Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

tuxy · 22-10-2019 10:01PM

So Boris will want a long enough extension that there is no fear of a no deal brexit and labour can no longer hide from a GE under those grounds.
Then in a few months there will be a new unstable government that barely has a majority and we are in the exact same place again.
I think an extension that is a few years long is needed.

SeaBreezes · 22-10-2019 10:08PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

That is just totally surreal.

Ha. There was civil war in Ireland after that, over that same piece of paper.

Joe_ Public · 22-10-2019 10:10PM

GM228 wrote: »

That was the opinion of the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in the French Parliament earlier today (not the French president) before the events in the HoC and before Tusk's recommendation.

https://twitter.com/LCP/status/1186652125813792769?s=19

You had macron coming out fairly strongly against an extension before saturdays vote as well. May well be their honest views, but i'm not sure its all completely accidental timing. They are clearly trying to influence the votes, and giving Johnson every assistance they can.

Danzy · 22-10-2019 10:17PM

Enzokk wrote: »

This is an interesting tweet,

https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1186594060234039302?s=20

So the EU will not hasten the UK in making a decision, it is up to the PM to get his deal through.

As for the votes tonight, Johnson and No.10 has again been shown up and the likes of Kuenssberg that parroted the news that if they would lose the vote program motion they would pull the bill has been shown up for the propaganda machines they are being used for.

As for No.10 claiming this was a vote for his deal, it is this kind of dishonesty that makes my blood boil. Yes there were votes to just get it done but others were to get it to the stage where they could add amendments to the bill as well. It is dishonest, in fact it is lying, to claim this is a vote for his deal. But what do you expect of a liar and cheat running the country.

I am really concerned for the UK, even if we are relatively shielded from the effect of Brexit with the deal we have agreed, but the ordinary person who has been led astray by liars who will suffer the most. It is not fair that these people should suffer because MPs are too freaking lazy to read the bill or are tired of Brexit. They should not suffer because the millionaires in government will be fine and their friends will make a killing from deregulation.

At the end of the day we will suffer as well if the UK suffers long term. They are still an important partner of ours and we should want to see them as strong as possible, but they are making it very hard to root for them to turn this doomed ship around.

Who is Terry Reinkte in the greater scheme of things.

Boris Johnson will be congratulated tomorrow by Brussels for this first vote.

What type or duration of extension he needs will be accommodated.

eagle eye · 22-10-2019 10:18PM

briany wrote:

You know what they say - if you let bullies know they're getting to you, they'll only get worse. If Farage senses he can annoy EU leaders into cutting the cord, he's only going to act more degenerate.

There are lots of deservedly unkind things said about Johnson and Farage but the word degenerate should never be used.
Just because he wants to leave the EU doesn't make the man a degenerate. Just because he tells lies like pretty much every other politician doesn't make him a degenerate either.
I hope his career ends shortly, no harm on saying things like that but let's keep it real.

Danzy · 22-10-2019 10:19PM

liamtech wrote: »

SKy saying France only supports short technical extension, perhaps even only a few days - not supporting longer extension

They are saying that to put pressure on MPs to get it over the line as quickly as possible.

Enzokk · 22-10-2019 10:22PM

eagle eye wrote: »

There are lots of deservedly unkind things said about Johnson and Farage but the word degenerate should never be used.
Just because he wants to leave the EU doesn't make the man a degenerate. Just because he tells lies like pretty much every other politician doesn't make him a degenerate either.
I hope his career ends shortly, no harm on saying things like that but let's keep it real.

Can you list me the lies Corbyn has told in his political career? How about Keir Starmer? Seeing that every other politician lies like Johnson, I am sure you would quickly be able to rustle up a list of their lies like, lie in front of the bulldozers to prevent a 3rd runway.

Joe_ Public · 22-10-2019 10:22PM

Danzy wrote: »

Who is Terry Reinkte in the greater scheme of things.

Boris Johnson will be congratulated tomorrow by Brussels for this first vote.

What type or duration of extension he needs will be accommodated.

You write that last sentence as if being granted an extension ("i'll die in a ditch before i ask for one") is another great triumph for the glorious leader. I'm not at all convinced to be honest.

Enzokk · 22-10-2019 10:22PM

Danzy wrote: »

They are saying that to put pressure on MPs to get it over the line as quickly as possible.

Yeah, France will kick up a fuss about an extension but like with the May extensions they will agree to it reluctantly.

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 10:25PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

A bills stages through the Houses:

HoC
1st reading
2nd reading
Committee stage
Report stage
3rd reading

HoL
1st reading
2nd reading
Committee stage
Report stage
3rd reading

Royal Assent.

BBC ran a timeline on the stages with the 3 day timetable. It would have been in the HOL and done by Friday.

Enzokk · 22-10-2019 10:26PM

Danzy wrote: »

Who is Terry Reinkte in the greater scheme of things.

Boris Johnson will be congratulated tomorrow by Brussels for this first vote.

What type or duration of extension he needs will be accommodated.

I don't know but I posted it to provide some balance to the thoughts that the EU was getting tired of the UK and Brexit. This is a contrary view and not the only one that they will give the UK the time it needs to find out what it wants. She also helpfully provided a solution to a yes/no question which the brilliant minds at the UK want to avoid.

It is amazing to me that consensus is that a general election that has a multitude of factors determining the result is thought to be the solution to Brexit which has a simple yes/no question at the heart of it.

briany · 22-10-2019 10:26PM

eagle eye wrote: »

There are lots of deservedly unkind things said about Johnson and Farage but the word degenerate should never be used.
Just because he wants to leave the EU doesn't make the man a degenerate. Just because he tells lies like pretty much every other politician doesn't make him a degenerate either.
I hope his career ends shortly, no harm on saying things like that but let's keep it real.

I was referring to his penchant for being disruptive and disrespectful in the EU parliament. Something that he and his Brexit party (formerly UKIP) cronies are well-known for. He thinks he's in the House of Commons with the heckling and cat-calling his lot do, but the HoC it is not. You could respect Farage if he was delivering his points in a more civilised manner, but now I really think he's going to double-down on his efforts to annoy everyone in the EUP, especially Verhofstadt.

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 10:27PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Yeah, France will kick up a fuss about an extension but like with the May extensions they will agree to it reluctantly.

I think they'll seek clarification from Boris on what's needed. He doesn't care because whatever it is it will have been an EU decision and not his.

SeaBreezes · 22-10-2019 10:34PM

eagle eye wrote: »

There are lots of deservedly unkind things said about Johnson and Farage but the word degenerate should never be used.
Just because he wants to leave the EU doesn't make the man a degenerate. Just because he tells lies like pretty much every other politician doesn't make him a degenerate either.
I hope his career ends shortly, no harm on saying things like that but let's keep it real.

degenerate
adjective
/dɪˈdʒɛn(ə)rət/
1.
having lost the physical, mental, or moral qualities considered normal and desirable...

If the hat fits....

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 10:35PM

joe40 wrote: »

I thought I had a handle on this Brexit but must admit now I'm confused and apologies if this stupid but is this where we are now?
The deal has been passed but not the timetable.
MPs have supported the deal but then want to add amendment s which will change the deal they have supported. So they're not really supporting the deal. Is that what is happening now or have I got it all wrong?

They voted for the second stage, so it can go forward for amendment and debate but they rejected the 3 day timetable. For now yes it is true they are supporting the deal but we can expect amendments. The next step will probably be Boris consulting the EU on an extension so they can debate and amend and so he can blame the EU for Britain not leaving next week.

FrancieBrady · 22-10-2019 10:43PM

According to Newsnight Boris is on the phone tonight to EU telling them that he thinks he can get deal over the line and he only needs a few days extension.

briany · 22-10-2019 10:44PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They voted for the second stage, so it can go forward for amendment and debate but they rejected the 3 day timetable. For now yes it is true they are supporting the deal but we can expect amendments. The next step will probably be Boris consulting the EU on an extension so they can debate and amend and so he can blame the EU for Britain not leaving next week.

What are the likely amendments to the deal, and which have the best chance of actually being tacked on? The 2nd ref is one that's being currently mooted, but when it comes down to it, I don't see that getting the numbers. The independent Conservatives will see to that, I'd say.

Danzy · 22-10-2019 10:45PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You write that last sentence as if being granted an extension ("i'll die in a ditch before i ask for one") is another great triumph for the glorious leader. I'm not at all convinced to be honest.

No it's not, he knows, we all know that Brussels will grant him whatever to get the win.

It's their deal as much as his.

briany · 22-10-2019 10:46PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newsnight Boris is on the phone tonight to EU telling them that he thinks he can get deal over the line and he only needs a few days extension.

EU: ....and what if you don't, Boris?

Boris: But I will!

EU: But what if you don't?

Boris: But I will!

Repeat until the EU hangs up.

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 10:48PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know but I posted it to provide some balance to the thoughts that the EU was getting tired of the UK and Brexit. This is a contrary view and not the only one that they will give the UK the time it needs to find out what it wants. She also helpfully provided a solution to a yes/no question which the brilliant minds at the UK want to avoid.

It is amazing to me that consensus is that a general election that has a multitude of factors determining the result is thought to be the solution to Brexit which has a simple yes/no question at the heart of it.

Mostly because Boris looks like he'll win with a majority, thus making it easier to pass anything. This process is like a free shot and one it actually seems, against all odds, that he can make a success. He'll still have an election victory to come one way or another.

Water John · 22-10-2019 10:51PM

Once he has the 3 month Flexextension, he'll go for a GE.
He won't work with a minority.

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 10:52PM

briany wrote: »

What are the likely amendments to the deal, and which have the best chance of actually being tacked on? The 2nd ref is one that's being currently mooted, but when it comes down to it, I don't see that getting the numbers. The independent Conservatives will see to that, I'd say.

Second ref is one and I agree it will probably fail. Otherwise who knows what will emerge and what will have a chance of success. I think the message of the timetable vote is that they want time to review it properly.

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 10:55PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newsnight Boris is on the phone tonight to EU telling them that he thinks he can get deal over the line and he only needs a few days extension.

The idea of that I would say is to take control of the timetable again. 2 weeks gives them nearly 3 weeks of debate. It doesn't suit him to get the full 3 months if he can avoid it.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-10-2019 10:57PM

Water John wrote: »

Once he has the 3 month Flexextension, he'll go for a GE.
He won't work with a minority.

This is the thing. The delays are pointless.

The Tories are on their way to a thumping majority anyway according to the polls.

They will have no problem getting the deal through then.

prawnsambo · 22-10-2019 11:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Mostly because Boris looks like he'll win with a majority, thus making it easier to pass anything. This process is like a free shot and one it actually seems, against all odds, that he can make a success. He'll still have an election victory to come one way or another.

I'm not sure that's a given. Assuming the SNP and the LibDems match their best showings (which they should - give or take), that leaves about 550 seats up for grabs. Of those, another 30 or so will go to NI, independents and Plaid. The Tories need 325 (roughly) to get a majority. Which means Labour will only come out with around the 200 mark. That just isn't likely.

briany · 22-10-2019 11:04PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Tories are on their way to a thumping majority anyway according to the polls.

I'm not really in favour of the UK leaving the EU, but you'd have to say that if the Tories run on a Brexit platform and get a healthy majority, then there must be a majority for Leave among the electorate.

A Dub in Glasgo · 22-10-2019 11:04PM

The EU will grant the extension that was requested (up to end of Jan 2020) with the caveat that the extension falls if the deal is ratified before then

ancapailldorcha · 22-10-2019 11:05PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure that's a given. Assuming the SNP and the LibDems match their best showings (which they should - give or take), that leaves about 550 seats up for grabs. Of those, another 30 or so will go to NI, independents and Plaid. The Tories need 325 (roughly) to get a majority. Which means Labour will only come out with around the 200 mark. That just isn't likely.

Agreed.

The SNP look set to claw back Ruth Davidson's gains in Scotland in 2017. Leaving Wales and NI out of it, I just don't see where Johnson gets a winning vote from. He can't run on the Economy which is where the Conservatives are usually strong. Corbyn might be seen as being even weaker but at best Johnson wins a tiny majority similar to Cameron in 2015 and we move further away from a resolution of this whole saga.

A Dub in Glasgo · 22-10-2019 11:05PM

briany wrote: »

I'm not really in favour of the UK leaving the EU, but you'd have to say that if the Tories run on a Brexit platform and get a healthy majority, then there must be a majority for Leave among the electorate.

Not true - the Tories could get a thumping majority on as little as 37% of the vote due to FPTP

Kermit.de.frog · 22-10-2019 11:06PM

briany wrote: »

I'm not really in favour of the UK leaving the EU, but you'd have to say that if the Tories run on a Brexit platform and get a healthy majority, then there must be a majority for Leave among the electorate.

There will also be a cohort you voted remain but accept the result and are sick and tired of the games.

It's not all black/white leave/remain...there is a grey area to be exploited too.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Comments