Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo · 04-10-2019 6:57pm

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

More chance of France rejecting an extension than Hungary. Didn't Macron have to be talked around to the last extension?

Can see the EU attaching harsh conditions to any extension; perhaps a minimum extension of 12 months, a second referendum, or an immediate GE. Perhaps Boris is banking on those conditions being unpalatable for parliament.

The EU don't do it like that. All they ask for is a good reason. Telling the UK what the reason must be would be overstepping. They can give examples of course.

Spanish Eyes · 04-10-2019 7:03pm

Whilst I am of course on the remain side for UK, it is not that difficult to see that the whole Brexit issue is a total farce.

I am sorry to say it, but it plays to one cohort only, and we all know who they are now.

There are plenty of Leavers who are intelligent and thoughtful, but the absolutism of Hard Brexit/No Deal is not palatable to them.

So what have we left now, ok the Tories v Brexit Party. An kind of internal electoral struggle amongst the lowest common denominators for an end that is unachievable and will be a disaster for their country and their neighbours too.

It is doomed to fail if they do not meet the expectations of the middle ground, and it was ever thus.

Scoondal · 04-10-2019 7:04pm

If Hungary vetos a Brexit extension ... then what ?

The high horse brigade · 04-10-2019 7:07pm

Can the EU grant them an extension of 6 months on condition they have a referendum?

FrancieBrady · 04-10-2019 7:08pm

Scoondal wrote: »

If Hungary vetos a Brexit extension ... then what ?

They crash out or Parliament finds a way to revoke the whole sorry mess.

Spanish Eyes · 04-10-2019 7:13pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They crash out or Parliament finds a way to revoke the whole sorry mess.

And Hungary will be expected to take in lots more refugees or go to feck for cohesion funding. I think that is decided by EU members in Council, not sure, but I suspect there is some EU wide voting mechanism for this.

Can the EU evict a member? LOL, if so, UK should have tried that first.

GM228 · 04-10-2019 7:16pm

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Can the EU grant them an extension of 6 months on condition they have a referendum?

No, they can't interfere with domestic matters.

GM228 · 04-10-2019 7:17pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can the EU evict a member?

No, there is no provision in any of the EU treaties for such, but, it is possible to suspend representation and voting rights in certain circumstances.

Although there is some legal theory that International Law could be used to do such, but the EU as an institution is bound by EU treaties, not international treaties.

J Mysterio · 04-10-2019 7:24pm

GM228 wrote: »

No, they can't interfere with domestic matters.

They very much can. They can say no to an extension if they decide that's the best course of action. They have said in the past, and they are saying now also, that there should be a 'good reason' for an extension.

Spanish Eyes · 04-10-2019 7:25pm

GM228 wrote: »

No, there is no provision in any of the EU treaties for such, but, it is possible to suspend representation and voting rights in certain circumstances.

Although there is some legal theory that International Law could be used to do such, but the EU as an institution is bound by EU treaties, not international treaties.

I think Orban is tilting at EU windmills. But my guess is he will try to get away with as much as he can whilst still maintaining funding and so on. I very much doubt he will take the Queen's shilling from UK to veto either. There would be uproar in the EU and he would be a pariah. If he isn't sailing close enough to the wind there already as it is.

TBH it sounds like desperation from UK now.

Tell me how · 04-10-2019 7:29pm

I remember when David Davis said before the referendum that once it was held, and the UK voted to leave, UK government ministers wouldn't be rushing to call Brussels first, they would, instead, be arranging pleading meetings with the Hungarian foreign minister.

Scoondal · 04-10-2019 7:38pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think Orban is tilting at EU windmills. But my guess is he will try to get away with as much as he can whilst still maintaining funding and so on. I very much doubt he will take the Queen's shilling from UK to veto either. There would be uproar in the EU and he would be a pariah. If he isn't sailing close enough to the wind there already as it is.

TBH it sounds like desperation from UK now.

Hungary has not been a member of EU for a long time. It seems to me that Hungary wants all the benefits of EU membership, but none of the responsibilities of EU membership.
EU does not need such countries.

FrancieBrady · 04-10-2019 7:40pm

At this stage it wouldn't surprise me if a few others in the EU aren't bribing somebody to veto it and end this.

dePeatrick · 04-10-2019 7:46pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the whole world 'seen' the Hungarians entering No. 10 you can be damn sure it is because Johnson wants the world to think that they might veto and extension.

The UK are playing this oldschool like it was the 1950's and scripted by John Lé Carre, with feints and shadowboxing and manipulation going down all over the shop.

Absolutely, they are hyper Trolls, they have money and power and they ain't kiddin' Old sleight of hand trick, distract the eye from what you are doing...So when they signal...look the other way

lawred2 · 04-10-2019 7:56pm

Scoondal wrote: »

If Hungary vetos a Brexit extension ... then what ?

Without good and just cause then Hungary could expect to be persona non grata within the EU then...

They are not going to do anything to risk the funding tap

Roger_007 · 04-10-2019 8:01pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

At this stage it wouldn't surprise me if a few others in the EU aren't bribing somebody to veto it and end this.

The UK had a referendum, they voted to leave, they invoked Art 50, they were offered a generous exit deal, they refused it.
I'm amazed that at least some members of the EU haven't come out publicly and stated that the UK should just go and have done with it. The UK has caused nothing but turmoil in the EU for the last three years and they were never fully committed members anyway.
Remain is not an option at this stage. I would guess that the real opinion in many member states is 'just go, and good riddance'.

Stop moaning ffs · 04-10-2019 8:04pm

I hate the way the Cummings has established himself in our minds as the devious evil mastermind

But looking at the very obvious photo op of the Hungarians leaving cabinet buildings yesterday does really feel like we’re meant to be looking at that hand and ball and not what is actually happening in the other.

Brexit is utterly mad, but a long running train of astonishing events numbs you to that in time.

It looks like something else is cooking and nobody has smelled it out yet.

Scoondal · 04-10-2019 8:05pm

lawred2 wrote: »

Without good and just cause then Hungary could expect to be persona non grata within the EU then...

They are not going to do anything to risk the funding tap

Hungary has already rejected EU laws. They like the benefits of EU membership but ignore their obligations. It's disgusting. Have EU imposed fines on Hungary ?
Does Hungary know about the UN signed peace agreement in Northern Ireland ?
Probably not. Hungary is showing its ignorance to everyone now.

Zubeneschamali · 04-10-2019 8:05pm

The UK is legally allowed to revoke A50 and remain without even consulting the EU. It is the only way out of this mess, but they probably will have to have Remain win a referendum first.

dePeatrick · 04-10-2019 8:22pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think Orban is tilting at EU windmills. But my guess is he will try to get away with as much as he can whilst still maintaining funding and so on. I very much doubt he will take the Queen's shilling from UK to veto either. There would be uproar in the EU and he would be a pariah. If he isn't sailing close enough to the wind there already as it is.

TBH it sounds like desperation from UK now.

Im beginning to think it is reality TV for the masses...?

Kermit.de.frog · 04-10-2019 8:45pm

Insistence on Irish customs border means no basis for agreement and no weekend talks according to the EU

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/04/boris-johnson-brexit-plan-european-commission-no-grounds-weekend-negotiations

reslfj · 04-10-2019 8:52pm

Winters wrote: »

Hurrache wrote: »

Barclay tweeted this then. So why would they want to be discussing their 'solution' to the Irish border with Hungary?
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1179791926494715904

Hungary's experience in borders perhaps?

Just ask the Hungarians about the 'Treaty of Trianon'

Lars

PS! And you may ask them about auto production and the SM (internal market) too.

sondagefaux · 04-10-2019 8:55pm

GM228 wrote: »

No, they can't interfere with domestic matters.

If you were able to watch the joint press conference with Leo Varadkar and the Swedish prime minister, you would have seen the Swedish leader state that the European Council would be asking the UK why it wanted an extension.

If Johnson can't or won't answer, the EU27 may set out its conditions for granting an extension.

There's nothing in EU law to prevent the European Council for setting conditions on the grant of an extension.

The current extension until October 31st was conditional on the UK accepting the the current Withdrawal Agreement not be renegotiated unless the European Council agreed to do so.

So far, the European Council hasn't agreed to a renegotiation of the current Withdrawal Agreement, but it might do so at the upcoming meeting if the UK formally proposes that special arrangements apply only to Northern Ireland.

The European Council can set whatever conditions it likes for an extension.

The UK is free to reject those conditions at the cost of the extension.

The European Council could decide that the UK will initially get a short-term extension (until say the end of November) during which time its parliament must pass an act providing for a referendum to be held some time in the first 6 months of 2020 with Remain vs a Withdrawal Agreement (now Labour Party official policy, and likely to be supported by the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Lady Hermon, the Greens and some former Tory MPs,now either independents or part of the Change Whatever It's Called This Week Group) on the ballot paper.

If the act is passed by the end of November an extension until after the referendum could be granted.

A Shropshire Lad · 04-10-2019 8:56pm

I wonder what percentage of the British population is aware that Ireland is an independent soverign nation.

sondagefaux · 04-10-2019 8:57pm

Tell me how wrote: »

I remember when David Davis said before the referendum that once it was held, and the UK voted to leave, UK government ministers wouldn't be rushing to call Brussels first, they would, instead, be arranging pleading meetings with the Hungarian foreign minister.

The Hungarian goulash industry is putting fierce pressure on Orban to persuade the other EU leaders to give the Brits everything they want.

Frank Bullitt · 04-10-2019 9:00pm

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1179859826740011013

Another glorious moment captured in the Brexit circus. As David McWilliams has said, the DUP are great at missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

sondagefaux · 04-10-2019 9:01pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK is legally allowed to revoke A50 and remain without even consulting the EU. It is the only way out of this mess, but they probably will have to have Remain win a referendum first.

Strictly speaking there would be no legal requirement to hold a referendum in the UK in order to revoke its current notification of intent to leave the EU.

But it's very doubtful that the UK parliament would pass an act of parliament to revoke the notification, even if the European Council refused an extension and they had to choose within days between ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement as it stands, crashing out with No Deal and revoking.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-10-2019 9:06pm

The difference between Ireland and Northern Ireland is whether Dublin or London was making the big decisions.

Wales making noises too. In and of itself not a biggie, but it's all more pressure on the Union.

There will be a referendum on Welsh independence by 2030, Plaid Cymru's Adam Price has said.

The party leader claimed Wales could get £2bn extra as a European Union member in its own right.
...
"The UK as we know it could cease to exist in a short few years", he said.
...
"Westminster owes us twenty times that for the wealth that they stole. Northern Ireland deserves a New Deal absolutely, but surely that's right for Wales too."

murphaph · 04-10-2019 9:19pm

lawred2 wrote: »

Without good and just cause then Hungary could expect to be persona non grata within the EU then...

They are not going to do anything to risk the funding tap

If all it takes is a bribe from the Kremlin to the dictator then that is what will happen but parliament can still pass another law compelling the government to revoke A50 if it thinks Hungary has been manipulated to veto an extension.

I certainly wouldn't be overly surprised if Orban was being looked after for his veto.

Imreoir2 · 04-10-2019 9:21pm

blackcard wrote: »

What is the minimum extension that can be sought? Could Boris look for an extension of 1 day?

I don't think the UK get to decide how long an extension will be, once they ask for an extension the EU offers one for as long as they choose and the UK must accept or reject the offer.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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