Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Itssoeasy · 04-10-2019 05:12PM

So Simon Coveney must be doing something right as Arlene Foster is giving out about him. The neck of the DUP to call others "intransigent" is just amazing.

Hurrache · 04-10-2019 05:19PM

Bizarrer and bizarrer
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1180148038649700358

EU talks with the UK have officially ended, they've said the current proposals aren't a basis for an agreement and for the UK to come back Monday with more details.

GM228 · 04-10-2019 05:20PM

Good thread from the managing director of the Eurasia Group on the views of senior member state and EU ofricials:-

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1180144353077026816?s=19

Interesting to note the EP wanted to outright reject the proposal, but Juncker and the EC convinced them not to.

littlemac1980 · 04-10-2019 05:29PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Bizarrer and bizarrer
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1180148038649700358

EU talks with the UK have officially ended, they've said the current proposals aren't a basis for an agreement and for the UK to come back Monday with more details.

One can only presume the "New Deal" being referred to here is another agreement to grant a further extension. Zzzzzzzzz.......... someone please wake me up when those clowns have finally left the EU please so we can all move on and occasionally visit the English Isle for some cheap piss-up weekends.

Enzokk · 04-10-2019 05:31PM

Does the Benn act state the deal must be one acceptable to the EU? He could possibly get away with not sending the letter that way, get his deal passed by parliament and then avoid having to send the letter. I am missing something, right?

BonnieSituation · 04-10-2019 05:38PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Single market and customs union with a vote every 4 years not subject to a single community veto is a deal I think would work.

It's still daft for NI economically though to have that uncertainty every 4 years.

It won't work. Not a hope. And why would we agree to such nonsense?

prawnsambo · 04-10-2019 05:38PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Does the Benn act state the deal must be one acceptable to the EU? He could possibly get away with not sending the letter that way, get his deal passed by parliament and then avoid having to send the letter. I am missing something, right?

Iirc it stipulates a deal. Something written on the back of a fag packet in Downing Street does not constitute a deal. And the timing of the Benn Act implicitly means that the EuCo have agreed to it, making it an actual deal.

Scoondal · 04-10-2019 05:40PM

The UK government has said that it will request a Brexit extension. And they will definitely leave EU on 31 October.
This is what we are dealing with ... UK government playing games with EU. Their arrogance and playing a game in such a serious situation is unbelievable for what used to be a respected country.

Infini · 04-10-2019 05:44PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The NI Secretary is open to the petition of concern being scrapped specifically for votes on regulatory alignment:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/04/stormont-party-veto-could-be-ditched-for-brexit-says-minister

That thing has been abused by the DUP and to be honest needs to be curtailed or removed outright.

04-10-2019 05:47PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

That was brilliant from Bonnie Greer. Great to see our American friends speaking up for us.

Quite amazing the parts of the world that support is coming from. And, moreover, it took her some courage to say that on British tv when her livelihood is made there in that far bigger market than Ireland. Not many people would have that sort of guts.

It reminded me instantly of that ineffably brilliant Samuel L. Jackson interview years ago with a British journalist named Kate Thornton.

Anyway, I just heard about Bonnie Greer on the way home this afternoon as she was being interviewed by Mary Wilson on Drivetime. She was exceedingly articulate, recounting how when she lived in Kilburn in the 1980s, having just settled in Britain, an Irishman in a pub said to her 'I only realised I was black when I opened my mouth in this country.' She then proceeded to tell us what so many British do not know: it's the US Congress which decides trade deals and not the US president.

I recall reading an English MP from the 1840s or 1850s warning English people about the consequences for England of millions of Irish fleeing to America. I think it was John Bright but I can't find the exact quote. At any rate, all the voices coming from so many corners of US society - most critically Richard Neal and Nancy Pelosi - are bearing witness to this now.

Behind it all, let us never forget, is John Hume. It was genius of Hume to get the US and EU to act as guarantors of the GFA.

J Mysterio · 04-10-2019 05:51PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

She was exceedingly articulate, recounting how when she lived in Kilburn in the 1980s, having just settled in Britain, an Irishman in a pub said to her 'I only realised I was black when I opened my mouth in this country.'

That's hilarious. Reminds one of the speech in the Commitments.

Tea Shock · 04-10-2019 05:52PM

Infini wrote: »

That thing has been abused by the DUP and to be honest needs to be curtailed or removed outright.

The the petition of concern mechanism cannot be removed or edited without reopening the GFA. A non-runner!

Water John · 04-10-2019 05:53PM

We should make Bonnie Greer an Honorary Ambassador for Ireland.

humberklog · 04-10-2019 05:53PM

Could someone clear something up for me.

So it looks like Boris is going to have to ask the EU for an extension by the 19th.

I'm reading on Twitter that there might be shennanigans afoot by the Tories to get the Hungarians onside to veto the request.

Have I read that right? Why would Britain look for a country to veto their request?

Or have I got it all wrong?

Water John · 04-10-2019 05:57PM

All 27 EU countries have to agree to an Ext, otherwise the request falls. Remember the last time the UK Tory MP of Polish extraction looking for his home country to block it.

BonnieSituation · 04-10-2019 05:57PM

Infini wrote: »

That thing has been abused by the DUP and to be honest needs to be curtailed or removed outright.

Raising the threshold to 35/40 could help in general. But not for this reason.

What isn't helping is the UKGOV linking procedural aspects of the GFA to Brexit.

Changing it will require buy-in from all sides, including the Irish government. And given it will be tied to a moronic plan for Brexit I can't see anyone agreeing to it.

J Mysterio · 04-10-2019 05:58PM

humberklog wrote: »

Could someone clear something up for me.

So it looks like Boris is going to have to ask the EU for an extension by the 19th.

I'm reading on Twitter that there might be shennanigans afoot by the Tories to get the Hungarians onside to veto the request.

Have I read that right? Why would Britain look for a country to veto their request?

Or have I got it all wrong?

Its a very outlandish theory and I dont subscribe to it, but the idea is as follows:

1. Johnson says he wants No Deal
2. The Benn Act forces him to ask for an extension
3. He will ask for the extension under duress
4. He will ask or bribe an EU country to veto the extension.
5. UK crashes out of EU.

Can't see it happening.

I think Johnson is pretending he wants to leave on Oct 31st 'come what may'.

He really wants the extension so UK can have a GE. He wants a shot at gaining a majority to out some weight behind him in further negotiations with the EU

humberklog · 04-10-2019 06:03PM

Water John wrote: »

All 27 EU countries have to agree to an Ext, otherwise the request falls. Remember the last time the UK Tory MP of Polish extraction looking for his home country to block it.

Yeah, I get that.

So are the Tories looking to get the Hungarians onside to support their extension request?

Most of what I (think) I've been reading appears to suspect the Tories are looking at getting the Hungarians to veto their extension request.

humberklog · 04-10-2019 06:04PM

Ah... Thanks J Mysterio.

So it's kinda the conspiratorial end of the spectrum.

Probably says more about the people I follow on Twitter.

Itssoeasy · 04-10-2019 06:07PM

Scoondal wrote: »

The UK government has said that it will request a Brexit extension. And they will definitely leave EU on 31 October.
This is what we are dealing with ... UK government playing games with EU. Their arrogance and playing a game in such a serious situation is unbelievable for what used to be a respected country.

How can anyone with any sense not see how those two positions can't be squared.

Scoondal · 04-10-2019 06:09PM

humberklog wrote: »

Could someone clear something up for me.

So it looks like Boris is going to have to ask the EU for an extension by the 19th.

I'm reading on Twitter that there might be shennanigans afoot by the Tories to get the Hungarians onside to veto the request.

Have I read that right? Why would Britain look for a country to veto their request?

Or have I got it all wrong?

Ah ..didn't know that. Of course any EU country can reject a Brexit extension.

An Ciarraioch · 04-10-2019 06:11PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Bizarrer and bizarrer
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1180148038649700358

EU talks with the UK have officially ended, they've said the current proposals aren't a basis for an agreement and for the UK to come back Monday with more details.

As per Alberto Nardelli:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1180151019050881024

blackcard · 04-10-2019 06:11PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So Simon Coveney must be doing something right as Arlene Foster is giving out about him. The neck of the DUP to call others "intransigent" is just amazing.

This from the party of 'Never, never, never' and 'Not an inch', the party of Sammy Wilson, the neanderthal party stuck in a backwater. They don't even realise how stupid they look coming out with this

Quin_Dub · 04-10-2019 06:16PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Its a very outlandish theory and I dont subscribe to it, but the idea is as follows:

1. Johnson says he wants No Deal
2. The Benn Act forces him to ask for an extension
3. He will ask for the extension under duress
4. He will ask or bribe an EU country to veto the extension.
5. UK crashes out of EU.

Can't see it happening.

I think Johnson is pretending he wants to leave on Oct 31st 'come what may'.

He really wants the extension so UK can have a GE. He wants a shot at gaining a majority to out some weight behind him in further negotiations with the EU

In his letter to the Scottish courts today he explicitly committed to not doing that - "He will not frustrate the court/Benn Act"

All smoke and mirrors.

Scoondal · 04-10-2019 06:16PM

humberklog's post here has informed me about the apparent contradictory statements of UK government. Hungary will oppose a Brexit extension.

Scoondal · 04-10-2019 06:18PM

Scoondal wrote: »

humberklog's post here has informed me about the apparent contradictory statements of UK government. Hungary will oppose a Brexit extension.

UK government will apply for a Brexit extension as per UK law but Hungary will deny such an extension.

Water John · 04-10-2019 06:19PM

Yes, the placing of custom checks on the island of Ireland won't be a bridge crossed by the EU. UK told go back to the drawing board, over the weekend.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/04/boris-johnson-brexit-plan-european-commission-no-grounds-weekend-negotiations

“We will meet again on Monday to give the UK another opportunity to present its proposals in detail.” The spokeswoman added that the proposals did not “provide a basis for concluding an agreement”.

blackcard · 04-10-2019 06:20PM

What is the minimum extension that can be sought? Could Boris look for an extension of 1 day?

Enzokk · 04-10-2019 06:21PM

humberklog wrote: »

Ah... Thanks J Mysterio.

So it's kinda the conspiratorial end of the spectrum.

Probably says more about the people I follow on Twitter.

There is reason for people to have some misgivings, especially as the Hungarian Foreign Minister and the Ambassador was seen leaving the cabinet office at the same time as the cabinet was meeting yesterday.

https://twitter.com/ResistersLondon/status/1179781814564638721?s=20

I read it somewhere that the relationship between the Foreign Minister and Johnson (I think) is very close, but at the same time while Orban has been spouting anti-EU messages when the time comes to talk at EU Council meetings he is quiet as a mouse and goes along with the majority.

It is possible that Hungary could vote against a extension, but why would they expend their political capital for the UK and basically throw a fellow member under the bus, Ireland, that is a net contributor when they take about 5 billion euro a year from the EU.

devnull · 04-10-2019 06:22PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

In his letter to the Scottish courts today he explicitly committed to not doing that - "He will not frustrate the court/Benn Act"

All smoke and mirrors.

It's becoming clear that he probably won't frustrate the act and nor will he break the law, but nothing can be ruled out, but it looks likely that he will comply.

However the other bit of news today, which has gone under the radar in many places, is that Boris has committed to touring many EU capitals and countries next week in order to talk about Brexit and the deal.

Maybe I am cynical, but next week if he convinces people or perhaps annoys them enough or even acts in a downright offensive way to a country, one of them might veto the extension and I suspect this is now his aim.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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