Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 03:34PM

Is that route more expensive?

Leroy42 · 04-08-2019 03:36PM

brickster69 wrote: »

fash wrote: »

When ever this nonsense point is raised, I am left wondering whether the person making it is a troll, a gullible fool or something in between.

Let's pretend for a moment that what you said is an actual plan: so you plan to expropriate all land from the border inland from the border by 40 miles (of note the Rotterdam BIP is 40km -not miles- from the furthest terminal) - and drive out the (mostly Catholic) inhabitants, wall or fence that in and then convert that space into the largest border infrastructure the world has ever known?

What do you do with the inhabitants you drive out? Is your plan to liquidate them?

So what you are saying is that checks cannot be carried out away from the border. That Coveney, Varadkar, UK, WTO and EU are all wrong when they say checks will not be done at the border.

Checks will have to be carried out somewhere either at the border or away from the border. Best hurry up and decide which !

We can't decide as the UK, in taking back control, still haven't worked out what they want.

The EU, hell even the UK itself, is still waiting for the UK to work out it's own strategy. Seems a bit rich to demand that others have answers to a question the UJ hasn't even asked yet.

The solution to the red lines in the backstop.

Stop moaning ffs · 04-08-2019 03:56PM

Matter of days before they threaten us with the landbridge and possible heavy charges. Leo is to press Johnson to make all food livestock and agriculture according to one of the papers. Wonder how that’ll go down.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-08-2019 03:58PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Matter of days before they threaten us with the landbridge and possible heavy charges.

They can't.

That is illegal under WTO.

joeysoap · 04-08-2019 04:00PM

declanflynn wrote: »

Wetherspoon's should be boycotted in Ireland they are just **** holes anyway

Opening in Galway. For an owner that’s very pro Brexit he’s quite happy to build up a business in EU. Bit like Dominick Lawson extolling the virtues of Brexit - from his villa in France.

An Claidheamh · 04-08-2019 04:17PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Seen in another light, if this isn’t a massive FU to Arlene and her DUP pals I don’t know what is

I completely agree, I'm surprised there hasn't been more made of it.

Very un-Fine Gael

And people queueing to have their photographs with him.

prawnsambo · 04-08-2019 04:22PM

declanflynn wrote: »

Is that route more expensive?

I actually don't know. I would imagine there's not much in it. The main advantage of the landbridge is time. but that would go after brexit with delays everywhere.

brickster69 · 04-08-2019 04:22PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

We can't decide as the UK, in taking back control, still haven't worked out what they want.

The EU, hell even the UK itself, is still waiting for the UK to work out it's own strategy. Seems a bit rich to demand that others have answers to a question the UJ hasn't even asked yet.

The solution to the red lines in the backstop.

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The EU have said there will be no more negotiations, if that is the case then surely it is good to prepare and inform people what will happen in that case.

prawnsambo · 04-08-2019 04:27PM

brickster69 wrote: »

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The part where Boris Johnson is saying it. He might actually stick to his word this time, but his track record wouldn't inspire me to bet on it.

PeadarCo · 04-08-2019 04:29PM

brickster69 wrote:

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The issue is what a lot of people point out is that the UK needs a deal. So they leave without a deal on 31st of October and on the 1st of November they still need a deal but would be negotiating from an even weaker position.

So agree we need to prepare for a no deal but that includes how to deal with the UK request for a deal post brexit while they are grappling with the consequences of a no deal which they will unable to prepare sufficiently for.

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 04:39PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

Is that route more expensive?

I actually don't know. I would imagine there's not much in it. The main advantage of the landbridge is time. but that would go after brexit with delays everywhere.

When you say time, is the land bridge much faster in my head there is a lot of changing and messing going via the landbridge

Lackadaisical · 04-08-2019 04:54PM

Any talk of disruption of the land bridge or blockading Irish traffic transiting the UK would be like Canada trying to blockade intra-US traffic between the 48 contiguous United States and Alaska. The consequences would be at the very least trade sanctions.

They wouldn’t be blocking Irish trade but intra EU trade.

Not only that but they would be disrupting a large number of multinational companies who would undoubtedly take legal action and also start to see the UK as an unreliable, rogue state willing to damage business for the sake of jingoism and extreme nationalism. So basically it would be the UK writing its own economic epitaph and joining the fringe of rogue states like Russia, that are seen as unstable and high risk to invest in or transact through.

First Up · 04-08-2019 04:56PM

declanflynn wrote:

When you say time, is the land bridge much faster in my head there is a lot of changing and messing going via the landbridge

Google Maps shows I can get to Paris from Dublin in under 13 hours via the Landbridge (Holyhead ferry and Channel Tunnel.)

That's faster than any ferry direct to France but its based purely on travel time and assumes smooth transfers.

As part of the Single Market, transfers into/through the UK have been smooth enough to allow traders operate very reliable delivery schedules with frequent services and no port delays.

That will change from November; to what extent we don't know yet.

Leroy42 · 04-08-2019 04:58PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

We can't decide as the UK, in taking back control, still haven't worked out what they want.

The EU, hell even the UK itself, is still waiting for the UK to work out it's own strategy. Seems a bit rich to demand that others have answers to a question the UJ hasn't even asked yet.

The solution to the red lines in the backstop.

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The EU have said there will be no more negotiations, if that is the case then surely it is good to prepare and inform people what will happen in that case.

Johnson voted for the WA a few weeks ago. So has he changed his mind? But he won't change it again?

The real issue is that the border is the default when a third country. The EU and UK negotiated a way around that issue but Johnson has changed his mind on accepting it.

The answer therefore lies with whatever the UK decides to do next.

Johnson could take the UK out tomorrow. He has put down preconditions to talks which he knows cannot be met. So what is he waiting for?

Sam Russell · 04-08-2019 05:00PM

declanflynn wrote: »

When you say time, is the land bridge much faster in my head there is a lot of changing and messing going via the landbridge

Diving time of Athlone to Cherbourg is 1.5 hrs to Dublin plus 3 hrs 50 min cherboug to Paris. Ship time is 19 hrs.

Driving time Athlone to Paris via the UK is 15 hrs, but that does not include waiting to load/unload twice.

So by direct route it is 24.5 hrs plus load unload once from ferry. Landbridge is 15 hrs plus two load unload times, twice as much driving time, which has to satisfy tachograph.

Assume the direct route does not require an accompanied driver, then there would not be a lot in it. Delays at Holyhead and Dover might make the direct route quicker.

All told, not a lot in it.

Lackadaisical · 04-08-2019 05:01PM

First Up wrote: »

Google Maps shows I can get to Paris from Dublin in under 13 hours via the Landbridge (Holyhead ferry and Channel Tunnel.)

That's faster than any ferry direct to France but its based purely on travel time and assumes smooth transfers.

As part of the Single Market, transfers into/through the UK have been smooth enough to allow traders operate very reliable delivery schedules with frequent services and no port delays.

That will change from November; to what extent we don't know yet.

The Pont Aven does Cork to Roscoff departing at 16:00 and arriving at 07:00 French Rome (06:00 Irish Time) so 14 hours.

You’re also coming into a much less congested part of France in terms of traffic. Getting out of those smaller ports is very quick.

Deub · 04-08-2019 05:07PM

declanflynn wrote: »

Was in Tesco's today and it crossed my mind should we be building up a stock of non perishable goods that come from the uk or Europe

I think it would be useless. It would only cover for few weeks. Also, storage has a cost so it may actually be cheaper to import products from the continent than storing products from the UK.

First Up · 04-08-2019 05:10PM

Lackadaisical wrote:

The Pont Aven does Cork to Roscoff departing at 16:00 and arriving at 07:00 French Rome (06:00 Irish Time) so 14 hours.

Plus the 8-10 hours for Dublin/Cork and Roscoff/Paris

Kermit.de.frog · 04-08-2019 05:10PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Any talk of disruption of the land bridge or blockading Irish traffic transiting the UK would be like Canada trying to blockade intra-US traffic between the 48 contiguous United States and Alaska. The consequences would be at the very least trade sanctions.

They wouldn’t be blocking Irish trade but intra EU trade.

Not only that but they would be disrupting a large number of multinational companies who would undoubtedly take legal action and also start to see the UK as an unreliable, rogue state willing to damage business for the sake of jingoism and extreme nationalism. So basically it would be the UK writing its own economic epitaph and joining the fringe of rogue states like Russia, that are seen as unstable and high risk to invest in or transact through.

It is illegal under WTO rules to obstruct the trade of a neighbor through your territory like that.

It would be a very dumb thing to try and do.

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 05:12PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

When you say time, is the land bridge much faster in my head there is a lot of changing and messing going via the landbridge

Diving time of Athlone to Cherbourg is 1.5 hrs to Dublin plus 3 hrs 50 min cherboug to Paris. Ship time is 19 hrs.

Driving time Athlone to Paris via the UK is 15 hrs, but that does not include waiting to load/unload twice.

So by direct route it is 24.5 hrs plus load unload once from ferry. Landbridge is 15 hrs plus two load unload times, twice as much driving time, which has to satisfy tachograph.

Assume the direct route does not require an accompanied driver, then there would not be a lot in it. Delays at Holyhead and Dover might make the direct route quicker.

All told, not a lot in it.

So we are kinda ok if the English pull up the drawbridge

FrancieBrady · 04-08-2019 05:12PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is illegal under WTO rules to obstruct the trade of a neighbor through your territory like that.

It would be a very dumb thing to try and do.

I wouldn't put it past Brexiteers to try and blockade alá French farmer at this stage.

Sam Russell · 04-08-2019 05:13PM

Deub wrote: »

I think it would be useless. It would only cover for few weeks. Also, storage has a cost so it may actually be cheaper to import products from the continent than storing products from the UK.

I think the poster was thinking of personal stock piles - toilet paper, tinned products, dry goods, etc etc.

The supermarkets (local Tesco) are already showing shortages of some basic products.

First Up · 04-08-2019 05:16PM

declanflynn wrote:

So we are kinda ok if the English pull up the drawbridge

They won't pull it up but if the congestion at UK ports is anything like predicted it will be a lot less attractive and maybe too unreliable for time sensitive shipments.

It isn't a coincidence that we are seeing additional capacity from Ireland to France, Holland and Spain.

Valhallapt · 04-08-2019 05:17PM

Hopefully by this stage the big multiples have already tested alternative supply routes and products. I did hear someone say that aldi/lidl have already reduced the % of British sourced goods substantially.

I hope the others don’t leave it until Brexit day and then find we run out of certain basics. The English media would love that.

Lackadaisical · 04-08-2019 05:18PM

First Up wrote: »

Plus the 8-10 hours for Dublin/Cork and Roscoff/Paris

Why wood goods be exclusively going to central Paris or from central Dublin? Most of the biggest exporters south of Dublin City are 2h or less from Cork and a lot of the agrifood sector is located in the south of the country anyway as are big exporters like pharma and so on.

The time to and from the existing ports isn’t being considered in your statement. For example accessing Dublin Port isn’t all that easy a lot of the time due to increasing congestion on the M50.

Access across England isn’t always easy either and the southern English ports are often very slow even now.

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 05:18PM

Deub wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

Was in Tesco's today and it crossed my mind should we be building up a stock of non perishable goods that come from the uk or Europe

I think it would be useless. It would only cover for few weeks. Also, storage has a cost so it may actually be cheaper to import products from the continent than storing products from the UK.

I just meant stocking up on stuff at a household level

Igotadose · 04-08-2019 05:19PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think the poster was thinking of personal stock piles - toilet paper, tinned products, dry goods, etc etc.

The supermarkets (local Tesco) are already showing shortages of some basic products.

Stockpiling is probably already happening. HMG's been coy about it for some time, but supposedly there're plans. Latest is that Xmas season foods will be what's in storage in October, so enjoy your pudding and goose a couple months early: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/no-deal-brexit-christmas-food-disruption_uk_5d430fd7e4b0acb57fc91c6a

brickster69 · 04-08-2019 05:20PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is illegal under WTO rules to obstruct the trade of a neighbor through your territory like that.

It would be a very dumb thing to try and do.

Same for UK goods going through the EU presumably ?

FrancieBrady · 04-08-2019 05:23PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Same for UK goods going through the EU presumably ?

They'll have to be checked. There is no checking requirement for goods transiting through the UK for the continent.

Igotadose · 04-08-2019 05:23PM

And, if this is what their media blitz gets them, well, good luck BoJo.

Apparently, IDS thinks Brexit's just like the Reformation. Some actual functioning humans have an issue with that:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/iain-duncan-smith-dunce-brexit-telegraph_uk_5d4563e1e4b0ca604e329463

Among the embedded quotes: "Duncan Smith is a Catholic. The English reformation made his faith illegal for 300 years and led to the murder, torture and abuse of his fellow believers. A stupid man, with no grasp of history."

and
"why do these dunces abuse history in the name of their simple- minded prejudices. 1) the Reformation was a pan European phenomenon, 2) it created a religious civil war in Britain that lasted 2 centuries"

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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