Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

I wonder will the DUP regret their stance on pretty much everything in this election? Some of their seats must be at risk.

schmittel wrote: »

Woohoo!
General Election, this will be very exciting!!

The HoC still have to approve he's using the FTPA, the one nation Tories are in open revolt. I can't see it happening

Johnson's plan is to get the deal through and have an election early December.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Johnson can't call an election, he needs Labour to vote for it. Assuming Johnson is telling the truth and really plans to call for an election, that suggests that the EU have told him the extension is on for at least January 31st.

In theory, the UK could leave the EU in mid November and hold the GE after this.

The sequencing of events is down to the UK side....the EU won't be bothered when the GE is held, they're only concerned with the WA.

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

No way labour will vote for a GE.

I think they should go for it. Last time I saw a poll asking voting intentions if Brexit does not happen on 31st, the Brexit party took a bite out of the Tories. I don't think things are going to be better for Labour later, might as well take a crack at it. If the deal gets passed and Brexit actually happens, Boris will be a hero to the Brexiteers, so have to go before that.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but we don't care if they threaten to leave for the next 100 years, in fact it does us some good. What we care about is if they actually ever do leave, especially if they manage to trip themselves up and leave with no deal.

I think it would be better if we could just remove the dates altogether and wait for them to sort out what it is they actually want, because 1) it costs very little to wait and 2) it lowers the risk that they will leave with no deal, the most expensive Brexit of all.

This constant drumbeat of cliff-edge leave dates (the latest one only 1 week away now) was thought would focus minds and get them to get their act together, but it hasn't done that so far, and it is very, very risky.

The clif-edge has consistantly been to the EUs advantage in negiotiation. The risk of no-deal is no greater with the cliff edge than without becasue the UK political system has time and again proved sufficently able to avoid the cliff-edge when it comes to it. With or without the cliff edge, the UK only leaves with no-deal if it makes a conscious choice to do so.

I don't see what the EU has to gain be easing up on the pressure. There is a political crisis in the UK, allowing it to move in slow motion will not change the fundemental facts of that crisis. The UK needs to push through the crisis and come to a resolution one way or the other. Constantly going around in circles, as they tend to do whenever there is not a deadline looming a few weeks away, does no-one any good.

I don't think forcing the pace to a resolution will change the nature of the resolution when we get there. If it takes another 6 months or another six years, the resolution will be what it is, but taking another six years to get there is more damaging to us than if it only takes another six months.

Tea Shock wrote: »

This will be overshadowed by a possible election, proposed Labour amendment 44 to WAB wants to change the consent mechanism in Johnson's WA from a simple majority in Stormont to one requiring cross community support, consistent with the mechanism stipulated in the GFA!

In summary, they want to negotiate with themselves again, on things already rejected by the EU.

This is why the EU should give a short extension just to get the deal through.

That will focus the minds of opposition MPs who can't stomach no deal.

The longer an extension the more messing around there is going to be.

Macron is right.

Akrasia wrote: »

Thats his stated plan, his unstated plan is to get the opposition to vote for an election under the fixed term parliament act on Monday, before they can confirm the extension from the EU. If the act passes, he can then change the date of the election and disband parliament before they get a chance to confirm the extension resulting in a crash out on 31st of October

If Corbyn falls for this then he is as stupid as Johnson seems to think he is.

Isn't the extension announcement due tomorrow?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson's plan is to get the deal through and have an election early December.

I have plans to move for the winter to somewhere where it is warm and sunny, but like Johnson I don't have the means to make this happen so both of us is out of luck and need outside help to have this happen.

Labour will probably go for an election once the extension is secured. As for their plans, they want the opportunity to negotiate a deal with the EU. If the EU gives them 2 options, May's deal or Johnson's, then they will decide which one is less worse and put that to a vote for the people to decide if they want to Brexit on those terms or remain. If they are able to get concessions on the customs union they are looking for then that deal will be put to the people. But you can expect Farage to fight against any deal but a "clean break" so in an election he will take votes from likely both parties (maybe not seats though) as he can still sell unicorns to people because Johnson has not done an economic impact assessment on his deal.

Could the EU decide that the extension is on the basis of an election and so say election date +1 month or whatever?

Christy42 wrote: »

Could the EU decide that the extension is on the basis of an election and so say election date +1 month or whatever?

Apart from the French misgivings they would favour a straightforward 3 months but they have said that Britain could sign off before the end of that.