Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

FrancieBrady

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

I don't understand.

Let's say all 7 SF MPs retain their seats and gain North Belfast. The SDLP gains South Belfast. SF also gains 1 other seat. The remaining 8 seats are filled by unionists. There are 10 nationalist MPs and 8 unionist MPs.

That means the majority of the NI electorate have voted for nationalist pro-reunification candidates. This shows to the SoS that the majority of the electorate support reunification, thus a border poll is called.

It may put pressure on a SoS but it doesn't mandate him to call a border poll.
For instance, he could simply say he needs to see a number of election cycles to be of the view that a border poll would succeed.

FrancieBrady

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

If he didn't call a border poll after a nationalist majority in this election I would expect legal challenges.

What would need to happen for him to be of the opinion that a poll should be called? A Catholic majority in the 2021 census? A nationalist majority at the next Stormont elections?

Is there any chance that Julian Smith personally would call a poll during his tenure as SoS?

He can call one in the morning if he wishes, is the point.

He is not mandated by any specific thing to do so, so there will be no grounds for a challenge.

L1011

If one was called on a hypothetical 10/8 situation, when you take in to account Alliance, Green, PBP voters as well as Unionists who didn't bother voting for Westminster (laziness, living in a 'safe seat', whatever) but would be motivated to do so by a border poll, you'd be left with a damn good chance of it being rejected

If its rejected its seven years before it can even be tried again.

FrancieBrady

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

That's outrageous.

What are Julian Smith's views on reunification?

No idea.

It's laid out in the GFA.

Brexit is an unusual event and it will cause all sorts of anomalies from the norm. It doesn't necessarily mean a border poll would pass.

It will take a few years of Brexit actually affecting NI first.

BonnieSituation

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

That's outrageous.

What are Julian Smith's views on reunification?

I think you should inform yourself before jumping in as you have done.

It's rather shocking that someone who feels so strongly about Sylvia Hermon would be so uninformed about the GFA and politics in the North in general.

jm08

L1011 wrote: »

With FPTP that does not mean a majority have voted for it - South Belfast in a previous more competitive election was won on 24.5%.

To get a majority of TDs down here you need damn close to 50% of the vote, because we have a proper sane voting system. FPTP is neither.

A better way would be to dot up the actual vote each candidate got rather than relying on FPTP.

jm08

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I think you should inform yourself before jumping in as you have done.

It's rather shocking that someone who feels so strongly about Sylvia Hermon would be so uninformed about the GFA and politics in the North in general.

The British Government were meant to be impartial on a UI - that seems to have changed a bit now with the Tories being a bit more bullish about maintaining the Union.

L1011

jm08 wrote: »

A better way would be to dot up the actual vote each candidate got rather than relying on FPTP.

That has a good chance of never getting to 50%+1 due to the presence of Alliance, Green, PBP and unaligned Independents

FrancieBrady

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

Back to the election, what would be considered 'safe seats' for the DUP, i.e no chance of SF gaining them? Apart from East Belfast and North Down of course.

Here you go.

L1011

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

Back to the election, what would be considered 'safe seats' for the DUP, i.e no chance of SF gaining them? Apart from East Belfast and North Down of course.

North Antrim, East Antrim and Lagan Valley are going nowhere.

Fionn1952

Christ, as someone very much in favour of unification, I can't think of anything more disastrous than a border poll being called at the moment. Talk about a clusterf*ck.

An Ciarraioch

UUP could contend for South Antrim, with Danny Kinahan having been a former MP there.

Mr.Nice Guy

The View with Mark Carruthers is running a series of interviews with leaders in the coming weeks. Naomi Long is first up tonight. 10:45pm.

markodaly

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

Back to the election, what would be considered 'safe seats' for the DUP, i.e no chance of SF gaining them? Apart from East Belfast and North Down of course.

You know there are other parties in the North apart from SF and the DUP.
The relentless drive to partition the North into Green/Orange zones is quite damaging.

However, hopefully this election will pull back from this, with other more moderate voices gaining a foothold, particularly the Alliance party with the SDLP making a comeback.

Mr.Nice Guy

I get Naomi Long's opposition to pacts but I think it's a counterproductive strategy. She's doing the Remain camp no favours and I believe she'll contribute indirectly to Dodds getting back in.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I get Naomi Long's opposition to pacts but I think it's a counterproductive strategy. She's doing the Remain camp no favours and I believe she'll contribute indirectly to Dodds getting back in.

She is getting a bit shouty under pressure here.

FrancieBrady

markodaly you never answered, who is running in South Down for the SDLP?

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She is getting a bit shouty under pressure here.

I have to say i have enormous respect for Mark Carruthers as a journalist. He is giving it hard to Long, and granted she is a fine politician and a remainer. I will be tuning in each week for these leaders debates

Carruthers v Dodds or Foster will be breathtaking

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

I have to say i have enormous respect for Mark Carruthers as a journalist. He is giving it hard to Long, and granted she is a fine politician and a remainer. I will be tuning in each week for these leaders debates

Carruthers v Dodds or Foster will be breathtaking

She is tying herself in knots though. NI will be more divided if they Brexit.

Mr.Nice Guy

Carruthers is the best journalist in NI for me. Disappointed in Naomi Long's performance. She didn't put her party's stance in a good light and looked flustered.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Carruthers is the best journalist in NI for me. Disappointed in Naomi Long's performance. She didn't put her party's stance in a good light and looked flustered.

Agree. As one of the panelists said: 'Very unusually flustered and hectoring'.

liamtech

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Carruthers is the best journalist in NI for me. Disappointed in Naomi Long's performance. She didn't put her party's stance in a good light and looked flustered.

Agreed on Carruthers

I have sympathy for Naomi Long's position - obviously she has to spin to explain the lack of pacts but it is quite obvious that she cant enter an agreement with either SF or the SDLP - to do so would simply arm DUP/TUV/JAMIE-BRYSON-ESQUE groups to label her, and more importantly her party, as being pro nationlist and damaging of Unionism

The Alliance is earning its keep by remaining neutral on the union - they arn't Nationalist, or Unionist - they are other - if she enters a pact to stand aside, effectively urging Alliance Voters to support the SDLP or SF - it would end badly for the Alliance - its Venn Diagram of support from moderate unionist, nationalist, and those that dont wish to conform to either block, would be tarnished

I have to say, the fact that SF and the SDLP have stood aside for her in East Belfast, may backfire very badly - i hope it works though

Brexit really is catastrophic for british politics and the politics of NI

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

Agreed on Carruthers

I have sympathy for Naomi Long's position - obviously she has to spin to explain the lack of pacts but it is quite obvious that she cant enter an agreement with either SF or the SDLP - to do so would simply arm DUP/TUV/JAMIE-BRYSON-ESQUE groups to label her, and more importantly her party, as being pro nationlist and damaging of Unionism

The Alliance is earning its keep by remaining neutral on the union - they arn't Nationalist, or Unionist - they are other - if she enters a pact to stand aside, effectively urging Alliance Voters to support the SDLP or SF - it would end badly for the Alliance - its Venn Diagram of support from moderate unionist, nationalist, and those that dont wish to conform to either block, would be tarnished

I have to say, the fact that SF and the SDLP have stood aside for her in East Belfast, may backfire very badly - i hope it works though

Brexit really is catastrophic for british politics and the politics of NI

I get your point, but just wonder is it one of those times you have to sniff the wind and choose.

What do you mean by the bolded bit btw?

jm08

L1011 wrote: »

That has a good chance of never getting to 50%+1 due to the presence of Alliance, Green, PBP and unaligned Independents

Just treat them as don't knows - for example in the European Elections, just use the first count votes of Diane Dodds (124,991), Danny Kennedy (53,052) and Jim Allister (62,021) for unionists and Sinn Fein (126,951) and SDLP (78,589) for nationalists.



That would give Unionists about 240,000 votes and Nationalists 205,000.

markodaly

Alliance have no option really. Their whole raison d'etre is to remain neutral on the constitutional issue and non sectarian.

There is a big middle ground, especially among younger liberal voters who have no hangups about Green/Orange politics of the past nor a desire to keep perpetuating it into the future. They are the voters they are targeting and it seems to be working looking at recent elections.

It is not going to happen over night, but if NI is to ever come out and ditch the poisonous green/orange politics of the past, then parties like Alliance need to be front and center in the debate where people can give them a vote.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I get your point, but just wonder is it one of those times you have to sniff the wind and choose.

What do you mean by the bolded bit btw?

I appreciate your question, let me try to explain better.

By standing aside in East BF, the SDLP and SF are effectively urging their supporters, predominantly nationalists, to vote Alliance. I respect that, it makes sense, and in any other region of the UK it would work and benefit both the number of remain MP's, and the individual parties.

But i worry that it will damage the Alliance party in Northern Ireland. She may well take a seat or at least have a great campaign. But regardless, the Alliance party can be attacked, for having been endorsed by SF, and receiving support from the 'others'.. 'Themuns' as is often stated

The Alliance are always attacked by unionists for 'splitting votes', and 'helping nationalists' - during the Flag debate they were attacked for supposedly helping remove the Union Flag, which was nonsense of course but still. it is always the way of attacking the Alliance. To attempt to drag them out of neutrality, by accusing them of being partial

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

I appreciate your question, let me try to explain better.

By standing aside in East BF, the SDLP and SF are effectively urging their supporters, predominantly nationalists, to vote Alliance. I respect that, it makes sense, and in any other region of the UK it would work and benefit both the number of remain MP's, and the individual parties.

But i worry that it will damage the Alliance party in Northern Ireland. She may well take a seat or at least have a great campaign. But regardless, the Alliance party can be attacked, for having been endorsed by SF, and receiving support from the 'others'.. 'Themuns' as is often stated

The Alliance are always attacked by unionists for 'splitting votes', and 'helping nationalists' - during the Flag debate they were attacked for supposedly helping remove the Union Flag, which was nonsense of course but still. it is always the way of attacking the Alliance. To attempt to drag them out of neutrality, by accusing them of being partial

Ok, get that and agree.

I still think the Alliance should have sniffed the wind on this one, the losers long term in this will be those who backed or aided Brexit. The parites of the south came together to protect the state and the pro remain parites have done it in the North...not easy for any of them, SDLP or SF (backing a Unionist)
Alliance are caught in the middle dithering.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ok, get that and agree.

I still think the Alliance should have sniffed the wind on this one, the losers long term in this will be those who backed or aided Brexit. The parites of the south came together to protect the state and the pro remain parites have done it in the North...not easy for any of them, SDLP or SF (backing a Unionist)
Alliance are caught in the middle dithering.

Its a difficult situation for sure, for all involved. Politics in NI is badly polarized (one may say that is always the case but brexit is for me, is like pouring petrol on a smouldering fire) - The logical thing would be for remain to unite across unionism, nationalism, and non conforming Northern Irish, and effectively say that for now, stopping Brexit is the priority. The problem is they can't do it. Thanks to the likes of Jim Allister, Jamie Bryson, and the entire DUP, moderate unionists tend to be impressionable, and may buy back in to the US v THEM, on all fronts. This election is vital for actually seeing where the silent mass of unionism actually stands

Again, its shocking. Watching Question time tonight and you can see how divisive brexit is in the UK.. move to NI, and a divided community is divided further. And all for English Nationalist reasons - it really is shocking

Bass Reeves

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ok, get that and agree.

I still think the Alliance should have sniffed the wind on this one, the losers long term in this will be those who backed or aided Brexit. The parites of the south came together to protect the state and the pro remain parites have done it in the North...not easy for any of them, SDLP or SF (backing a Unionist)
Alliance are caught in the middle dithering.

No point in voting for SF so. SF should step aside for SDLP in every case. A vote for SF is a vote wasted from what you are saying as SF will not vote in Westminister. It could step aside and advise all it voters to vot for pro remain parties as it will not attend Westminister.

SF will be the biggest loser long term. It by default is aiding Brexit a vote for SF is a vote for Brexit by default.

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

Its a difficult situation for sure, for all involved. Politics in NI is badly polarized (one may say that is always the case but brexit is for me, is like pouring petrol on a smouldering fire) - The logical thing would be for remain to unite across unionism, nationalism, and non conforming Northern Irish, and effectively say that for now, stopping Brexit is the priority. The problem is they can't do it. Thanks to the likes of Jim Allister, Jamie Bryson, and the entire DUP, moderate unionists tend to be impressionable, and may buy back in to the US v THEM, on all fronts. This election is vital for actually seeing where the silent mass of unionism actually stands

Again, its shocking. Watching Question time tonight and you can see how divisive brexit is in the UK.. move to NI, and a divided community is divided further. And all for English Nationalist reasons - it really is shocking

Partition made a mess of Irish politics and has now contributed in a huge way to making a mess of UK politics.

The problems of Brexit are just yet another manifestation of the lunacy of creating an artificial majority by selectively partitioning an island.

No partition and the UK would be out and gone and dealing with the consequences.