Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

spacecoyote · 09-08-2019 04:22PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

But you never get the forex rate in folding currency transactions. There's always a transaction fee and/or commission. I was in an Irish PO the other day and they were buying sterling cash at around 95p to the Euro. A better rate than that chap got, but still a couple of pence less than the day rate on forex markets.

Absolutely, you'll not get the current market spot FX rate in any currency exchange place. They always have their bid/offer spread either side (ie the rate the either buy or sell the currency at)

Looking at XE.COM you can see the quoted spot rate is:
1 EUR = 0.927561 GBP

But if you go onto a currency exchange site you'll see something like:
We Buy 0.9497
We Sell 0.8957

These people are all looking to make money on both sides of the exchange.

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 04:24PM

briany wrote: »

When people say that there are disaster capitalists in the current crop of UK government, how do they think that really looks? What I mean is that when, say, Boris Johnson makes a public speech about how many great opportunities lie in Brexit, and then heads back inside no. 10, does he go to be by himself for a moment and say out loud, "Jesus Christ, that lot out there will believe anything.... Now, where's that investment portfolio?"

Like, are they all consciously thinking, "Sod the country. Let's make some motherf*cking money!"? Are they all corporate nihilists?

Or have they convinced themselves that somehow leaving the EU really will be better for the UK as a whole, but them especially?

I don't think Johnson is a disaster capitalist, he wants to be a great British statesman and has recognised that Brexit offers him an opportunity to get ahead politically. That coin flip decision to back brexit over remain before the referendum has really worked out for him thus far.

He will do whatever is in his own political interest, if that is no-deal, then no-deal it is. If it is doing a deal with the EU, then a deal he shall do. I don't think he cares too much about the outcome for the UK, he is focused on himself.

At worst, he has presumably calculated that the EU, being a rational player, will do a deal that is in its own interest at any point Johnson decides he wants one. He can play chicken all he wants as long as it gains him support, as soon as he wants to get off the ride, the EU will help him down. The impact such a deal, or his posturing before hand, has on the UK is of lesser importance. Like a lot of populists he realises that reality in politics is something that can be manipulated easily enough and less heed needs to be paid to it than to optics and public perception.

VinLieger · 09-08-2019 04:26PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

But you never get the forex rate in folding currency transactions. There's always a transaction fee and/or commission. I was in an Irish PO the other day and they were buying sterling cash at around 95p to the Euro. A better rate than that chap got, but still a couple of pence less than the day rate on forex markets.

The rate that guys was practically parity though, comparing that to a 95p rate when dealing with for example 300 euro as he did is a difference of 15-20 euro.

Im not disagreeing that sterling is FUBAR but people are right to point out that using the post office exchange rate is quite disingenuous.

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 04:28PM

VinLieger wrote: »

The rate that guys was practically parity though, comparing that to a 95p rate when dealing with for example 300 euro as he did is a difference of 15-20 euro.

Im not disagreeing that sterling is FUBAR but people are right to point out that using the post office exchange rate is quite disingenuous.

Which is more disingenuous, the notional market rate at a given point in time, or the actual rate the ordinary punter has to pay?

prawnsambo · 09-08-2019 04:33PM

VinLieger wrote: »

The rate that guys was practically parity though, comparing that to a 95p rate when dealing with for example 300 euro as he did is a difference of 15-20 euro.

Im not disagreeing that sterling is FUBAR but people are right to point out that using the post office exchange rate is quite disingenuous.

Well it seems to be a regular enough occurrence lately. I've seen two other tweets recently along the same lines. One was a photo of an ATM screen giving parity and another was a guy who had spent £320 to get €300. Can't remember (if I even noted it) who the broker/bank was in those cases, but they both had backup in the form of photos. Obvious rip-offs clearly, but I've not seen anyone in the replies to those tweets suggesting any cheaper source than online fx brokers.

First Up · 09-08-2019 04:36PM

Imreoir2 wrote:

At worst, he has presumably calculated that the EU, being a rational player, will do a deal that is in its own interest at any point Johnson decides he wants one. He can play chicken all he wants as long as it gains him support, as soon as he wants to get off the ride, the EU will help him down.

More like they will let him fall down. The EU has always been sensitive to the political realities in member states and worked with them in doing what was possible. The UK govt seems to think the same will apply in their situation. They are making a serious mistake; they need to look at how the EU deals with non members.

I heard Ivan Rogers (former UK ambass to EU) describe how his Swiss colleague warned him what the UK could expect. It wasn't pretty.

fash · 09-08-2019 04:37PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't think Johnson is a disaster capitalist, he wants to be a great British statesman

I don't think he has thought beyond "(getting into [check] and) remaining in power for as long as possible". I doubt he is thinking of his legacy..

VinLieger · 09-08-2019 04:38PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Which is more disingenuous, the notional market rate at a given point in time, or the actual rate the ordinary punter has to pay?

But this is what im trying to say the Post Offices rates are not the same as you would get in a bank or airport exchange to buy Sterling vs Euro.

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 04:48PM

fash wrote: »

I don't think he has thought beyond "(getting into [check] and) remaining in power for as long as possible". I doubt he is thinking of his legacy..

Oh come on, no one wants to be leader of the UK without fantisies about being the next Churchill. No normal person would want to lead the UK right now, but someone like Johnson sees it as an opportunity to be the leader that defines the next 50 years of Britain's history, at least. Leading the UK through the greatest challenge it has faced since the war.

Obviously he could end up being an infamous leader, but if he hangs in there long enough, and gets lucky, he might get to write the official version of events himself and have history remember him as a great leader. Its a long shot from our point of view, but we don't really understand the mentality of brexit in the first place. Overseeing a somewhat less than totally disasterous Brexit could be enough to have him hailed a hero in todays Britain.

trellheim · 09-08-2019 04:53PM

But this is what im trying to say the Post Offices rates are not the same as you would get in a bank or airport exchange to buy Sterling vs Euro

The Post Office is marketed heavily in the UK as a place to buy foreign currency before you go. (As is ours ... )

If this keeps up you will see euro-27 suppliers ripping up sterling contracts if they possibly can unless they've hedged but i'd say betting the other side is going to take some risk premium so likely they won't be able to hedge too much more unless Cummings sets out their bottom lines ( the real ones )

reslfj · 09-08-2019 04:55PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

...
Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

I for one has (almost) always pointed out the WA text " - sans transition periods", which are of much more need and value to the UK and a major concession from the EU27.

But the WA text is only the prerequisite for even starting post Brexit day negotiations on anything else. The EU27 can wait and wait. Negotiations will, however, very shortly after Brexit be of the utmost urgency for the UK - politically first and a little later for the UK economy.

There will very likely be more - for the UK very unpleasant EU27 demands - following the ratification of the WA text. The WA has always been described as the easy part.

One of the only cards of any value the UK still holds is "an orderly Brexit", which are very much wanted in Brussels and among the EU27 members.

If the UK discard "the orderly Brexit" with a 'No deal' Brexit, it will have significant less leverage in future negotiations.

We may in fact start a discussion on points the EU27 might or even should demand as extras from Little-UK following a 'No Deal' Brexit?

Lars

Imreoir2 · 09-08-2019 04:56PM

Just to put the currency rate into perspective, Sterling has lost 25% of its value since its high point back in 2015.

Warnings of the worst case scenario are that it would lose another 25% off its current value in a no-deal Brexit.

Stop moaning ffs · 09-08-2019 05:02PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

This just shows how wonderful how the Brexit planning is going...
https://twitter.com/ZoltanKarlovits/status/1159131723885682688

If it’s no deal on the 31st and it happens, I’ve no interest or understanding in the markets but I’m Going to stay up all night and watch for Japan’s and a cascade effect of the pound plummeting through the floor in different time zones.

They deserve it at this stage.

Water John · 09-08-2019 05:08PM

If it keeps going towards Brexit between now and 31st Oct, the financial market will factor this in and will be mostly corrected by the fall out date.
Fund Managers and Currency Exchange guys won't suddenly wake up on the 31st and go,'Oh sh1t'.

Stop moaning ffs · 09-08-2019 05:12PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Oh come on, no one wants to be leader of the UK without fantisies about being the next Churchill. No normal person would want to lead the UK right now, but someone like Johnson sees it as an opportunity to be the leader that defines the next 50 years of Britain's history, at least. Leading the UK through the greatest challenge it has faced since the war.

Obviously he could end up being an infamous leader, but if he hangs in there long enough, and gets lucky, he might get to write the official version of events himself and have history remember him as a great leader. Its a long shot from our point of view, but we don't really understand the mentality of brexit in the first place. Overseeing a somewhat less than totally disasterous Brexit could be enough to have him hailed a hero in todays Britain.

You’ve got it in one.
He doesn’t care about the circumstances the country facing. He’s getting to live out his Churchill cosplay fantasy in real time.
That’s all he cares about.
A little bit of me wants him to just scrape through and dump the DUP put the border in the sea deliver brexit and no better man to spin that as a victory. Even though a deal is still awful for Britain. A no deal is worse though by an immeasurable degree and that’s his plan it seems.

fash · 09-08-2019 05:21PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

A no deal is worse though by an immeasurable degree and that’s his plan it seems.

I'm not convinced it is worse from his perspective

fash · 09-08-2019 05:24PM

reslfj wrote: »

One of the only cards of any value the UK still holds is "an orderly Brexit", which are very much wanted in Brussels and among the EU27 members.

Whether accurate or not, they think they have an opportunity to threaten to lock in to the US world system and out of the EU world system and that that is something of value for the EU to lose.

reslfj · 09-08-2019 05:37PM

fash wrote: »

Whether accurate or not, they think they have an opportunity to threaten to lock in to the US world system and out of the EU world system and that that is something of value for the EU to lose.

The US is no substitute for UK trade with the EU27 - not by a thousand miles.

The UK may try the US, but the EU27 can just wait them out - and "for the UK very unpleasant" will be a huge understatement of what will then happen.

Don't play with stones when you live in a house of glass.

Lars

PeadarCo · 09-08-2019 05:49PM

Leroy42 wrote:

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

The issue is though to take the analogy further is you can play chicken if both you and person going head on are in a car. However it doesn't work if the other person is in a tank and can absorb the collision and continue on while you get flattened.

A no deal Brexit would damage the EU and especially Ireland however far less in the long run than letting a country like the UK pick and choose. It's something I haven't seen from Brexiters, they don't seem to appear to understand the options they are presenting to the EU and especially Ireland. The EUs negotiation position is also determined by certain political and economic realities ie you can't let a country pick and choose or the EU falls apart. And in Irelands case the choice is either stay in the EU or leave and join a customs Union and single market with the UK.

The option that the EU and Ireland will choose is obvious to anyone fimilar with a good understanding of the politics of the EU and Ireland. However Brexiters especially don't appear to understand the real politic of the EU and especially Ireland.

dresden8 · 09-08-2019 06:12PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

After they crash out the EU can't "give" them anything.

They will be a 3rd country and there will have to be a renegotiation process that will have to be approved by every government and some regional parliaments.

Pop out and then pop back in is not guaranteed.

prawnsambo · 09-08-2019 06:43PM

dresden8 wrote: »

After they crash out the EU can't "give" them anything.

They will be a 3rd country and there will have to be a renegotiation process that will have to be approved by every government and some regional parliaments.

Pop out and then pop back in is not guaranteed.

The amusing thing is that since the start of this process, the actual rules were forgotten about on the UK side. Constant running around Europe trying to persuade various leaders to do deals with them. And they clearly believed this was possible. Even now, if the above analysis is true, they still don't seem to get it. It would be funny if they came back and were pointed to the relevant section of the Lisbon Treaty and told to form an orderly queue behind Turkey.

steddyeddy · 09-08-2019 06:57PM

The UK economy is shrinking with the value of the pound approaching the value of the Euro.

All reported on by the Telegraph, one of the leading cheerleaders for their employee, BJ.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/09/markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-ftse-red-growth/

Joe_ Public · 09-08-2019 06:59PM

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Watching that Mark Francois clip, I notice that his debating rival mentioned the mistakes made by generals who “believed in Britain” in the past.

This is something that should probably be mentioned more often. Every time a Brexiter invokes the Blitz spirit of WWII, they should be reminded that there as a war before that in which huge swathes of the ordinary youth of Britain were sacrificed because of the arrogant and imperialistic follies of the upper classes and political elites ... WWI is a much better metaphor for this sh*tshow

I've been reading Cornelius Ryan's A Bridge Too Far this past week, the classic account of Montgomery's utterly failed Market Garden campaign to take a crucial bridgehead over the Rhine and what struck me about reading it were the unmistakeable echoes of the current Brexit fiasco. Before the air landings even got underway, the Dutch resistance along with the Dutch senior army staff had tried vainly to warn the British that they were heading for disaster - the roads were too narrow to support the main tank assault while the landing zones were too far from their main target areas to be feasible. For their troubles the Dutch were basically told to butt out of it, what they did know about war anyway? When it all did go spectacularly t"ts up, as the Dutch had confidently forecast, how did the British react? Why, they blamed the weather of course! Nothing to do with their lack of preparation or Montgomery's supreme arrogance.

farmerval · 09-08-2019 07:12PM

I think there's one thing missing in uch of the analysis it's that Boris Johnson doesn't give two figs about Brexit, hard/soft/medium, orderly or not.
All he cares about is being PM. He's sold out the very few morals he may have had in pursuit of this goal.
Rock hard pro brexit cabinet and the likes of Dominic Cummings are the way he sees as his best chance to force and win an election. Nothing else matters to him. His only goal is to win an election and get 5 years as PM.
Cummings on the other hand seems to have some fairly scary opinions/ obsessions. Disappointingly the opposition in the UK is really dreadful, week after week for the last three years of Jeremy Corbin unable to score the simplest goals against Theresa May.
Cummings "brilliance" really has yet to be proven, with probably 85% of mainstream media having paved the way with unending anti EU and anti Eastern Europe invective as well as the pro remain campaign being a disaster opened the way for the referendum result.
After Alaister Darlings absolutely dreadful campaign to get Scotland to remain in the UK was successful Cameron must have thought this referendum lark was easy.

farmerval · 09-08-2019 07:18PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

I believe that's why the cabinet make up is as it is, there's zero voices of reason there, everyone is singing the same suicide song, this is really taking it to the very very edge of playing chicken.
The really big issue fro Johnson will be the Brexit party, he cannot under any circumstance have them score seats in a GE. If he does he is legitimising them. this the Big Nr 1 issue for the Tories. How to engineer an election where the Tories are the biggest baddest EU bashing party out there.

dresden8 · 09-08-2019 07:32PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I've been reading Cornelius Ryan's A Bridge Too Far this past week, the classic account of Montgomery's utterly failed Market Garden campaign to take a crucial bridgehead over the Rhine and what struck me about reading it were the unmistakeable echoes of the current Brexit fiasco. Before the air landings even got underway, the Dutch resistance along with the Dutch senior army staff had tried vainly to warn the British that they were heading for disaster - the roads were too narrow to support the main tank assault while the landing zones were too far from their main target areas to be feasible. For their troubles the Dutch were basically told to butt out of it, what they did know about war anyway? When it all did go spectacularly t"ts up, as the Dutch had confidently forecast, how did the British react? Why, they blamed the weather of course! Nothing to do with their lack of preparation or Montgomery's supreme arrogance.

Actually they blamed the Poles. Which was handy as they were busy selling them out to the Soviets.

J Mysterio · 09-08-2019 07:44PM

So... Here is a very... 'confusing' tweet.
Not sure if this man knows that Ireland is in fact an idependent, sovereign country.

https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1159489584948043777

lawred2 · 09-08-2019 07:49PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

So... Here is a very... 'confusing' tweet.
Not sure if this man knows that Ireland is in fact an idependent, sovereign country.

https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1159489584948043777

It's not that confusing.. in fact I don't see what the issue is

ambro25 · 09-08-2019 08:07PM

reslfj wrote: »

(...)

We may in fact start a discussion on points the EU27 might or even should demand as extras from Little-UK following a 'No Deal' Brexit?

The first 3 are real easy:

1. Brexit bill (upfront, not actuarial: going by Johnson's commitments of late, the Tories have a *big* war chest after the last 9 years)
2. Citizens' rights (status quo ante basis, no "settled status"...ties up with 6 below afterwards)
3. RoI/NI backstop (unconditional, no PD sweetener pill)

I'd suggest that they top that up with-

4. Compensate the EU 27 for resources engaged in any and all contingency planning directly attributable to UK government positions in period, including 100% EU agencies relocation costs
5. Contribute to the EU budget for keeping the indirect benefit of these EU contingency measures (pay for priviledge of being kept alive, not quite 'rescued')
6. Full FoM for EU27 (new arrivals post-Brexit, standard EU-like registration only, and free of course)

and for extra trolling points (God level)-

7. Schengen (no need for EU membership for that)

...for starters.

Then we can look at sectorial salami-slicing in the EU27's interest. Get in there before the US, and why not.

J Mysterio · 09-08-2019 08:15PM

lawred2 wrote: »

It's not that confusing.. in fact I don't see what the issue is

On reflection, maybe it's not so bad.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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