Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

fash · 05-10-2019 01:14AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah. However, you have to assume that when the sh1t hits the fan then people know which side their bread is buttered on.

which leaves you with what? A sh1t sandwich?
Who gets to eat it I wonder? Fingers crossed it's not us...

BonnieSituation · 05-10-2019 01:28AM

Has anyone said why Hungary were meeting with Johnson?

volchitsa · 05-10-2019 08:25AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

They crashout, UK implodes, comes begging for a trade deal, Ireland (now that Hungary set precedent) keeps vetoing until trade deal endsup having same parameters as wa (or better must include a border poll)

Must say, I like the sound of that - a taste of their own medicine sounds eminently pleasing to me. I suspect we'll be too nice for that though, and won't push our advantage as far as it might go. Still, I do hope you're right.

An Ciarraioch · 05-10-2019 08:58AM

ITV saying that the shortage of EU-based seasonal migrants is affecting British fruit harvests, and there aren't enough non-EU workers arriving to make up the shortfall:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

CelticRambler · 05-10-2019 09:13AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

ITV saying that the shortage of EU-based seasonal migrants is affecting British fruit harvests, and there aren't enough non-EU workers arriving to make up the shortfall

Strange that: the experts told us this would happen, and we all know experts are always wrong ... :rolleyes:

I love Defra's apparent disconnect from reality, but if this mentality is endemic in the higher levels of the rest of the civil service, one would have question the robustness of their no-deal preparations.

A Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) spokesperson told us: “EU citizens can continue to come to the UK for work in 2019 and 2020, regardless of whether the UK reaches a deal with the EU.

Just because we can, doesn't mean we will! 'Specially when you've branded us as benefit-sponging parasites, and are sending letters to long-term tax-paying residents telling the they're no longer welcome.

VinLieger · 05-10-2019 09:14AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

ITV saying that the shortage of EU-based seasonal migrants is affecting British fruit harvests, and there aren't enough non-EU workers arriving to make up the shortfall:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

Its kind of hilarious, there goes the whole british jobs for british people argument, none of them want to do this kind of stuff and the problem was forewarned at least 2 years ago....

Igotadose · 05-10-2019 09:23AM

An excellent piece by Tony Connelly capturing the Brexit timeline from after the referendum till today. Nothing surprising in it, but good in-depth discussion of the current UK proposal.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/1005/1081246-tony-connelly-brexit/

Hurrache · 05-10-2019 09:28AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Has anyone said why Hungary were meeting with Johnson?

Posted a few posts back, they said they were discussing their border proposals.

54and56 · 05-10-2019 09:34AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Its kind of hilarious, there goes the whole british jobs for british people argument, none of them want to do this kind of stuff and the problem was forewarned at least 2 years ago....

If we end up with a no deal then within 3 months there'll be plenty of job losses in Britain which will create a new supply of fruit pickers.

lawred2 · 05-10-2019 10:11AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

ITV saying that the shortage of EU-based seasonal migrants is affecting British fruit harvests, and there aren't enough non-EU workers arriving to make up the shortfall:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

Oh well. Noone cares. You make your own bed.

lawred2 · 05-10-2019 10:13AM

54and56 wrote: »

If we end up with a no deal then within 3 months there'll be plenty of job losses in Britain which will create a new supply of fruit pickers.

And when they go full Tory and strip benefits even further, maybe even go for food vouchers for a day's work in the fields, they will see themselves through it. Blitz spirit and all that.

Professor Moriarty · 05-10-2019 10:14AM

54and56 wrote: »

If we end up with a no deal then within 3 months there'll be plenty of job losses in Britain which will create a new supply of fruit pickers.

Unfortunately, we'll also have lots of people we can send over.

reslfj · 05-10-2019 10:54AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

They crashout, UK implodes, comes begging for a trade deal, Ireland (now that Hungary set precedent) keeps vetoing until trade deal endsup having same parameters as wa (or better must include a border poll)

No need for an Irish veto here.

Just ordinary EU style trade negotiation. This is the adult world where the EU's 445 mill citizens vs the UK's 67 mill will force the smaller UK to give in in about 6 out of 7 times.

The WA text - as is, but without the transition periods - must be ratified by the UK before any negotiations can even begin.

Lars

PS! Voting for a UI is not an EU matter, but follows from the GFA text.

Hurrache · 05-10-2019 11:04AM

Great article in The Guardian
[url] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/04/peace-ireland-brexit-boris-johnson-good-friday-agreement[/url]

ancapailldorcha · 05-10-2019 11:10AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Oh well. Noone cares. You make your own bed.

Mod: Less of this please.

A Shropshire Lad · 05-10-2019 11:14AM

I think Johnsons proposal is pretty bad, but the real cherry on top is offering the Stormont assembley a veto every term. A potential consititutional crisis every four years.

In fact, Stormont hasnt sat in nearly 3 years I believe. Its currently being let out for weddings !

Leroy42 · 05-10-2019 11:23AM

And the DUP show they are more than happy to tear up an international agreement.

https://twitter.com/JeanneBartram/status/1180223689008267264?s=09

Why should anyone think they will adhere to any vote in the future?

FrancieBrady · 05-10-2019 11:29AM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

I think Johnsons proposal is pretty bad, but the real cherry on top is offering the Stormont assembley a veto every term. A potential consititutional crisis every four years.

In fact, Stormont hasnt sat in nearly 3 years I believe. Its currently being let out for weddings !

The thing is it wouldn't just be a constitutional crisis for them, it would also dominate politics here.

Leroy42 · 05-10-2019 11:42AM

Yeah, we would be facing a border crisis pretty much continuously. Everytime Dublin tried to interact with NI, DUP would simply say they'll leave the deal unless Dublin backs off.

Professor Moriarty · 05-10-2019 11:44AM

As it happens, the Northern Secretary seemed to suggest yesterday that they would be willing to get rid of the DUP veto.

BonnieSituation · 05-10-2019 11:51AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

And the DUP show they are more than happy to tear up an international agreement.

https://twitter.com/JeanneBartram/status/1180223689008267264?s=09

Why should anyone think they will adhere to any vote in the future?

Just to get that link embedded/live. Twitter search is a shambles.

BonnieSituation · 05-10-2019 11:53AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As it happens, the Northern Secretary seemed to suggest yesterday that they would be willing to get rid of the DUP veto.

You can't unilaterally decide to change a pivotal part of the GFA. Even if you don't like it.

maebee · 05-10-2019 12:00PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Great article in The Guardian
[url] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/04/peace-ireland-brexit-boris-johnson-good-friday-agreement[/url]

Thanks for this Hurrache. That's got to be the best Brexit article written in any UK paper since this sorry mess began.

Professor Moriarty · 05-10-2019 12:00PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You can't unilaterally decide to change a pivotal part of the GFA. Even if you don't like it.

Coveney has already dismissed it as being pointless anyway.

BonnieSituation · 05-10-2019 12:07PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Coveney has already dismissed it as being pointless anyway.

Pointless and impossible.

The Brits constantly fly these kites to create normalisation. So watch as "veto" becomes this week's watchword.

maebee · 05-10-2019 12:15PM

https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2018/10/02/news/arlene-foster-says-good-friday-agreement-not-sacrosanct-as-she-backs-boris-johnson-s-brexit-plan-1447683/

Arlene needs her head examined if she thinks the GFA can be revisited and amended in any way. It's unforgivable that she should say it's 'not sacrosanct". The world, the USA in particular, is watching you Arlene.

Capt'n Midnight · 05-10-2019 12:16PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Strange that: the experts told us this would happen, and we all know experts are always wrong ... :rolleyes:

I love Defra's apparent disconnect from reality, but if this mentality is endemic in the higher levels of the rest of the civil service, one would have question the robustness of their no-deal preparations.

Just because we can, doesn't mean we will! 'Specially when you've branded us as benefit-sponging parasites, and are sending letters to long-term tax-paying residents telling the they're no longer welcome.

There's also the issue of Sterling being worth a lot less than it used to be.

And the other countries economies kept growing while the UK stagnates.

Nett migration from Poland has stopped.

An Ciarraioch · 05-10-2019 12:43PM

maebee wrote: »

Thanks for this Hurrache. That's got to be the best Brexit article written in any UK paper since this sorry mess began.

Indeed, the Tánaiste has retweeted it himself.

GM228 · 05-10-2019 12:52PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

GM228 wrote: »

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Can the EU grant them an extension of 6 months on condition they have a referendum?

No, they can't interfere with domestic matters.

They very much can. They can say no to an extension if they decide that's the best course of action. They have said in the past, and they are saying now also, that there should be a 'good reason' for an extension.

Look at the point I was referring to in relation to the EU making demands that the UK hold a referendum, the EU absolutely can not interfere with purely domestic matters, nor can it for example simply decide to impose an extension as it sees fit, there must be unilateral agreement.

The EU can't encroach on a member states sovereignty and force it to do something which is not in contradiction of community law, such an action is beyond the competence of community law.

Leroy42 · 05-10-2019 12:57PM

maebee wrote: »

https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2018/10/02/news/arlene-foster-says-good-friday-agreement-not-sacrosanct-as-she-backs-boris-johnson-s-brexit-plan-1447683/

Arlene needs her head examined if she thinks the GFA can be revisited and amended in any way. It's unforgivable that she should say it's 'not sacrosanct". The world, the USA in particular, is watching you Arlene.

You say it can't but she has the full backing of HMG behind her. They are more than happy to tear up, or more correctly break down, the GFA in order to get the bigger prize of Brexit.

The UK, of which NI is inconsequential, wants out and Johnson and his ilk have persuaded many that any price is worth paying to achieve that.

I don't have the link but Adam Boultan on Sky News had an interview where the person basically said that pain will always be necessary. We have also had the change in line the last few weeks from HMG that change in NI was always a necessary part of Brexit and Ireland just has to get used to it.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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