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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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    #2972
    blackcard
    Registered Users Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭blackcard


    What is the minimum extension that can be sought? Could Boris look for an extension of 1 day?


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    #2973
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    humberklog wrote: »
    Ah... Thanks J Mysterio.


    So it's kinda the conspiratorial end of the spectrum.


    Probably says more about the people I follow on Twitter.


    There is reason for people to have some misgivings, especially as the Hungarian Foreign Minister and the Ambassador was seen leaving the cabinet office at the same time as the cabinet was meeting yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/ResistersLondon/status/1179781814564638721?s=20

    I read it somewhere that the relationship between the Foreign Minister and Johnson (I think) is very close, but at the same time while Orban has been spouting anti-EU messages when the time comes to talk at EU Council meetings he is quiet as a mouse and goes along with the majority.

    It is possible that Hungary could vote against a extension, but why would they expend their political capital for the UK and basically throw a fellow member under the bus, Ireland, that is a net contributor when they take about 5 billion euro a year from the EU.


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    #2974
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,601 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    In his letter to the Scottish courts today he explicitly committed to not doing that - "He will not frustrate the court/Benn Act"

    All smoke and mirrors.

    It's becoming clear that he probably won't frustrate the act and nor will he break the law, but nothing can be ruled out, but it looks likely that he will comply.

    However the other bit of news today, which has gone under the radar in many places, is that Boris has committed to touring many EU capitals and countries next week in order to talk about Brexit and the deal.

    Maybe I am cynical, but next week if he convinces people or perhaps annoys them enough or even acts in a downright offensive way to a country, one of them might veto the extension and I suspect this is now his aim.


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    #2975
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 53,979 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    blackcard wrote: »
    What is the minimum extension that can be sought? Could Boris look for an extension of 1 day?

    The EU are the decision maker


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    #2976
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    humberklog wrote: »
    Ah... Thanks J Mysterio.

    So it's kinda the conspiratorial end of the spectrum.

    Probably says more about the people I follow on Twitter.

    Very much is at the conspiratorial end of the spectrum, but with the UK government's lack of honour and integrity, nothing can or should be completely discounted.


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    #2977
    prunudo
    Registered Users Posts: 7,187 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Scoondal wrote: »
    UK government will apply for a Brexit extension as per UK law but Hungary will deny such an extension.

    Surely Hungary can't do deals with other countries. Its a Deal with the whole EU not individual member states.


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    #2978
    humberklog
    Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 10,451 Mod ✭✭✭✭humberklog


    Scoondal wrote: »
    humberklog's post here has informed me about the apparent contradictory statements of UK government. Hungary will oppose a Brexit extension.


    Now keep in mind I was only asking if someone could straighten out something I was confused with.


    Hungary did have a few big wigs in with the Tories today and I came across a few postings that it might be to get them to veto the impending extension request.

    I couldn't figure out if this was credible or real. Maybe they were just having cucumber sambos and a catch up.



    Seems an odd, risky and convoluted idea.


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    #2979
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    devnull wrote: »
    It's becoming clear that he probably won't frustrate the act and nor will he break the law, but nothing can be ruled out, but it looks likely that he will comply.

    However the other bit of news today, which has gone under the radar in many places, is that Boris has committed to touring many EU capitals and countries next week in order to talk about Brexit and the deal.

    Maybe I am cynical, but next week if he convinces people or perhaps annoys them enough or even acts in a downright offensive way to a country, one of them might veto the extension and I suspect this is now his aim.
    Which is all well and good until they get together and work out a strategy. That strategy might be good luck and feck off, no extension, but it could just be wait out an election and see how the cards fall. The big prize is having the UK remain.


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    #2980
    moon2
    Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭moon2


    Suppose Boris asks for an extension as per the Benn law, don't the UK have full authority to unilaterally exit the EU at any point during that extension period, with or without a deal? Couldn't they also exit the current extension today?


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    #2981
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 17,040 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    How can anyone with any sense not see how those two positions can't be squared.

    Well to be fair, the Tory red lines were decided years ago

    1. No hard border in Ireland
    2. No special status for NI

    Only now is it dawning on the slow learners that those two red lines are not compatible with each other so I can well believe that they accept those two positions


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    #2982
    blackcard
    Registered Users Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭blackcard


    Headshot wrote: »
    The EU are the decision maker

    Yes. But would Boris not be complying with the Benn Act by asking for an extension of 1 day? The EU refuse this and Boris has his Brexit?


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    #2983
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    moon2 wrote: »
    Suppose Boris asks for an extension as per the Benn law, don't the UK have full authority to unilaterally exit the EU at any point during that extension period, with or without a deal? Couldn't they also exit the current extension today?

    They certainly could. They could leave in five minutes time. Well Johnson and the Tories could say that they are leaving immediately but all hell would break loose in the UK.


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    #2984
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Enzokk wrote: »
    There is reason for people to have some misgivings, especially as the Hungarian Foreign Minister and the Ambassador was seen leaving the cabinet office at the same time as the cabinet was meeting yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/ResistersLondon/status/1179781814564638721?s=20

    I read it somewhere that the relationship between the Foreign Minister and Johnson (I think) is very close, but at the same time while Orban has been spouting anti-EU messages when the time comes to talk at EU Council meetings he is quiet as a mouse and goes along with the majority.

    It is possible that Hungary could vote against a extension, but why would they expend their political capital for the UK and basically throw a fellow member under the bus, Ireland, that is a net contributor when they take about 5 billion euro a year from the EU.

    Here is an interview with him

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179824570079088640


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    #2985
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    moon2 wrote: »
    Suppose Boris asks for an extension as per the Benn law, don't the UK have full authority to unilaterally exit the EU at any point during that extension period, with or without a deal? Couldn't they also exit the current extension today?


    I think they can, Johnson would have to ask for the EU to change the date on the extension/A50 to the date he wants to leave so that the UK is legally out of the EU at that date, then he would have to get parliament to change the extension date as well I think to make it legal in the UK.

    It is true that without a deal or extension or repeal of article 50 the UK is automatically out of the EU by the date specified in the agreement, I guess the problem for him comes from asking the UK Parliament to make it legal in UK law. The EU will not let it happen without approval from parliament.


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    #2986
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,366 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    It would be an act of incredible self-harm for any country to veto an extension.


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    #2987
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 53,979 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    blackcard wrote: »
    Yes. But would Boris not be complying with the Benn Act by asking for an extension of 1 day? The EU refuse this and Boris has his Brexit?

    Nope from my understanding that BJ asks for an extension and EU say up to 2 years and the UK have to accept it.


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    #2988
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 17,040 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Not forgetting that Johnson did not provide an affadavit to the court today

    In another tweet

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1180169071477829633


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    #2989
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    blackcard wrote: »
    Yes. But would Boris not be complying with the Benn Act by asking for an extension of 1 day? The EU refuse this and Boris has his Brexit?

    The Benn Act specifies the wording he has to use. I must check but I think it specifies the time period also. Its 6 months or so, or if the EU don't accept that, however long they think is prudent. The latter provision really has Brexiteers up in arms.

    Edit: extension to 31 Jan 2020 or, failing that, when the EU thinks appropriate.

    The suggested date isn't very helpful given how short a time frame it is.


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    #2990
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Headshot wrote: »
    Nope from my understanding that BJ asks for an extension and EU say up to 2 years and the UK have to accept it.


    No, for any date past the 3 months specified in the Act, Parliament has to vote for it before it is accepted. So ask for 3 months and if the EU suggests longer then it is up to the UK Parliament to approve before they accept it.


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    #2991
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,170 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    Very much is at the conspiratorial end of the spectrum, but with the UK government's lack of honour and integrity, nothing can or should be completely discounted.

    Absolutely. I saw those tweets yesterday and cast them off as tin foil hat conspiracy things but nothing would surprise me. It wasn't that long ago Kawczynski was openly asking the Polish government to veto the extension.


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    #2992
    blackcard
    Registered Users Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭blackcard


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    The Benn Act specifies the wording he has to use. I must check but I think it specifies the time period also. Its 6 months or so, or if the EU don't accept that, however long they think is prudent. The latter provision really has Brexiteers up in arms.

    I checked and he must accept an extension up to 31st Jan 2020 if offered.


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    #2993
    Dont be at yourself
    Registered Users Posts: 10,574 ✭✭✭✭Dont be at yourself


    More chance of France rejecting an extension than Hungary. Didn't Macron have to be talked around to the last extension?

    Can see the EU attaching harsh conditions to any extension; perhaps a minimum extension of 12 months, a second referendum, or an immediate GE. Perhaps Boris is banking on those conditions being unpalatable for parliament.


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    #2994
    humberklog
    Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 10,451 Mod ✭✭✭✭humberklog


    I heard a very good line on a Brexit podcast. One of the presenters was talking to an EU negotiator who said to them..."The lipstick is in their pocket and they're ready to use it- but they'll only apply it once".


    Meaning the EU will dress a pig of a deal but the Brits need to know what the deal is first and stop moving about.


    Made me chuckle.


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    #2995
    Scoondal
    Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    Humberklog may have nailed the apparent conflict of the UK govenment's position.


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    #2996
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    moon2 wrote: »
    Suppose Boris asks for an extension as per the Benn law, don't the UK have full authority to unilaterally exit the EU at any point during that extension period, with or without a deal? Couldn't they also exit the current extension today?
    They could. But it would be meaningless. EU law would still apply and it would be ineffectual.


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    #2997
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,428 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If the whole world 'seen' the Hungarians entering No. 10 you can be damn sure it is because Johnson wants the world to think that they might veto and extension.

    The UK are playing this oldschool like it was the 1950's and scripted by John Lé Carre, with feints and shadowboxing and manipulation going down all over the shop.


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    #2998
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    If the whole world 'seen' the Hungarians entering No. 10 you can be damn sure it is because Johnson wants the world to think that they might veto and extension.

    The UK are playing this oldschool like it was the 1950's and scripted by John Lé Carre, with feints and shadowboxing and manipulation going down all over the shop.

    Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spoofer.


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    #2999
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    If the whole world 'seen' the Hungarians entering No. 10 you can be damn sure it is because Johnson wants the world to think that they might veto and extension.

    The UK are playing this oldschool like it was the 1950's and scripted by John Lé Carre, with feints and shadowboxing and manipulation going down all over the shop.


    There was the extinction rebellion protest at the back that prevented them from leaving from there and why they were spotted.


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    #3000
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,966 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    PropJoe10 wrote: »
    Ah, it was just about the fact that May's agreement had the support of all parties in the North other than the DUP and how the rights of people on the street need to be respected and represented, rather than just the views of the DUP who are the only party supporting Boris's new ideas.
    Yeah, about that

    Not even the DUP's recent Finance minister in the Northern Ireland Executive agrees with them.
    "We are therefore deeply concerned that the prime minister's proposals... run the risk of increasing the cost of doing business with the EU and seriously disrupt vital supply chains," he said.

    A no-deal Brexit would do "undoubted damage" to Northern Ireland's economy, he added.


    This is what NI Suppliers are going through
    Trevor Lockhart, the head of the Fane Valley Group, claimed Brexit uncertainty has already lost his agri-food company £5m worth of contracts.

    He said the company lost contracts that took eight years to develop.

    ...
    "How on earth are businesses in NI supposed to build customer relationship, invest, borrow money on the back of that level of uncertainty?"


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    #3001
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,428 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Enzokk wrote: »
    There was the extinction rebellion protest at the back that prevented them from leaving from there and why they were spotted.

    The last thing he would want, if he had bribed them, is it to be known about. They'd have been smuggled out, or wouldn't have been met there in the first place.

    I am calling a 'misdirection' stunt.


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