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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Tea Shock

Breaking: Johnson calling for a General Election to be held on December 12th

Can he get it though?

hometruths

Woohoo!
General Election, this will be very exciting!!

Kermit.de.frog

I wonder will the DUP regret their stance on pretty much everything in this election? Some of their seats must be at risk.

Zubeneschamali

schmittel wrote: »

General Election, this will be very exciting!!

Johnson can't call an election, he needs Labour to vote for it. Assuming Johnson is telling the truth and really plans to call for an election, that suggests that the EU have told him the extension is on for at least January 31st.

LeinsterDub

schmittel wrote: »

Woohoo!
General Election, this will be very exciting!!

The HoC still have to approve he's using the FTPA, the one nation Tories are in open revolt. I can't see it happening

Duane Dibbley

Tea Shock wrote: »

Breaking: Johnson calling for a General Election to be held on December 12th

Can he get it though?

No way labour will vote for a GE.

They are Charlatans.

Kermit.de.frog

Johnson's plan is to get the deal through and have an election early December.

Rjd2

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

No way labour will vote for a GE.

They are Charlatans.

Corbyn is gagging for one from all accounts. He likes campaigning and is fed up with been on the opposition benches.

Very brave to suggest we don't get an election in December.

Tea Shock

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

No way labour will vote for a GE.

They are Charlatans.

The exit date of October 31st has to be removed from UK law before Labour would vote for it, doesn't it

That can't happen before they vote on an election on Monday!

robinph

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

No way labour will vote for a GE.

They are Charlatans.

Well labour won't vote for the deal on the promise of a GE when they would take a GE followed by getting their own version of a deal through.

Whilst it's getting very close to the deadline, there is still time for labour to have a vonc and appoint an interim pm to take a different course that they want.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Johnson can't call an election, he needs Labour to vote for it. Assuming Johnson is telling the truth and really plans to call for an election, that suggests that the EU have told him the extension is on for at least January 31st.

In theory, the UK could leave the EU in mid November and hold the GE after this.

The sequencing of events is down to the UK side....the EU won't be bothered when the GE is held, they're only concerned with the WA.

Tea Shock

This will be overshadowed by a possible election, proposed Labour amendment 44 to WAB wants to change the consent mechanism in Johnson's WA from a simple majority in Stormont to one requiring cross community support, consistent with the mechanism stipulated in the GFA!

In summary, they want to negotiate with themselves again, on things already rejected by the EU.

Zubeneschamali

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

No way labour will vote for a GE.

I think they should go for it. Last time I saw a poll asking voting intentions if Brexit does not happen on 31st, the Brexit party took a bite out of the Tories. I don't think things are going to be better for Labour later, might as well take a crack at it. If the deal gets passed and Brexit actually happens, Boris will be a hero to the Brexiteers, so have to go before that.

Duane Dibbley

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think they should go for it. Last time I saw a poll asking voting intentions if Brexit does not happen on 31st, the Brexit party took a bite out of the Tories. I don't think things are going to be better for Labour later, might as well take a crack at it. If the deal gets passed and Brexit actually happens, Boris will be a hero to the Brexiteers, so have to go before that.

They should but they won’t vote for an election this side of Christmas. You can see in the interviews that the Labour MPs are scared of losing their seats.

Imreoir2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but we don't care if they threaten to leave for the next 100 years, in fact it does us some good. What we care about is if they actually ever do leave, especially if they manage to trip themselves up and leave with no deal.

I think it would be better if we could just remove the dates altogether and wait for them to sort out what it is they actually want, because 1) it costs very little to wait and 2) it lowers the risk that they will leave with no deal, the most expensive Brexit of all.

This constant drumbeat of cliff-edge leave dates (the latest one only 1 week away now) was thought would focus minds and get them to get their act together, but it hasn't done that so far, and it is very, very risky.

The clif-edge has consistantly been to the EUs advantage in negiotiation. The risk of no-deal is no greater with the cliff edge than without becasue the UK political system has time and again proved sufficently able to avoid the cliff-edge when it comes to it. With or without the cliff edge, the UK only leaves with no-deal if it makes a conscious choice to do so.

I don't see what the EU has to gain be easing up on the pressure. There is a political crisis in the UK, allowing it to move in slow motion will not change the fundemental facts of that crisis. The UK needs to push through the crisis and come to a resolution one way or the other. Constantly going around in circles, as they tend to do whenever there is not a deadline looming a few weeks away, does no-one any good.

I don't think forcing the pace to a resolution will change the nature of the resolution when we get there. If it takes another 6 months or another six years, the resolution will be what it is, but taking another six years to get there is more damaging to us than if it only takes another six months.

Akrasia

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson's plan is to get the deal through and have an election early December.

Thats his stated plan, his unstated plan is to get the opposition to vote for an election under the fixed term parliament act on Monday, before they can confirm the extension from the EU. If the act passes, he can then change the date of the election and disband parliament before they get a chance to confirm the extension resulting in a crash out on 31st of October

If Corbyn falls for this then he is as stupid as Johnson seems to think he is.

Kermit.de.frog

Tea Shock wrote: »

This will be overshadowed by a possible election, proposed Labour amendment 44 to WAB wants to change the consent mechanism in Johnson's WA from a simple majority in Stormont to one requiring cross community support, consistent with the mechanism stipulated in the GFA!

In summary, they want to negotiate with themselves again, on things already rejected by the EU.

This is why the EU should give a short extension just to get the deal through.

That will focus the minds of opposition MPs who can't stomach no deal.

The longer an extension the more messing around there is going to be.

Macron is right.

Imreoir2

Tea Shock wrote: »

This will be overshadowed by a possible election, proposed Labour amendment 44 to WAB wants to change the consent mechanism in Johnson's WA from a simple majority in Stormont to one requiring cross community support, consistent with the mechanism stipulated in the GFA!

In summary, they want to negotiate with themselves again, on things already rejected by the EU.

This is true, but you have to look at it in context. It is not proposed because MP's think they can vote an amendment through and assume the other side will accept it without question. This is a wrecker amendment. It is proposed becasue it would be hard for other MPs to vote against it as a result of the positions they have previously taken, and if it does get through they know the EU would not accept the change thus derailing the process.

Tea Shock

Just as a humorous aside, the Tories commissioned special commemorative Brexit 50p coins with the 31/10/2019 on them at a cost of £10 million

All have to be melted now!

hometruths

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The HoC still have to approve he's using the FTPA, the one nation Tories are in open revolt. I can't see it happening

Labour will vote for it. Maybe not all of them but certainly enough of them to get it over the line. They have to.

An Ciarraioch

Akrasia wrote: »

Thats his stated plan, his unstated plan is to get the opposition to vote for an election under the fixed term parliament act on Monday, before they can confirm the extension from the EU. If the act passes, he can then change the date of the election and disband parliament before they get a chance to confirm the extension resulting in a crash out on 31st of October

If Corbyn falls for this then he is as stupid as Johnson seems to think he is.

Isn't the extension announcement due tomorrow?

Imreoir2

Tea Shock wrote: »

Just as a humorous aside, the Tories commissioned special commemorative Brexit 50p coins with the 31/10/2019 on them at a cost of £10 million

All have to be melted now!

Hopefully someone manages to save a few, they will probably be worth a bit in years to come, maybe as much as 50p today.

Tea Shock

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Isn't the extension announcement due tomorrow?

The extension has to be ratified in the HoC which cannot happen before Monday

Johnson is playing more games!

Capt'n Midnight

Tea Shock wrote: »

Just as a humorous aside, the Tories commissioned special commemorative Brexit 50p coins with the 31/10/2019 on them at a cost of £10 million

All have to be melted now!

Ecclesiastes 1:9
What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

From 2018
the coin will feature the Queen's head and the date 29 March 2019 and on the reverse the phrase "Friendship with all nations".

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson's plan is to get the deal through and have an election early December.

I have plans to move for the winter to somewhere where it is warm and sunny, but like Johnson I don't have the means to make this happen so both of us is out of luck and need outside help to have this happen.

Labour will probably go for an election once the extension is secured. As for their plans, they want the opportunity to negotiate a deal with the EU. If the EU gives them 2 options, May's deal or Johnson's, then they will decide which one is less worse and put that to a vote for the people to decide if they want to Brexit on those terms or remain. If they are able to get concessions on the customs union they are looking for then that deal will be put to the people. But you can expect Farage to fight against any deal but a "clean break" so in an election he will take votes from likely both parties (maybe not seats though) as he can still sell unicorns to people because Johnson has not done an economic impact assessment on his deal.

CelticRambler

Regarding what happens after a 'successful' Brexit (with or without a deal):

farmchoice wrote: »

my fear is that if they they leave and subsequently find themselves up the creek as they inevitably will it will not lead to a period of self reflection. as opposed to seeing the error of their ways they will do exactly what they are doing now, blame everyone but themselves.

There's one important difference to consider: in a post Brexit GB, when everything has gone to pot, it's pretty certain that the "they" you're refering to will watch the UK break up into an independent Scotland, a Northern Ireland reunited with the Republic, and an increasingly uppity Wales whose Plaid Cymru MPs hold the balance of power in Westminster.
If ever any of "them" try to blame anyone but themselves, it'll be dead easy to refer to back to the Will of the People 2016 and say: that's what you voted for, and you refused to let anyone vote again on the matter. You let the sovereignty genie out of the bottle, and it broke the UK into its consituent nations.

Christy42

Could the EU decide that the extension is on the basis of an election and so say election date +1 month or whatever?

Tell me how

Excuse my language, but I think it is fair to say that Peter Oborne has no f*cks left to give.

https://twitter.com/UKDemockery/status/1187167075820802048

Naming names is obviously very pointed. C4 will probably pick up slack for letting it happen even though it has been said in many places for a long time. Not least this thread.
Can't see Peston/Keunnsberg being successful in removing the accusation once it has been said in such a forthright manner.

Could this be deemed to be slanderous?

is_that_so

Christy42 wrote: »

Could the EU decide that the extension is on the basis of an election and so say election date +1 month or whatever?

Apart from the French misgivings they would favour a straightforward 3 months but they have said that Britain could sign off before the end of that.

GM228

Tea Shock wrote: »

Breaking: Johnson calling for a General Election to be held on December 12th

Can he get it though?

To note is a motion for a GE can not state a date.