Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

One thing I haven't seen much commentary on is Scotland's attitude to BJ's deal. If it goes through, it will drive the SNP nuts since they will look at how NI has a new status due to the new customs arrangements while they will be exiting fully from the EU. Surely there will be much unrest over this?

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing I haven't seen much commentary on is Scotland's attitude to BJ's deal. If it goes through, it will drive the SNP nuts since they will look at how NI has a new status due to the new customs arrangements while they will be exiting fully from the EU. Surely there will be much unrest over this?

Nicola Sturgeon was on TV last week saying the deal was a complete disaster for Scotland, with virtually no positives.

Joe_ Public

marno21 wrote: »

Surely if no deal is ruled out pre-election, a post election Tory majority can just repeal the relevant legislation and plough the UK into the abyss?

I dont think you can rule out no deal, since it depends on continued willingness of EU to grant extensions. If they stood on no deal manifesto, won a majority on that basis, then they would be free to pull plug at their leisure. Otherwise i think they would have problems, starting with their own party.

Akrasia

marno21 wrote: »

Surely if no deal is ruled out pre-election, a post election Tory majority can just repeal the relevant legislation and plough the UK into the abyss?

Once the WAB passes No deal becomes the default when they inevitably fail to get a FTA at the end of 2020 and if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

Professor Genius

Akrasia wrote: »

Once the WAB passes No deal becomes the default when they inevitably fail to get a FTA at the end of 2020 and if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

Unlikely Brexit party will have any seats. If they run they will create more opportunities for Lib or Lab seat wins from Con

prawnsambo

Akrasia wrote: »

Once the WAB passes No deal becomes the default when they inevitably fail to get a FTA at the end of 2020 and if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

There is also the danger of a no deal exit if an election is called and Johnson changes the date to after the new extension end date. That's what Labour are afraid of.

Russman

prawnsambo wrote: »

There is also the danger of a no deal exit if an election is called and Johnson changes the date to after the new extension end date. That's what Labour are afraid of.

So would that mean that, in theory, no matter what extension is given, that danger still exists and at some point Labour are going to have to bite the bullet and agree to an election ?
They could obviously string it out until the FTPA kicks in, but that would be too damaging for them.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

Nicola Sturgeon was on TV last week saying the deal was a complete disaster for Scotland, with virtually no positives.

She has to say that, but the whole mess is a huge boost for the SNP. After Independence they should give Cameron, May and Johnson medals.

prawnsambo

Russman wrote: »

So would that mean that, in theory, no matter what extension is given, that danger still exists and at some point Labour are going to have to bite the bullet and agree to an election ?
They could obviously string it out until the FTPA kicks in, but that would be too damaging for them.

Yeah. It's a knotty problem. I can't see a way to nullify it. Earliest election date is now December 10th (I think). And there's an issue with holding it later than that before Christmas as the polling stations (in schools) won't be available because of school exams. Which pushes it into the new year. And then it gets really squeaky.

Zubeneschamali

Akrasia wrote: »

if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

Imagine you are trading in your car for a new one, and the deal is taking more time than you allowed for it (even though everyone warned you it would). So you go out to your current car and break a few windows.

That'll show the salesman you mean business!

That's pretty much what deliberately leaving talks on the Future Relationship during the Transition Period would be like: disrupt trade by jumping to WTO rules so that you can start the same negotiation for a Free Trade Deal from a weaker position and under enormously more pressure to get the deal done. Mad stuff.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That's pretty much what deliberately leaving talks on the Future Relationship during the Transition Period would be like: disrupt trade by jumping to WTO rules so that you can start the same negotiation for a Free Trade Deal from a weaker position and under enormously more pressure to get the deal done. Mad stuff.

And as an illustration, I saw a tweet the other day stating that Canada had pretty much decided that there wa no point in entering a FTA with the UK as the UK's zero-tariff schedule gave them all they needed anyway.

Russman

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. It's a knotty problem. I can't see a way to nullify it. Earliest election date is now December 10th (I think). And there's an issue with holding it later than that before Christmas as the polling stations (in schools) won't be available because of school exams. Which pushes it into the new year. And then it gets really squeaky.

Absolutely. Does the HoC stop sitting once an election is called ? Presumably if an election is called shortly the house won't have time to scrutinise and pass the required legislation for the WA/WAB, or will it ?
I think they're definitely going to need a longer or another extension come January, especially if the election isn't held until mid Jan - whatever new government is returned will need the time.

Its all a bit mad Ted !

Zubeneschamali

Russman wrote: »

I think they're definitely going to need a longer or another extension come January, especially if the election isn't held until mid Jan

The EU should give them an extension til the end of 2020, the whole transition period, with the same Leave Any Time, Please, Just Leave clause.

We all know they'll still be arguing in a years time whether they get into the Transition period or not, and will still be threatening themselves with No Deal, might as well postpone the cliff edge until then and just have one big cliff.

Joe_ Public

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU should give them an extension til the end of 2020, the whole transition period, with the same Leave Any Time, Please, Just Leave clause.

We all know they'll still be arguing in a years time whether they get into the Transition period or not, and will still be threatening themselves with No Deal, might as well postpone the cliff edge until then and just have one big cliff.

Common sense, of course, but how much place does that have in any brexit debate? What'd happen is it would go back to house, mps would argue in favour while the other side would scream more angry accusations of "dither and delay" and quite possibly they would end up rejecting it, leaving them god knows where.

Tea Shock

prawnsambo wrote: »

And as an illustration, I saw a tweet the other day stating that Canada had pretty much decided that there wa no point in entering a FTA with the UK as the UK's zero-tariff schedule gave them all they needed anyway.

Many people have pointed out the absurdity of their stance for a long time - since even before the 2016 vote

For example, Pascal Lamy, former Director General of WTO - again, this was before the 2016 vote!

Danzy

prawnsambo wrote: »

There is also the danger of a no deal exit if an election is called and Johnson changes the date to after the new extension end date. That's what Labour are afraid of.

A no Deal Brexit would not even receive a majority in the ERG wing if the Tories, never mind the party overall or the commons. There is no reason to even imagine Johnson would allow it.



Corbyn and Starmer know that.

They are frightened of the result leaving them on the sideline wirh a smaller party and Johnson walking his deal through.

Joe_ Public

Alastair Burt on sky just now: "I think there should be a short extension, get the brexit deal done and then have a GE. That would be the most advantageous thing for the country."

That's a slip of the tongue, isnt it? When he said country, what he really meant to say was the conservative party.

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Alastair Burt on sky just now: "I think there should be a short extension, get the brexit deal done and then have a GE. That would be the most advantageous thing for the country."

That's a slip of the tongue, isnt it? When he said country, what he really meant to say was the conservative party.

The public will agree, the deal passed gives stability, ends uncertainty, allows movement on other issues.

The ideal situation for Brussels and Dublin is to have the deal passed as soon as possible.

Zubeneschamali

Danzy wrote: »

A no Deal Brexit would not even receive a majority in the ERG wing if the Tories, never mind the party overall or the commons. There is no reason to even imagine Johnson would allow it.

Allow it? What exactly is he going to do about it if the EU say No to his extension request?

The only way to avoid it at this stage is to revoke A50.

Which shows how dangerous the whole "Keep No Deal on the table as a bluff" policy has been.

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU should give them an extension til the end of 2020, the whole transition period, with the same Leave Any Time, Please, Just Leave clause.

We all know they'll still be arguing in a years time whether they get into the Transition period or not, and will still be threatening themselves with No Deal, might as well postpone the cliff edge until then and just have one big cliff.

I haven't thought about this at all but I've seen it mooted. Just give them an endless extension where if they go past certain dates, they have to fulfil whatever EU political things are needed at that point, with a notice period once they finally do leave.

The blame has been well and truly shifted. Let them argue amongst themselves and let the EU and Ireland get on with political issues that have been neglected.

Zubeneschamali

Danzy wrote: »

The ideal situation for Brussels and Dublin is to have the deal passed as soon as possible.

No, a referendum followed by Revoke and Remain is best for everyone.

But obviously the EU and Ireland can't say that too loudly.

The WA is better than No Deal, but it is still bad all round - worse for the UK than for us, but a 10 year recession in a major trading partner is not going to improve our economy, and No Deal tariffs and a possible recession here is still on the cards beginning January 2021 even if the WA is ratified now.

LeinsterDub

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, a referendum followed by Revoke and Remain is best for everyone.

But obviously the EU and Ireland can't say that too loudly.

The WA is better than No Deal, but it is still bad all round - worse for the UK than for us, but a 10 year recession in a major trading partner is not going to improve our economy, and No Deal tariffs and a possible recession here is still on the cards beginning January 2021 even if the WA is ratified now.

The EU have been saying that extremely loudly

Jean Claude Juncker wrote:

I am happy about the deal but I am sad about Brexit

jimmycrackcorm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, a referendum followed by Revoke and Remain is best for everyone.

It's actually not because the car is out of the bag for brexiteers. Unless they actually get to experience real brexit and the actual consequences, there will always be division in British society and it would enivitably come back.

At the core of brexit is a feeling of English superiority. Immigrants come here but we're ex-pats abroad. So they really do need a period out in the wilderness to get over that.

For us, as long as the NI conundrum is solved, it's the best we can hope for.

Zubeneschamali

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's actually not because the car is out of the bag for brexiteers. Unless they actually get to experience real brexit and the actual consequences, there will always be division in British society and it would enivitably come back.

Yes, but that is a problem for the UK, not for Ireland or the EU.

For us, the problem is not division and political chaos in the UK, it is Brexit itself. If that never happens and the chaos goes on forever, we don't really care.

Zubeneschamali

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The EU have been saying that extremely loudly

Well, no, they haven't. They have said quietly that they regret Brexit, but are always careful to say it is up to the UK to decide.

They could get tough, and say no more extensions, revoke A50 or leave with No Deal. They could say extension, but only if you hold a referendum with Remain on the ballot.

They could loudly denounce the Tories continuing nonsense, and lay out a timetable for exactly what is needed, week by week, for any extension with No Deal expulsion for non-compliance.

But they are the nice, cuddly EU and will not do any of those things. Mind you, once the UK are out and are looking for a Free Trade Deal, the gloves will be off and the cuddly EU will be nowhere to be seen.

farmchoice

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's actually not because the car is out of the bag for brexiteers. Unless they actually get to experience real brexit and the actual consequences, there will always be division in British society and it would enivitably come back.

At the core of brexit is a feeling of English superiority. Immigrants come here but we're ex-pats abroad. So they really do need a period out in the wilderness to get over that.

For us, as long as the NI conundrum is solved, it's the best we can hope for.

its a valid point but i disagree. my fear is that if they they leave and subsequently find themselves up the creek as they inevitably will it will not lead to a period of self reflection. as opposed to seeing the error of their ways they will do exactly what they are doing now, blame everyone but themselves.
only next time it will be much worse because as opposed to just wishing for a return to an imaginary past they will actually be in some pretty dire straights.
it might be an exaggeration but the big difference between the UK today and Germany in the early 30's is that the Germans really did have something to complain about, for now the Brits dont, but following this madness they almost certainly will.

MassINeverHad

The longer the debate about the deal goes on the more the dup are going to kick up.

The deal is on thin ground. I hope it passes at some point as it seems to be our best option.

robinph

Article 50 needs a complete rewriting as soon as this is over so that it can deal with the reality of how it is actually done, until then though the EU could do with just making the exit date to be the end of the month that the UK gets themselves in order, add a fee onto the UK to pay to keep Tusk in his job until it's all over, and then the EU otherwise ignores the UK.

If it takes the UK another 5 years to figure out what they want then so be it, the EU could do without putting deadlines on things though for now as that just means the Tories will faff about wasting time until the month before the deadline and then complain about not having enough time. Remove that end date and make the UK figure it out.

Leroy42

robinph wrote: »

Article 50 needs a complete rewriting as soon as this is over so that it can deal with the reality of how it is actually done, until then though the EU could do with just making the exit date to be the end of the month that the UK gets themselves in order, add a fee onto the UK to pay to keep Tusk in his job until it's all over, and then the EU otherwise ignores the UK.

If it takes the UK another 5 years to figure out what they want then so be it, the EU could do without putting deadlines on things though for now as that just means the Tories will faff about wasting time until the month before the deadline and then complain about not having enough time. Remove that end date and make the UK figure it out.

The deadline written in A50 is at the very core of why the EU hold the cards. Remove the end date, as is shown by the extensions, simply removes the need for a decision whilst allowing them to continue to threaten to leave.

The EU should just give them an indefinite extension. Once the HOC actually votes through, whether it be the deal they've been offered, no deal, or revoke, they give the EU a months notice they're leaving.
All this deadline stuff is utter nonsense. Just give them a take it or leave it option, but stop crying to us looking for extensions because you can't get your house in order.

The EU must have plans for all 3 situations at this stage.

There's a lot more work need to happen in the EU and Brexit is taking a lot of time and energy away from other policies.