Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Harry Palmr · 04-08-2019 05:27PM

Re stockpiling - the only hope there might be is if there is any of the giant freezer warehousing that used to be full of beef mountain and which is now under utilized, it could be good for some produce for a week or three but other than that Ireland has very little free space for short date consumables I'd say.

Imagine being in Kent or living along the southern part of the M25 on November the 1st, it'll either be a ghost town or a static riot.

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 05:36PM

Igotadose wrote: »

And, if this is what their media blitz gets them, well, good luck BoJo.

Apparently, IDS thinks Brexit's just like the Reformation. Some actual functioning humans have an issue with that:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/iain-duncan-smith-dunce-brexit-telegraph_uk_5d4563e1e4b0ca604e329463

Among the embedded quotes: "Duncan Smith is a Catholic. The English reformation made his faith illegal for 300 years and led to the murder, torture and abuse of his fellow believers. A stupid man, with no grasp of history."

and
"why do these dunces abuse history in the name of their simple- minded prejudices. 1) the Reformation was a pan European phenomenon, 2) it created a religious civil war in Britain that lasted 2 centuries"

I wonder how many Tory MPs are foreigners to the uk I mean parents or grandparents are foreigners
We should call boris, de pfeffel

First Up · 04-08-2019 05:36PM

Lackadaisical wrote:

Why wood goods be exclusively going to central Paris or from central Dublin? Most of the biggest exporters south of Dublin City are 2h or less from Cork and a lot of the agrifood sector is located in the south of the country anyway as are big exporters like pharma and so on.

I gave a comparison between the landbridge and direct ferry on the same route. Of course it depends where you are starting from and where you are going but a lot of Irish exporters have been using the landbridge.

Everyone in that business is re-calibrating to prepare for Brexit fall-out, including the chaos at UK ports. Thats why we now have ferries serving Cork/Santander, Dublin/Cherbourg and Dublin/Antwerp.

Harry Palmr · 04-08-2019 05:44PM

Waterford port also now has a weekly direct link to Rotterdam with the arrival of BG Freight Line.

prawnsambo · 04-08-2019 05:45PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Diving time of Athlone to Cherbourg is 1.5 hrs to Dublin plus 3 hrs 50 min cherboug to Paris. Ship time is 19 hrs.

Driving time Athlone to Paris via the UK is 15 hrs, but that does not include waiting to load/unload twice.

So by direct route it is 24.5 hrs plus load unload once from ferry. Landbridge is 15 hrs plus two load unload times, twice as much driving time, which has to satisfy tachograph.

Assume the direct route does not require an accompanied driver, then there would not be a lot in it. Delays at Holyhead and Dover might make the direct route quicker.

All told, not a lot in it.

I think the way that's managed is container to tractor unit with a local driver hauling it to the next port/destination. Very few accompanied loads going via the landbridge afaik. Usually just stuff to the UK only.

prawnsambo · 04-08-2019 05:47PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Waterford port also now has a weekly direct link to Rotterdam with the arrival of BG Freight Line.

The interesting thing is whether that will ever switch back should brexit be cancelled. A lot of decisions have been made that may never be reversed.

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 05:49PM

De pfeffel's great grandfather was a Muslim, nigel farrages's great grandparents imigrated from Germany to the uk, there was always going to be some tension in that relationship

VinLieger · 04-08-2019 06:32PM

Right its Monday tomorrow anyone wanna take a guess on where the pound will drop to for its weekly plummet? I think its gonna go below 1.08

Strazdas · 04-08-2019 06:33PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Any talk of disruption of the land bridge or blockading Irish traffic transiting the UK would be like Canada trying to blockade intra-US traffic between the 48 contiguous United States and Alaska. The consequences would be at the very least trade sanctions.

They wouldn’t be blocking Irish trade but intra EU trade.

Not only that but they would be disrupting a large number of multinational companies who would undoubtedly take legal action and also start to see the UK as an unreliable, rogue state willing to damage business for the sake of jingoism and extreme nationalism. So basically it would be the UK writing its own economic epitaph and joining the fringe of rogue states like Russia, that are seen as unstable and high risk to invest in or transact through.

David McWilliams makes that point in the article linked to further back in the thread. If they go down the No Deal and pariah state route, their international reputation will take an absolute hammering.

jm08 · 04-08-2019 06:40PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They can't.

That is illegal under WTO.

As well as that, Irish trucks have to pay a tax to use England's roads. So much per trip or about £1200 per annum (as far as I can remember).

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 06:44PM

How did the holyhead area vote in the referendum

volchitsa · 04-08-2019 06:50PM

jm08 wrote: »

As well as that, Irish trucks have to pay a tax to use England's roads. So much per trip or about £1200 per annum (as far as I can remember).

Really?? Would that be legal under EU free movement rules?

Capt'n Midnight · 04-08-2019 06:51PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is illegal under WTO rules to obstruct the trade of a neighbor through your territory like that.

It would be a very dumb thing to try and do.

Forget WTO.

The UK signed up to TIR in 1949.

They need it stuff that goes though the EU eg. Switzerland. There's only about one ferry a week to Norway and there are weekly trains these days from China.

Air is expensive and ships are slow so there's trucks and rail from North Africa, Ex Soviet republics, Middle East

Strazdas · 04-08-2019 07:06PM

declanflynn wrote: »

How did the holyhead area vote in the referendum

For Leave. We don't have any precise figures for the town but we know Anglesey voted Leave and the suspicion is that Holyhead would have been strongly pro-Leave given the town's demographics.

BluePlanet · 04-08-2019 07:09PM

On Mariane Finucane there was somebody saying 'we should capitulate on the backstop!'; literally said that.
I didn't catch his name.
Why are they giving these ppl airtime?

ancapailldorcha · 04-08-2019 07:10PM

Mod: Off topic posts deleted.

Leroy42 · 04-08-2019 07:11PM

The main problem is that Brexit cannot, and isn't designed to, fix the very real issues that resulted in 17.4m people voting for it.

In fact the last 3 years have shown that it will continue to get worse rather than better.

Look at Johnson handing out extra spending promises. This is money that has been held back from these services, like NHS and police, with serious effects on real people just so Tories can hand it out when it suits them to.

Whilst Brexit will likely make the economy worse, more serious is the effects it is having on politics and society.

Mancomb Seepgood · 04-08-2019 07:24PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

On Mariane Finucane there was somebody saying 'we should capitulate on the backstop!'; literally said that.
I didn't catch his name.
Why are they giving these ppl airtime?

I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

jm08 · 04-08-2019 07:29PM

volchitsa wrote: »

Really?? Would that be legal under EU free movement rules?

As far as I know it is. Its just like a road tax for foreign trucks. In France there are tolls.

PeadarCo · 04-08-2019 07:31PM

Mancomb Seepgood wrote:

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

Why is this line being entertained any more. German car manufacturers won't put pressure on the German government and haven't. We are 3 years on from the Brexit vote and when is this pressure coming? From memory the German automotive industry have come out with statements to the effect that they value the integrity of the EU single market and customs union above a brexit deal.

jm08 · 04-08-2019 07:34PM

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

Yes, it was Ray Bassett.

Jonathan Powell (who was the UK's Chief Negotiator for the GFA, reckons that Boris will dump the DUP.

Summary here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/johnson-will-abandon-dup-for-free-trade-deal-jonathan-powell-predicts-1.3976861

There was a woman on from one of the universities and who does a lot of work around the border area, and she was saying that the real big worry is Preti Patel and her abolishing of Human Rights agenda.

Strazdas · 04-08-2019 07:36PM

PeadarCo wrote: »

Why is this line being entertained any more. German car manufacturers won't put pressure on the German government and haven't. We are 3 years on from the Brexit vote and when is this pressure coming? From memory the German automotive industry have come out with statements to the effect that they value the integrity of the EU single market and customs union above a brexit deal.

It goes back to the deeply mistaken idea that the EU is a mere trading bloc and nothing else, concerned solely with balancing the books.

Lackadaisical · 04-08-2019 07:39PM

First Up wrote: »

I gave a comparison between the landbridge and direct ferry on the same route. Of course it depends where you are starting from and where you are going but a lot of Irish exporters have been using the landbridge.

Everyone in that business is re-calibrating to prepare for Brexit fall-out, including the chaos at UK ports. Thats why we now have ferries serving Cork/Santander, Dublin/Cherbourg and Dublin/Antwerp.

TBH, I don't think the Brittany Ferries services are aimed at the freight market. They may be proving the route works, but it's firmly aimed at family holidays to Northern Spain and the Pont Aven is probably far too luxurious to be a freight ferry. It's very much about relatively cruise-inspired holiday travel. It's actually always been a really nice way of getting to France.

We should be ensuring that suitable vessels are available for Cork or Rosslare to France. I would hope they've at least ear marked ferries we could bring in should the demand suddenly go way up.

First Up · 04-08-2019 07:45PM

jm08 wrote:

As far as I know it is. Its just like a road tax for foreign trucks. In France there are tolls.

The tolls apply to everyone.

volchitsa · 04-08-2019 07:48PM

jm08 wrote: »

As far as I know it is. Its just like a road tax for foreign trucks. In France there are tolls.

Yeah but French people pay those too, so there's no possible conflict with the rules of free movement.

First Up · 04-08-2019 07:56PM

Lackadaisical wrote:

TBH, I don't think the Brittany Ferries services are aimed at the freight market. They may be proving the route works, but it's firmly aimed at family holidays to Northern Spain and the Pont Aven is probably far too luxurious to be a freight ferry. It's very much about relatively cruise-inspired holiday travel. It's actually always been a really nice way of getting to France.

Cork/Roscoff is mostly for holiday runs but Cork/Santander is very much a trucker route (and vessel.)

Lackadaisical wrote:

We should be ensuring that suitable vessels are available for Cork or Rosslare to France. I would hope they've at least ear marked ferries we could bring in should the demand suddenly go way up.

Not sure how "we" are supposed to ensure that. Commercial demand will decide the routes, although I wouldn't rule out some EU intervention to encourage ferry operators to try a new service or two.

Lackadaisical · 04-08-2019 08:06PM

First Up wrote: »

Not sure how "we" are supposed to ensure that. Commercial demand will decide the routes, although I wouldn't rule out some EU intervention to encourage ferry operators to try a new service or two.

By ensuring that the contingencies are in place, even if that means hiring ships that are ultimately not used. The EU and the state need to be prepared.

There probably isn't much spare capacity hanging around doing nothing, but I'm sure something could be pulled off at relatively short notice to add a few extra ferries to the route, even if it meant temporarily subsidising them and paying a premium for short notice leases / short term leases until something more permanent could be put in place.

The economic costs of disrupted trade would far outweigh any potentially wasted public spend on this.

Leaving it to commercial companies to just react to demand could result in a serious mess as they may not react quickly enough or may be over cautious about putting capacity in place with a prospect of Brexit not than happening.

fly_agaric · 04-08-2019 08:11PM

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

I understand giving alternative views an airing occasionally but thought it was odd when 2 - 3 of them on that panel were coming out with very servile stuff (pretty much "drop the backstop" [somehow] & hope + pray the Brexiters forgive us for the insolence).
Had to turn it off.

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 08:12PM

Strazdas wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

How did the holyhead area vote in the referendum

For Leave. We don't have any precise figures for the town but we know Anglesey voted Leave and the suspicion is that Holyhead would have been strongly pro-Leave given the town's demographics.

A hard brexit will really help them, all they had going for them was Irish people leaving a few pound in the town while passing tru, it's a while since I went tru it, if memory serves me right it was a right poo hole, let them have their brexit

First Up · 04-08-2019 08:15PM

The ferry operators have a good handle on demand and customer preferences. They talk to them all the time.

Subsidies have very limited scope; they can be used creatively to encourage companies to try a new service but not to interfere with competition.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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