Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 08:16PM

PeadarCo wrote: »

Mancomb Seepgood wrote:

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

Why is this line being entertained any more. German car manufacturers won't put pressure on the German government and haven't. We are 3 years on from the Brexit vote and when is this pressure coming? From memory the German automotive industry have come out with statements to the effect that they value the integrity of the EU single market and customs union above a brexit deal.

Plus the Brits wont be able to afford a German car after brexit, actually some of them wont need a car to get to work anyway

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 08:20PM

jm08 wrote: »

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

Yes, it was Ray Bassett.

Jonathan Powell (who was the UK's Chief Negotiator for the GFA, reckons that Boris will dump the DUP.

Summary here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/johnson-will-abandon-dup-for-free-trade-deal-jonathan-powell-predicts-1.3976861

There was a woman on from one of the universities and who does a lot of work around the border area, and she was saying that the real big worry is Preti Patel and her abolishing of Human Rights agenda.

The uk should have had Jonathan Powell leading their negotiating team if he would have agreed to do it, he seems to have all the traits of a good negotiator and has a certain charm as well

FrancieBrady · 04-08-2019 08:22PM

I wonder has anyone modelled how much Brexit will be worth to the Irish exchequer.
It seems to be assumed that there will be goods flooding across from NI into the south. But if the economy in Britain tanks the very real likelihood is goods will be flooding north, as things get more expensive and scarce there surely?

Capt'n Midnight · 04-08-2019 08:30PM

volchitsa wrote: »

Yeah but French people pay those too, so there's no possible conflict with the rules of free movement.

From what I gather the French put more tolls on the routes from Germany to Spain ( / direction ) but less on those from Paris to the Med ( \ direction )

In Switzerland the trick was to have an annual vignette for €90 odd euro for motorway travel. Cheap for locals who use it daily. But very expensive for German tourists using it on a holiday round trip.

Europeans can be sneaky.

Mancomb Seepgood · 04-08-2019 08:31PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

I understand giving alternative views an airing occasionally but thought it was odd when 2 - 3 of them on that panel were coming out with very servile stuff (pretty much "drop the backstop" [somehow] & hope + pray the Brexiters forgive us for the insolence).
Had to turn it off.

Agreed.It was painful stuff to listen to.Jonathan Powell was making a lot of sense though.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-08-2019 08:34PM

First Up wrote: »

The ferry operators have a good handle on demand and customer preferences. They talk to them all the time.

Subsidies have very limited scope; they can be used creatively to encourage companies to try a new service but not to interfere with competition.

Oh, the UK know all about Ferry subsidies.

They are handing out millions to the French and Danish ferry companies because the contracts were dated at the original leave date and not from when Brexit starts.

They have paid millions to a company that they banned from using ferries in a no-contest because they agreed to pay millions to a company that didn't even have any ferries.

Joe_ Public · 04-08-2019 08:34PM

Incredible waffle, if not downright evasion, from James (not so) Cleverly on sky news earlier this morning. I know we expect as much from these people now but i really had to bite down hard at what was spewing forth from his mouth. He started off with the usual checklist of great recent conservative achievements while in office - more people in work, lowest unemployment since 1970s, wages growing, businesses looking to invest in UK etc - while, naturally, ignoring the obvious caveats of more and more people forced into low grade, zero contract hour jobs with continuing rises in in-work poverty and working families accessing food banks as a result. Not to mention the fact that foreign companies are mostly looking to the UK as an investment opportunity as the pound spirals and some juicy cheap bargains suddenly loom on the horizon.

The question then turned to the £1.8bn Johnson is pledging to upgrade 20 hospitals and where the money was coming from. "It's coming from economic growth," Cleverly replied. But growth is only at 2009 levels, the interviewer pointed out. No problem, Cleverly countered. With Crossrail, freeports and other big projects, these would spur economic growth and provide more tax receipts for the exchequer. So you're talking about future growth, the interviewer shot back, which means the money now will have to be borrowed? Upon which Cleverly instantly launched into a rant against Labour and all the billions of unfunded pledges it was throwing out. At which point my irony-ometer self-combusted and i had to change the channel to rescue something for the day ahead!

Lackadaisical · 04-08-2019 08:38PM

First Up wrote: »

The ferry operators have a good handle on demand and customer preferences. They talk to them all the time.

Subsidies have very limited scope; they can be used creatively to encourage companies to try a new service but not to interfere with competition.

In a crisis, it's quite possible European and domestic competition law would be waived or at least made flexible temporarily in that specific area. The state will likely be able to directly intervene in the market if it has to keep goods moving until things are normalised.

As long as the measures are proportionate, limited and justifiable there are ways of doing that. A crisis is a crisis.

Also just because the UK managed to completely botch their recent efforts at ferry subsidisation, doesn't mean that Ireland will.

Spanish Eyes · 04-08-2019 08:40PM

There is a thing called Sunk Cost Fallacy, I think the Brexiteers are there now.

First Up · 04-08-2019 08:49PM

Lackadaisical wrote:

In a crisis, it's quite possible European competition law would be waived temporarily in that specific area. The state will likely be able to directly intervene in the market if it has to keep goods moving until things are normalised.

Not really. Greece doesn't get subsidies because their goods have to go through the Balkans to get to the rest of the EU.

There are numerous sea (and even more air) routes between Ireland and the other 26. If there was a short term logjam as part of the UK's chaotic departure, it is possible the EU would intervene but it would be very temporary and I can't think of what it could be.

murphaph · 04-08-2019 09:01PM

First Up wrote: »

Not really. Greece doesn't get subsidies because their goods have to go through the Balkans to get to the rest of the EU.

There are numerous sea (and even more air) routes between Ireland and the other 26. If there was a short term logjam as part of the UK's chaotic departure, it is possible the EU would intervene but it would be very temporary and I can't think of what it could be.

Let's be honest. Ireland is seen as a better EU member state.

We legalised abortion and gay marriage by referendum. We largely reject xenophobic populism. The country is a tonic when you look at the likes of Poland and Hungary, electing right wing authoritarian governments.

Greece regularly brings up the alleged war reparations owed to it by Germany.

We're more liked. The EU sees more value in actively ensuring we prosper.

First Up · 04-08-2019 09:07PM

murphaph wrote:

Let's be honest. Ireland is seen as a better EU member state.

Irrelevant. If Ireland or Irish companies got any preferential help, Greece would be in like a shot and EU Competition rules would support them.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-08-2019 09:10PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The question then turned to the £1.8bn Johnson is pledging to upgrade 20 hospitals and where the money was coming from. "It's coming from economic growth," Cleverly replied. But growth is only at 2009 levels, the interviewer pointed out. No problem, Cleverly countered. With Crossrail, freeports and other big projects, these would spur economic growth and provide more tax receipts for the exchequer. So you're talking about future growth, the interviewer shot back, which means the money now will have to be borrowed? Upon which Cleverly instantly launched into a rant against Labour and all the billions of unfunded pledges it was throwing out. At which point my irony-ometer self-combusted and i had to change the channel to rescue something for the day ahead!

economic growth ?

The BoE are saying there's a one in three chance of a recession , and that's based on them getting a deal.

There's also HS2 which, based on every other similar project ever, is due to go over budget by £50Bn

And Heathrow runway three.

And the £10Bn tax cut Boris handed out to win the leadership.

And the £80Bn a year the economy has lagged behind the rest of the OECD because of Brexit.

No costings yet on the "Free Ports" but expect that they will cannibalise existing tax revenues.

And to offset all of that they'll save £8.9Bn a year,
or rather they will after the divorce bill has been paid.

BluePlanet · 04-08-2019 09:21PM

brickster69 wrote: »

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The EU have said there will be no more negotiations, if that is the case then surely it is good to prepare and inform people what will happen in that case.

There seems to be a belief in the UK, in it's media and from politicians that there are or could be more negotiations.
This is not the case.
The UK is only a member of the EU right now is because the UK government, along with EU27 signed the "Agreement to Extend Brexit".
Are you familiar with the text of that agreement?
You should be.

Please review. The only negotiation possible is the Political Declaration toward a future relationship.

Expecting the EU to rip up the agreement is non-sense.
That's just not the way international relations work.

Now maybe the UK could ask the EU to remove it's signature from that document; that might be something to discuss.
It would immediately drop their membership of the EU.
But since the Agreement to Extend Brexit has a timelimt defined - Oct 31, we may as well just let it bear out.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 04-08-2019 10:01PM

UK election - DUP no longer needed - customs border in the Irish Sea.

That is the only timeline that offers a credible solution.

The only other alternative is for Ireland to leave the customs union and align with the British state (which will never happen).

otnomart · 04-08-2019 10:04PM

marno21 wrote: »

Paul Ryan was the one doing the most pushing behind the bill. He was highly supportive of it.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) was the one who blocked it.

Just seen this:
"Tom Cotton and 44 other Republican senators have signed a letter pledging to support Britain in the event of no-deal and irrespective of how Brexit occurs advocate for a future trade deal with the U.K."

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1158082435965489152

Enzokk · 04-08-2019 10:16PM

otnomart wrote: »

Just seen this:
"Tom Cotton and 44 other Republican senators have signed a letter pledging to support Britain in the event of no-deal and irrespective of how Brexit occurs advocate for a future trade deal with the U.K."

That is interesting, but the problem here for the UK is that the Senate has no say over trade deals. That falls to the Ways and Means Committee in the House holds that power so it seems to be a little meaningless.

UK hopes for quick US trade deal are pie in Brexit sky

This week the issue of Brexit made it across the Atlantic as members of US Congress voiced their concern about its impact on Northern Ireland.

As the new British government veers closer to a no-deal scenario, concern is growing among the politically influential Irish-American lobby about the implications for the Belfast Agreement.

And later in the article you have this quote from the chair of the committee,

“There should be no compromise,” on the backstop he told The Irish Times on the eve of Johnson’s visit to Belfast. “The Good Friday Agreement [or Belfast Agreement] has worked as well as anybody could have imagined. It brought to rest the longest-standing political conflict in the history of the western world, and I don’t think there’s any reason for the Irish Government to back away.”

His intervention follows comments by House speaker Nancy Pelosi in which she said that Congress will not endorse a trade agreement between the United States and the UK if the Belfast Agreement is jeopardised.

In any case you would think there are more pressing things for senators to worry about right now than a trade deal they have little influence over. The rise of white supremacist terrorist should be at the front of their thinking if you ask me.

lawred2 · 04-08-2019 10:20PM

Enzokk wrote: »

That is interesting, but the problem here for the UK is that the Senate has no say over trade deals. That falls to the Ways and Means Committee in the House holds that power so it seems to be a little meaningless.

UK hopes for quick US trade deal are pie in Brexit sky

And later in the article you have this quote from the chair of the committee,

In any case you would think there are more pressing things for senators to worry about right now than a trade deal they have little influence over. The rise of white supremacist terrorist should be at the front of their thinking if you ask me.

It should but remember this is the era of "very fine people on both sides"

Imreoir2 · 04-08-2019 10:38PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

UK election - DUP no longer needed - customs border in the Irish Sea.

That is the only timeline that offers a credible solution.

The only other alternative is for Ireland to leave the customs union and align with the British state (which will never happen).

Or, hard crash in November with much wailing and gnashing of teeth (in the UK), probably followed in the medium term with a chastened UK returning to the table and agreeing to whatever terms the EU imposes at that point while the UK itself faces the threat of disintegration. That could also happen easily enough.

Dont be at yourself · 04-08-2019 10:48PM

I think we’re likely to see the WA pushed through parliament against the government’s wishes, with a general election triggered as a result. Without mass deselections of dissenting MPs, it will be just another can-kicking exercise, of course.

eire4 · 04-08-2019 10:51PM

Enzokk wrote: »

That is interesting, but the problem here for the UK is that the Senate has no say over trade deals. That falls to the Ways and Means Committee in the House holds that power so it seems to be a little meaningless.

UK hopes for quick US trade deal are pie in Brexit sky

And later in the article you have this quote from the chair of the committee,

In any case you would think there are more pressing things for senators to worry about right now than a trade deal they have little influence over. The rise of white supremacist terrorist should be at the front of their thinking if you ask me.

If you took a group photo of the 45 Republican senators they would look very very white and very very male. White supremacist's are part of their voter base so the only work they will be doing in regard to the rise of white supremacists killings will be to offer "thoughts and prayers".

Strazdas · 04-08-2019 10:54PM

eire4 wrote: »

If you took a group photo of the 45 Republican senators they would look very very white and very very male. White supremacist's are part of their voter base so the only work they will be doing in regard to the rise of white supremacists killings will be to offer "thoughts and prayers".

Those guys are a bunch of right wing / hard right Trump flunkies. The UK would want to think long and hard about having anything to do with them.

eire4 · 04-08-2019 10:56PM

otnomart wrote: »

Just seen this:
"Tom Cotton and 44 other Republican senators have signed a letter pledging to support Britain in the event of no-deal and irrespective of how Brexit occurs advocate for a future trade deal with the U.K."

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1158082435965489152

Tom Cotton must really have some ax to grind with Ireland as it was he who earlier this year all by himself blocked a bill passing the senate that would have allocated some visas not used by Australians to Irish people. Not sure why but to pass it had to be unanimous. The first vote was 93-7 in favour with all 7 no's being Republicans including Cotton. A second vote was held and was 99-1 with Cotton being the only no and he refused to budge.

GalwayMark · 04-08-2019 11:04PM

Probably someone that idolises Churchill and comes from the Bible Belt which despises social liberalism so there’s that plus he’s a bat**** neocon so that will keep Harris very pleased.

Strazdas · 04-08-2019 11:05PM

eire4 wrote: »

Tom Cotton must really have some ax to grind with Ireland as it was he who earlier this year all by himself blocked a bill passing the senate that would have allocated some visas not used by Australians to Irish people. Not sure why but to pass it had to be unanimous. The first vote was 93-7 in favour with all 7 no's being Republicans including Cotton. A second vote was held and was 99-1 with Cotton being the only no and he refused to budge.

He has form for writing letters too. He wrote one to Iran with his same bunch of Republican colleagues in 2015 telling them not to sign the nuclear deal with Obama.

The New York Daily News responded by calling Cotton and his pals "traitors".

GalwayMark · 04-08-2019 11:09PM

Trumps interactions with the NY Irish can help but it’s a wake up call to engage with Irish Americans beyond the usual shakedown fundraising and start implementing the birthright program more speedily. Cotton is Scotch Irish so there’s ancestral hatred from that period of history.

FrancieBrady · 04-08-2019 11:13PM

eire4 wrote: »

Tom Cotton must really have some ax to grind with Ireland as it was he who earlier this year all by himself blocked a bill passing the senate that would have allocated some visas not used by Australians to Irish people. Not sure why but to pass it had to be unanimous. The first vote was 93-7 in favour with all 7 no's being Republicans including Cotton. A second vote was held and was 99-1 with Cotton being the only no and he refused to budge.

Bizarre that he refused to take a phone call from Coveney and sent an aide in his place to a meeting in the Irish Embassy about the issue.
Seems to have an already well established dislike.

reslfj · 04-08-2019 11:17PM

volchitsa wrote: »

Yeah but French people pay those too, so there's no possible conflict with the rules of free movement.

Freedom of movement for people has nothing to do with movement in mi/hour or km/hour.
It in not at all about people flying, walking, sailing, driving, going by train or whatever.

FoM for people is about the right to move your main/permanent address to another EU/EEA country with an obligation to have a paid job no later than 90 days after you started staying at your new address.

FoM is also about rights to seek and take a paid job in any EU/EEA country independently of which member state you live in.

If you say: "I move from London to Bristol next week" you are not going to tell about driving on the A4, but about you new job and new house in Bristol.

The house is likely not actually new, only new to you.

Free in the EU FoM has nothing to do with not costing money. It will cost you to move from e.g. Dublin to Paris. You will just be charged the the same as a French or any other EU citizen will be charged.

Lars

PS! FoM for goods will normally include some actual 'km/hour movement', while FoM for services very often, nowadays, are just delivered via computer or telecommunication fibres. Likewise is FoM for capital.

PSS! FoM for people has other rules too - for rich people, pensioners and for students.

GalwayMark · 04-08-2019 11:45PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Bizarre that he refused to take a phone call from Coveney and sent an aide in his place to a meeting in the Irish Embassy about the issue.
Seems to have an already well established dislike.

Summat to do with the Clintons perhaps the guys from Arkansas so there’s enough motive to go around or could’ve been influenced by Loyalist propaganda by someone like Larry Pratt president of GOA which is more hardline than the NRA

jm08 · 05-08-2019 12:01AM

First Up wrote: »

Cork/Roscoff is mostly for holiday runs but Cork/Santander is very much a trucker route (and vessel.)

Not sure how "we" are supposed to ensure that. Commercial demand will decide the routes, although I wouldn't rule out some EU intervention to encourage ferry operators to try a new service or two.

I would presume that the Santander route is for fresh fruit and veg coming from Spain. Sailing time is 26.5 hours.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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