Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Bigus · 09-08-2019 08:28PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK economy is shrinking with the value of the pound approaching the value of the Euro.

All reported on by the Telegraph, one of the leading cheerleaders for their employee, BJ.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/09/markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-ftse-red-growth/

The Dailymail comments on the gdp figures and the falling pound from the Brexiteers is mainly blaming the Remainers for not getting them out soon enough, aswell as devious unknowns pushing up the Euro !

prawnsambo · 09-08-2019 08:41PM

lawred2 wrote: »

It's not that confusing.. in fact I don't see what the issue is

Well on one level, he could be confusing Ni with ROI. Or referring to a united Ireland. On another level, assuming he's not doing that, then why the hell single out Ireland? And why being in favour of an independent sovereign government (what is that anyway?) should be worthy of note. Might as well say they are in favour of the French government in Paris. Just strange imo.

Spanish Eyes · 09-08-2019 08:47PM

I may be deluded, probably am, but the fact that the Opposition (Labour) is silent seems to me to be treacherous now.

It is the perfect storm and Dominic Cummings knows it now, the de facto PM that he is.

I just do not know what is going on in the Labour Party now at all. Can anyone explain why they appear to be ineffectual, and why no one is prepared to sort it out?

I am sure there are wiser people than me out there. But Labour giving Johnson/Cummings a free pass on this is something else.

lawred2 · 09-08-2019 08:49PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well on one level, he could be confusing Ni with ROI. Or referring to a united Ireland. On another level, assuming he's not doing that, then why the hell single out Ireland? And why being in favour of an independent sovereign government (what is that anyway?) should be worthy of note. Might as well say they are in favour of the French government in Paris. Just strange imo.

well I suppose because France didn't ever seek independence from the United Kingdom...

It's a bit clunky admittedly but I kinda get what he was trying to say

prawnsambo · 09-08-2019 08:57PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I may be deluded, probably am, but the fact that the Opposition (Labour) is silent seems to me to be treacherous now.

It is the perfect storm and Dominic Cummings knows it now, the de facto PM that he is.

I just do not know what is going on in the Labour Party now at all. Can anyone explain why they appear to be ineffectual, and why no one is prepared to sort it out?

I am sure there are wiser people than me out there. But Labour giving Johnson/Cummings a free pass on this is something else.

They are pinning everything on an election. It's been that way for ever. It's also gone past delusion to think they can win it. The electorate has moved on and the remain and leave voters are now looking elsewhere. Magic Grandpa is not going to save them and they know it. You can only sit on the fence so long.

prawnsambo · 09-08-2019 09:01PM

lawred2 wrote: »

well I suppose because France didn't ever seek independence from the United Kingdom...

It's a bit clunky admittedly but I kinda get what he was trying to say

A bit? If he'd said the US government it probably couldn't have been more irrelevant. Just another hundred or so years out of date. Is it even a thing to be in favour of hundred year old independence struggles?

amacca · 09-08-2019 09:05PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I may be deluded, probably am, but the fact that the Opposition (Labour) is silent seems to me to be treacherous now.

It is the perfect storm and Dominic Cummings knows it now, the de facto PM that he is.

I just do not know what is going on in the Labour Party now at all. Can anyone explain why they appear to be ineffectual, and why no one is prepared to sort it out?

I am sure there are wiser people than me out there. But Labour giving Johnson/Cummings a free pass on this is something else.

I wouldn't want to takeover such a mess at this juncture....perhaps there is an element of fence sitting/shadow boxing going on there.....maybe mcdonnell etc happy to let Corbyn be a caretaker for a while...see if momentum builds for a second referendum or even a final ruling out of a no deal withdrawal as matters start to come to a head now that johnson and co are saying and doing as much as possible to convince all and sundry that no deal is more than just a possibility......

Its perilous to be at the helm now, the "opposition" won't take it in the neck as much as those in control when the **** hits the fan despite everyones criticism of their performance.......toxic elements in the media aside most business people and those with an ounce of sense etc must surely know the realities of what is being proposed ...if this goes bad which it surely will if a crash out occurs Id be surprised if the tories didn't suffer huge losses.......unless they control all the media outlets/message

So maybe the thinking is let them have their poison chalice and then pick up the pieces after this runaway train has derailed or attempt to board the train as momentum for alternatives (ruling out no deal/2nd referendum etc becomes more apparent and they can back that horse - current tories have plumped firmly for tally ho death or glory it seems....anyone getting on the train or attempting to stop the insanity at this juncture will be part of the train wreck or run over.

Capt'n Midnight · 09-08-2019 09:13PM

On the whole tax avoidance thing.

Tax from certain UK residents was down £2bn last year. It's just one more item that eats into the "saving" of nearly £9bn in EU contributions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49279174

The number of wealthy residents who pay no UK tax on their offshore accounts has fallen to its lowest level ever, according to Treasury figures.

Last year, there were 78,300 non-domiciled taxpayers, or "non-doms", in the UK compared with 98,500 in 2016-17.

And the £9.5bn they paid to the taxman in 2016/17 fell to £7.5bn last year.

International law firm Pinsent Masons said the reason was Brexit and nervousness over the chances of a Labour government.

Infini · 09-08-2019 09:26PM

Sterling now officially 93p to the €1. Just slid past the mark and is nearing all time low of 93.5p. Wonder how long this slow corrosion will go on before we hit 94/95 etc and head towards parity.

Leroy42 · 09-08-2019 09:31PM

Are they purposefully allowing a depreciation in the pound to help with exports?

Bit cynical · 09-08-2019 09:34PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Are they purposefully allowing a depreciation in the pound to help with exports?

I don't think they've had a policy of maintaining a particular level with the Euro or other currencies since they left the ERM. Market sets the exchange rate.

Strazdas · 09-08-2019 09:38PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Are they purposefully allowing a depreciation in the pound to help with exports?

Given that it's an import led economy (unlike Ireland), that would be a very bad idea.

I do think the falling pound is deeply problematic for the zealots and the Brexit cheerleaders. It's very hard to spin this as a positive and it is hitting ordinary citizens in the pocket.

Sam Russell · 09-08-2019 09:43PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think they've had a policy of maintaining a particular level with the Euro or other currencies since they left the ERM. Market sets the exchange rate.

I think they have had BoE intervention at various times.

Current rate is equivalent to IR£1 = £1.18. Before, the IR£ was always weaker than the GB£ since we split.

It is now weaker against the € than any time in the last 9 years. It has lost 40% against the US$ in the last decade.

GB£10,000 invested in Deutsche Marks in 1966, would now be worth €50,000.

In 1948, there were US$4 = GB£1, now it is US$1.20 = GB£1.

Spanish Eyes · 09-08-2019 09:55PM

No one seems to care that much, and there is little panic going on amongst those who will be most affected.

Must be the red tops. Sorry now. But I reckon most are punch drunk and want to just get on with it now.

Cummings (pseudo PM) has it sussed. There must be parallels somewhere for this kind of thing somewhere.

Capt'n Midnight · 09-08-2019 10:01PM

20silkcut wrote: »

Same with Japan. Conventional bombing did not bring them to the table either.
It took the atom bomb
The blitz spirit is certainly not unique.

On the 8th of August Japan had the Americans on the front door. But their backs were covered by a peace treaty with Russia , and a secure hinterland in Manchuria with a million man army. It was possible to imagine continuing the fight from there.

Then the Soviets announced that they would be at war with Japan tomorrow the 9th.

By the 16th the Soviets had blitzkrieged their way through most of the defences. It was so fast that Korea is split in two.

Right now the UK is looking for a trade deal with the EU. That's the visible threat.

If a car plant or two gets nuked on WTO terms it won't take the whole economy down.

But it's like they've forgotten just how dependent their service sector is on the goodwill of the EU. The UK needs to get and keep Data Adequacy and Equivalence or large chunks of the service sector will be blindsided. Then the economy will have nothing to fall back on.

David Davis himself threw a spanner in the works when he got the European court of justice to rule that the UK's snooper’s charter was illegal.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/data-adequacy
Suspicion that they are transferring security data to Five Eyes would give the EU the option to pull the rug out from under them anytime.
Workarounds to Data Protection can take a year and would be on a company by company basis if the go the BCR route.
Customs delays if there's data transfer issues.

As for the timewasting and sabre rattling by the UK over Brexit and preparations :
They that sow the wind, shall reap the whirlwind

Capt'n Midnight · 09-08-2019 10:25PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

In 1948, there were US$4 = GB£1, now it is US$1.20 = GB£1.

Much of the drop occurred on September 18 1949 when sterling was devalued from $4.03 to $2.80

What it shows is how one-sided the "Special Relationship" has always been.

Or look at how Canada has been treated. Trump tore up the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Imposed Steel and Aluminium tariffs on Canada and the EU using China as an excuse.

NAFTA got replaced with USMCA.

Country of origin rules: Automobiles must have 75 percent of their components manufactured in Mexico, the US, or Canada to qualify for zero tariffs
...
US farmers get more access to the Canadian dairy market:

UK cars only have 41% local content. They've a snowball's chance in Hell of getting on a Free Trade Agreement.

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 10:27PM

GBP just dropped below the previous lowest value in the last ten years.

prawnsambo · 09-08-2019 10:31PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Much of the drop occurred on September 18 1949 when sterling was devalued from $4.03 to $2.80

What it shows is how one-sided the "Special Relationship" has always been.

Or look at how Canada has been treated. Trump tore up the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Imposed Steel and Aluminium tariffs on Canada and the EU using China as an excuse.

NAFTA got replaced with USMCA.

UK cars only have 41% local content. They've a snowball's chance in Hell of getting on a Free Trade Agreement.

Afaik, USMCA is being held up in congress. So NAFTA is still operative. Doesn't change your point though.

Irish Praetorian · 09-08-2019 10:31PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

On the 8th of August Japan had the Americans on the front door. But their backs were covered by a peace treaty with Russia , and a secure hinterland in Manchuria with a million man army. It was possible to imagine continuing the fight from there.

Then the Soviets announced that they would be at war with Japan tomorrow the 9th.

By the 16th the Soviets had blitzkrieged their way through most of the defences. It was so fast that Korea is split in two.

Maybe lets not get into the guts of that debate here, I think the point might be that the message needs something stronger to get through to the UK.

Interesting that someone brought up the question of a weakening pound possibly being good for cheapening UK exports to the EU. Now this is in theory true but the problem, part of which you have identified here, is that the barriers to trade in the EU comprise not just tariffs but also a variety of non-tariff barriers (registration, sign-offs, verification, etc) that can add a significant unspoken cost to exports. I suspect that might be the big rub when it comes to EU-UK trade post Brexit.

While I'm posting here, I couldn't help but observe Julia Hartley-Brewer commenting today on the pre-eminence of the UK in the university rankings as compared with the EU. I believe in the top 10 world universities, the UK has about 4, the EU (excluding the UK) none. So I went a bit deeper to the top 50 and I would suspect the UK has about 15, the rest of the EU 5 and the rest of the world the remainder.

The best riposte I could come up with is that this might in part be a product of EU investment and the UK's access to an entire EU pool of academic talent. I had considered making the case about EU funding but I suspect this would be easily brushed off as being less than the UK's EU contribution. Can anyone suggest any other counters we might use for the point?

tuxy · 09-08-2019 10:36PM

Well this phrase has been used again in reference to brexit.

n****r in the wood pile

http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/09/news/bbcni-apology-after-richard-halleron-drops-n-word-during-live-interview-1680967/

I had never head it before an MP said it in 2017!

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 10:36PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Maybe lets not get into the guts of that debate here, I think the point might be that the message needs something stronger to get through to the UK.

Interesting that someone brought up the question of a weakening pound possibly being good for cheapening UK exports to the EU. Now this is in theory true but the problem, part of which you have identified here, is that the barriers to trade in the EU comprise not just tariffs but also a variety of non-tariff barriers (registration, sign-offs, verification, etc) that can add a significant unspoken cost to exports. I suspect that might be the big rub when it comes to EU-UK trade post Brexit.

While I'm posting here, I couldn't help but observe Julia Hartley-Brewer commenting today on the pre-eminence of the UK in the university rankings as compared with the EU. I believe in the top 10 world universities, the UK has about 4, the EU (excluding the UK) none. So I went a bit deeper to the top 50 and I would suspect the UK has about 15, the rest of the EU 5 and the rest of the world the remainder.

The best riposte I could come up with is that this might in part be a product of EU investment and the UK's access to an entire EU pool of academic talent. I had considered making the case about EU funding but I suspect this would be easily brushed off as being less than the UK's EU contribution. Can anyone suggest any other counters we might use for the point?

There is no use in countering the point, in terms of rankings, for what they are worth, the UK has some great Universities, and that has been a significant boost to their economey and soft power globally for years. Brexit will have a negative impact on their universities, but may not change the overall picture significantly in terms of how they are ranked. The wider point, however, is that their great universities will not save them from the consequences of Brexit, not even close.

Shelga · 09-08-2019 10:38PM

Forgive my ignorance, but why has the pound plummeted so sharply this week? On Monday it was around £1=€1.095, if memory serves, now, 4 days later, it has drastically gone down to £1=€1.068?? It has dropped more every time I’ve looked at it.

Why didn’t it drop so sharply the moment Johnson became PM, if his new government’s no-deal policy is the cause of the drop in value?

*edit* obviously the announcement today that the economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter is key, but it was already falling sharply before that? Was that in anticipation of today’s announcement?

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2019 10:48PM

Shelga wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance, but why has the pound plummeted so sharply this week? On Monday it was around £1=€1.095, if memory serves, now, 4 days later, it has drastically gone down to £1=€1.068?? It has dropped more every time I’ve looked at it.

Why didn’t it drop so sharply the moment Johnson became PM, if his new government’s no-deal policy is the cause of the drop in value?

*edit* obviously the announcement today that the economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter is key, but it was already falling sharply before that? Was that in anticipation of today’s announcement?

Confidence is waning. Simple economics.

Sam Russell · 09-08-2019 10:48PM

Shelga wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance, but why has the pound plummeted so sharply this week? On Monday it was around £1=€1.095, if memory serves, now, 4 days later, it has drastically gone down to £1=€1.068?? It has dropped more every time I’ve looked at it.

Why didn’t it drop so sharply the moment Johnson became PM, if his new government’s no-deal policy is the cause of the drop in value?

*edit* obviously the announcement today that the economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter is key, but it was already falling sharply before that? Was that in anticipation of today’s announcement?

I would think that the sentiment in the market has moved towards accepting that a No Deal is getting more likely and they are pricing it in.

It has been a steady decline for some time - against the US$ and the GBP, but 'Do or Die' is a bit dramatic and it may have spooked the market.

There is obviously talk of a serious constitutional crisis coming, and that is bad news - with potential civil unrest.

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 10:58PM

Shelga wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance, but why has the pound plummeted so sharply this week? On Monday it was around £1=€1.095, if memory serves, now, 4 days later, it has drastically gone down to £1=€1.068?? It has dropped more every time I’ve looked at it.

Why didn’t it drop so sharply the moment Johnson became PM, if his new government’s no-deal policy is the cause of the drop in value?

*edit* obviously the announcement today that the economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter is key, but it was already falling sharply before that? Was that in anticipation of today’s announcement?

To an extent its herd mentality, people will hold off as long as others do, and once the herd starts to move it can generate its own momentum becasue the mentality sets in that others must know something that you don't so you better move to keep ahead.

J Mysterio · 09-08-2019 11:11PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Are they purposefully allowing a depreciation in the pound to help with exports?

What are they going to export?

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 11:16PM

Indestructable wrote: »

What is after happening sterling in the last 2 hours or so. Nearly a full pence lost against the euro.

Just growing confidence in the market that we are on a no-deal path and the market responding accordingly. Its been on a fairly steady adjustment since May as the Tory leadership contest played out and the shape of Johnsons government became clear.

Capt'n Midnight · 09-08-2019 11:43PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Maybe lets not get into the guts of that debate here, I think the point might be that the message needs something stronger to get through to the UK.

The UK need to understand that they still haven't got a trade deal with the EU.

They only have a firm offer of a transition period in which to negotiate a trade deal. It's 595 pages and additional clarifications.

Leaving isn't an end.

It's the beginning of the real talks.

And not just with the EU, they've to have deals with all the big countries and blocs, and all at the same time because they are starting over. So it's not like they can have their A Team do it all.

And by announcing they are removing tariffs on 87% of all kinds of everything they have removed a lot of the incentive of other countries to give them special deals.

BonnieSituation · 09-08-2019 11:53PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

What are they going to export?

Feelings, belief and Blitz Spirit I guess

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 11:55PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Feelings, belief and Blitz Spirit I guess

Brexit surely? Once the rest of the EU sees the UK enjoyng the sunlit uplands of Brexit, then Frexit, Irexit, Italexit etc are sure to follow in quick succession.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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