Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Foghladh · 21-07-2019 10:08PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I don’t know what planet you’re living on but it doesn’t sound like the britain we’ve all been dealing with for the last 800 years never mind the last three.

Possibly you need to disentangle modern day Britain from the one you've been personally dealing with for the past 800 years

reslfj · 21-07-2019 10:16PM

McGiver wrote: »

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

SM is fundamentally 'standard, rule and regulatory alignment'.

Both CU and regulatory alignment for goods is a must across a frictionless land border. The backstop as now in the WA has a UK wide CU and regulatory alignment for NI.

The UK wide CU will do away with tariffs and thus most incentives to monetise smuggling.
But for the land border itself both a CU and the SM in NI is what is required.

The Irish Sea customs border between the island of GB and NI is the efficient NI solution for Brexit.

Lars

Sam Russell · 21-07-2019 10:21PM

reslfj wrote: »

SM is fundamentally 'standard, rule and regulatory alignment'.

Both CU and regulatory alignment for goods is a must across a frictionless land border. The backstop as now in the WA has a UK wide CU and regulatory alignment for NI.

The UK wide CU will do away with tariffs and thus most incentives to monetise smuggling.
But for the land border itself both a CU and the SM in NI is what is required.

The Irish Sea customs border between the island of GB and NI is the efficient NI solution for Brexit.

Lars

VAT alignment is important because of the VAT carousel yrick which is great for a smuggler. NI has to maintain the VAT connection that EU gives.

McGiver · 21-07-2019 10:24PM

reslfj wrote:

The Irish Sea customs border between the island of GB and NI is the efficient NI solution for Brexit.

Exactly, I'd add the only solution and the HMG know that (at least the civil service). Or Norway+ as I said, but that's kind of a pointless exercise, de facto a vassal state status in exchange of keeping sterling and an illusion of sovereignty.

Stop moaning ffs · 21-07-2019 10:54PM

Foghladh wrote: »

Possibly you need to disentangle modern day Britain from the one you've been personally dealing with for the past 800 years

Are you even from here?
Get them to disentangle themselves from Northern Ireland and put a border in the sea and we all have a much clearer path through all of this.

But you’re aware of this I’m sure.

Strazdas · 21-07-2019 11:04PM

McGiver wrote: »

Exactly, I'd add the only solution and the HMG know that (at least the civil service). Or Norway+ as I said, but that's kind of a pointless exercise, de facto a vassal state status in exchange of keeping sterling and an illusion of sovereignty.

Norway is not a "vassal state" of the EU. Indeed, it is impossible for any country to be a vassal state under it seeing as it is a union of 28 equals and with no central power.

upupup · 21-07-2019 11:04PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I wouldn't want to put my faith in the Democrats - despite German and Irish being the largest and second-largest self-reported ancestry groups in the United States. Think African Americans are third.

We have very little clout in Washington unfortunately. We have a St. Patrick's Day date and that's it.

You see Irish names pop up all the time. Generals, politicians, governors ect. ect. But they have no sincere connection with Ireland. Maybe 100 years ago it'd be different.

The Democrats will use the GFA and Brexit against The Trump trade deal.
The Democrats that do care about peace in Ireland have our backs and the Democrats that don't care about peace also have our backs because they will use this as a weapon to punish Trump

BonnieSituation · 21-07-2019 11:16PM

Foghladh wrote: »

I'm not the one generalising an entire country. I doubt that your idea of the average Brit is anywhere near accurate anymore than a British person could know what the average Irish person is like

Doubt away I guess

Stop moaning ffs · 21-07-2019 11:18PM

upupup wrote: »

The Democrats will use the GFA and Brexit against The Trump trade deal.
The Democrats that do care about peace in Ireland have our backs and the Democrats that don't care about peace also have our backs because they will use this as a weapon to punish Trump

The Irish lobby in Congress and senate is considerable and from both sides of the aisle.
Britain has been warned any version of brexit that threatens peace here will see any trade deals with the US the UK are hoping for, die on the vine.

This isn’t just recently either.

Charles Babbage · 21-07-2019 11:22PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Who cares what an International treaty does not state. What is written down in black and white is all that matters.

Things like

We are committed to partnership, equality and mutual respect as the basis of relationships within Northern Ireland, between North and South, and between these islands.

...the power of the sovereign government with jurisdiction there shall be exercised with rigorous impartiality on behalf of all the people in the diversity of their identities and traditions and shall be founded on the principles of full respect for, and equality of, civil, political, social and cultural rights, of freedom from discrimination for all citizens, and of parity of esteem and of just and equal treatment for the identity, ethos, and aspirations of both communities;

ThePanjandrum · 22-07-2019 12:30AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is not happening under any Irish Gov. The first pressure point in a 'No-Deal' scenario is the British border at Dover port. When that is sorted then the attention will turn to the British border in Ireland.

If the British Gov decides to inspect at Larne for agriculture and hygiene as they do now (but 100% inspection) then the problem reduces.

Why not? The Belfast Agreement is about Northrrn Ireland and its relationship with Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom which are the only other parties to the agreement.

If a hard border with Ireland would breach the Agreement then so would a hard border with mainland Britain and a sea border would come within this definition.

The EU excluding Ireland is not a party to the Agreement so that a hard border between any of the parties and the EU does not breach the Agreement. Hence, a hard border between the United Kingdom and France does nor Breach the Agreement.

Therefore, as a border between Northern Ireland and either of the other two parties would breach the Agreement, the solution is to have a border between Ireland and the EU.

So the border is Ireland's problem, not the UK's.

jm08 · 22-07-2019 12:35AM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I wouldn't want to put my faith in the Democrats - despite German and Irish being the largest and second-largest self-reported ancestry groups in the United States. Think African Americans are third.

We have very little clout in Washington unfortunately. We have a St. Patrick's Day date and that's it.

You see Irish names pop up all the time. Generals, politicians, governors ect. ect. But they have no sincere connection with Ireland. Maybe 100 years ago it'd be different.

They say nothing happens in the US without the say-so of the three 'I's. Irish, Italian and Israelis/jews.

A good example as to the kind of support that the Irish-American caucus can drump up is on the recent vote in both congress and the senate where only one person voted against giving the excess Australian visas to Ireland. Paul Ryan (Rep). who was leader of the senate sponsored that Bill.

Richard Neal, Chairman of the Ways & Means Committee (which scrutinise all trade agreements) was brought up by his grandmother and aunt who are from Northern Ireland. He was involved in the Peace Process and was here recently with Nancy Pelosi. Next to the Israelis, Ireland is the most powerful group in the US and it can deliver a huge vote. Thats how Clinton got involved with the Peace Process - he was after the Irish-American vote.

ThePanjandrum · 22-07-2019 12:37AM

McGiver wrote: »

Why? Because for all Ireland economy to function frictionlessly and no physical border to exist, EU membership is required for both NI and RoI, or more specifically both NI and RoI to be in a regulatory alignment and both in the SM as well as the CU. This was all assumed to continue when the GFA was signed. The GFA is predicated on EU membership of both jurisdictions. Brexit completely disrupts the predicament and is almost impossible to achieve without breaking the GFA.

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

Your reasoning fails you here. Neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic being in the EU would also satisfy the border problem. You seem to have forgotten this.

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 12:38AM

jm08 wrote: »

They say nothing happens in the US without the say-so of the three 'I's. Irish, Italian and Israelis/jews.

A good example as to the kind of support that the Irish-American caucus can drump up is on the recent vote in both congress and the senate where only one person voted against giving the excess Australian visas to Ireland. Paul Ryan (Rep). who was leader of the senate sponsored that Bill.

Richard Neal, Chairman of the Ways & Means Committee (which scrutinise all trade agreements) was brought up by his grandmother and aunt who are from Northern Ireland. He was involved in the Peace Process and was here recently with Nancy Pelosi. Next to the Israelis, Ireland is the most powerful group in the US and it can deliver a huge vote. Thats how Clinton got involved with the Peace Process - he was after the Irish-American vote.

Ryan voted against that?

Hope we all remember that next time he’s banging on about his Irish heritage.
Loathsome individual anyway.

Charles Babbage · 22-07-2019 12:39AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Therefore, as a border between Northern Ireland and either of the other two parties would breach the Agreement, the solution is to have a border between Ireland and the EU.

The solution is for Britain to respect the GFA and stay in the Single Market so no border is needed.

marno21 · 22-07-2019 12:44AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ryan voted against that?

Hope we all remember that next time he’s banging on about his Irish heritage.
Loathsome individual anyway.

Paul Ryan was the one doing the most pushing behind the bill. He was highly supportive of it.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) was the one who blocked it.

jm08 · 22-07-2019 12:56AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ryan voted against that?

Hope we all remember that next time he’s banging on about his Irish heritage.
Loathsome individual anyway.

Ryan is decent enough (for a Republican!). I don't think he liked the Trump kind of politics and probably why he got out. Wouldn't be surprised if he is a future Presidential candidate.

jm08 · 22-07-2019 01:10AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Your reasoning fails you here. Neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic being in the EU would also satisfy the border problem. You seem to have forgotten this.

What the backstop does is facilitate the operation of an All-Ireland economy and the 140+ areas of co-operation. The border down the Irish Sea is only for animal health and food checks which is happening now with the full approval of the late Rev. Ian Paisley.

Last weeks, food stuffs contaminated with African Swine Fever were detected in Northern Ireland which would have probably come through GB and were not detected there.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/african-swine-fever-traces-found-in-meat-seized-entering-northern-ireland-38304726.html

Peregrinus · 22-07-2019 02:13AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not? The Belfast Agreement is about Northrrn Ireland and its relationship with Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom which are the only other parties to the agreement.

If a hard border with Ireland would breach the Agreement then so would a hard border with mainland Britain and a sea border would come within this definition.

The EU excluding Ireland is not a party to the Agreement so that a hard border between any of the parties and the EU does not breach the Agreement. Hence, a hard border between the United Kingdom and France does nor Breach the Agreement.

Therefore, as a border between Northern Ireland and either of the other two parties would breach the Agreement, the solution is to have a border between Ireland and the EU.

No, no, no. The solution is to conduct Brexit in a way that does not require a border either between NI and GB or between NI and RoI. Which is very much in line with what people were told they would get by the Leave campaigns; a Brexit which did not hamper the UK's ability to trade internationally. And which is perfectly feasible and attainable, and entirely consistent with the referendum result. And which would attain the UK's stated objective of "no hard border", and allow it to honour its guarantees. Everyone's a winner!

The problem here is the (post-referendum) decision to go for a hard Brexit. A hard Brexit is impossible without either undermining the GFA, or violating irish sovereignty by demanding changes to Ireland's relationship with the EU (which, to be fair, HMG has never been so stupid as to suggest).

Once hard brexiters have decided that that the GFA must be undermined, the least worst option is to choose the course which does less harm to the GFA, which is increased controls on the GB/NI border, which is in fact the preferred option in NI, and of course in RoI. Hard brexiters who resist this are presumably motivated by the desire to undermine the GFA to the greatest extent possible.

Calina · 22-07-2019 06:12AM

Ireland had no say in the Brexit so a Brexit which compels Ireland to change its trading arrangements with the EU is out of the question.

The UK bought Brexit. The UK pays. This means they do not get to say Ireland segregates from the single market to facilitate their needs. It means the UK stays in the SM and CU and VAT system so that the UK complies with its obligations.

Nody · 22-07-2019 07:10AM

Well back in the global world UK is getting a reality check by Canada as they refuse to roll over the CETA agreement due to Boris promise of zero tariffs in case of crash out; who'd have thought other countries don't want to sign an equal reduction in tariffs deal if you promise zero tariffs to everyone?

One of Liam Fox’s trade envoys has quit in protest that the government’s no-deal Brexit policy threatens the demise of an existing trade deal with Canada worth £800m.

Andrew Percy attacked the “cack-handed” move to scrap or slash tariffs on almost all imports if the UK crashes out of the EU – blaming it for Ottawa’s refusal to “roll over” its existing deal with the EU.

The Conservative MP felt “patronised” by the international trade secretary when he warned him the announcement would backfire, The Independent understands, walking away after almost two years in the Canada role.

Canada made clear its resistance to a rollover after the UK announced, in March, that tariffs would be axed “temporarily” on 87 per cent of imports, after a no-deal Brexit.

The move was designed to stop shoppers being hit by soaraway prices, but the threat to UK jobs from undercutting was branded “a sledgehammer for our economy” by the CBI.

Canada’s government noted the proposal would “provide all WTO [World Trade Organisation] partners, including Canada, with duty-free access for 95 per cent of tariff lines”.

And a spokesperson warned: “Post-Brexit, any future trade arrangement between Canada and the UK would be influenced by the terms of the withdrawal agreed between the UK and the EU, as well as any unilateral UK approaches.”

Sounds like; oh I don't know the countries lining up to bend UK over and take what it wants exactly as warned but that could not be the case since we've been told everyone needs UK after all...

VinLieger · 22-07-2019 07:14AM

Nody wrote: »

Well back in the global world UK is getting a reality check by Canada as they refuse to roll over the CETA agreement due to Boris promise of zero tariffs in case of crash out; who'd have thought other countries don't want to sign an equal reduction in tariffs deal if you promise zero tariffs to everyone?
Sounds like; oh I don't know the countries lining up to bend UK over and take what it wants exactly as warned but that could not be the case since we've been told everyone needs UK after all...

Once again their public pandering to the brexit base kicks them in the teeth. Its like they still dont realise the EU and the rest of the world can also read twitter or the mail/express etc

murphaph · 22-07-2019 08:18AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not? The Belfast Agreement is about Northrrn Ireland and its relationship with Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom which are the only other parties to the agreement.

If a hard border with Ireland would breach the Agreement then so would a hard border with mainland Britain and a sea border would come within this definition.

The EU excluding Ireland is not a party to the Agreement so that a hard border between any of the parties and the EU does not breach the Agreement. Hence, a hard border between the United Kingdom and France does nor Breach the Agreement.

Therefore, as a border between Northern Ireland and either of the other two parties would breach the Agreement, the solution is to have a border between Ireland and the EU.

So the border is Ireland's problem, not the UK's.

...or Brexit is fundamentally incompatible with the GFA because the only way to implement it without damaging the GFA is to compel another sovereign state to leave the EU against its expressed wishes.

You guys did not think this through enough before the referendum. That is the UK's problem.

IAmTheReign · 22-07-2019 09:23AM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I wouldn't want to put my faith in the Democrats - despite German and Irish being the largest and second-largest self-reported ancestry groups in the United States. Think African Americans are third.

We have very little clout in Washington unfortunately. We have a St. Patrick's Day date and that's it.

You see Irish names pop up all the time. Generals, politicians, governors ect. ect. But they have no sincere connection with Ireland. Maybe 100 years ago it'd be different.

In fairness the St. Patricks Day thing is huge. What other country of only 4 million people gets a guaranteed invitation to the White House to meet with the president every single year?

US politicians may not have a sincere connection to Ireland but that's not really whats important. Their voters do, and politicians want to keep their voters happy. Being tough with Britain and supporting Ireland wins them easy votes.

Enzokk · 22-07-2019 10:04AM

Yesterday we were going to have the EU change the backstop and give in to the UK by way of compromise, today the EU is preparing a package to help offset the damage that no-deal Brexit will do to Ireland.

EU prepares huge aid package for Ireland

The European Commission is drawing up a multibillion-pound aid package for Ireland to offset the economic damage of a no-deal Brexit, The Times understands.

The bloc would “spend whatever was necessary” to support the Irish government through any disruption of trade, a senior EU diplomat said.

European leaders have privately told Boris Johnson that he risks scuppering any prospect of averting a no-deal Brexit by making “totally unrealistic” demands over the Irish backstop.

EU diplomats are understood to have made contact with senior figures close to Mr Johnson early in the campaign and urged him to show “restraint” in setting out his Brexit strategy before entering Downing Street.

As for the EU backing down, well this is not going to happen according to the article.

However, they expressed deep concern that he has hardened his rhetoric in recent days and last week explicitly ruled out any deal that included any form of the present backstop. One said that “dark clouds” had descended after Mr Johnson made his comments during the final debate of the campaign. “This is not simply a business deal that can be unpicked because a new chief executive comes in,” the diplomat said.

“If Europe is seen to give in on this then what message does it send to Trump on trade? What message does it send to Putin on security? For the EU’s own preservation, no deal is preferable than being seen to back down.”

So we have the EU preparing to help us offset some of the damage no-deal will cause and not backing down against the stance of Johnson. Johnson has boxed himself into a corner here, as Tony Blair seems to see as well,

Writing in The Times today Tony Blair says that Mr Johnson appears to have “boxed himself into a no-deal Brexit”. The former Labour leader adds: “The most astonishing thing about Johnson’s position on Brexit is his apparent failure to understand why Theresa May failed . . . The Johnson position is now that Europe should remove the backstop — ‘delete it’ as he says — and have all the border issues dealt with in the future negotiation.

“For Europe to agree to this, it would have to renege on its commitment to Ireland, reopen the guarantee accepted by the UK government that the Irish border would be open for people and goods without friction, and give to Johnson what Europe conspicuously refused to give to May. I see no prospect whatsoever of that happening. None.”

So troubled waters ahead for Johnson from Tuesday. Either he takes the country down the road to no-deal and blows up parliament in his quest to do it, or he backs down and is taken down by the Brexit wing of his party and the Brexit Party at the next General Election. This sideshow to Brexit is some entertainment, just too bad we are being held hostage to it.

*Article is behind paywall, but you can register for free and I was able to read the whole article. It allows you a few articles per month on the Times website.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 10:43AM

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

lawred2 · 22-07-2019 10:45AM

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

Almost every utterance from these uber Tories is in macho big man big talk terms... everything is seen as a school yard fight...

These people need to seriously grow up.

And so do all those listening to such puerile crap.

Tell me how · 22-07-2019 10:53AM

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

That's why Coveney did so well yesterday. He was very clear and adamant that the WAvis agreed and closed. He said directly that just because Britain says it must be renegotiated is not the case.

The audacity of Davis to spout nonsense like this after he was the UK negotiator is like something David Brent would say.

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 11:00AM

Ian Duncan Smith yesterday saying ‘the EU is a master at hard nose negotiations’.
James O Brien made the point that’s a damn good reason not to leave. Never mind have to negotiate against them.

20silkcut · 22-07-2019 11:05AM

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

What will they do to pressure Varadkar??

As Leo says himself he is the EU.
The EU is him.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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