Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Loafing Oaf · 22-07-2019 06:54PM

Inquitus wrote: »

What time do we get the new tomorrow?

You've clearly got high hopes for the Johnson premiership:P

Spectator says it will be announced at 11

Joe_ Public · 22-07-2019 07:05PM

Public unconvinced Brexit will take place by October 31st

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/22/public-unconvinced-brexit-will-take-place-october-

"Worryingly for Johnson, even Conservative and Leave voters are sceptical. Half (50%) of those who voted for Brexit back in 2016 think it’s unlikely to have taken place by November, as do 48% of Tory voters."

A good sign i reckon that some sort of realism is setting in finally. Even tory and leave voters having a hard time signing up to "optimism" it seems.

Headshot · 22-07-2019 07:18PM

I suspect Tom Watson is teetering on the edge of leaving Labour.

Water John · 22-07-2019 07:20PM

He's been dragging them along, not sure why he would go, now.

Headshot · 22-07-2019 07:23PM

Water John wrote: »

He's been dragging them along, not sure why he would go, now.

Tom was backing automatic exclusions for antisemitism and of course Corbyn rejects it.

I feel at this point Tom can only do so much to save his party at this stage.

Water John · 22-07-2019 07:30PM

There has been moves on that issue in the last few days. This is only an hour old;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/22/jeremy-corbyn-ramps-up-plans-to-expel-antisemites-from-party

Headshot · 22-07-2019 07:43PM

Water John wrote: »

There has been moves on that issue in the last few days. This is only an hour old;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/22/jeremy-corbyn-ramps-up-plans-to-expel-antisemites-from-party

I heard about this that Corbyn wants to speed up the process of expelling antisemites from the party but still not going as far as some people like Watson want to go in setting up an automatic exclusions for antisemitism

22-07-2019 08:01PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Public unconvinced Brexit will take place by October 31st

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/22/public-unconvinced-brexit-will-take-place-october-

"Worryingly for Johnson, even Conservative and Leave voters are sceptical. Half (50%) of those who voted for Brexit back in 2016 think it’s unlikely to have taken place by November, as do 48% of Tory voters."

A good sign i reckon that some sort of realism is setting in finally. Even tory and leave voters having a hard time signing up to "optimism" it seems.

I expect it's more of a feeling that their elected leader will let them down and fail to deliver more than anything else.
I doubt that many have changed their minds about whether Brexit should or should not happen, more despair that it is increasingly likely not to happen.

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 08:24PM

How have none of those being anti semetic not been named?

Water John · 22-07-2019 08:33PM

Interesting plain talking from the English man,AIB CEO.
https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-richard-pym-glenties-boris-4734743-Jul2019/

Joe_ Public · 22-07-2019 08:35PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I expect it's more of a feeling that their elected leader will let them down and fail to deliver more than anything else.
I doubt that many have changed their minds about whether Brexit should or should not happen, more despair that it is increasingly likely not to happen.

Yeah, poll doesnt say anything about their preferences, just their level of optimism or, as case may be, pessimism. They should also be aware that if brexit hasnt happened by Nov 1 then the odds of it ever happening go sharply upwards i would think. Not sure if it brings second referendum back into play, but longer this does go on, more the brexiteers should be drawn towards it if it does at least get no deal on some sort of ballot paper. At least, that's a theory anyway.

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-07-2019 08:55PM

All ready for the Boris?

Many markets folks are calling Short on EURGBP and for £Buy.
But overnight the current 0.895 could well see .915.
So hold on to your eurodolla before any correction occurs.

However if your off to sunny Espania from LHR with sterling in hand, you'll want to get EUR (tonight).
Of course just not at the airport (worst place to change).

Mod note: - as long as this is a political prediction rather than financial advice its ok, the latter being more suitable to another forum

Nody · 22-07-2019 09:16PM

Water John wrote: »

Interesting plain talking from the English man,AIB CEO.
https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-richard-pym-glenties-boris-4734743-Jul2019/

Loved this quote:

Pym added that Oxford University has produced the majority of UK prime ministers over the last century.

“For those of you struggling with the difference between Oxford and Cambridge, it is simple. Both are extraordinary world class universities, but Oxford produces the prime ministers and Cambridge the Russian spies. It is hard to know which group has done more harm to the country,” he added.

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-07-2019 09:16PM

^Yes, (fx rate jump) might well simply be the very 1st and most immediate effect of announcement tommorow, and another 24hr uncertain wait before taking office and fully announcing his team on Weds.
The second, will be more pressure (this time from the EU) on an alternative to the backstop (of course there isn't any real alternative).

The more the other chap speaks (Hunt) the more wise he seems, well compared to Boris anyway.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 09:16PM

paddy power offering 2:1 on no deal, 1 to 3 on anything else . In fairness theyve not been wrong so far .

the weary wisdom seems to be that the clown car has to make a few circuits of the big top first before reality comes out to play

Strazdas · 22-07-2019 09:31PM

Jazmine Big Dragonfly wrote: »

^Yes, (fx rate jump) might well simply be the very 1st and most immediate effect of announcement tommorow, and another 24hr uncertain wait before taking office and fully announcing his team on Weds.
The second, will be more pressure (this time from the EU) on an alternative to the backstop (of course there isn't any real alternative).

The more the other chap speaks (Hunt) the more wise he seems, well compared to Boris anyway.

I've said it before, the backstop being scrapped means a hard border is a certainty.

If the UK leaves the SMCU forever, is now an ex-EU member and 'third country', what possible incentive would there be for them do anything to solve the border question?

Joe_ Public · 22-07-2019 09:32PM

Just watching Sajid Javid get grilled by Yvette Cooper at a home affairs committee sitting today. She's asking him about the magical technological solutions for the N.Ireland border that Sajid has been waxing lyrically about. Trust me, he says, i've seen them and they work and will be ready to roll within 2-3 years as long as the other side cooperates with us. Ok, she says, give me some examples. Well, er, um....there's the trusted trader system, he says, and then there's some waffle about intelligence gathering, neither of which, she thinks, suggests much by way of new technological innovations. In the end, after a number of attempts to get some examples out of him, he helpfully suggests that he'll go away and talk to some people and then write to her, providing some examples.

It's like they're dealing with children with some of this stuff. This guy wanted to be leader of his country for pity's sake!

Nody · 22-07-2019 09:33PM

Strazdas wrote: »

If the UK leaves the SMCU forever, is now an ex-EU member and 'third country', what possible incentive would there be for them do anything to solve the border question?

About 50% of their trade do sound like a pretty good incitement as a starting point (remember the trade deal etc. will be dependent on the 3 issues from the WA being resolved or EU will simply point to them and wait).

Frank Bullitt · 22-07-2019 09:43PM

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1153351348756369408

I live in Vancouver which has a boarder with the USA. Not a chance in hell you would call it frictionless in the slightest. How he was allowed to say this and not get called on it is beyond a joke.

If I tried to go to America the same way people go to NI from ROI right now, I'd be in a cage with a bag over my head.

A Shropshire Lad · 22-07-2019 09:44PM

Its a disgrace that Boris will be elected PM without being properly scrutinised about his plans for Brexit. He comes out with random stuff and there he never seems to get put under real questioning about the realities.

Maybe there is just a general lack of good interviewers, or a general lack of interest in the details. Peoples attention spans are short now, perhaps the quick soundbite and hair ruffle is what the public prefer !

I think it will be a sad day for the UK when Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, but I suppose we get the leaders we deserve.

BonnieSituation · 22-07-2019 09:44PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I've said it before, the backstop being scrapped means a hard border is a certainty.

If the UK leaves the SMCU forever, is now an ex-EU member and 'third country', what possible incentive would there be for them do anything to solve the border question?

The legally binding part of the GFA that makes a UI a future solution.

Strazdas · 22-07-2019 09:45PM

Nody wrote: »

About 50% of their trade do sound like a pretty good incitement as a starting point (remember the trade deal etc. will be dependent on the 3 issues from the WA being resolved or EU will simply point to them and wait).

A considerable number of the current hard Brexiteers are saying they don't even want a future trade deal (ie. they want No Deal)

BonnieSituation · 22-07-2019 09:45PM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Its a disgrace that Boris will be elected PM without being properly scrutinised about his plans for Brexit. He comes out with random stuff and there he never seems to get put under real questioning about the realities.

Maybe there is just a general lack of good interviewers, or a general lack of interest in the details. Peoples attention spans are short now, perhaps the quick soundbite and hair ruffle is what the public prefer !

Maybe he means the border at Point Roberts?

Strazdas · 22-07-2019 09:47PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The legally binding part of the GFA that makes a UI a future solution.

Johnson is threatening to default on the £39bn as we speak.......

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-07-2019 09:48PM

trellheim wrote: »

paddy power offering 2:1 on no deal, 1 to 3 on anything else . In fairness theyve not been wrong so far .

the weary wisdom seems to be that the clown car has to make a few circuits of the big top first before reality comes out to play

No deal seems likely, however that market is specifc to 2019 only. Indeed another few laps in the clown car might mean another GE, or time extension for more juggling performances into 2020 (and beyond).

Nody · 22-07-2019 09:52PM

Strazdas wrote: »

A considerable number of the current hard Brexiteers are saying they don't even want a future trade deal (ie. they want No Deal)

Well strictly speaking what they do say is that don't want the current deal but expects instead to be allowed to cut a series of micro deals on a per issue basis instead (also known as cherry picking). They keep insisting on the no deal because they think it will scare EU to change the deal if they are plucky enough and I'll be honest come 31st Oct. I'm very curious how many brexiteers who will really back a no deal, hard crash out, brexit in the end. Now I do believe that some really want that but it's for more personal reasons (i.e. vulture funds offering lucrative jobs after they leave etc. as a return for the faovur) but they can't really state "I want to UK to crash out so I can make millions" as an argument for such a stand.

Frank Bullitt · 22-07-2019 09:53PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Maybe he means the border at Point Roberts?

Even that boarder is a nightmare, and you have to go into the immigration hut for a little chat with the edgy boarder guards.

BonnieSituation · 22-07-2019 09:56PM

Gintonious wrote: »

Even that boarder is a nightmare, and you have to go into the immigration hut for a little chat with the edgy boarder guards.

Well, you don't "have to". But you should

lawred2 · 22-07-2019 10:04PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1153351348756369408

I live in Vancouver which has a boarder with the USA. Not a chance in hell you would call it frictionless in the slightest. How he was allowed to say this and not get called on it is beyond a joke.

If I tried to go to America the same way people go to NI from ROI right now, I'd be in a cage with a bag over my head.

I've sat in queues on both sides of that border between the US and Canada. It bears no resemblance whatever to Ireland/NI.

Sam Russell · 22-07-2019 10:12PM

lawred2 wrote: »

I've sat in queues on both sides of that border between the US and Canada. It bears no resemblance whatever to Ireland/NI.

People are not effected by the NI border because of the CTA.

The border is concerned with goods - SM standards, CU tariffs, and agricuture prducts - also VAT controls.

That cannot be seamless no matter what tehnology is used. they cannot inspect a heiffer for hormoes or BSE or a chicken for pathegens disguised by chlorine washing without actual inspecting the animal by a Vet.

Even a sea border is only likely to be effective with significant good will on both sides.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments