Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

road_high · 05-10-2019 12:11am

jm08 wrote: »

Orban has form in letting the Tories and UKIP/Brexiteers down when it comes to where his best interests are. His party decided to stay in the European Peoples Party Group in the European Parliament even though the Conservative Party was leaving for another group. Then when the EPP were thinking of expelling Orban's party, Merkel's party decided it was better to keep your enemies close, so they are still in that grouping in the European Parliament which is where they want to be as its the most influential grouping in the EU. Orban likes to stir it up in the EU, but always manages to draw the line just short of going too far.

As they say the Hungarians know what side their bread is buttered on and there’s virtually nothing in it for them by supporting the British position bar a little trouble making for the EU- Orbans agenda is more about controlling his own borders . UK Hungarian trade and diplomatic relations are not exactly high priority stuff.

reslfj · 05-10-2019 12:20am

GM228 wrote: »

No, they can't interfere with domestic matters.

The EU27 can make any demand of the UK before extending. The UK can then accept or say 'No' and get an immediate 'No Deal' Brexit.

A demand for a GE or a second referendum are both very much domestic politics.

Lars

robindch · 05-10-2019 12:33am

Roger_007 wrote: »

So, that just confirms that Hungary is not going to veto the extension.

The Indo article is from September 19th while the Hungarians were seen going in and out of the Cabinet office yesterday. I can't imagine that the two sides were discussing England's chances in tomorrow's rugby match against Argentina.

On the other hand, noting that Hungary has learned much from Russia over the last few years, I'd imagine that Hungary is saying enough to Johnson so that Johnson can pretend, within the private toxicity of the Cabinet Office anyway, that Hungary is onside. Johnson is likely to continue to pretend this, to anybody prepared to believe him, for as long as it's not more convenient for him to pretend to believe something else - at which point, both sides are likely simply to walk away from whatever positions they might have attempted to signal earlier on.

fash · 05-10-2019 1:14am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah. However, you have to assume that when the sh1t hits the fan then people know which side their bread is buttered on.

which leaves you with what? A sh1t sandwich?
Who gets to eat it I wonder? Fingers crossed it's not us...

BonnieSituation · 05-10-2019 1:28am

Has anyone said why Hungary were meeting with Johnson?

volchitsa · 05-10-2019 8:25am

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

They crashout, UK implodes, comes begging for a trade deal, Ireland (now that Hungary set precedent) keeps vetoing until trade deal endsup having same parameters as wa (or better must include a border poll)

Must say, I like the sound of that - a taste of their own medicine sounds eminently pleasing to me. I suspect we'll be too nice for that though, and won't push our advantage as far as it might go. Still, I do hope you're right.

An Ciarraioch · 05-10-2019 8:58am

ITV saying that the shortage of EU-based seasonal migrants is affecting British fruit harvests, and there aren't enough non-EU workers arriving to make up the shortfall:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

CelticRambler · 05-10-2019 9:13am

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

ITV saying that the shortage of EU-based seasonal migrants is affecting British fruit harvests, and there aren't enough non-EU workers arriving to make up the shortfall

Strange that: the experts told us this would happen, and we all know experts are always wrong ... :rolleyes:

I love Defra's apparent disconnect from reality, but if this mentality is endemic in the higher levels of the rest of the civil service, one would have question the robustness of their no-deal preparations.

A Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) spokesperson told us: “EU citizens can continue to come to the UK for work in 2019 and 2020, regardless of whether the UK reaches a deal with the EU.

Just because we can, doesn't mean we will! 'Specially when you've branded us as benefit-sponging parasites, and are sending letters to long-term tax-paying residents telling the they're no longer welcome.

VinLieger · 05-10-2019 9:14am

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

ITV saying that the shortage of EU-based seasonal migrants is affecting British fruit harvests, and there aren't enough non-EU workers arriving to make up the shortfall:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

Its kind of hilarious, there goes the whole british jobs for british people argument, none of them want to do this kind of stuff and the problem was forewarned at least 2 years ago....

Igotadose · 05-10-2019 9:23am

An excellent piece by Tony Connelly capturing the Brexit timeline from after the referendum till today. Nothing surprising in it, but good in-depth discussion of the current UK proposal.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/1005/1081246-tony-connelly-brexit/

Hurrache · 05-10-2019 9:28am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Has anyone said why Hungary were meeting with Johnson?

Posted a few posts back, they said they were discussing their border proposals.

54and56 · 05-10-2019 9:34am

VinLieger wrote: »

Its kind of hilarious, there goes the whole british jobs for british people argument, none of them want to do this kind of stuff and the problem was forewarned at least 2 years ago....

If we end up with a no deal then within 3 months there'll be plenty of job losses in Britain which will create a new supply of fruit pickers.

lawred2 · 05-10-2019 10:11am

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

ITV saying that the shortage of EU-based seasonal migrants is affecting British fruit harvests, and there aren't enough non-EU workers arriving to make up the shortfall:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-04/tonnes-of-british-grown-fruit-wasted-over-shortages-of-eu-workers-amid-no-deal-brexit-fears/

Oh well. Noone cares. You make your own bed.

lawred2 · 05-10-2019 10:13am

54and56 wrote: »

If we end up with a no deal then within 3 months there'll be plenty of job losses in Britain which will create a new supply of fruit pickers.

And when they go full Tory and strip benefits even further, maybe even go for food vouchers for a day's work in the fields, they will see themselves through it. Blitz spirit and all that.

Professor Moriarty · 05-10-2019 10:14am

54and56 wrote: »

If we end up with a no deal then within 3 months there'll be plenty of job losses in Britain which will create a new supply of fruit pickers.

Unfortunately, we'll also have lots of people we can send over.

reslfj · 05-10-2019 10:54am

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

They crashout, UK implodes, comes begging for a trade deal, Ireland (now that Hungary set precedent) keeps vetoing until trade deal endsup having same parameters as wa (or better must include a border poll)

No need for an Irish veto here.

Just ordinary EU style trade negotiation. This is the adult world where the EU's 445 mill citizens vs the UK's 67 mill will force the smaller UK to give in in about 6 out of 7 times.

The WA text - as is, but without the transition periods - must be ratified by the UK before any negotiations can even begin.

Lars

PS! Voting for a UI is not an EU matter, but follows from the GFA text.

Hurrache · 05-10-2019 11:04am

Great article in The Guardian
[url] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/04/peace-ireland-brexit-boris-johnson-good-friday-agreement[/url]

ancapailldorcha · 05-10-2019 11:10am

lawred2 wrote: »

Oh well. Noone cares. You make your own bed.

Mod: Less of this please.

A Shropshire Lad · 05-10-2019 11:14am

I think Johnsons proposal is pretty bad, but the real cherry on top is offering the Stormont assembley a veto every term. A potential consititutional crisis every four years.

In fact, Stormont hasnt sat in nearly 3 years I believe. Its currently being let out for weddings !

Leroy42 · 05-10-2019 11:23am

And the DUP show they are more than happy to tear up an international agreement.

https://twitter.com/JeanneBartram/status/1180223689008267264?s=09

Why should anyone think they will adhere to any vote in the future?

FrancieBrady · 05-10-2019 11:29am

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

I think Johnsons proposal is pretty bad, but the real cherry on top is offering the Stormont assembley a veto every term. A potential consititutional crisis every four years.

In fact, Stormont hasnt sat in nearly 3 years I believe. Its currently being let out for weddings !

The thing is it wouldn't just be a constitutional crisis for them, it would also dominate politics here.

Leroy42 · 05-10-2019 11:42am

Yeah, we would be facing a border crisis pretty much continuously. Everytime Dublin tried to interact with NI, DUP would simply say they'll leave the deal unless Dublin backs off.

Professor Moriarty · 05-10-2019 11:44am

As it happens, the Northern Secretary seemed to suggest yesterday that they would be willing to get rid of the DUP veto.

BonnieSituation · 05-10-2019 11:51am

Leroy42 wrote: »

And the DUP show they are more than happy to tear up an international agreement.

https://twitter.com/JeanneBartram/status/1180223689008267264?s=09

Why should anyone think they will adhere to any vote in the future?

Just to get that link embedded/live. Twitter search is a shambles.

BonnieSituation · 05-10-2019 11:53am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As it happens, the Northern Secretary seemed to suggest yesterday that they would be willing to get rid of the DUP veto.

You can't unilaterally decide to change a pivotal part of the GFA. Even if you don't like it.

maebee · 05-10-2019 12:00pm

Hurrache wrote: »

Great article in The Guardian
[url] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/04/peace-ireland-brexit-boris-johnson-good-friday-agreement[/url]

Thanks for this Hurrache. That's got to be the best Brexit article written in any UK paper since this sorry mess began.

Professor Moriarty · 05-10-2019 12:00pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You can't unilaterally decide to change a pivotal part of the GFA. Even if you don't like it.

Coveney has already dismissed it as being pointless anyway.

BonnieSituation · 05-10-2019 12:07pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Coveney has already dismissed it as being pointless anyway.

Pointless and impossible.

The Brits constantly fly these kites to create normalisation. So watch as "veto" becomes this week's watchword.

maebee · 05-10-2019 12:15pm

https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2018/10/02/news/arlene-foster-says-good-friday-agreement-not-sacrosanct-as-she-backs-boris-johnson-s-brexit-plan-1447683/

Arlene needs her head examined if she thinks the GFA can be revisited and amended in any way. It's unforgivable that she should say it's 'not sacrosanct". The world, the USA in particular, is watching you Arlene.

Capt'n Midnight · 05-10-2019 12:16pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Strange that: the experts told us this would happen, and we all know experts are always wrong ... :rolleyes:

I love Defra's apparent disconnect from reality, but if this mentality is endemic in the higher levels of the rest of the civil service, one would have question the robustness of their no-deal preparations.

Just because we can, doesn't mean we will! 'Specially when you've branded us as benefit-sponging parasites, and are sending letters to long-term tax-paying residents telling the they're no longer welcome.

There's also the issue of Sterling being worth a lot less than it used to be.

And the other countries economies kept growing while the UK stagnates.

Nett migration from Poland has stopped.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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