as well taht Irish and Uk stock markets are back to where that were 4-5 weeks ago. They consider the odds of a no deal are the same as when Boris came to power.

FrancieBrady

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is no guarantee the present deal will be ratified either. It is likely either Brexit party who want no deal and or the DUP who are against this deal will be required to form a Conservative government. Either will seek either changes or abandonment of the deal. So this the present deal is not yet ratified.

There is a chance we may see a broad coalition but that will need all the numbers that it can get. Labour and Liberals will require the SNP as well as other if the numbers are thee.The real irony is if SF stood aside the UUP could then fight all DUP seats on the grounds that there would be no chance of a seat falling to SF.


It is interesting as well taht Irish and Uk stock markets are back to where that were 4-5 weeks ago. They consider the odds of a no deal are the same as when Boris came to power.

Chris Hazard put the SF position last night - Dublin is where NI nationalists are looking to regarding Brexit.
There have now been 2 deals were the interests of those identifying as Irish and The GFA have been protected. There is no place for an Irish republican in Westminster (and no place for a unionist either for that matter.)

SharpshooterTom

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1190562526892875776

L1011

DUP standing aside in Fermanagh South Tyrone in the hope of the UUP unseating Gildernew suggests the quid pro quo is agreed for Belfast North already.

So it's down to demographics - two years shift isn't huge - and whatever dent Alliance make to the Unionist vote then

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1190654126016933888

Goes to show that for all the difference of opinion on economic grounds, the bickering will always be put to one side for the Union - and for keeping themmuns out. That will never (never, never) change.

SharpshooterTom

They'll come a time when the demographics in Fermanagh and South Tyrone will have changed to a point where that a pact unionist candidate can't even win anymore. We might be at that point already.

FrancieBrady

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

They'll come a time when the demographics in Fermanagh and South Tyrone will have changed to a point where that a pact unionist candidate can't even win anymore. We might be at that point already.

I can see a lot of the farming and business community abstaining or lending their votes in F/ST

Gerrybadry

This election will be neck and neck. Nationalists will have the same number of seats as unionists: nine.

SF will retain all their seven seats and they will gain Belfast North.

The SDLP will gain Belfast South.

The DUP will retain their other eight seats and might win North Down.

<mod note - this user is sitebanned>

SharpshooterTom

UUP have confirmed they will not stand in North Belfast to give DUP's Nigel Dodds a run-off with SF's John Finucane.

Well that will help Dodds's chances undoubtedly. I don't think its a great deal for the UUP as although they have the free run in F&ST the demographics are making it increasinly harder for them to point where a pact is now struggling, its a better deal for the DUP than it is for the UUP.

Will SDLP run Nicola Mallon in North Belfast now? Or will there be a wink and a nod given to run a 'weaker' candidate to allow Finucane maximise the nationalist vote?

All eyes will now be on Sinn Fein in South Belfast to see if they now run there. They haven't announced a candidate as of yet.

It really depends on whether their hatred of Pengelly will put aside their electoral rivalry with the SDLP to defeat a common enemy or do Sinn Fein take their competition so seriously with the SDLP that they're willing to risk allowing Pengelly back in.

Pengelly will lose if Hanna gets a free run but if Sinn Fein do field a candidate her chances of returning would be greater than 50%.

votecounts

So unionists will support a remain candidate in one area and a brexiteer in another so they can defeat the shinner. At least Aiken has been shown for the weak person and flip flopper he is even before he takes up the leadership role.

johnnyskeleton

Yes, its a little dissappointing that NI community politics is more important than Brexit for them. Its baffling for people outside of NI but then again, a lot of UK seats will be party and policy over pure brexit (to a greater or lesser extent).

Also, SF stepping aside for SDLP may have encouraged the UUP to play their part, but dems the breaks

SharpshooterTom

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Also, SF stepping aside for SDLP may have encouraged the UUP to play their part, but dems the breaks

SF haven't stepped aside for anyone yet.

NIMAN

Nice to see the most important thing in NI politics is still 'keeping the other side out'.

21st century, eh?

johnnyskeleton

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

SF haven't stepped aside for anyone yet.

The point being that the UUP may have been more inclined to split the DUP vote if the only nationalist choice was SDLP

SharpshooterTom

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The point being that the UUP may have been more inclined to split the DUP vote if the only nationalist choice was SDLP

I actually think they might be less likely to.

Its not just Sinn Fein the UUP & DUP have a problem with, its nationalism in general.

So if Sinn Fein pull out of South Belfast making it more likely for the SDLP to win, there will be calls in future elections for the UUP likewise to step aside in South Belfast and allow the DUP to maximise the unionist vote.

SharpshooterTom

NIMAN wrote: »

Nice to see the most important thing in NI politics is still 'keeping the other side out'.

21st century, eh?

I don't like to overly pick sides here, but sectarian pacts are primarily a unionist thing responding to ongoing declining demographics of the protestant community.
Its a sign of pure desperation.

They'd rather go to extreme lengths to maximise out remaining protestant votes rather than moderate and reach out to catholic voters.

Its a terrible tactic in the long term as there will be a point where the demographics have changed in certain seats where a unionist pacts can no longer work. So not reaching out to catholics and playing a prods only strategy is incredibly short sighted and dumb, but they're too bigoted to see it any differently.

NIMAN

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I don't like to overly pick sides here, but sectarian pacts are primarily a unionist thing responding to ongoing declining demographics of the protestant community.
Its a sign of pure desperation.

They'd rather go to extreme lengths to maximise out remaining protestant votes rather than moderate and reach out to catholic voters.

Its a terrible tactic in the long term as there will be a point where the demographics have changed in certain seats where a unionist pacts can no longer work. So not reaching out to catholics and playing a prods only strategy is incredibly short sighted and dumb, but they're too bigoted to see it any differently.

What you say has of course generally been the way in the past, but the other side playing at it now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50284144

Only thing I would say is that they are dressing it up as trying to maximise the pro-Remain vote and as such not sectarian, whereas the UUP/DUP ones are not the same.

BonnieSituation

NIMAN wrote: »

What you say has of course generally been the way in the past, but the other side playing at it now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50284144

Only thing I would say is that they are dressing it up as trying to maximise the pro-Remain vote and as such not sectarian, whereas the UUP/DUP ones are not the same.

It's a bit disingenuous to say the others "are at it as well".

The SDLP have called this a pro-Remain decision. I agree, that there's elements of maximising the nationalist vote to consider in the decision, but it's also the case that most Nationalists will also be remainers.

It's not got any of the tarnish if Aiken's U-turn who has ruined his leadership before it began.

A better stance would have been to stand up to the bullies and the threats. But that will all be ignored now that they've gone what they've done.

I mean from an SDLP standing in North Down is pointless anyway, and why risk Sylvia Hermon not being returned with what few Nationalists there are when they can lend their vote to the incumbent. She's been the only moderate in the HoC and her work on the NI Committee has been commendable considering the other shower, and needs to be continued.

Bass Reeves

NIMAN wrote: »

What you say has of course generally been the way in the past, but the other side playing at it now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50284144

Only thing I would say is that they are dressing it up as trying to maximise the pro-Remain vote and as such not sectarian, whereas the UUP/DUP ones are not the same.

The problem is the British election is what is referred to as first past the post. It is single seat and the person with the highest number of votes get elected. The remain/soft Brexit side is much more fractured than the Brexit side. There is Labour(not 100%remain) the Liberals, Greens, Independent party all seeking seats while you have UKIP and the Conservative party on the other side. If the remain/soft Brexit side do not have a pact then a Conservative victory could happen with a mid 30's vote percentage.

This is why SF not willing to take it's seats should step aside. As I said this is a generation defining election. The good end of the troubles and the GF agreement was a generation defining moment of those who are in there 50&60's this is one for the present younger generation as it is they who will have to deal with the economic conquences. A generational event is a once in a 25-30 year event

FrancieBrady

Point of Order, electoral pacts are NOT sectarian. Electoral pacts to consolidate legitimate Unionist or nationalist positions are not sectarian either.

And as a sidepoint, electoral pacts are not uncommon, either here or elsewhere.

SharpshooterTom

Well well well SDLP have now officially pulled out of North Belfast, East Belfast, and North Down.

Surprised they are still standing in F&ST, I guess its on the basis UUP are remain.

Badabing

Presumably Sinn Fein will stand down in South Belfast now? Give Hanna a clear run at Dodds. That will be fascinating

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Point of Order, electoral pacts are NOT sectarian. Electoral pacts to consolidate legitimate Unionist or nationalist positions are not sectarian either.

And as a sidepoint, electoral pacts are not uncommon, either here or elsewhere.

NIMAN wrote: »

Nice to see the most important thing in NI politics is still 'keeping the other side out'.

21st century, eh?

I tend to agree with NIMAN rather than Francie here.

The behaviour on both sides is really sad and depressing. Neither side can hold themselves up on this occasion.

FrancieBrady

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Well well well SDLP have now officially pulled out of North Belfast, East Belfast, and North Down.

Surprised they are still standing in F&ST, I guess its on the basis UUP are remain.

The UUP/DUP pact is certainly about consolidating the Unionist position.

This SDLP one is very clearly an attempt to consolidate a Remain rather than a Nationalist position.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I tend to agree with NIMAN rather than Francie here.

The behaviour on both sides is really sad and depressing. Neither side can hold themselves up on this occasion.

I would have said that given NI is an artificially constructed majority that this is inevitable and always has been rather than 'sad or depressing'.

This is the political reality people have to live in and function in for 100 years.

coolshannagh28

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would have said that given NI is an artificially constructed majority that this is inevitable and always has been rather than 'sad or depressing'.

This is the political reality people have to live in and function in for 100 years.

True , that is the monstrous truth of NI , the only light at the end of the tunnel is that the current deal holds out the hope of eventual reunification whatever the ultimate price may be .
I don't think and hope the NI election will matter as much this time as I see Johnston getting a majority and the sentiment seems to be that this deal is the deal .

FrancieBrady

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

True , that is the monstrous truth of NI , the only light at the end of the tunnel is that the current deal holds out the hope of eventual reunification whatever the ultimate price may be .
I don't think and hope the NI election will matter as much this time as I see Johnston getting a majority and the sentiment seems to be that this deal is the deal .

I agree. Other than watching on, there is little we can do about who comes to power in the UK, the DUP are a busted flush as the Unionist bloc they are seeking to bring will be more or less the same as before.

The important thing is that a strong 'remain' vote is evident. Have to say, I too am looking forward to the battle between Dodds and Hanna.
I think the SDLP have a huge uphill battle to regain trust across northern Ireland and seem still prone to wrong headed political choices but I respect the efforts of Hanna and Eastwood.

coolshannagh28

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I agree. Other than watching on, there is little we can do about who comes to power in the UK, the DUP are a busted flush as the Unionist bloc they are seeking to bring will be more or less the same as before.

The important thing is that a strong 'remain' vote is evident. Have to say, I too am looking forward to the battle between Dodds and Hanna.
I think the SDLP have a huge uphill battle to regain trust across northern Ireland and seem still prone to wrong headed political choices but I respect the efforts of Hanna and Eastwood.

UUP and SDLP are virtually irrelevant , their hope must be that DUP have so annoyed their vote that some may drift to UUP but alliance are in the game too and on the nationalist side that weak SF leadership may slip votes to SDLP as in the south . Hanna is a good performer but Dodds is smart and ruthless and the debates should be interesting .

votecounts

Badabing wrote: »

Presumably Sinn Fein will stand down in South Belfast now? Give Hanna a clear run at Dodds. That will be fascinating

Thats Pengellys seat, Dodds is north Belfast. Going to be interesting at least.

votecounts

NIMAN wrote: »

Nice to see the most important thing in NI politics is still 'keeping the other side out'.

21st century, eh?

It is worse on the Unionist side as they are voting for a brexiteer rather than a remainer. At least with the nationalist side, they are voting for a remain candidate. Sure Arlene, despite her stating that they are the most powerful party in the North did not have the proverbials to run in her constituency because she knew would get destroyed for supporting Brexit.

Badabing

Sinn Fein pull out of S Belfast E Belfast and N Down. DUP under severe pressure now in all 3. E Belfast should stay DUP but majority will be well down.

Dubh Geannain

Not a big Sinn Féin lover or hater but the below speaks volumes of where they are at in comparison to the DUP. I can't imagine the DUP ever okaying their voters to back any party that is not unionist.

It's no loss to Sinn Féin obviously here as they wouldn't have been in the running but it still makes for good optics for them that they are willing to acknowledge the concept of Unionism and there is the possibility to share common ground on other subjects.

She said it sat comfortably with her to urge Sinn Féin supporters to vote for Ms Harmon.

"It sits very comfortably with me to ask and invite voters to thoughtfully do the right thing," she said.

"And in this case it means defying hard Brexiteers, the likes of Nigel Dodds, the likes of the DUP candidates who have very, very recklessly acted against the interests of everybody.

"Whether you call yourself a unionist or a nationalist, a republican or a loyalist, we actually have many, many interests in common."

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2019/1104/1088516-election-northern-ireland/

Francie Barrett

Sinn Fein standing down in South Belfast means it will almost certainly go to the SDLP, the nationalist vote would have to utterly implode for that not to happen. North Belfast is going to be an absolute bloodbath with Dodds and Finucane going toe to toe and almost nothing splitting the two. You can be sure that Sinn Fein are going to be throwing absolutely everything they have here to get Dodds out. With the demographics always shifting against unionism, I think Sinn Fein might just have enough to squeak in here as increased turnouts in the North tend to benefit them.

The bigger picture is interesting though. For the first time ever, we could be looking at Northern Ireland returning an equal number of unionist and nationalist MP's.

DUP 8 (-2)
Sinn Fein 8 (+1)
SDLP 1 (+1)
Hermon 1 (no change)

jm08

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Sinn Fein standing down in South Belfast means it will almost certainly go to the SDLP, the nationalist vote would have to utterly implode for that not to happen. North Belfast is going to be an absolute bloodbath with Dodds and Finucane going toe to toe and almost nothing splitting the two. You can be sure that Sinn Fein are going to be throwing absolutely everything they have here to get Dodds out. With the demographics always shifting against unionism, I think Sinn Fein might just have enough to squeak in here as increased turnouts in the North tend to benefit them.

The bigger picture is interesting though. For the first time ever, we could be looking at Northern Ireland returning an equal number of unionist and nationalist MP's.

DUP 8 (-2)
Sinn Fein 8 (+1)
SDLP 1 (+1)
Hermon 1 (no change)

Lady Hermon's danger is coming from Alliance and Greens (who both got about 3K votes the last time). They need to step back and let her at it.

L1011

SF moves is unprecedented, sensible and welcome. When you're stuck with that awful voting system needs must sometimes.

FrancieBrady

jm08 wrote: »

Lady Hermon's danger is coming from Alliance and Greens (who both got about 3K votes the last time). They need to step back and let her at it.

I think her performance through the Brexit debacle will be enough to see her home this time.