Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2 · 24-10-2019 5:47pm

Tea Shock wrote: »

This will be overshadowed by a possible election, proposed Labour amendment 44 to WAB wants to change the consent mechanism in Johnson's WA from a simple majority in Stormont to one requiring cross community support, consistent with the mechanism stipulated in the GFA!

In summary, they want to negotiate with themselves again, on things already rejected by the EU.

This is true, but you have to look at it in context. It is not proposed because MP's think they can vote an amendment through and assume the other side will accept it without question. This is a wrecker amendment. It is proposed becasue it would be hard for other MPs to vote against it as a result of the positions they have previously taken, and if it does get through they know the EU would not accept the change thus derailing the process.

Tea Shock · 24-10-2019 5:53pm

Just as a humorous aside, the Tories commissioned special commemorative Brexit 50p coins with the 31/10/2019 on them at a cost of £10 million

All have to be melted now!

hometruths · 24-10-2019 5:53pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The HoC still have to approve he's using the FTPA, the one nation Tories are in open revolt. I can't see it happening

Labour will vote for it. Maybe not all of them but certainly enough of them to get it over the line. They have to.

An Ciarraioch · 24-10-2019 5:54pm

Akrasia wrote: »

Thats his stated plan, his unstated plan is to get the opposition to vote for an election under the fixed term parliament act on Monday, before they can confirm the extension from the EU. If the act passes, he can then change the date of the election and disband parliament before they get a chance to confirm the extension resulting in a crash out on 31st of October

If Corbyn falls for this then he is as stupid as Johnson seems to think he is.

Isn't the extension announcement due tomorrow?

Imreoir2 · 24-10-2019 5:55pm

Tea Shock wrote: »

Just as a humorous aside, the Tories commissioned special commemorative Brexit 50p coins with the 31/10/2019 on them at a cost of £10 million

All have to be melted now!

Hopefully someone manages to save a few, they will probably be worth a bit in years to come, maybe as much as 50p today.

Tea Shock · 24-10-2019 5:59pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Isn't the extension announcement due tomorrow?

The extension has to be ratified in the HoC which cannot happen before Monday

Johnson is playing more games!

Capt'n Midnight · 24-10-2019 6:09pm

Tea Shock wrote: »

Just as a humorous aside, the Tories commissioned special commemorative Brexit 50p coins with the 31/10/2019 on them at a cost of £10 million

All have to be melted now!

Ecclesiastes 1:9
What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

From 2018
the coin will feature the Queen's head and the date 29 March 2019 and on the reverse the phrase "Friendship with all nations".

Enzokk · 24-10-2019 6:15pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson's plan is to get the deal through and have an election early December.

I have plans to move for the winter to somewhere where it is warm and sunny, but like Johnson I don't have the means to make this happen so both of us is out of luck and need outside help to have this happen.

Labour will probably go for an election once the extension is secured. As for their plans, they want the opportunity to negotiate a deal with the EU. If the EU gives them 2 options, May's deal or Johnson's, then they will decide which one is less worse and put that to a vote for the people to decide if they want to Brexit on those terms or remain. If they are able to get concessions on the customs union they are looking for then that deal will be put to the people. But you can expect Farage to fight against any deal but a "clean break" so in an election he will take votes from likely both parties (maybe not seats though) as he can still sell unicorns to people because Johnson has not done an economic impact assessment on his deal.

CelticRambler · 24-10-2019 6:21pm

Regarding what happens after a 'successful' Brexit (with or without a deal):

farmchoice wrote: »

my fear is that if they they leave and subsequently find themselves up the creek as they inevitably will it will not lead to a period of self reflection. as opposed to seeing the error of their ways they will do exactly what they are doing now, blame everyone but themselves.

There's one important difference to consider: in a post Brexit GB, when everything has gone to pot, it's pretty certain that the "they" you're refering to will watch the UK break up into an independent Scotland, a Northern Ireland reunited with the Republic, and an increasingly uppity Wales whose Plaid Cymru MPs hold the balance of power in Westminster.
If ever any of "them" try to blame anyone but themselves, it'll be dead easy to refer to back to the Will of the People 2016 and say: that's what you voted for, and you refused to let anyone vote again on the matter. You let the sovereignty genie out of the bottle, and it broke the UK into its consituent nations.

Christy42 · 24-10-2019 6:29pm

Could the EU decide that the extension is on the basis of an election and so say election date +1 month or whatever?

Tell me how · 24-10-2019 6:31pm

Excuse my language, but I think it is fair to say that Peter Oborne has no f*cks left to give.

https://twitter.com/UKDemockery/status/1187167075820802048

Naming names is obviously very pointed. C4 will probably pick up slack for letting it happen even though it has been said in many places for a long time. Not least this thread.
Can't see Peston/Keunnsberg being successful in removing the accusation once it has been said in such a forthright manner.

Could this be deemed to be slanderous?

is_that_so · 24-10-2019 6:32pm

Christy42 wrote: »

Could the EU decide that the extension is on the basis of an election and so say election date +1 month or whatever?

Apart from the French misgivings they would favour a straightforward 3 months but they have said that Britain could sign off before the end of that.

GM228 · 24-10-2019 6:41pm

Tea Shock wrote: »

Breaking: Johnson calling for a General Election to be held on December 12th

Can he get it though?

To note is a motion for a GE can not state a date.

Imreoir2 · 24-10-2019 6:48pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Could this be deemed to be slanderous?

I think that is quite unlikely. It's true.

10000maniacs · 24-10-2019 6:51pm

Johnson now trying to blackmail Labour into agreeing to a general election on the 12th of December.
That will work, LOL.

prawnsambo · 24-10-2019 7:06pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Excuse my language, but I think it is fair to say that Peter Oborne has no f*cks left to give.

https://twitter.com/UKDemockery/status/1187167075820802048

Naming names is obviously very pointed. C4 will probably pick up slack for letting it happen even though it has been said in many places for a long time. Not least this thread.
Can't see Peston/Keunnsberg being successful in removing the accusation once it has been said in such a forthright manner.

Could this be deemed to be slanderous?

I think Peston is becoming a bit uneasy in this role. His tweets lately have become almost apologetic. But it's interesting that often he's completely at sea on what the real story is and admits as much. It's quite striking to see him openly floundering with two different and contradictory stories. The upshot of this though, is that he appears to be either a bear of very little brain or he's been so long suckling at the teat of 'number 10 sources' that he's suffering from crippling cognitive dissonance.

Edit: And just after I post this, here is again.

sdanseo · 24-10-2019 7:08pm

Corbyn was like a broken record on the election. He will agree after the threat of no deal dissapears. If he refuses one once extension is official, he will have lost any remaining credibility and his position will be untenable.
Unless of course he decides on the line that 3 months is nothing and he could by that time argue that the threat is back.

He may be correct that Tories will only win again but he can't just keep refusing an election when at the same time throwing about the idea that people should be allowed to vote again in another referendum.

Tell me how · 24-10-2019 7:10pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think that is quite unlikely. It's true.

Well, that's the thing, it's a subjective opinion. One which a huge number of people hold but I'm not sure you could say there is evidence that LK is nothing more than a mouthpiece for the government.

For someone to actually name her as such could be deemed to be detrimental to her impartiality as the mud has been thrown. The fact that it was on a C4 show and the two journalists named are ITV and BBC could be a coincidence but could also be seen to be biased and intentional.

Danzy · 24-10-2019 7:18pm

Water John wrote: »

January deadline allows Johnson the option of a GE. A few weeks to get the Bill through Parliament doesn't.

Unless enough of the opposition get on board, nothing will change.

Brussels will give enough time to have an election, they'll hope Boris wins and can deliver the extra dozen or so votes he needs.

Danzy · 24-10-2019 7:24pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Corbyn was like a broken record on the election. He will agree after the threat of no deal dissapears. If he refuses one once extension is official, he will have lost any remaining credibility and his position will be untenable.
Unless of course he decides on the line that 3 months is nothing and he could by that time argue that the threat is back.

He may be correct that Tories will only win again but he can't just keep refusing an election when at the same time throwing about the idea that people should be allowed to vote again in another referendum.

It's going to look awful for the opposition.

A Govt that is 49 seats short, can't get legislation passed. Brexit chaos but has a deal that Dublin and Brussels are happy with and it has an opposition that refuses repeated calls to allow an election.

lawred2 · 24-10-2019 7:27pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Corbyn was like a broken record on the election. He will agree after the threat of no deal dissapears. If he refuses one once extension is official, he will have lost any remaining credibility and his position will be untenable.
Unless of course he decides on the line that 3 months is nothing and he could by that time argue that the threat is back.

He may be correct that Tories will only win again but he can't just keep refusing an election when at the same time throwing about the idea that people should be allowed to vote again in another referendum.

A general election is in no way comparable to a single question referendum..

You do realize that it's not just Labour that are refusing to give BJ the election he wants right? Both the SNP and Lib Dems are pretty much on the exact same page as Corbyn. No election on BJ's terms.

lawred2 · 24-10-2019 7:30pm

Danzy wrote: »

It's going to look awful for the opposition.

A Govt that is 49 seats short, can't get legislation passed. Brexit chaos but has a deal that Dublin and Brussels are happy with and it has an opposition that refuses repeated calls to allow an election.

Are Dublin and Brussels 'happy' with the prospective deal?

I doubt it.

Any deal Brexit is a pig in a poke for Ireland and the EU.

And it's entirely appropriate for the opposition to not accede to something that they disagree with.

Not sure how this looks 'bad' for the opposition at all. It's not in their interests or desire to facilitate a Brexit that they do not support so why should they?

lawred2 · 24-10-2019 7:34pm

lawred2 wrote: »

A general election is in no way comparable to a single question referendum..

You do realize that it's not just Labour that are refusing to give BJ the election he wants right? Both the SNP and Lib Dems are pretty much on the exact same page as Corbyn. No election on BJ's terms.

SNP for example

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

Oooh such a broken record

Danzy · 24-10-2019 7:34pm

lawred2 wrote: »

Are Dublin and Brussels 'happy' with the prospective deal?

I doubt it.

Any deal Brexit is a pig in a poke for Ireland and the EU.

And it's entirely appropriate for the opposition to not accede to something that they disagree with.

Not sure how this looks 'bad' for the opposition at all. It's not in their interests or desire to facilitate a Brexit that they do not support so why should they?

Dublin and Brussels will wish Cameron had won the ref but he didn't.

They certainly beamed from side to side after it was signed and have expressed their hopes he'll get it passed.

It is not in their interest to facilitate this Brexit, not in their interest to have an election, not in their ability to agree alternatives.

How long can this stalemate go on?

Strazdas · 24-10-2019 7:45pm

Quite shocking poll results from the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/24/majority-of-voters-think-violence-against-mps-is-price-worth-paying-for-brexit

It's obvious that their political system has completely broken down

prawnsambo · 24-10-2019 7:50pm

I wouldn't get too excited about this as an indication of anything much other than there is certainly a drop in support for the Tories and a rise for the BXP. How much is another day's work. But it shows why Johnson fought so hard to get his 31st October deadline. Notwithstanding that he made a complete pig's ear of it with his double prorogation.

Tell me how · 24-10-2019 7:57pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Quite shocking poll results from the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/24/majority-of-voters-think-violence-against-mps-is-price-worth-paying-for-brexit

It's obvious that their political system has completely broken down

Key element of the survey.

Most Leave voters across all three countries think violence towards MPs is a ‘price worth paying’ for Brexit - 71% in England, 60% in Scotland and 70% in Wales. The majority of Remain voters across all three countries think violence towards MPs is a ‘price worth paying’ to Remain - 58% in England, 53% in Scotland and 56% in Wales.

A majority of Remain voters across all three countries think protests in which members of the public are badly injured are a ‘price worth paying’ to stop Brexit and remain in the EU - 57% in England, 56% in Scotland and 57% in Wales. Even larger majorities of Leave voters in all three countries think protests in which members of the public are badly injured are a ‘price worth paying’ to achieve Brexit - 69% in England, 62% in Scotland and 70% in Wales.

Majorities in England, Scotland and Wales think that violence towards MPs and violent protests in which people are badly injured is ‘likely to occur’ if Brexit takes place.

To be fair, you could nearly argue that asking such leading questions was careless by the survey organisers.

The Guardian headline normalises the acceptance of violence at this point.
I've said several times we would already be at civil war stage in the UK if this was any time prior to 1900, this both supports that statement and suggests it is at that point right now in sentiment, if not in action.

Strazdas · 24-10-2019 8:01pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Key element of the survey.

To be fair, you could nearly argue that asking such pejorative questions was careless by the survey organisers.

The Guardian headline normalises the acceptance of violence at this point.
I've said several times we would already be at civil war stage in the UK if this was any time prior to 1900, this both supports that statement and suggests it is at that point right now in sentiment, if not in action.

I saw Diarmuid Ferriter say the other evening on the Tonight Show that he thinks a second referendum could spark off a civil war in England.

An Ciarraioch · 24-10-2019 8:08pm

Labour will block the GE motion on Monday:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1187439068369555456

A Dub in Glasgo · 24-10-2019 8:09pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Quite shocking poll results from the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/24/majority-of-voters-think-violence-against-mps-is-price-worth-paying-for-brexit

It's obvious that their political system has completely broken down

Actually I think it is quite shocking that a newspaper should give such prominence to that nonsense

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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